Wisconsin GOP Primary

[ringpriest]

As of right now, it looks like a Ted Cruz blowout, although Cruz will likely "only" net 30 delegates or so, because Trump is likely to win a couple of Congressional districts. That said, Cruz has massively outperformed polling, beating Trump by around 15 points (instead of the projected 5).

This caps off a long and troubled week for Trump, in which he saw his campaign manager charged with battery, and repeatedly and damagingly fumbled taking a stance on abortion; his promise that, "Wisconsin – it's going to be such a big surprise on Tuesday!" has certainly turned out to be true (a rare example of Trump being right) - no one expected him to get steamrolled by such a large margin, including Trump himself, who wrapped up the night sulking in Trump tower, while releasing a delusional statement:

Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again. Lyin’ Ted Cruz had the Governor of Wisconsin, many conservative talk radio show hosts, and the entire party apparatus behind him. Not only was he propelled by the anti-Trump Super PAC’s spending countless millions of dollars on false advertising against Mr. Trump, but he was coordinating `with his own Super PAC’s (which is illegal) who totally control him. Ted Cruz is worse than a puppet— he is a Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump. We have total confidence that Mr. Trump will go on to win in New York, where he holds a substantial lead in all the polls, and beyond. Mr. Trump is the only candidate who can secure the delegates needed to win the Republican nomination and ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton, or whomever is the Democratic nominee, in order to Make America Great Again.

[Deletedaccount1]

Feeling hot for my man Scott (Scott Walker that is).

[dholland662]

I knew he'd lose Wisconsin. Cruz needs 89% of the delegates down from 90%. Which is why he's a spoiler. Almost as bad as Kasich who needs over 100%

Ultimately the anti-trump machine will arrogantly believe they made him lose when demographics were the cause. The red area is the hole in his support.

If you dont understand population characteristics and demographics you are essentially ignorant in my opinion.

[Pangean]

As of right now, it looks like a Ted Cruz blowout, although Cruz will likely "only" net 30 delegates or so, because Trump is likely to win a couple of Congressional districts. That said, Cruz has massively outperformed polling, beating Trump by around 15 points (instead of the projected 5).

This caps off a long and troubled week for Trump, in which he saw his campaign manager charged with battery, and repeatedly and damagingly fumbled taking a stance on abortion; his promise that, "Wisconsin – it's going to be such a big surprise on Tuesday!" has certainly turned out to be true (a rare example of Trump being right) - no one expected him to get steamrolled by such a large margin, including Trump himself, who wrapped up the night sulking in Trump tower, while releasing a delusional statement:

On https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html, Trump has dropped to 45.5 percent to win the nomination down 21 points in a week.

And an interesting tidbit from the exit polls:

"If the general election came down to Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, two in 10 GOP voters in Wisconsin say they’d vote for Clinton or stay home, slightly more than would do so if the contest were between Cruz and Clinton. Similar numbers would vote for a third party in both situations."

So 39% would not vote for the republican candidate if it's Trump. Only slightly better if it's Cruz. No wonder the GOP is shitting it's pants.

[Deletedaccount1]

I knew he'd lose Wisconsin. Cruz needs 89% of the delegates down from 90%. Which is why he's a spoiler. Almost as bad as Kasich who needs over 100%

[citation needed]

[dholland662]

[citation needed]

Math is hard.

#amateurhour

Google "Primary"

My god. Although... 81%. My mistake there

[Deletedaccount1]

Math is hard.

#amateurhour

Google "Primary"

My god.

It doesn't say that. I think your lying to me my man unless you show me your calculations.

[Healing Rain]

On https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html, Trump has dropped to 45.5 percent to win the nomination down 21 points in a week.

And an interesting tidbit from the exit polls:

"If the general election came down to Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, two in 10 GOP voters in Wisconsin say they’d vote for Clinton or stay home, slightly more than would do so if the contest were between Cruz and Clinton. Similar numbers would vote for a third party in both situations."

So 39% would not vote for the republican candidate if it's Trump. Only slightly better if it's Cruz. No wonder the GOP is shitting it's pants.

Those aren't real Republican if they would vote for Hillary. I'll just link this http:////www.realclearpolitics.com/v...llary_yes.html Anyone who would vote Hillary should have their brain examined!

[dholland662]

It doesn't say that. I think your lying to me my man unless you show me your calculations.

Funny because I just did them

1237 needed for nomination - 514 (cruz's) = 723

888 delegates remain

723/888 = 81%. Not 89% but that was a typo

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Those aren't real Republican if they would vote for Hillary. I'll just link this http:////www.realclearpolitics.com/v...llary_yes.html Anyone who would vote Hillary should have their brain examined!

They are actually just stupid and think immigration is good

[Deletedaccount1]

Funny because I just did them

1237 needed for nomination - 514 (cruz's) = 723

888 delegates remain

723/888 = 81%. Not 89% but that was a typo

Showing up with that many delegates means you can automatically win the nomination. If no one has that many, which is very likely, it looks like it will be a brokered convention.

[Reeve]

Funny because I just did them

1237 needed for nomination - 514 (cruz's) = 723

888 delegates remain

723/888 = 81%. Not 89% but that was a typo

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They are actually just stupid and think immigration is good

Cruz doesn't need to win. He just needs to prevent Trump from winning outright. Then he'll have outlived his usefulness and the Republicans will nominate Kasich or something at the convention.

[dholland662]

Showing up with that many delegates means you can automatically win the nomination. If no one has that many, which is very likely, it looks like it will be a brokered convention.

So? I didnt say that was impossible. I merely said Cruz is just a spoiler.

And a worm who has copied Trump's positions, even his trade policy.

http://www.cato.org/blog/continuing-...tures-ted-cruz

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Cruz doesn't need to win. He just needs to prevent Trump from winning outright. Then he'll have outlived his usefulness and the Republicans will nominate Kasich or something at the convention.

Which is why I called him a spoiler.

[Deletedaccount1]

So? I didnt say that was impossible. I merely said Cruz is just a spoiler.

And a worm who has copied Trump's positions, even his trade policy.

Nice one man

[Felya]

Those aren't real Republican if they would vote for Hillary. I'll just link this http:////www.realclearpolitics.com/v...llary_yes.html Anyone who would vote Hillary should have their brain examined!

Why would they have their brain examined?

[Pangean]

Those aren't real Republican if they would vote for Hillary. I'll just link this http:////www.realclearpolitics.com/v...llary_yes.html Anyone who would vote Hillary should have their brain examined!

Not sure what that had to do with the numbers but whatever floats your boat. Anyway whats going on is 40% of the GOP who voted in the primary will vote for someone other than the GOP candidate if it's Trump. That's how poisonous Trump is and why the GOP is worried not only in loosing the Presidential and now down ticket as well.

[Sury]

As of right now, it looks like a Ted Cruz blowout, although Cruz will likely "only" net 30 delegates or so, because Trump is likely to win a couple of Congressional districts.

Last graphic I seen had Cruz 33 and Trump 3 (winning a single district).

[dholland662]

Nice one man

I honestly would be embarrassed if I were you. I said nothing about brokered conventions, in fact by stating it is virtually impossible for Cruz to win by delegates that sort of naturally concludes he must win via brokered convention.

[Pangean]

Cruz doesn't need to win. He just needs to prevent Trump from winning outright. Then he'll have outlived his usefulness and the Republicans will nominate Kasich or something at the convention.

I see someone coming from the floor as strong possibility if their rules allow it.

[dholland662]

Not sure what that had to do with the numbers but whatever floats your boat. Anyway whats going on is 40% of the GOP who voted in the primary will vote for someone other than the GOP candidate if it's Trump. That's how poisonous Trump is and why the GOP is worried not only in loosing the Presidential and now down ticket as well.

Ah good. The demographic decline of America is in full swing.

[Stormdash]

Nobody "knew" Trump would lose 3-4 weeks ago when he led in Wisconsin; and demographics didn't change over that period, just his more and more frequent exposure as a fruitcake. Not only did tonight do quite a bit to set up a convention fight, I wouldn't expect Trump's lead to remain firm in every state in which he still holds one, because voters are rat-like with respect to their preference against sinking ships. He will very possible have between 950-1150 delegates before convention, but his amateurish and lazy operational approach to the campaign will make it nearly impossible for him to lure in enough unpledged delegates to get over the top on first ballot, nor even to assure that more than, say, 50-75% of his pledged delegates are actually human beings who want him to be the nominee. And it is definitely first ballot or bust for Trump.

After that, it's basically either Cruz, or some non-candidate, but the non-candidate option depends entirely on what the delegation is willing to approve for proposed rule changes -- if 70-80% of the delegates on the floor back Cruz or Trump, it's hard to imagine a majority voting to approve a rule that would let someone other than Trump or Cruz be presented for nomination (Kasich won't be eligible without a change to 40B, let alone any inactive or non-candidate), and it might only happen with the GOP openly bribing them with comped travel expenses and such (perfectly legal).

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Cruz doesn't need to win. He just needs to prevent Trump from winning outright. Then he'll have outlived his usefulness and the Republicans will nominate Kasich or something at the convention.

This, again, depends quite a bit on votes on the convention rules for nominating and delegates.

As a practical matter, the GOP would still need Cruz on the ticket as VP if they managed to pull some such shit just for party unity... much as it's near certain that if Cruz is the nominee, he'll choose some establishment friendly Governor as his running mate (Kasich, maybe Walker, maybe Nikki Haley), as Reagan picked HW for party unity after having thwarted the establishment of his era to claim the nomination.