Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Kiri]

And France, Israel, China, Russia, Iran and the motherfucking Taliban.

He needs a victory. Thing is, everyone else knows this. And they read his book.

At the very least, we won't have to worry about anyone calling him a magnificient bast....
I still think that he will take some weak deal offered by China to proclaim victory in the trade war before the election though. It's probably the easiest victory to get, if he can keep himself off of Twitter for a few days, and his supporters will believe it anyway.

[Flarelaine]

One hundred forty-five CEOs signed a letter to the Senate, asking for movement on gun reform.

The article mentions Bain Capital. Isn't that Romney's old stomping grounds?

[Kiri]

Does it matter what his supporters believe? His supporters will vote for him anyway. Two things matter. Getting people to the polls and flipping voters in battleground states.

His most hardcore supporters? Probably not. But there are those of his supporters who still think him the cure to a rotten political system. If he doesn't deliver them something that can at least be spun as a victory, they might just not go out and vote. His success in 2016 was in part due to him mobilizing people that otherwise would just not have voted at all. He really can't afford to lose those again.

Well, to the extent that it even matters in general in the US, given that only certain states actually matter to begin with due to people being willing to vote for a rotting corpse if it has the right letter next to it.

[Ghostpanther]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-retail-sales

U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in August boosted by purchases of new autos and building supplies, suggesting the economy remained strong, even as fears over an impending slowdown continued to mount.

The Commerce Department said on Friday that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, well above analyst expectations of 0.2 percent, on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

"Healthy consumer spending is being driven by the good jobs market and increasing wage growth, two powerful factors that can overwhelm anxiety-generating events that can curtail spending," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

[Breccia]

U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in August boosted by purchases of new autos and building supplies, suggesting the economy remained strong, even as fears over an impending slowdown continued to mount.

That is an interesting piece from FOX News. And here is a similar article from Reuters saying, yep, auto sales helped keep it 0.4%.

Of course...Reuters also had some other things to say, rather than post only the highest points and suddenly get bored and change the subject.

But there were pockets of weakness in the retail sales report. Receipts at clothing stores fell 0.9% last month and sales at electronics and appliance stores were unchanged.

Furniture sales dropped 0.5%, the largest decrease in eight months. Americans also cut back on spending at restaurants and bars, with sales declining 1.2%, the most since September 2018.

Oh, and this little tidbit here:

The Atlanta Fed is forecasting the economy to grow at a 1.9% rate in the third quarter. The economy grew at a 2.0% pace in the April-June quarter.

Hmm. Didn't Trump say something about the GDP? I could have sworn he did...over and over in fact...I mean, if you're ready to say sub-2% is good enough, is a strong economy, more power to you, but, well, Obama routinely did better. I don't think Trump would agree with you, either. Wasn't the bar 3%? Or was it even higher? I think it was higher. I don't think it was under two.

Also, let's pretend FOX is correct. Let's pretend this is signs of a strong, healthy, best bestiest best economy. Why do we need a rate cut? Why is that necessary?

And let's go another step further: Trump and tax cuts.

At this point, saying "the tax cut for the rich will pay for itself" has been proven resoundingly wrong. Everything it was supposed to do has failed, as wage growth is slightly less than Obama's, job creation is slightly less than Obama's, and the stock market is growing at a rate worse than Obama's (and Bush, and Clinton, and Bush again, etc etc). What has happened, is that Trump broke his promise about balancing the budget, and in fact has a new record deficit. Which was completely expected, including by the people who pushed for it -- they went $1.5 Trillion over budget and they were stopped from going further. Consumer spending might be going up in some markets, and that's cool and all, but at some point you have to pay for things. Cars sold big during model year-end sales, this is my shocked face. Wake me when he buys a GDP higher than 3%. It hasn't happened yet. At best, you can point to four consecutive quarters where Trump averaged 3.1%, but Obama beat 3% the same way four times, so it's still a failure.

Trump has, on multiple occasions, promised a second tax cut on top of the one that flat-out didn't work. Then he backtracked. In an October rally, Trump promised a 10% middle-class tax cut just before the elections. We've seen nothing of that promise for nearly a year. In more recent weeks, we've seen Trump consider a capital gains tax cut *cough* sorry executive action, but then he said "nevermind". He looked into a payroll tax cut but then said "nevermind". And he also promised he'd propose a new tax cut for the middle class, in 2021, if the House and Senate go GOP and he's also re-elected. Throw in some unicorns too, why don't you? Within the last 24 hours he even went further, saying he'd have a proposal next year.

First of all: how many times does Trump need to promise a tax cut, then not give a tax cut, before you stop believing he'll give a tax cut? Oct 22, 2018 isn't exactly recent. The tax cut for the rich was written and passed in less time than that, right?

Second of all, why not announce the tax cut right now? Just tell us what taxes will be cut, and how, right now? Doesn't that sound like an interesting issue to debate? Wouldn't you make your 2020 election decision based on that? That sounds kind of important to me. I'd like to know what I was voting for, wouldn't you?

Third of all, why doesn't he just reverse the biggest tax increase in US history, his own? If he wants a tax cut, why not just undo the National Security Lol tariffs, right now?

Fourth of all, how many secret plans does Trump have that he refuses to tell you? How's it going in the Middle East? Yeah, we're really drowning in peace, aren't we?

But here's the real one. One that a conservative needs to answer, and answer honestly:

If the economy is so strong, and the deficit is breaking records, why should we give a tax cut to anyone?

I'm not expecting a Republican to say "we should increase taxes", God no. But I would expect a fiscal conservative to say "maybe the time the deficit is breaking records isn't the time to intentionally make it worse". Which is what a new tax cut would do.

And I was under the impression that a tax cut, such as the payroll tax cut Obama did, was meant to boost the economy. If the economy is so strong, why should the Fed cut rates? SORRY! I meant, why should we give a tax cut? Clearly, if you think retail spending is increasing, then people have money, right? If they're spending just fine, why give the tax cut? The tax cut is a solution searching for a problem, but FOX News is claiming the problem doesn't exist.

I think you have to admit one of three things is true:

A) The economy is strong enough, that we don't need a Fed rate cut, and we don't need a tax cut.

B) The economy is not strong enough, and the Fed rate cut and/or tax cut might help.

C) Trump is not just bribing voters again, and not just bribing voters on credit again, but bribing voters on credit that he does not have. Considering the number of bankruptcies he has objectively had in the past, and how many investors he's let down in this past, this would be a very easy statement to make, because it fits nearly 30 years of his behavior pattern.

All of this leads to the same place it always does: Trump is objectively failing at everything he said he'd do. I don't remember the Trump promise "consumer spending will go up!" and feel free to link it if you find it. I do remember GDP growth. I do remember jobs. I do remember taxes (and the tariffs have negated the tax cut for the rich on the average Amercian, so no, he didn't do that either). The rabid fanbase is free to defend all they want, fed by "OMG car sales were high in summer what are the odds!" but even they know the truth as they cry into their single scoop of ice cream.

Move the goalposts all you want. I can make the shot from anywhere on the field. Your goalie has tiny hands.

EDIT: Also, I just posted inflation is going up. 0.4% isn't bad, but it's not as good as you think it is, since if prices go up, of course you spend more.

[Breccia]

"With pride" I'd say

Looks like he's hiding behind the old trope "I appointed judges!" which
a) thanks McConnell, you hypocrite, and
b) hell, I could have done that. I could hold a larger pen while doing it.

But as we've just seen, the claims "best economy ever" is increasingly hard to defend. The terms Trump used while running aren't really the terms used now. Yes, unemployment is down, but it was low when he started and the numbers have barely moved. He promised 25 million jobs and he's nowhere near on pace to do that.

He's also calling the Mueller investigation "illegal" and that the people who brought it up committed "treason". That's just dictator locker room talk.

[Belize]

[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/TisjEzL.png?1[/I
"With pride" I'd say

Sounds like he mad. Or is scared.

[Thekri]

Looks like he's hiding behind the old trope "I appointed judges!" which
a) thanks McConnell, you hypocrite, and
b) hell, I could have done that. I could hold a larger pen while doing it.

But as we've just seen, the claims "best economy ever" is increasingly hard to defend. The terms Trump used while running aren't really the terms used now. Yes, unemployment is down, but it was low when he started and the numbers have barely moved. He promised 25 million jobs and he's nowhere near on pace to do that.

He's also calling the Mueller investigation "illegal" and that the people who brought it up committed "treason". That's just dictator locker room talk.

I find it incredibly distressing that he has managed to normalize the use of the word "Treason" when referring to political opposition. The fact both sides call each other Traitors now does not bode well for democracy. Now that isn't saying I am going to stop using the word either, a disturbing amount of his policies certain smell enough like it to have been manufactured in plant that also makes Treason.

[Nellise]

But as we've just seen, the claims "best economy ever" is increasingly hard to defend. The terms Trump used while running aren't really the terms used now. Yes, unemployment is down, but it was low when he started and the numbers have barely moved. He promised 25 million jobs and he's nowhere near on pace to do that.

Clinton was impeached when the GDP was averaging over 4.5% a year.

[Pannonian]

"The two big Congressional wins in North Carolina on Tuesday, Dan Bishop and Greg Murphy, have reverberated all over the World. They showed a lot of people how strong the Republican Party is, and how well it is doing. 2020 is a big, and very important, Election. We will WIN!"

Have to agree, i felt it here!

Oh, that was just the garbage bag falling over ... i really should get it out

[Edge-]

"The two big Congressional wins in North Carolina on Tuesday, Dan Bishop and Greg Murphy, have reverberated all over the World. They showed a lot of people how strong the Republican Party is, and how well it is doing. 2020 is a big, and very important, Election. We will WIN!"

Have to agree, i felt it here!

Oh, that was just the garbage bag falling over ... i really should get it out

BIG WIN! WE BARELY EDGED OUT A DEMOCRAT IN A SAFE REPUBLICAN DISTRICT THAT USUALLY LEADS BY DOUBLE DIGITS! HUGE VICTORY, BIGGEST EVER, MAGA!

The desperation is pathetic. And they were already laying the groundwork to downplay a loss by at least calling the 9th district a "Swing" district...despite it going for Trump by something like 16 points last election.

[s_bushido]

I find it incredibly distressing that he has managed to normalize the use of the word "Treason" when referring to political opposition.

I mean...didn't he literally campaign on a promise to "lock her up?" Seems par for the course to me.

Of course, the irony isn't lost on me that he may be the one facing severe legal fallout once the shield of being POTUS is removed.

[Breccia]

The desperation is pathetic.

Trying to combat voter apathy is much harder to do when you're a pathetic candidate. He won't debate his GOP challengers, but he'll have no choice but to debate the Warren/Cena ticket or whatever that drops bombs like "how's that 2% GDP growth working for you?" on live television.

Can't wait to see Wallace host. He looks calm, but that motherfucker's bringing a verbal blade, just you wait.

[Skroe]

Trying to combat voter apathy is much harder to do when you're a pathetic candidate. He won't debate his GOP challengers, but he'll have no choice but to debate the Warren/Cena ticket or whatever that drops bombs like "how's that 2% GDP growth working for you?" on live television.

Can't wait to see Wallace host. He looks calm, but that motherfucker's bringing a verbal blade, just you wait.

I'll say again.

I bet he goes to the first debate just to recharge the "Media is the enemy" narrative, claim he was treated unfairly, and skip debates 2 and 3.

And he may just hold some kind of rally or stunt, and skip debate 1 and do it.

But I would be shocked if there are 3 debates in the general.

[Elegiac]

I'll say again.

I bet he goes to the first debate just to recharge the "Media is the enemy" narrative, claim he was treated unfairly, and skip debates 2 and 3.

And he may just hold some kind of rally or stunt, and skip debate 1 and do it.

But I would be shocked if there are 3 debates in the general.

Word. After how badly Clinton of all people trounced him in the standard election environment even back in 2017 it didn't seem likely that he would ever agree to a full round of debates in 2020.

And, truth be told, I'm not even expecting him to concede if he does lose. Trump might still have handcuffed himself to the radiator in the Oval Office when inauguration day rolls around and his successor is sworn in.

[Edge-]

Word. After how badly Clinton of all people trounced him in the standard election environment even back in 2017 it didn't seem likely that he would ever agree to a full round of debates in 2020.

And, truth be told, I'm not even expecting him to concede if he does lose. Trump might still have handcuffed himself to the radiator in the Oval Office when inauguration day rolls around and his successor is sworn in.

Oh, he totally will.

He'll do the first debate and lose. But his base will think he won it resoundingly, he'll decry the "FAKE NEWS MEDIA", threaten to pull out of the other debates, and then stay in them because he's a "tough guy" who is going to stand up to the "ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE" while whining like a bitch. And no matter what happens in the other debates, his base will still think he won because he'll claim victory.

[Breccia]

I'm not even expecting him to concede if he does lose.

His family won't allow that. It's one thing to have their patriarch damage the country so they get their estate tax repealed, only to start bringing double/triple helpings of overcooked fatty steaks to the table and waiting.

But it's another to see your family legacy become "attempted tyrant dragged from White House as people cheer and laugh".

Like the Bushes, like the Clintons, the Trump family wants a dynasty, just maybe not President. And you can't make as good an impression when you have to introduce yourself as "Ivanka Clownface Traitor".

Plus, I still think that, if Trump tries that and goes full blown dictator, someone in the Secret Service will just shoot him.

[Kujako]

And, truth be told, I'm not even expecting him to concede if he does lose.

I expect him to stay in the White House, Phantom of the Opera style.

[Pannonian]

Wouldn't be surprised if there are talks with NK, coincidentally at the same date as the TV debates.

Well, at least NK will get a nice deal for helping him hide.

[Breccia]

his base will still think he won because he'll claim victory.

We're seeing it now. I've asked some of them over the last few weeks to answer a simple question, and they won't. They just post "FOX News says good economy" then flee before their safe space is threatened by math or facts.

It's increasingly easy to find objective information that Trump is an objective failure. "He promised a tax cut!" is immediately drowned with "Like the last XXX times and never did it". "The economy is good!" works better when you don't see the fine print "in this one specific sector and we've got horse blinders on the others". "He pushed back the tariffs on China!" is met with "You mean the ones he already escalated? Because he's done that before, too, and the tariffs only went up afterwards, multiple times." North Korea is launching missiles, that could be a long post. Trump wants to negotiate directly with the Taliban terrorists, that's a thread. I could make a wall of text about Wall text.

Which is why we're back to "I appointed judges!" and accusations of crimes for investigating his crimes.

Trump seems to think that all he needs to win is a big burst of approval right before the votes, because it worked last time. It's highly unlikely the Sanders/Minecraft ticket in 2020 will just so happen to have an extra laptop the FBI missed the first time. He can try to make one, "I propose this tax cut! Vote for me, this time I mean it!" but I get the feeling he's not the only one that knows that game. All it would take is, for example, NYState to hand Cummings a big ol' pile of tax returns. Or China to say "fine, you want a trade war, here's 50% tariffs on everything". Or Epstein records to be released.

Trump can't run on his own record. Con men don't give results, they give promises. At some point, irate customers ask for a refund. Most of them skip town. The rest get dragged out of the saloon and beaten. Trump's got 14 months to think about it.

And as for @Skroe 's prediction, eh, I'm still hoping that, if he tries (including GOP primaries), that the networks just say "well, we'll show whoever shows up and lob softball questions over the podium, also Trump's guests can't attend if Trump's not here, that's what 'guest' means". Even FOX might have to get in on that. No matter what Trump tweets at the TV, the moderators don't have to answer him.