2014 is going to be a harsh year for World of Warcraft

[jaakkeli]

2014 will likely be a good year for WoW as the release of WoD will bring back a lot of people.

Eventually, some MMO will overtake WoW in a sub based model.

Or a properly designed f2p model. So far on the Western market f2p has been for mini budget indie games and big budget games that failed as subs but in Asia Age of Wushu has already overtaken WoW with a f2p model.

A f2p model that's designed properly and integrated with the game from the start should work a lot better than converting a sub game. I think it's strange how WoW has reigned in MMOs when the rest of the internet is a story of free services trampling over sub models (think Youtube, Google, Twitter, Facebook etc, all these had sub fee competition which failed miserably).

[mistahwilshire]

I am not impressed with Wildstar...

Same. I really don't get the hype at all. The game looks incredibly average.

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I think it's pretty impossible to claim, in a credible manner, that WoW isn't going to have a very rough year in 2014.

Wether Wildstar, ESO, EverQuest Next will be the next big thing or not doesn't matter nearly as much as the fact that they'll be new AAA-quality MMO titles on the market. And that some of them have game engines which will make WoW look and feel like an old rusted car again. I'd be surprised if each of them wouldn't manage to take away at least each 1 million subscribers for a good while from WoW, if not more.

Maybe 2014 will be the year in which we'll see subscriber numbers along the line of:
- WoW: 3 million
- Wildstar: 2 million
- ESO: 1 million
- EverQuest Next: 2 million

Just a rough but reasonable estimate.

WoW's sub numbers have never ever dropped 50% or more in a year. This will absolutely not happen. It's not even close to a reasonable estimate. 5 million by the end of the year is a reasonable estimate. WoD is highly favored right now in the industry despite a very small vocal minority on sites such as this (even here though the favoring posters heavily outweigh the negative). It would take an absolutely INSANE decline completely out of nowhere and never before seen in this industry for WoW's subs to fall 4.6 million in the next 12 months.

And there's simply nothing more to say to 2 million on Wildstar than "lol". Same with EQN after the first month or two. It's already seen a very negative light overall.

[intrinsc]

I'd say that Rift and SWTOR were supposed to be WoW killers on the level of, or worse, than ESO and Wildstar are purported to be.

[Apolaan]

man ive been reading this thread. and i just cant believe how many people that haven't played ESO yet are trying to defend it. while so many others have and agree that it is horrible. is literally the worst game ive ever played in the MMO genre(and i played ff14 before the remake). it doesn't feel TES at all, it feels like like a void like mmo that has TES scenery with buggy combat(yes beta is beta, but HOLY CRAP 3 months to launch LOL).

[intrinsc]

It also never got hammered before by three simultaneous quality releases. If anything people will start seeing all these new fancy titles, give them a try and realize that they all offer something that WoW is missing and get bored with the MMO genre in general because they can't get the awesome feature of next-gen MMO A, B and C all in the same game.

Honestly. Some people in the video game industry are predicting an even worse scenario for Blizzard for the year 2014. My estimate was pretty generous.

WoW doesn't even need to lose subscribers for the other games to become heavy competition. There's tens of millions of online gamers out there who haven't touched an MMO since WotLK or Cataclysm and who are now eagerly waiting for something new to come out, because they just don't want to touch WoW anymore. In other years they probably would've been tempted to come give the new WoW expansion a try, but in 2014 they won't have to, since they'll have plenty of choice of games with smoother gameplay, next-gen RPG features and fancier graphics.

Can you quote some of these "video game industry people" regarding these disastrous outcomes?

[Stormcall]

- Wildstar: 2 million

SWTOR didn't pull those numbers and it had an established, popular universe(Star Wars), semi-followup to another popular game(KotOR), and a well liked developer(Bioware) behind it....you seriously think it's a "reasonable" estimate Wildstar will manage that? LOL, okay mate. I guess it's also reasonable to assume that 2014 is the year we all finally get those flying cars the old sci-fi stories promised too.

[Sughs]

It also never got hammered before by three simultaneous quality releases.

3 quality releases?

I don't get what people see in EQ:N, WS and ESO. And yes i am up to date about those games. ESO looked cool in some demonstrations but the last few ones just made my interest fade away.

If i am excited about a game it's World of Darkness but it's not even sure that it will launch in 2014.


Another year dominated by blizzard, unhappily.

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Maybe 2014 will be the year in which we'll see subscriber numbers along the line of:
- WoW: 3 million
- Wildstar: 2 million
- ESO: 1 million
- EverQuest Next: 2 million

Just a rough but reasonable estimate.

That's not going to happen, someone correct me if i am wrong but after WoW i think the most successful game (talking about sub numbers) is Aion a few years ago with around 4 million subscribers. Not even SWTOR reached that and i don't think EQ, ESO or WS will as well. Maybe ESO if it was buy to play only just because of the "name".

And WoW is not dropping to 3M this year.

[Unclekreepy]

I've played TES .. not that great, nothing new.

and Wildstar seems like it will be dead a month after release.


and this is from someone that doesn't care about wow, I don't even play.

[Meintastic]

I will say it once and only once. There are only 2 MMO's that could possibly rival World of Warcraft.

Pokemon MMO, and .Hack MMO, and .Hack MMO has already been released and failed miserably, there is still the option of bringing a properly made one out once again, but it would have to be through Kickstarter, by fans for the fans.

The reason I say .Hack MMO instead of something like a Mass Effect or Resident Evil MMO is because the basis for a MMO is already in there.

Check:

Combat
Guild Housing
Arena
Pre-Existing Cities based around level barriers
A Keyword System that can be extremely complex should they choose to go that route
An already existing key backstory from the previous 7 games(8 if you include the X game)
The possibilty for an amazing pvp system based around hacking peoples games/areas(like Dark Souls) with a level limit(like Dark Souls)
Item Trading system
Vehicles

All these things are in the single player game already so it isn't like they would have to come up with brand new classes and start from scratch.

But it would have to again be done proper. None of this half-assing it. Get a proper team together and go full speed

[Stormcall]

Can you quote some of these "video game industry people" regarding these disastrous outcomes?

I'm curious about his math, too. There's "There's tens of millions of online gamers out there who haven't touched an MMO since WotLK or Cataclysm"? Tens of millions? As in multiple tens, of multiple millions, so...20 million people minimum? I may be wrong, but wasn't wow at 12 mil subs at it's very highest, and it's at...what, 7 million now? So it's lost 20 million people, but picked up 15 million along the way, for a net loss of 5 million?

[ro9ue]

Yeah it will be tough, maybe that slope will take a slightly sharper downturn, but WoW will survive because still, no one has a fresh perspective on the genre yet.

[Airwaves]

Sorry but Wildstar isn't even going to make a ding in wow armor. It is a game that's target isn't the type of people that play wow. As for elder scrolls... It might make a ding but not for long. It feels nothing like an elder scrolls game so people will play it for a few months then come back to wow.

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I'm curious about his math, too. There's "There's tens of millions of online gamers out there who haven't touched an MMO since WotLK or Cataclysm"? Tens of millions? As in multiple tens, of multiple millions, so...20 million people minimum? I may be wrong, but wasn't wow at 12 mil subs at it's very highest, and it's at...what, 7 million now? So it's lost 20 million people, but picked up 15 million along the way, for a net loss of 5 million?

At the peak of the 12 million blizzard said more people have played wow and left then currently play it. So it would be more upwards of 40/50 million people have played wow over the years.

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Yeah it will be tough, maybe that slope will take a slightly sharper downturn, but WoW will survive because still, no one has a fresh perspective on the genre yet.

Which mind you is rather depressing. Wow needs some competition to kick the devs back into gear. Especially that raid design team. They have started to lose the plot over the last few years.

[Deleted]

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Which mind you is rather depressing. Wow needs some competition to kick the devs back into gear. Especially that raid design team. They have started to lose the plot over the last few years.

What are you talking about? The past two raids have been the best since Wrath

[Archmage Alodi]

What are you talking about? The past two raids have been the best since Wrath

that's your opinion . many people don't think like that

[Queen of Hamsters]

that's your opinion . many people don't think like that

And that makes them the worst...? Many people do think that the past 2 raids have been truly epic...is our opinion somehow less valid than that of the negative people? Lol...

Honestly, if ToT and SoO can't count as great raids, then I do believe that the negative Nates are just being nostalgic for Ulduar or something, not looking at mechanics.

[Apolaan]

And that makes them the worst...? Many people do think that the past 2 raids have been truly epic...is our opinion somehow less valid than that of the negative people? Lol...

Honestly, if ToT and SoO can't count as great raids, then I do believe that the negative Nates are just being nostalgic for Ulduar or something, not looking at mechanics.

see I feel most people on forums aren't current players or recent players meaning during these two raid periods. it bugs me so much. because people think forums are even 1/10 of the population of a game... not even close when it comes to WoW. WoW forums are a horrible representation because it isn't a community driven game w/economy forums and etc.

[corebit]

I think Wildstar's 40 man raids are nothing but an appeal to nostalgia. The Wildstar devs' desire to go back to the days of vanilla WoW and hardcore raiding makes me think they are wearing rose-colored glasses a bit too much and may be out of touch with current playerbase. The MMO audience is a lot different now than 10 years ago.

ESO has been keeping its lips tight and revealed very little so far, which is worrying as they have barely 3 months of development time left. They have been hyping nothing else but Cyrodiil PVP which leads me to believe they have not much else to show. I'm afraid they will a pull a Bioware (remember when they hyped up the story at every interview opportunity?) and a lot of people will end up disappointed.

All in all, if I were Blizzard I wouldn't worry much. Besides, Diablo 3 RoS is coming in March. Hearthstone will be released very soon. A portion of players burnt out on WoW will likely be playing RoS or HS. It's still a win-win for Blizzard.

[Airwaves]

that's your opinion . many people don't think like that

Counting my entire 3 raid teams that got so bored with reused and old mechanics they all quit wow.

[the9tail]

ESO will be the next SWTOR. I think anyone who has half looked at the game can clearly see that.
Wildstar has some interesting quirks but I dont think it will effect subs.

I think what will effect subs is the lack of new character content in WoD. Previous expansions gave you a reason to roll an alt, even if it was to experience the new leveling experience of a new race or learning a new class. WoD robs players of that experience and makes it worse by making rolling an alt skip the first 90 levels.

I can only hope that the Rogue and Hunter changes, though not sweeping, is enough to refresh them.

[Haywire5714]

I think Wildstar's 40 man raids are nothing but an appeal to nostalgia. The Wildstar devs' desire to go back to the days of vanilla WoW and hardcore raiding makes me think they are wearing rose-colored glasses a bit too much and may be out of touch with current playerbase. The MMO audience is a lot different now than 10 years ago.

I don't think that the idea of 40 man raiding is a problem; if they can nail everything else like the holy trinity, class mechanics, boss mechanics, telegraphs, lore, aesthetics etc, then it should be fine.