Second Quarter Reporting coming August 4th! Predictions

[Thage]

At least a million gone. A friend bought me a month of WoW time for an early birthday gift (for some reason; I appreciate the gesture, at least?) so I've been leveling a Death Knight and Wyrmrest Accord feels empty. So does Moon Guard. The two highest-population RP servers (which regularly filled up and needed a queue after Warlords' launch issues were cleared up) feel like ghost towns outside primetime.

I suspect heads are going to end up rolling before the dust from WoD settles.

[DeadmanWalking]

I don't know why you guys bother to post about sub predictions more than a month ahead of time, someone seriously sits around and thinks they need to get out in front of this one by an entire month? Time to get an actual hobby or go outside and meet actual people in the sunlight.

[ablib]

I don't know why you guys bother to post about sub predictions more than a month ahead of time, someone seriously sits around and thinks they need to get out in front of this one by an entire month? Time to get an actual hobby or go outside and meet actual people in the sunlight.

Sub prediction threads have been going for Q2 since Q1 since the numbers for 1 dropped almost 2 months ago. It's really annoying, and pointless to have 1 thread, let alone a ton. Wish mods would condense them into one thread.

[Aori]

Even Emerald Dream feels dead to me right now, in MoP server was bustling. Now the trolls don't even come out to play like they used too.

[Hitei]

Should we just draw pictures in our notebooks of Blizzard senpai and write our name with their last name attached instead?

Or, you know, post about something relevant instead of cluttering up the board with threads won't matter for a month, and even after that month will still be pretty pointless because another prediction thread will be made a few days before, like always.

[purebalance]

SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (Nasdaq: ATVI) intends to release its second quarter 2015 results after the close of the market on Tuesday, August 4, 2015. In conjunction with this release, Activision Blizzard will host a conference call that will be broadcast over the Internet.


My notes:

Even though blizzard stock has went from $14.5ish in the last 2 years to a high of $26 this year...
Despite Millons of players unsubscribe.

The spike was from Destiny oddly. I own stock in Activision and it actually went down to like 20 just before WoD and has ping ponged around 20/24 since WoD came out. So WoD has had pretty much 0 effect on stock from an outside glance. Now it may have grown from other things they have if it WEREN'T for WoD, but that's something we can't really say.

[3intrah]

I think the game will go down to about 2.5m subs by Q3 reporting time.

[Osmeric]

I think the game will go down to about 2.5m subs by Q3 reporting time.

Q3 will be bad. HFC will have worn out its welcome, and there's nothing much to keep people playing after that.

[purebalance]

My prediction is roughly 6 mil even subs...

Although after announcing flight's return...



lol...

Those spikes seem to be merely from the patch so nice failed attempt at relating it to flying.

[Kevyne-Shandris]

So while 6.2 may have stemmed the tide for raiders for a few months, say threeish, non-raiders should still be leaving at about the same rate.

Doubt it's the non-raiders leaving. I'm not raiding, and I've played WoD more than Cata and MoP now.

But if shipyards is the content we'll be seeing as "entertainment", that might change.

Most ideal time was just before 6.1, as the pet battles and followers had great synergy together. If 6.1 just added more pets to keep busy with, it would've been perfect for those off the gear roller coaster. Was really enjoying the pet menagerie and followers like that. If I got bored I went achievement grinding.

Now, I simply don't even want to login, as Blizzard changed the formula again ... do not enjoy the "no comfort zone" design philosophy. Like order, not the chaos of hurry up and wait, yet again.

[Stellan]

Personally what disturbs me most about the activity graph is the large number of Huntards playing.

*shudders*

Hunters are one of the few classes that can move around effectively in Tanaan Jungle. If you do a search in Tanaan you'll always see a lot of hunters, DKs and warriors. Mostly hunters.

[Deleted]

Hunters are one of the few classes that can move around effectively in Tanaan Jungle. If you do a search in Tanaan you'll always see a lot of hunters, DKs and warriors. Mostly hunters.

That's not the real reason, the real reason is that one of their specs is always severely overpowered during every single tier.

[Zenny]

I'd say around 7 million give or take a couple hundred thousand.

[Ursiel]

Estimating low: 5 million
Estimating high: 9 million
Based on the fact that it was down to around 7 million in quarter 2 or whenever.

[Conscious]

Yeah, I guess Blizzard has saved Q2 report. It's pretty much weird to see, that they are losing subs for entire quarter, only to save it at last week and then report it as great success. I guess, we'll never see real sub numbers.

May be in Q3, but Blizzard most likely will use another trick to avoid it.

Q2 is still going to be a loss.

The activity is on par with the bottomed out 3 million loss, so it's probably safe to say we're still looking at a 1.5 million -ish loss.

[Stellan]

Estimating low: 5 million
Estimating high: 9 million
Based on the fact that it was down to around 7 million in quarter 2 or whenever.

Really going out on a limb there, aren't you.

[Deleted]

Still gunna be losses that are hanging off the coat-tails of the dive we saw recently. Not nearly as much as previously though.

[Deleted]

I agree along the lines of a decline.

There isn't really much that keeps you interested.

I mean they've made the game annoying even for veterans like myself. Kind of getting fed up with RNG powered to 3 and more in everything you do and get.

The reward system is a mess. Over-bloated repeats of content/rehashes. Timewalking and 4 difficulties(My biggest gripe, there is no need for them. 2 is an absolute max in my mind, heck I'd keep it Ulduar-mode but myeah). Overall feeling of gear seeming unworthy of being weared, mostly mogged away to BC itemry because the current looks are bad and just stat-bags anyway.

New players are experiencing a complete single player game from the looks of it, it keeps them in for a while to explore all that the game offers but it wanes quickly because prestige doesn't exist. There's not much to look up to and the only drive in the game(character progression), the gear, is kind of meaningless(see above). RNG in everything devalues the experience along with the rewards as well.

Current players aren't really reccomending the game. Raiding scene suffers from new folks because the feeder guilds are dead and gone. The rare few who go out of their way to find such places are the only ones left but in a large minority. Quality players are a dying breed whilst the game is designed around a model that kind of expects these kinds of players to thrive.

My 2 cents.

[ramjb]

At least 9 million. WoD just got a years worth of content added to it and people are hyped about flying returning. The internet buzz around patch 6.2 and what Blizzard will soon announce at Blizzcon is incredible, it almost feels like WoW could restore itself and return back to its WOTLK pop number glory days: the public and media are fully behind WoW for a change. Everyone is coming back and calling all their friends to come back to enjoy this absolute feast of features that has just been added: new dungeons, new zone, pvp balanced to perfection, full Assassins Creed Black Flag addition to the housing system in WoW, epic raid and ending to an amazing expansion - something for everyone has been folded in with this patch.

[Paradyne]

At least 9 million. WoD just got a years worth of content added to it and people are hyped about flying returning. The internet buzz around patch 6.2 and what Blizzard will soon announce at Blizzcon is incredible, it almost feels like WoW could restore itself and return back to its WOTLK pop number glory days: the public and media are fully behind WoW for a change. Everyone is coming back and calling all their friends to come back to enjoy this absolute feast of features that has just been added: new dungeons, new zone, pvp balanced to perfection, full Assassins Creed Black Flag addition to the housing system in WoW, epic raid and ending to an amazing expansion - something for everyone has been folded in with this patch.

Well if nothing else you have to admire your level of optimism. I'm going to make a prediction right now, WoW will never hit 9 million players ever again....never! People are not going to fall for the nostalgia thing again after how badly they burnt everyone this time around with how awful WOD turned out.

My prediction for the quarter will be between 1-1.5 million lost. Apart from weekends & absolute peak times I barely see anyone on my server even in Tanaan, Wow is like a ghost town that even the ghosts packed up and moved out of.