The 1st quarter post WOD, what will the subs be at?

[docterfreeze]

I would've never known about WoW if not for their advertisements on TV. Wrath had great advertising and I feel confident in saying that how well their advertising is directly corrosponds to how many subs they get. Bringing in celebs was the best decision they made as far as ads though.

[zorkuus]

I would've never known about WoW if not for their advertisements on TV. Wrath had great advertising and I feel confident in saying that how well their advertising is directly corrosponds to how many subs they get. Bringing in celebs was the best decision they made as far as ads though.

There was a time they almost didn't even need advertisement. The thing spread through word of mouth like wildfire.

[Independent voter]

It will be at 8 million. You can bank on this.

[hrugner]

Probably back up to whatever it's at right now.

[willowe]

9 Million.

Why? Because if Pandas and Pokemon (easily the most ridiculed expansion!) could bring back a million, WoD could double it.

As a recruiting officer of a raiding Guild, I can say that there are tons of Level 85s coming back, those who skipped MoP because "Pandas Suck." I've been getting more, it seems, by the day, since they announced that they'll be announcing the Release Date on Thurs. I'd say returning 85s outnumber returning 90s, at this point....

[Tiberria]

I think a lot of people are way too optimistic about sub numbers and expecting things that are not supported historically. It's at 6.8 million now after an 800,000 drop. We know that WoD will not be out until at least October 14, so they have another full quarter (ends September 30) of likely sub declines. Yes, some people may come back for the pre-patch (likely before September 30), but I am suspecting by the end of Q3, there will be at least another 600,000 lost subs, and it will go into the expansion at 6.2 million.

Then, you have the new expansion bump. It has never been as big as people are exaggerating it to be. The MoP release only saw a 900,000 bump (from 9.1m to 10m), and it never even recovered to the level it was 3 quarters before. The Cata release didn't show a bump at all; it just maintained the sub count at 12m (granted that was at the peak of sub numbers).

Therefore, expecting a 1m+ bounce is not really reasonable. I would expect 500,000 to 1 million at most, and would estimate 700,000. As far as the next two quarters after the expansion, Cata saw a 600k drop followed by a 300k drop. MoP saw a 400k drop followed by a whopping 1.3 million drop. I am expecting about 500k drops in each of those quarters.

Therefore, my current projections.

Current - 6.8m
Q3 2014 - 6.2m
Q4 2014 - 6.9m
Q1 2015 - 6.4m
Q2 2015 - 5.9m

[Keyboard Champion]

8 mill as people who were tired of the MoP stale content will come back.

- - - Updated - - -

7.5, before it plummets faster than MoP and Cata combined.

*uses a Wildtanic avatar*

[zorkuus]

9 Million.

Why? Because if Pandas and Pokemon (easily the most ridiculed expansion!) could bring back a million, WoD could double it.

As a recruiting officer of a raiding Guild, I can say that there are tons of Level 85s coming back, those who skipped MoP because "Pandas Suck." I've been getting more, it seems, by the day, since they announced that they'll be announcing the Release Date on Thurs. I'd say returning 85s outnumber returning 90s, at this point....

On second thought I don't want to see an increase in subs. We're probably better off without people who skipped MoP just because they hate pandas.

[Dakara]

7-8 mil I'm guessing.

With the exception of Wrath to Cata (where subs stayed ~12mil) there's been a steady leap in sub numbers at expansion launch... around the order of 500k - 1mil Jump. But it's only been in Cata and MOP where the subs nose dive, especially near the end, so we may only see 7-7.5 mil.

Ultimately, I think one of the biggest mistakes of Cata and MOP is leaving us with no new content for so long. Vanilla had a re-vamped PVP system which kept loads of players happy farming epics (along with Naxx40 for raiders), TBC had Sunwell and a badge system + new 5 mans, Wrath had Halion (better than nothing), but Cata and MOP have just been a complete bore waiting for the expansion. Yes, we're getting a revamped MC in Nov, but it's too little too late. Lots of people who quit break the addiction and don't come back.... like scorned lovers!

[Srg56]

12.5 million. Yes i'm serious.

just throwing it out there, who knows lol

[Deleted]

5M tops. The reality check for poor fools who bought into the hype and drove the 1.5M prepurchase number should overcome investment bias.

[Tekkommo]

8 million sounds about right.

[Revak]

There was a time they almost didn't even need advertisement. The thing spread through word of mouth like wildfire.

I honestly think the game caught fire in late vanilla/TBC in part b/c of word of mouth but also b/c of the Southpark episode (which was fantastic advertising for them).

[Deleted]

Are we talking about first quarter after the quarter WoD was released in or the quarter it will be released in?

8 Million or above is very unlikey and far more than just optimistic either way. Such a growth never has occured in WoWs history besides the releases of WoW in China and Europe. The last expansions growth spurts could only be achieved after they pushed the release date in China much closer to the date in the West. But in return the decline is steeper after the release. Of course it is not impossible if Blizzard helps out with offers like drastic price cuts, new anual passes with rich rewards or a new form of the product (something like the introduction of the cash shop).

If WoD is released early in the quarter:
Up to 7.3 - 7.4 Million at peak
Down to 6.6 - 6.7 Million in the following quarter

If WoD is released at the end of the quarter:
Up to 7.0 Million in the same quarter
Up to 7.4 Million in the following quarter
Down to 6.6 Million in the second after

[Deleted]

9.5 mil at most

[Army Dreamer]

About 7.5 max.

[searges]

I have to wonder why people think SO many will come back when the historical data does not suggest that in any way.

statista. com/statistics/276601/number-of-world-of-warcraft-subscribers-by-quarter/

BC; January 2007 - Q4 '06 to Q1 '07 - Net Gain of 500k
WotLK; November 2008 - Q3 '08 to Q4 '08 - Net Gain of 500k
Cata; December 2010 - Q3 '10 to Q4 '10 - No net gain
MoP; September 2012 - Q2 '12 to Q3 '12 - Net Gain of 900k

Nowhere in the history of xpacs do they have a net gain of over 1 million, why in the world do people think subs would go from 6.8 to 8 for a net gain of over 1.2 million. It is just not anywhere in the numbers and people have too high of hopes. Sure I believe there will be a gain but not nearly as much as people think. Lets look at the raw data here folks.

[Conscious]

7 Million.

People keep forgetting we've still got another quarter to go, one that's most definitely going to have more losses and very possibly bring us into the five million range.

People thinking 8 or 9 million, well, wishful thinking at best.

[twh]

7 Million.

People keep forgetting we've still got another quarter to go, one that's most definitely going to have more losses and very possibly bring us into the five million range.

People thinking 8 or 9 million, well, wishful thinking at best.

Yep. around 7 million. By the end of WoD we'll probably be down to 4 to 4.5 million.

[BenBos]

7 Million.

People keep forgetting we've still got another quarter to go, one that's most definitely going to have more losses and very possibly bring us into the five million range.

People thinking 8 or 9 million, well, wishful thinking at best.

9,5 million. Just to annoy guys like you who put a link to a refund in their signatures.

Or how mentally sick some WoW haters really are ...

I think someone who puts a refund link in a fan forum of WoW should be banned for good. Such a poster simply has no place here. It is an insult to the fans, the game itself and its designers.