Brexit and Trump: Historical Trends of Outsourcing/Interventionism and Reactions

[CostinR]

NOTE: I want to express this as a European who sees a lot of worrying signs here on the old continent.

When it comes to election I and many others have found that following trend lines is more accurate then just raw data. Historical trend lines as an example.

Looking at history and historical trend lines many people saw Trump's victory as inevitable as Brexit before as the Italian referendum and the potential victory of Marine Le Pen in France and also applying to Obama's victory.

In fact Obama's victory was a superb reaction to the economic crash, the foreign wars, the outsourcing etc. etc. He was a reaction to Bush's policies. Obama could have been the greatest president in decades, but his implementation was poor.

Then Obama failed to deliver, because instead of reversing the trends of outsourcing, foreign wars, deregulation, tax cuts and many other things he continued them. There was a reversal early on his presidency, pre-Arab Spring from interventionism and back to realism but after Libya he reversed back.

You can see this very well with Victoria Nuland, the top neocon in the State Department: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland Look specifically at the periods she was appointed and then match those to bad periods of foreign policy under Bush and Obama, and also the good periods for both Bush and Obama ( very late on in Bush's presidency and early on in Obama's )

As for outsourcing: The countryside has been boiling over for quite a while now and has been trending the Republican way for while. It was expected based on those trends that Trump would win the countryside just like Brexit won due to former labor voters. The anger is that great and continuing down the same path as outsourcing in either Europe or the US will only in disaster for everyone.

Let me put it like this: If we don't see an immediate end to outsourcing, open borders and interventionism Europe will collapse: The Dutch are very angry, the Greeks, the Italians, the Spanish etc. This has to stop now and be reversed.

It's the same thing with the Great Depression: Massive regulation cuts, a temporary economic boom and then a crash. A reverse trend of protectionism, the New Deal and the creation of the Middle Class. Anyone who follows history and thinks like a historian would have seen all of this coming and people did: Michael Moore saw it coming because he looked at it from a historical perspective not a political science perspective.

Every action has a reaction. Going too far down any path will lead to ruin. It happened in the 1920s, it happened in 2008. Even if Trump and Brexit had failed NOW similar things would have occurred later in a much worse fashion.

Consider this: The conservative party decimated labor in the 2015 UK elections by winning working class voters: The party of Thatcher who destroyed their jobs won voters who CELEBRATED Thatcher's death. That was the reaction to a continued path of outsourcing from both parties.

Solution: A reverse of outsourcing, regardless of implementation, closing of borders, ending foreign wars etc. etc. is necessary. This must be approached in a balanced way and not go too far in a radical way. This is why Reagan was a great president but Reaganomics only lasted for so long. Nothing lasts forever, no trend is irreversible. The idea that Reagan's policies could continue forever was childish.

I leave this quote: Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Theresa May is the perfect Prime Minister for the UK right now. She's Thatcher like but also reverse Thatcher on outsourcing.

[Independent voter]

It's globalization, the removal of borders for business.

So what do you do when your 25 dollar an hour job moves to Vietnam where workers make $8 a day? Well, one way to fix things and I think the best way is raise the wages of Vietnamese workers to the point where it makes business sense to move jobs back to the US. You don't have to raise Vietnamese wages to match US wages exactly, 12 dollars an hour might be enough. There are costs to doing business so far away from your market, like shipping for example.

[Deleted]

It's globalization, the removal of borders for business.

So what do you do when your 25 dollar an hour job moves to Vietnam where workers make $8 a day? Well, one way to fix things and I think the best way is raise the wages of Vietnamese workers to the point where it makes business sense to move jobs back to the US. You don't have to raise Vietnamese wages to match US wages exactly, 12 dollars an hour might be enough. There are costs to doing business so far away from your market, like shipping for example.

Or the easier way is simply to apply tariffs to said countries profiting off of destroying your economy.

See: Brexit and why we now ironically have Germany by the balls because their biggest industries cannot survive without the UK trade.

[s_bushido]

Every time I see someone making grand proclamations about what Trump represents, I feel obliged to remind them that fewer people voted for the man than voted for his opponent.

[Deleted]

Every time I see someone making grand proclamations about what Trump represents, I feel obliged to remind them that fewer people voted for the man than voted for his opponent.

I also like to point out Detroit has been Democrat for all the time it's been an utter ruin, and will be the model city of the future if people keep doing down the path of Regressive race politics.

[NED funded]

Someone needs to take another lesson in history. Protectionist policies only worsened the great depression.

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Also while I agree that China is a cunt, the fact that these regions are now in poor state, speaks more of the failure of the goverment in redistributing wealth.

[CostinR]

Every time I see someone making grand proclamations about what Trump represents, I feel obliged to remind them that fewer people voted for the man than voted for his opponent.

Meanwhile I feel obligated to mention that Brexit, a populist move, was voted on by a lot of people. People need to stop conflating the idea of Trump to the global populist move that's happening world wide.

In Mexico there's massive protests right now that threaten to become a revolution because the people of Mexico have realized, after so many years, that their politicians offer them nothing and this time they can't just run away.

Someone needs to take another lesson in history. Protectionist policies only worsened the great depression.

That's why a balanced approach is necessary. There are far left Bernie fanboys who firmly believe they improve the economy by going FULL blown protectionism. That's a really bad idea.

Also while I agree that China is a cunt, the fact that these regions are now in poor state, speaks more of the failure of the goverment in redistributing wealth.

Focusing on cities gets you there. Cities generally will always be better off then any other place since they attract wealth, the rural side of any country is the one that typically needs the most amount of help.

[Thepersona]

Or the easier way is simply to apply tariffs to said countries profiting off of destroying your economy.

See: Brexit and why we now ironically have Germany by the balls because their biggest industries cannot survive without the UK trade.

Oh god, it seems tjat you know nothing of macroeconomics and how trade works... when applying a tariff, the only loser a
Is the consumer

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Meanwhile I feel obligated to mention that Brexit, a populist move, was voted on by a lot of people. People need to stop conflating the idea of Trump to the global populist move that's happening world wide.

In Mexico there's massive protests right now that threaten to become a revolution because the people of Mexico have realized, after so many years, that their politicians offer them nothing and this time they can't just run away.



Focusing on cities gets you there. Cities generally will always be better off then any other place since they attract wealth, the rural side of any country is the one that typically needs the most amount of help.

And you need to remember that a sizeable percentage of the brexit voting bloc inmediately regreted that choice

[CostinR]

And you need to remember that a sizeable percentage of the brexit voting bloc inmediately regreted that choice

A few percentage points = / = sizable percentage and context matters: Europe threatening Britain, the press howling in pain, millions of people howling in fury against Brexit voters.

If someone's going to viciously attack you for a vote, why would you ever say you voted one way or another. Polls aren't wrong, but social pressure does dictate how one answers a poll.

You'd be suicidal to say you voted for Brexit in some places in London.

[Thepersona]

A few percentage points = / = sizable percentage and context matters: Europe threatening Britain, the press howling in pain, millions of people howling in fury against Brexit voters.

If someone's going to viciously attack you for a vote, why would you ever say you voted one way or another. Polls aren't wrong, but social pressure does dictate how one answers a poll.

You'd be suicidal to say you voted for Brexit in some places in London.

That percentage points are enough to have flipped the results... and sorry but a lot of people that voted for brexit regretted it. I know, romania is in cahoots with the ruskies but dont spread propaganda here

[CostinR]

That percentage points are enough to have flipped the results... and sorry but a lot of people that voted for brexit regretted it. I know, romania is in cahoots with the ruskies but dont spread propaganda here

You're judging a country of some 20 million people on the basis of precisely....what? A couple of people that post alone that only represent their own opinions.

Romanians as a people overall are the biggest supporters and fans of the European Union. Why? Because there's 4-5 million Romanians living in Europe that only got there because of the borders opening. We aren't just pro-EU, we're fanatical supporters of the EU.

Worker protections, the European Court of Human Rights, the EU court of Justice, European Citizenship? These are fundamentally good things and they need to be protected. ( especially the Human Rights Court ).

What isn't a good thing is that millions of people emigrate from my country then get used and abused in places like Britain, not just by the people who feel the need to throw rocks in our faces and call us all gypsies because we "steal their jobs", but that these so called open borders instead of helping us only allow big corporations to abuse Eastern European workers.

Why? Because West Europe has unions, very strong unions but Eastern Europeans are so desperate that they sign on to work for little pay without unions and get abused by the very companies that hire them.

Ever asked yourself that perhaps NAFTA isn't good for Mexico? That Mexico's people are living in absolute poverty as a result of it? That NAFTA obliterated their agriculture industry? The EU at least has courts, and laws and protections. NAFTA has nothing to protect people.

Russia you say? What would you know about Russia, you don't live in a country where the Soviets plundered your wealth.

As for Brexit? It was a call of desperation by millions of people who don't feel they have anything left. You can recognize that and try and fix their problems or you can howl at them.

There was such a hysteria that Brexit would crash the global economy or that Trump would, neither of them happened. In fact the US economy is in much better shape now then it's been for a long time.

[stabetha]

Or the easier way is simply to apply tariffs to said countries profiting off of destroying your economy.

See: Brexit and why we now ironically have Germany by the balls because their biggest industries cannot survive without the UK trade.

I like the Idea of a mixture of the two, a sliding scale tariff that gets higher the less you pay your employees.

[CostinR]

At the heart of this looks to be the idea of "outsourcing", what does that mean? Imported products?

Outsourcing of jobs.

[CostinR]

Immigrant labour?

Well immigrant labour is fine. That's a question of open borders. There's a whole list of problems with that.

The US has been doing both.

[CostinR]

TBH I'm not at all sure what you are saying. It's a number of short paragraphs filled with buzzzwords

What I'm saying is that what's been global policy for the last 30 years is the idea that shipping manufacturing jobs overseas while importing cheap labor at home for service sector jobs has been taken too far and has hurt the global economy.

A balanced reversal of this would be a good idea. Theresa May is a good choice for a PM as she seems the most likely to approach things from a balanced perspective. There's a reason why her approval is much higher then Jeremy Corbyn's, because she's pursuing a centrist line.

[NED funded]

You're judging a country of some 20 million people on the basis of precisely....what? A couple of people that post alone that only represent their own opinions.

Romanians as a people overall are the biggest supporters and fans of the European Union. Why? Because there's 4-5 million Romanians living in Europe that only got there because of the borders opening. We aren't just pro-EU, we're fanatical supporters of the EU.

Worker protections, the European Court of Human Rights, the EU court of Justice, European Citizenship? These are fundamentally good things and they need to be protected. ( especially the Human Rights Court ).

What isn't a good thing is that millions of people emigrate from my country then get used and abused in places like Britain, not just by the people who feel the need to throw rocks in our faces and call us all gypsies because we "steal their jobs", but that these so called open borders instead of helping us only allow big corporations to abuse Eastern European workers.

Why? Because West Europe has unions, very strong unions but Eastern Europeans are so desperate that they sign on to work for little pay without unions and get abused by the very companies that hire them.

Ever asked yourself that perhaps NAFTA isn't good for Mexico? That Mexico's people are living in absolute poverty as a result of it? That NAFTA obliterated their agriculture industry? The EU at least has courts, and laws and protections. NAFTA has nothing to protect people.

Russia you say? What would you know about Russia, you don't live in a country where the Soviets plundered your wealth.

As for Brexit? It was a call of desperation by millions of people who don't feel they have anything left. You can recognize that and try and fix their problems or you can howl at them.

There was such a hysteria that Brexit would crash the global economy or that Trump would, neither of them happened. In fact the US economy is in much better shape now then it's been for a long time.

NAFTA did not destroy the Mexican economy. What's happening is that Mexico is moving from a low value productio to a high value one. Are people left behind as a result? Sure, but in the overall Mexico is the biggest winner of NAFTA.

[CostinR]

NAFTA did not destroy the Mexican economy. What's happening is that Mexico is moving from a low value productio to a high value one. Are people left behind as a result? Sure, but in the overall Mexico is the biggest winner of NAFTA.

Because Mexico is doing so well when they get more money from illegal immigrants working in the US then from their oil production.

[Mormolyce]

Excuse me if I scoff at the suggestion that something that won by a margin of ~2% was "inevitable". Or by a margin of... -2.5 million in the other case.

Both of these things were coin flips.

[CostinR]

What was inevitable was that it or something similar was going to happen. Brexit's been in the works for years, actually since Britain joined the EU.

So you can scoff at it or accept that the British public has been steadily moving in that direction for years and then reached critical mass.

[NED funded]

Because Mexico is doing so well when they get more money from illegal immigrants working in the US then from their oil production.

They are doing so well, because we trade with them. The problems they face now is more of a result of the failure of its goverment rather than NAFTA