Why the Hurd news is significant:
1) It makes it much more likely the GOP will lose the district in 2020 (Hillary Clinton carried it in ’16); the Cook Political Report has already moved it to Lean D.
2) It makes it that much harder for the GOP to win control of Congress – Republicans need to flip 18 seats, and losing Hurd’s TX-23 district raises the number to 19.
3) Like Ryan’s announcement in 2018, it sends the message to GOP donors and potential recruits that flipping the House might be out of reach for Republicans.
4) It eliminates more diversity for the GOP — Hurd was the sole African-American member of the House Republican caucus.
5) And when it comes to the immigration debate, it robs the GOP of their only member representing a district on the U.S.-Mexico border.
But there’s an even more significant story going on here:
The non-Trump wing of the Republican Party wants out.
Think about the other GOP retirements we’ve seen — Reps. Susan Brooks, R-Ind., Martha Roby, R-Ala., and now Hurd.
And these Republicans parachuting out of the Republican Party underscore how vulnerable Trump really is, despite the growing economy.
The fewer Will Hurd-like members running in 2020 reduces the number of moderate/non-Trump Republicans who would eagerly go to the polls for those representatives – and then still hold their nose and vote for the president.
The Republican Party is getting smaller and smaller, and that isn’t good news for an incumbent Republican president.