Using the loss of subscribers as an argument to get their proposed features in.

[Deleted]

I've noticed the most common argument when an interview gets heated is "but you did that and you lost subscribers" as one can again see on the questionnaire on the front page. Quite the non sequitur there considering not only they do not have the information to reach that conclusion in such a specialized and targeted manner, but most importantly, there is overwhelming evidence the fall of wow popularity is inevitable if one spectates the google trends page for 'wow'. Notice they openly admit it when they say "we always lost subscribers anyway". The obvious reality is that with even the same quality or even increased quality of releases, wow is losing subscribers because there is always new competition, and let's face it, the main reason wow took off in 2005, was because it was the perfect time for the right game, not a lot of other games were into the scene. You have to either extremely increase quality which is practically impossible or completely reboot the franchise if you want renewed popularity. I think most new gamers get scared on the mere thought of having to install a ton of expansions even if theoretically it has become very easy. They do not know that though, they are not experienced in the game. Even a reboot may not be too successful since there is new competition now. It appears the game can only steadily decline in popularity or at best be propped up to about 10 to 15% of its peak popularity around the wotlk release, as one can see on google trends by searching 'wow'.

[Envojus]

You are 100% right. Blizzard is a big company. It does research extensively. They have a lot of data, they have a lot of focus groups.

Look at the product life cycle (Google it). We are in the stage of decline. The only thing expansions will do is just prolong the process.

Funny thing is, players are not that elastic to changes in WoW. The community makes it look like they are (Paladin nerfed, unsubscribed), but in reality, the only big factor is content. There is a reason why Subscription number fall at the end of the expansion or between patches, and they return when they are released. This is the reason on why Blizzard wants to push out content much quicker. Sure, the majority of people are happy about it, good PR. However, the reasoning for why they are doing this is not so noble. I don't know the data for it, but I can imagine people unsubscribe from WoW in around 2-3 months after the release of a new patch (I am pulling these numbers out of my ass). So if Blizzard pushes out content faster, there won't be a window of opportunity for WoW players to unsubscribe.

This is pretty much what Blizzard is doing at the moment. They won't expand their product in to different market segments. It will be all about retaining current subscribers. Look at current WoW banner advertisements - They are advertising patches, clearly targeting previous WoW players.

[Grimble]

In the end, as I've said everywhere else, nobody plays forever and the number of people who will ever want to play is not infinite.

[Deleted]

You are 100% right. Blizzard is a big company. It does research extensively. They have a lot of data, they have a lot of focus groups.

Look at the product life cycle (Google it). We are in the stage of decline. The only thing expansions will do is just prolong the process.

Funny thing is, players are not that elastic to changes in WoW. The community makes it look like they are (Paladin nerfed, unsubscribed), but in reality, the only big factor is content. There is a reason why Subscription number fall at the end of the expansion or between patches, and they return when they are released. This is the reason on why Blizzard wants to push out content much quicker. Sure, the majority of people are happy about it, good PR. However, the reasoning for why they are doing this is not so noble. I don't know the data for it, but I can imagine people unsubscribe from WoW in around 2-3 months after the release of a new patch (I am pulling these numbers out of my ass). So if Blizzard pushes out content faster, there won't be a window of opportunity for WoW players to unsubscribe.

This is pretty much what Blizzard is doing at the moment. They won't expand their product in to different market segments. It will be all about retaining current subscribers. Look at current WoW banner advertisements - They are advertising patches, clearly targeting previous WoW players.

My own investigation on google trends shows that the decline from a peak around wotlk's release has now reached about 20% of that peak. Since that is already quite low, it may not drop completely to the abyss and it is possible that new expansions will keep propping it up to about 10-15% popularity of its old peak. Though I do not know if that is sustainable. e.g. its realms are dying and they do not appear to be supporting its current level of decline, hence all those 'connected realms' features (and LFR and shared areas etc.).

[Deleted]

Well if that is the case then it is all the more reason to give what the crowd wants. They are going to leave anyway, so why not make them smile when they leave?

[Deleted]

I'm thinking the only chance of wow might be - even though it might still be futile - to completely reboot the game to "World of Warcraft" period. Zero expansions. That way new gamers will just get a new game and old ones will keep getting everything with a monthly fee.

Right now: Old players: "Pay a "bigger monthly fee" every 1.5 years to level up". They could avoid it with just going monthly.

New players: "What is that? This game has 650 expansions, I'll never make it alive.". Even if of course it's extremely easy to install them all nowadays, they do not know that, and they will never know that enough with any advertising campaign.

[Strangewayes]

You are 100% right. Blizzard is a big company. It does research extensively. They have a lot of data, they have a lot of focus groups.

Look at the product life cycle (Google it). We are in the stage of decline. The only thing expansions will do is just prolong the process.

Funny thing is, players are not that elastic to changes in WoW. The community makes it look like they are (Paladin nerfed, unsubscribed), but in reality, the only big factor is content.

Actually, I left due to the LACK of change. Having new content is all fine and good. But New PVP BG's don't really make a difference to me when the underlying mechanics changes haven't happened. Maybe the are just too afraid of 'alienating' players due to change. Typical low-risk company mindset.

[Lynneiah]

I'll just randomly state here that WoW is still twice as big as its next two competitors put together and move on...

[Deleted]

Market research, have you seen those mini dancing ads they have, what demographic are they meant to be catering too, how do you introduce the game to someone who is not a child where the official advert media is a bunch of dancing anthropomorphs, my sister had Sylvanian families, maybe I should get her into it. And the old cameo adverts with Mr T, ozzy and about 5 years later after the barrens chat jokes died chuck. All failing at pretending they know how to play the game badly and there 'in game' shots showing stuff that isn't in game 'chucks model and fighting tactics. they need a new 'research' team.

[Envojus]

People exaggurate when they say "Blizzard does a lot of market research," ... they might do some sure, but in many companies this market research is very superficial and they usually can't be arsed to put a lot of resources or money on it. Business leaders tend to be arrogant like that, in the sense that they often believe that it's their own personal vision that made the product popular and that any form of 'scientific, cold data' would be unable to grasp that certain something that made their product popular.

True. A lot of companies have marketing departments for the sake of having a marketing department, and not making full use of it (Seriously, even big companies. Some marketing campaigns just make me scratch my head). However, in Blizzard, I don't think it's the case. Being public, investors love the cold, hard data. I don't know the corporate culture in the US, but I can imagine Corporate PR Bullshit is not enough. And hey, Data is always fun, and Blizzard get's a lot of 'free' data just from players playing the game. It's not as difficult or expensive as doing a research on some trivial topics. Developers have admitted that almost every aspect of the game is being backed by data (Heck, look at the Timeless Isle interview).

And it's funny seeing all these doomsayers talking about the end of the World (Of Warcraft...). It's ironical, because these people are the most loyal to the brand and are the least likely segment to unsubscribe . You have to give Blizzard credit - I can't think of any other Gaming company having such an active community.

[Lynneiah]

Market research, have you seen those mini dancing ads they have, what demographic are they meant to be catering too, how do you introduce the game to someone who is not a child where the official advert media is a bunch of dancing anthropomorphs, my sister had Sylvanian families, maybe I should get her into it. And the old cameo adverts with Mr T, ozzy and about 5 years later after the barrens chat jokes died chuck. All failing at pretending they know how to play the game badly and there 'in game' shots showing stuff that isn't in game 'chucks model and fighting tactics. they need a new 'research' team.

It's entirely possible those ads were made by an advertising company, which aren't always the most in-touch of entities. If you want Blizzard's own advertising, take a look at their trailers and cinematics, which generally are pretty spot-on.

[Hightotemz]

I wonder what the sub numbers would of been today if 10s and 25s weren't made equal. I have a feeling that change destroyed a lot of big communities on servers. I believe wow kept it's subs for longer because of the social part of the game and 10 man guilds with all due respect don't offer much social side outside of raids. Which means more raid logging and less activity overall. This would of caused socials/casuals to quit the game a lot faster.

Fact is LFR, LFD etc etc didnt drop the subs. When they made the change to 10s and 25s it did as so many guilds started downsizing. Realms where 25 man raiding is still thriving like Kazzak/Draenor EU they are still very high pop. Outland EU is a very good example of whats going to happen to a realm now that all the 25s are gone.

[Cyrops]

I'm thinking the only chance of wow might be - even though it might still be futile - to completely reboot the game to "World of Warcraft" period. Zero expansions. That way new gamers will just get a new game and old ones will keep getting everything with a monthly fee.

Right now: Old players: "Pay a "bigger monthly fee" every 1.5 years to level up". They could avoid it with just going monthly.

New players: "What is that? This game has 650 expansions, I'll never make it alive.". Even if of course it's extremely easy to install them all nowadays, they do not know that, and they will never know that enough with any advertising campaign.

Why does everyone want to play Vanilla WoW? I played it, it _was_ awesome back in 2004. But in 2013 and further, the game would be horrible to say the least. 2 years for blizzard to admit 'oh yea there is a bug with dual wielding'. Yea I prefer for the game to keep moving forward.

5.4 is by far the most fun patch to date.
My personal opinion.

[Espe]

I wonder what the sub numbers would of been today if 10s and 25s weren't made equal.

10s and 25s will never be equal. 10s take much, much more executional responsibility per person. The mechanics do not scale up evenly to 25s so they will always be easier.

You can't carry dead weight through 10m progression. There is a reason no 10m version of LFR exists.

In 25s you can afford to have a few deaths and you can even pull if you're backfilling a few players. Both really make you stop in your tracks on 10s. In 25, it's easier to fade back into the group if you're still not 100% confident in what you're doing. In 10s, it's harder to be a wallflower.

So let's just cut that weak argument of yours down to size before the other 25m mouthbreathers get here.

[Vaelorian]

While I agree with the OP and some other posters here - I wonder how well blizzard is able to translate the data they have and know they are on the right track when putting a feature into the game.

Yes this has been done to death but here goes:

- LFR
- Dailies (a few is fine)
- LFD (crossrealm)
- flying

And loads of other convenience things.

When things are used a lot does it mean that it is fun? Is it an improvement to the game? Does it make players happy? While I am sure many of the things I listed are popular and some might even find them a real addition to the game... was it in the players interest to have these things? Most of these things just improve QoL and wrecked something else.

Again I will put the following example:
- If Blizzard puts a chest in your factions capital with 100% heroic gear fully enchanted/gemmed and reforged perfectly to your character for free, how popular would that chest be? According to Blizzards logic, this feature would be FUN because it is popular. Just like the examples I gave.

And while I feel all those features have a place in WoW nowadays (because that is the course Blizzard took with the game, can't imagine suddenly not being able to fly for example), are these decisions the right ones?

I feel LFR as a difficulty mode has it's place now. But when it wasn't there yet, specifically - preCata how "awful" of a time did the player have? I saw so many posts on these boards and official forums that people did not really miss out or did not feel they missed out. Sure some people did feel like that but apparantly not THAT many people.

The mistake Blizzard makes imo is that when they see something is done a lot, it must be fun! But in all honesty the only thing they can safely conclude is that it is atleast popular. It might be the most efficient way to gain something later. Did that player have fun to acquire valor (for example) to later transform it into an epic? Did the player have fun grinding for multiple reputations via dailies? Players that loved to use a groundmount are now sort of forced to use flying mounts else they get nowhere fast. You can choose to not use a flying mount ofcourse. But people forget that the game changed towards flying mounts. It is built on the idea that everyone has a flying mount. So running around on your groundmount now basically is something of the past. I am not asking that we should quit flying btw. It is just not possible anymore to go without flying. People also want to take the path of the least resistance. Thats inherent in human nature. So either we as players are forced to use groundmounts again or no one will. But this won't happen and should not happen anymore.

edit: I am not interested in discussing the named examples I gave. I am interested in talking about how Blizzard could possibly know how to translate the data they have into a fun factor

[Envojus]

It's entirely possible those ads were made by an advertising company, which aren't always the most in-touch of entities. If you want Blizzard's own advertising, take a look at their trailers and cinematics, which generally are pretty spot-on.

I disagree entirely. The Mr. T advertisement was released BEFORE wrath of the Lich King. And do you know what? Wrath of the Lich King was the most successful expansion in WoW's history. Yes, you can't give their marketing all of the credit, since Arthas and the entire storyline brought a lot of WC3 players. HOWEVER, you can't deny the fact that Blizzard has been diversifying their product, introducing it to other segments. And apparently, their biggest segment has an affinity to Pop culture references and an affinity to Orc, dancing like MC Hammer.

IMHO this is the real reason of why WOTLK was so popular. And why it has been dropping ever since. I don't like using the word Casual, but I will use it for clarity sake. Once you bring a casual player, you have a few possible outcomes : the casual player transitions in to a "hardcore" player, the casual player continues playing, or, after a few months, the player will burn out and quit. He saw the content that he wanted to and that's it. When you think about it, turning a casual player in to a hardcore player is the most difficult thing to do out of those three.

[Hightotemz]

10s and 25s will never be equal. 10s take much, much more executional responsibility per person. The mechanics do not scale up evenly to 25s so they will always be easier.

You can't carry dead weight through 10m progression. There is a reason no 10m version of LFR exists.



So let's just cut that weak argument of yours down to size before the other 25m mouthbreathers get here.

Did you even read what I posted. It had nothing to do with difficulty of the raids themselves but the fact that 10man raiding excluded a lot of other people and the social side of 10man raiding guilds is dead compared to that of 25s and larger communities.

[Lynneiah]

I disagree entirely. The Mr. T advertisement was released BEFORE wrath of the Lich King. And do you know what? Wrath of the Lich King was the most successful expansion in WoW's history. Yes, you can't give their marketing all of the credit, since Arthas and the entire storyline brought a lot of WC3 players. HOWEVER, you can't deny the fact that Blizzard has been diversifying their product, introducing it to other segments. And apparently, their biggest segment has an affinity to Pop culture references and an affinity to Orc, dancing like MC Hammer.

IMHO this is the real reason of why WOTLK was so popular. And why it has been dropping ever since. I don't like using the word Casual, but I will use it for clarity sake. Once you bring a casual player, you have a few possible outcomes : the casual player transitions in to a "hardcore" player, the casual player continues playing, or, after a few months, the player will burn out and quit. He saw the content that he wanted to and that's it. When you think about it, turning a casual player in to a hardcore player is the most difficult thing to do out of those three.

I was mainly talking about the dancing panda adverts you see on sites as banners and stuff. The Mister T. style ads were actually kind of funny.

Overal, I don't think the decline in subs isn't really the result of any one decision, but rather the result of the passage of time. WoW's an old game. People quit and move on, and less new people feel enamored enough by, again, a really old game enough to stick around.
And even so, as I said before, WoW is still the largest tripple-A MMO out there by a significant margin.

[Phasma]

If World of Warcraft 2 ever came to be, it would probably be the best selling MMO of all time. Blizzard has established themselves as a top competitor and now they can do whatever they want. It's kind of like being a top athlete in a sport for a time and falling off. People still respect and watch for you.

[Deleted]

the social side of 10man raiding guilds is dead compared to that of 25s and larger communities.

How do you figure that?

Most guilds have a social side to them, people who aren't raiders who join for the perks (and to top up the guild bank for raiders repairs..) and whatever else is organised outside of progression raids?