What's your predictions for the Q1 Call?

[Kanadei]

Because if it's not growing it's stagnating. That's why it needs to grow. It isn't far from bleeding subs, it actually is on a trend of loosing subscribers. It's not about greed, it's just about the trend.

Yes the game is chronologically old. Doesn't mean it has to feel old. It can and should be rejuvenated.

Yes you keep saying so. But why? I don't see any reason why they should risk a tried and tested formula which has resulted in the biggest subscription game in the world just to combat a little bit of subscriber trickle off after nearly 9 years on the market.

Maybe once subs drop to 6 or 7 mill it might be time for a radical change (which would likely be a last grasp or death rattle anyway) but as it is this old game is trucking along better than anyone could expect it would in its lifecycle, and better than any game which has never adjusted their subscription pricing has any right to be.

[Conscious]

Maybe once subs drop to 6 or 7 mill it might be time for a radical change (which would likely be a last grasp or death rattle anyway) but as it is this old game is trucking along better than anyone could expect it would in its lifecycle, and better than any game which has never adjusted their subscription pricing has any right to be.

They're not going to wait until subs drop below Vanilla levels.

Keep in mind Blizzard is probably looking to transition as much of this audience as they possibly can, onto Titan.

Subscription preservation is probably tantamount right now.

[Kanadei]

They're not going to wait until subs drop below Vanilla levels.

Keep in mind Blizzard is probably looking to transition as much of this audience as they possibly can, onto Titan.

Subscription preservation is probably tantamount right now.

Oh I agree, and I was throwing those numbers out there as a point of reference more than anything else.

Still, do you see them vastly shaking things up if they drop another 1.5 mil or so and are sitting around 8?

As for Titan, that's pretty up in the air. Sure, a lot of the same audience is likely to take part, but a complete transition? We don't even know if it will be a similar game yet or appeal on any of the same levels besides the fact that its an mmo.

Subscription preservation by and large is what Blizzard is good at. They don't need the growth, and they can afford to lose a million here and there (its laughable but true) as long as they keep performing year after year. I don't think we are at a place yet where we are "bleeding subs" or need to consider drastic options, by and large WoW is still a run away success.

[Nimitzles]

I have just made a post recently, I don't think there has been a drop in players but I do feel there has been a drop in raiders. Players are much more content just to play casually now.

[savvasp]

I rarely if ever see anyone cry that WoW is dead. I only see people bitching about those that say WoW is dead really...

OT: Around the same numbers really

[Seranthor]

It doesn't have to be all. That's a ludicrous standard on your part and frankly when I said everyone if you took it as literally meaning everyone then that's your problem. It was obviously not meant to be everyone except in so far as for all intents and purposes it is virtually everyone. Your inability to understand the subtleties of the english language is not my concern, nor is your investment record.

Some one has to tell me why I shouldn't take a sub loss as evidence that mists is a crappy product when the corollary would apply. You would do it for virtually any other service or product.

if it was OBVIOUSLY not meant to be everyone, then you probably shouldn't have said it... Since, OBVIOUSLY you didn't mean it, and you didnt mean to be able to back it up....

I HAVE explained my position, quite clearly.

[Kanadei]

I have just made a post recently, I don't think there has been a drop in players but I do feel there has been a drop in raiders. Players are much more content just to play casually now.

Assuming raiders = people who raid things other than LFR then I'm pretty sure that's a given.

LFR effectively halved the raiding population, stripping away everyone who just wanted to see the content and leaving us with people who either have so much time that they virtually have to raid or think they are ready for heroic raiding before they are even full epic.

And the occasional few who actually know their skill level and play to it.

[Deleted]

around 1-2 millions subs lost. arena pass has expired, i canceled first day when cancel button was available. reason : class inbalance

[MoanaLisa]

Keep in mind Blizzard is probably looking to transition as much of this audience as they possibly can, onto Titan.

Have to wait and see what Titan's revenue model actually is to know whether or not that's really true. Marketing matters and when we get within six months of a Titan launch that will be mostly all you ever hear about as far as ads, etc. No argument that retention is important to Blizzard though although it would be important whether or not there was a Titan out there.

Personally, I think they'll make it as attractive as possible to subscribe to both games if Titan has a subscription model attached to it. I'm not convinced that it will. I've always doubted the "Blizzard wants to kill WoW" or alternately "Blizzard won't care about WoW after Titan launches" thing. Mostly because it doesn't make any sense. Blizzard is plenty large enough to run two AAA MMO's. Just because no one else does it or has never really done it doesn't mean anything.

[Deleted]

Keep in mind Blizzard is probably looking to transition as much of this audience as they possibly can, onto Titan

with absolutely no evidence to back it up at all...

[Chrno]

Assuming raiders = people who raid things other than LFR then I'm pretty sure that's a given.

LFR effectively halved the raiding population, stripping away everyone who just wanted to see the content and leaving us with people who either have so much time that they virtually have to raid or think they are ready for heroic raiding before they are even full epic.

And the occasional few who actually know their skill level and play to it.

LFR is likely the reason so many raiding guilds just exploded into thin air.
Many people just don't see the reason to keep progressing through normal raids. The pool in wich you could find decent raiders seems to have halved.

That being said, most of the ex-raiders still play to fool arround

[But I Hate You All]

What makes you say that? I would have thought that the realm mergers were a result of population decline and that they would not have an effect on the sub numbers.

Well correct me if I am wrong but the huge decline in asia started within the past 3 mo?

[Osmeric]

Well correct me if I am wrong but the huge decline in asia started within the past 3 mo?

They were commenting on the decline in Asia (in Q4 2012) at the last conference call.

[mvaliz]

Ding ding ding, we have a winner! But seriously, do people really have so little else going on that this is worth contemplation?

I think one could say that about ANY form of World of Warcraft debating. From class theorycrafting specs to arguing about Casuals vs Hardcores.

In fact... one could argue that about pretty much ANYTHING entertainment-based really. :P

---------- Post added 2013-05-01 at 07:45 PM ----------

They're not going to wait until subs drop below Vanilla levels.

Keep in mind Blizzard is probably looking to transition as much of this audience as they possibly can, onto Titan.

Subscription preservation is probably tantamount right now.

Honestly if that was their plan (which I doubt) they would NOT start right now.

Regardless of whatever we think - ANY form of idea of transitioning from one thing/system/ect to another is ALWAYS filled with risk.

In short: I doubt even Blizzard would be stupid enough to even START to phase out WoW BEFORE Titan was well established and makes as much, if not more, money than WoW currently does.

The idea would be to have them (WoW players) transition RIGHT NOW DIRECTLY from WoW to Titan BEFORE they even consider jumping onto another MMO or other game.

...IF that was their idea or plan... of course. Again, I seriously doubt it would be their plan at this stage... :P

[Crym]

I consume Blizz's product, thats the sum total of my relatioship with them. I don't follow Audi's results and obsess over their sales figures because I drive one.

But if less people are driving the model you are it obviously means that model is no longer good!

[Pann]

if any change, id say a bump up in subs due to 5.2. and 5.3 is going to be a great patch, but not sure it will live up to 5.2 (raids) and what everyone and their mother is waiting for; 5.4 SoO. so for now, maybe around 10-20K increase. but im just some dude on the internet. probably wrong.

What did 5.2 have to offer that would increase subs? A raid which has the lowest level of participation seen? A daily hub that only 20%-30% of people that visited the Isle of Thunder bothered to complete just one quest? Or a LFR that has suffered from repeated complaints about loot and difficulty? Subs didn't increase in Q4 despite the launch of MOP in China and 5.1 in the West as well as Christmas, I see the subs only going one way this quarter and I would not be surprised if they are close to pre-MOP numbers.

Well correct me if I am wrong but the huge decline in asia started within the past 3 mo?

I thought you might have heard something that I had not. They have said pretty much every quarterly call that the majority of subs were lost in the East and I don't think that they would react that quickly is the subs were only lost in past three months. I have also heard rumours that there have been complaints that the mergers are long overdue although I cannot say whether this is true or not.

[Warloff]

WoW has lost 10 million people. I have undeniable proof.

The boxed copy of the starter edition says come play the game over "20 million people have played!" on the front.

As we know, the last subscriber numbers are 9.6 million.

This means WoW has lost 10.4 million players.

No doubt an effect of Warhammer killing it.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

1. WoW subs are notably down. Probably 500-750k. My basis for this is in the sudden rush Blizzard is in to get out of MoP and to roll back most of the design changes made to endgame gearing.

2. Revenue is up because it always is.

3. Release date for Hearthstone (if we don't have one already). No mention of a D3 or WoW expansion, both will be at Blizzcon.

---------- Post added 2013-05-01 at 04:40 PM ----------

They're not going to wait until subs drop below Vanilla levels.

Keep in mind Blizzard is probably looking to transition as much of this audience as they possibly can, onto Titan.

Subscription preservation is probably tantamount right now.

I doubt they'll force everyone onto Titan by ending WoW, but I do agree they want to keep subs up.

Problem is they refuse to acknowledge the reason subs went down is because people want a challenging but not outright grindy game. Cata was about going super hard, then super easy, now MoP is about grindy.

[Pann]

Problem is they refuse to acknowledge the reason subs went down is because people want a challenging but not outright grindy game. Cata was about going super hard, then super easy, now MoP is about grindy.

Whilst I agree that people do not a want a grindy game, ToT is probably one of the most challenging raid tiers released it is, also, the tier with the least players participating in organised raiding.

[MoanaLisa]

Whilst I agree that people do not a want a grindy game, ToT is probably one of the most challenging raid tiers released it is, also, the tier with the least players participating in organised raiding.

That's a very good point. It's no secret where some, perhaps most, of the missing raiders went: LFR.

That in itself is something of an inconvenient fact for anyone who wants to argue that most people want a challenging game. So even at the level of normal and heroic raiding it's difficult to see that making things more difficult, even though that might be 'better' according to some definitions, is anything that will grow that particular niche in the game. Nonetheless a variety of difficulties so that many more can participate--including LFR--will be good for getting future raids designed and into the game.

To relate this to the actual thread topic: I don't know if that's enough to keep people around. However common sense would lead one to think that more access to more things is going to be better for retention over the long run than working on a model that's based on restricting access.