Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[jeezusisacasual]

Supply down, interest rate down, price is way up.

Median home price in Austin is now over 400k and still climbing. My daughter is a developer in TX, and she can't build fast enough to meet demand. Not enough construction workers. There is a waiting list of prospective buyers on her projects. All her residences are equipped with solar and geothermal heating/cooling.

There are no 3 bdr under 600k in our area now. The supply side is so bad, we had an agent came knocking at our door over the weekend to ask if we want to put our 1.5M house on the market. We had a good laugh when she found out that my wife is a RE broker.

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Not a single DoD projects which were cancelled in 2019 due to their funding being transferred to the wall have been reauthorized in Trump's new budget. Quite a few of them, such as the C-130 simulator for the National Guard, are critical to the direct safety and training of the members of the armed forces.

The US is now joining the overall increase in housing costs that has plagued the rest of the world since 2010 or so. Some have attributed it towards capital groups buying up property as a safer hedge against a larger scale market downturn. The west has an affordability crisis since wages have not increased within the margins to make housing more affordable which i have no real solutions excluding tax incentives for builders on the state / local to lower the cost of entry? The land can support a 100k house or a 300k house on a new subdivision which are you going to take?

Most houses here in New Castle are far more then that for what you get is hilariously out of touch but again Australia has not had a recession since the early 90s.

[Breccia]

It also has the second highest rent increase in the nation. Second to Phoenix.

Key word, right there. Not every supply/demand curve is as elastic as others. Still, I have to say, I was not expecting such a high price.

By the way, Trump just put a new rule into place that lets him throw out scientific studies, unless the underlying science is made public.

"You already posted that."

No, that was the EPA, this is the Interior. It's spreading. It's mostly aimed at helping oil and gas companies drill, by letting them refute a study which says they can't.

To be fair, "show all your work" is hardly the worst thing in the world Trump has said. But a known science denier trying to make it hard for science to be used is exactly what we'd expect from someone who puts feelings over facts.

[Thepersona]

The US is now joining the overall increase in housing costs that has plagued the rest of the world since 2010 or so. Some have attributed it towards capital groups buying up property as a safer hedge against a larger scale market downturn. The west has an affordability crisis since wages have not increased within the margins to make housing more affordable which i have no real solutions excluding tax incentives for builders on the state / local to lower the cost of entry? The land can support a 100k house or a 300k house on a new subdivision which are you going to take?

Most houses here in New Castle are far more then that for what you get is hilariously out of touch but again Australia has not had a recession since the early 90s.

This is what happens in Chile. Big groups buy entire apartment buildings for rent, driving the prize up artificially. Housing prices have doubled in the last 10 years, and in some places they have tripled.

[Breccia]

I'm looking forward to reading the recap of Trump's speech about the Caronavirus. I expect it to be 90% "all is well" followed by 10% bragging about how he handled the problems better than anyone else possibly could have.

It's pointless, of course. Even if the virus magically never washes up on our shores -- and that ship has sailed -- the damage isn't being caused because Americans are getting sick. The damage is everyone else is. Trump could lock every American in a hermetically-sealed germ-free room for life, and US businesses still wouldn't get components from factories in other countries that shut down.

By the way, Trump was supposed to give this conference at six. Not three. He moved it up, because he's trying to stabilize the stock market, and tweeting didn't work. Twice. By the way, even if he scares the market flat (it basically now is), that means still no bump after the historic 2-day drop.

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I linked this page earlier but they've updated it. MarketWatch lists five reasons the stock market is doing poorly.

None of them are "secret back-alley rich people creating panic".

1) The Coronavirus

We've been over that.

2) Bernie Sanders is winning more polls

Sanders is by far the most "tax the rich to pay for social services" of the current candidates. Companies are worried what his victory would do to their bottom line.

3) Stocks are overinflated in price

MW cites a stat that suggests the stock market is at its highest valuation since 2002.

4) Govt Bonds

The general rule is, some investments are stable but pay less, some are unstable but pay more when they pay at all. Government bonds are stable. And their yields continue to fall, because more and more people are buying, and that's how supply and demand works. Actually, they're really low right now. And the Fed hasn't even cut rates yet.

5) Global market fears

Again, even if the coronavirus never makes it to the US, the effects in other countries will be felt here. It's hard to sell an expensive car to someone who hasn't worked in several months. Or, you know, died.

For more information on that last one, this CBO report from 2006, yes it has Pelosi's signature, says

This revision incorporates corrected estimates of the overall impact of a potential flu pandemic on gross domestic product: about 4-1/4 percent in the severe scenario and about 1 percent in the mild scenario.

and suggests $5 billion (one would assume 2006 dollars) for hospitals to prepare.

[Zan15]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/trum...n-article.html

After years of threatening to sue the NYT for almost every article they've written about him, his campaign is finally pulling the trigger on a libel suit.

What was the offending article?

And op-ed. This one in particular - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/27/o...d-pro-quo.html

and as soon as they order him to testify or be deposed he will turn tail and run like a little bitch

[Elegiac]

and suggests $5 billion (one would assume 2006 dollars) for hospitals to prepare.

Sorry, could you rephrase this in terms of a defense procurement budget?

[Breccia]

What was the offending article?

And op-ed.

To be fair, you can lie in an OP ED. An opinion is not a lie, so I can say "I think Trump is a horrible fatass despicable fatass deplorable human fatass" all I want. If I say "and he weighs 800 pounds" that's a statement of fact, and it's false. He's gotta be closer to 300, but I'm not sure which side.

The rules for slander and libel have not changed, because Trump cannot change them:

1) The publisher must know the information was false when they published it.

2) The publisher must know the information was damaging. A damaging, but true, statement is not libel.

3) The Supreme Court in 1964 set a double standard that makes Trump's an uphill battle, which will be hard because he's such a fatass he can't climb a small hill. Simply put, public figures, like Trump, have more access to fight back because they're public figures. I could scream my head off on these forums and maybe a thousand people will hear it. Trump tweets, and the world rolls its eyes.

4) The US has generally been slow to enact massive libel punishments, since doing so would discourage a free press from reporting on the government -- the First Amendment, from another angle.

5) I will now list all the federal libel laws in the United States:

We don't have any. Just ask the ACLU. Trump has no power to change state laws.

5a) Incidentally, while Trump could tweet a lie on Twitter, Twitter can't be sued for that. Trump, potentially, could. He should probably worry about his own fat ass if he loosens libel laws.

5b) In the meanwhile, he'd have to go through NYState libel laws, and, well, NYState isn't exactly going to bend over backwards to help Trump.

6) Big Macs are not considered evidence.

7) And finally, as @Zan15 said, the second Trump sits his fat ass on the stand, it will shatter from the force and need to be replaced. But while he's under oath, he'd be open to all sorts of retaliation -- mostly PR, since he'd refuse to answer any question, including "oh my God, you just broke a solid wood platform, how much do you weigh?"

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Sorry, could you rephrase this in terms of a defense procurement budget?

Um, well, it's enough to pay the 130,000 troops we sent to Iraq from March 2003 to May 2003. Ten times over. Or ten B-1 bombers, but I don't think we use those anymore. Hey @Skroe do we (checks posts) oh, right.

The CBO said $1 million per hospital. In 2006, of course.

[Drutt]

He's gotta be closer to 300, but I'm not sure which side.

He's over. 310-320 range, given his height and complete avoidance of exercise.

[cors8]

and as soon as they order him to testify or be deposed he will turn tail and run like a little bitch

Guarantee someone at Fox News or conservative radio will tell him to cut it out. If he wins the lawsuit, which he obviously won't, it would open the floodgates for lawsuits against themselves.

[Breccia]

Dow jones is in the red again. With 2 hours to go

Closing bell. Down 120, which isn't really a problem by itself, but that rally didn't last.

Maybe tomorrow. By the way, can't help but notice, Trump's press conference didn't do a damn thing. DOW was down about the same when he started, it ticked up a bit, then dropped just the tiniest bit lower. Trump's promises mean nothing anymore.

EDIT: That's 2,000 in three days, for those of you playing the home game. 26,616 is still the target number.

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WHOA I apologize, I seem to have misread a headline back there. Trump didn't speak at 3, he's still on for this evening.

My mistake.

[Elegiac]

Um, well, it's enough to pay the 130,000 troops we sent to Iraq from March 2003 to May 2003. Ten times over. Or ten B-1 bombers, but I don't think we use those anymore. Hey @Skroe do we (checks posts) oh, right.

The CBO said $1 million per hospital. In 2006, of course.

Don't worry, I'm sure dear Leader is already flying to Alabama to throw out boxes of cough masks.

[Paranoid Android]

Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & @CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape! @CDCgov.....

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...832004608?s=19

Holy Bleep!

This tweet is all about the markets. His narcassim cannot take it. He don't care about any who contracted coronavirus or the potential outbreak.

Crazy!

[Edge-]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...-whats-coming/

The ad then features audio of Obama that sounds as if he’s denouncing Democratic politicians for selling out black people. At the same time, the screen flashes references in white letters to what appears to be the controversy last spring about Biden’s comments about segregationist Senators, and his support for the 1994 crime bill.

The ad makes it sound as if Obama is referring to those episodes while denouncing Biden as someone who betrayed the African American community. But it turns out the audio is actually of Obama reading a passage from his 1995 memoir, “Dreams For My Father,” which features a character in the book talking about what Chicago politics was like for African Americans long ago.

In other words, the ad features Obama reading from his own 25-year-old book, mimicking the words of a separate character, to make it sound as if Obama is denouncing Biden (who you may recall was Obama’s vice president) for selling out African Americans.

Hill, the spokesperson for Obama, sent over this statement, while stressing that Obama is not endorsing anyone in the primary:

This despicable ad is straight out of the Republican disinformation playbook, and it’s clearly designed to suppress turnout among minority voters in South Carolina by taking President Obama’s voice out of context and twisting his words to mislead viewers. In the interest of truth in advertising, we are calling on TV stations to take this ad down and stop playing into the hands of bad actors who seek to sow division and confusion among the electorate.

Reminder that Trump and the GOP are the biggest purveyors of "FAKE NEWS" in the country.

[Breccia]

This tweet is all about the markets.

Didn't he post nearly exactly the same thing yesterday? Except replace "USA" with "stock market"?

[Thepersona]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...832004608?s=19

Holy Bleep!

This tweet is all about the markets. His narcassim cannot take it. He don't care about any who contracted coronavirus or the potential outbreak.

Crazy!

Does this bloop of a human being know that tweets like this do not exactly help skittish markets?
The dude should know that traders and stock operators are more easily scared than racoons

[Edge-]

Does this bloop of a human being know that tweets like this do not exactly help skittish markets?
The dude should know that traders and stock operators are more easily scared than racoons

No. But the markets have largely stopped reacting to every tweet of his as they've realized most of them don't mean shit.

[Fugus]

Closing bell. Down 120, which isn't really a problem by itself, but that rally didn't last.

Maybe tomorrow. By the way, can't help but notice, Trump's press conference didn't do a damn thing. DOW was down about the same when he started, it ticked up a bit, then dropped just the tiniest bit lower. Trump's promises mean nothing anymore.

EDIT: That's 2,000 in three days, for those of you playing the home game. 26,616 is still the target number.

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WHOA I apologize, I seem to have misread a headline back there. Trump didn't speak at 3, he's still on for this evening.

My mistake.

Crap, was just about to copy/paste what I typed on facebook just a few minutes ago, lol. But ya beat me to it. Oh well, I will repeat it anyways.

"The DOW was negative 1000 or so day before yesterday.
The DOW was negative 900 or so yesterday.
The DOW is negative 123.77 now as I type this, so continuing to fall.

Currently at 26,957.59

It topped out at 26,616.71 on January 26th, 2018 before flat lining as Trump and the GOP tax plan went into effect.

That is only a difference of 340.88 points.

As it stands, we have a grand total of 340.88 points of growth since the GOP policies too effect due to this.

Even before this took effect, the overall growth was roughly 2,400 points in 2 years.

We went from piss poor growth under Trump to basically no growth due to this so far. Lets see how it goes from here....."

[szechuan]

Reminder that Trump and the GOP are the biggest purveyors of "FAKE NEWS" in the country.

Trump killed the CDC Pandemic Response team in 2018.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/tr...pandemic-team/

[Zan15]

Crap, was just about to copy/paste what I typed on facebook just a few minutes ago, lol. But ya beat me to it. Oh well, I will repeat it anyways.

"The DOW was negative 1000 or so day before yesterday.
The DOW was negative 900 or so yesterday.
The DOW is negative 123.77 now as I type this, so continuing to fall.

Currently at 26,957.59

It topped out at 26,616.71 on January 26th, 2018 before flat lining as Trump and the GOP tax plan went into effect.

That is only a difference of 340.88 points.

As it stands, we have a grand total of 340.88 points of growth since the GOP policies too effect due to this.

Even before this took effect, the overall growth was roughly 2,400 points in 2 years.

We went from piss poor growth under Trump to basically no growth due to this so far. Lets see how it goes from here....."

That's what happens when you have a propped up market based on one time influx of "other people's money", high govt spending, abnormally low interest rates @full employment and huge stock buy backs that could never continue at that pace.

I am sure the stock market will recover from this in the long term. a slow and steady rise, just like under Obama...just 40% slower...

If this catalyst caused this much hurt, imagine something serious happens in the financial markets. yikes

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Closing bell. Down 120, which isn't really a problem by itself, but that rally didn't last.

Maybe tomorrow. By the way, can't help but notice, Trump's press conference didn't do a damn thing. DOW was down about the same when he started, it ticked up a bit, then dropped just the tiniest bit lower. Trump's promises mean nothing anymore.

EDIT: That's 2,000 in three days, for those of you playing the home game. 26,616 is still the target number.

.

The interesting question will be, will we hit the 20% down indicator on all 3 markets that would signal an end to the bull market run.


Although we already had this in Dec 18, it was only a single indicator that bottomed out at 18-19% that stopped it from being called.


This bull run unofficially stopped 3 times since 2010, they just don't want to admit it.

[Fugus]

That's what happens when you have a propped up market based on one time influx of "other people's money", high govt spending, abnormally low interest rates @full employment and huge stock buy backs that could never continue at that pace.

I am sure the stock market will recover from this in the long term. a slow and steady rise, just like under Obama...just 40% slower...

If this catalyst caused this much hurt, imagine something serious happens in the financial markets. yikes

I already predicted a huge drop due to this administration and its policies within the next 2 years given what we already know, what economists say and what I have looked into here.

This could very well set that off sooner at this rate. Remember the economy is already being propped up with low interest rates and Quantitative easing. So, in gaming terms, we already have burned those cool down and won't get much effect trying to use them again.

Then got the actual slowing down due to the trade war or the facts the poor and working class has still got the shit end of the stick and what gains they have gotten can be more attributed to "The Fight for 15" forcing minimum wages up in multiple states combined with Walmart (One of our biggest employers) also raising their starting pay to combat it.

Then got the housing stuff where the costs no where near match the public's ability to pay for them along with the student debt issue claiming and so on.

I figure we will probably fight this off, but I see a MASSIVE collapse in the near future.