Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Rasulis]

Hey remember when Trump sent out all those CDC tests and some of them weren't working? Something about "I don't take responsibility"? Ah, good times...good times...

Anyhow, California asked Trump for medical equipment and some of it isn't working.



A leader makes decisions. A failure makes excuses.

Actually, all 170 units were not working. They all had to be refurbished by Bloom Energy. A solid oxide fuel cell power generator manufacturer in Sunnyvale which currently is refurbishing and repairing ICU ventilators full time. Including the ones from CA stockpile for the H1N1 outbreak in mid 2000s.

Newsom is doing a very good job. Low key but very effective. His popularity is way up. Unless you are the NRA which is suing the state right now.

On the other hand, he is the governor of a state with more biotech/medtech manufacturing than #2 through #10 states combined. Four of the six metro areas that make up 90% of US biotech/medtech manufacturing are in CA. On top of the 170 ventilators your article mentioned and the 1,300 Chinese surplus ventilators donated by Elon Musk, CA biotech/medtech companies have produced another 4,200 ventilators. It is a lot easier for a company like Resmed (they make CPAP machine) to convert their factory to make ventilators than Ford/GM.

He is also sitting on top of 21B surplus. Which allowed him to hire charter flights from Asia to bring in much needed PPE. According to the last briefing, CA has contracts for 200M sets of PPE.

BTW, unless I am mistaken, the # of cases in FL has just surpasses CA today.

[Breccia]

I wanted to ask about this rate and the overall expected number.

Well, the new count is 2,509.

From last time

the death count stands at 2,191

So, today was actually not a bad day, in that the death count only grew by 14%.

The death rate has more traditionally been in the 20% and up range. Slowing down would be fantastic. You know what would help?

Actually, all 170 units were not working.

The opposite of this. Team Trump is now on record (amongst other things) of having broken tests and sending broken equipment.

[Zan15]

BTW, unless I am mistaken, the # of cases in FL has just surpasses CA today.

Gotta get those last few billion dollars in spring break money....cause....umm..."we don't have an income tax!!!"....


the sound of a red hot knife going through their budget surplus and rainy day fund......is all they are going to hear.
hope it was worth it.

[Adam Jensen]

BTW, unless I am mistaken, the # of cases in FL has just surpasses CA today.

Are you telling me, the state that decided to keep its beaches open is now having an increase in COVID cases? Color me shocked.

[Blur4stuff]

I know a lot of stubborn folks in Florida are still in denial over this, but hopefully after this is over and they see the wreckage it will cause them to vote differently.

[Zaydin]

I know a lot of stubborn folks in Florida are still in denial over this, but hopefully after this is over and they see the wreckage it will cause them to vote differently.

They won't. Racist Ron is busy copying his God Emperors playbook and is trying to blame the spread here on those evil New Yorkers who went south. Hopefully the press will remind everyone that Ron is the one who left the beaches and such open because he cared more about milking tourists for money and not harming Trumps reelection bid.

There's also a hotspot brewing in The Villages last I heard, which is going to be 'fun' since it's a massive retirement community with a lot of Trump supporters there.

[PhaelixWW]

I wanted to ask about this rate and the overall expected number. All of these estimates are based on known cases, rate increase of known cases, and then the fatality rate of coronavirus - if I understand what I've read so far (please keep in mind I wasted my seven years of higher education on social sciences, so please keep the words small and simple).

From what I've also read, however, because Team Deplorable fucked up everything from the very beginning, we don't know the number of cases in the U.S., because even now we don't have enough tests to do it accurately.

So won't all these estimates actually be worse?

The estimates are never based solely on known cases, because there are always unknown cases. If they thought they knew all the cases, the expectation would be complete containment, not continued spread.

So once these models come into play, they're based upon estimates of reproductive rates (R0), regardless of the amount of specifically known cases. The number of known cases can help inform the R0 estimates, but there are other ways of attempting to narrow down the range.

The difficulty is that R0 is not intrinsic to the virus. It's just a way of quantifying its capacity to spread, but that can be altered by measures such as we're seeing enacted throughout the world. The other aspect is that the relative R0 of the virus in an area affects the herd immunity threshold in that area. The herd immunity threshold is roughly the percentage of the population that need to be immune (aka, recovered patients) in order to protect the remaining population.

Let's take an R0 value of 2.5, for example. This is roughly what scientists believe the standard R0 value for COVID-19. That means that each person, on average, will infect 2.5 other people while they are infected. An R0 of 2.5 corresponds to a herd immunity threshold of 60%. A basic model based upon this would indicate that 60% of Americans would become infected (200 million), and then some 1-4% of those would die (2 to 8 million).

But the whole point of travel restrictions and "shelter in place" orders are to lower the R0 value by reducing contact between potentially infected people and the uninfected, slowing the spread. This also has synergistic and immensely beneficial effect of flattening the curve in order to put less immediate strain on the health care industry.

So let's now say that we've managed to lower the effective R0 of the virus to 1.3 (similar to the flu) through means of social distancing measures. That changes the herd immunity threshold value to 23%, and perhaps the reduced strain on the health care industry lowers that estimated IFR to 0.5-1.5%. Now, your model indicates only 75 million infected and 375k to 1.1 million dead.

If you can lower the effective R0 below 1, suddenly the virus is losing ground, as people are recovering faster than they're being infected.

TL;DR - The models are all sort of elaborate guesswork, based on estimates which are in turn based up incomplete data. By their very nature, they tend to change as information becomes refined. But they all assume that there are decent numbers of unknown infected continuing to propagate the virus.

- - - Updated - - -

Are you telling me, the state that decided to keep its beaches open is now having an increase in COVID cases? Color me shocked.

I'm sure they were counting on all those fratbois going back to their home states before starting to infect more people with COVID-19. Looks like they decided to spread the love, as it were, before they left, however.

[Breccia]

I know a lot of stubborn folks in Florida are still in denial over this

Data point of one, but, I just had a chat with a guildie of mine who fled to Florida to take care of their parents while things in Florida weren't that bad yet. Because their county only has one confirmed case who's a nurse (don't...just...don't) they felt pretty comfortable going to a packed Wal-Mart, followed by a social evening with a friend they hadn't visited yet.

I figure, I have about two weeks to find a diplomatic way to say "I'm sorry you murdered your 70-year-old parents". Hopefully I don't have to use it.

- - - Updated - - -

Racist Ron is busy copying his God Emperors playbook and is trying to blame the spread here on those evil New Yorkers who went south.

There are two parts to any crisis:
1) How it happens, and
2) How you handle it.

I haven't been watching super closely, but, FL and NY seem to have a fairly similar timeline. Both started closing schools till April 15, then longer, about the same time. They both had their first cases March 1 and both started closing bars and restaurants March 17. FL went longer before declaring a state of emergency by four days.

The real difference is in the details. It seems NY was making big moves every few days to deal with the outbreak. FL did not. The timeline also happened coincidentally at the worst possible convergence of the virus and spring break. March 17 is balls-deep into spring break. Anything you do by then is too late. People don't go to NYC for their spring break, unless they live there, and had recently been told classes were moved to online, which was the case. My students suspected the 11th and knew the 12th. People do go to spring break in FL, but no move was made to stop them until it was too late.

We're seeing right now how NYC is being ravaged by this killer, 776 dead in NYC alone. FL has 60 total. The thing is, NY's rate is decreasing from the early 50's through the 20's to the teens the last two days. FL's rate is constant. And I'm wondering when that other shoe will drop on FL's extensive elderly population. It seems like DeSantis does not give a damn, being called out by locals and their newspapers, while Cuomo, generally speaking, has not.

- - - Updated - - -

So apparently I missed Trump attacking another reporter because of course he did.

A PBS reporter apparently saw Trump's latest interview with Hannity, during which Trump said

I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be. I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they’ll have two ventilators. And now, all of a sudden, they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?’

Trump was then asked to comment on his comments. He immediately denied saying it, yes he denied what he was filmed saying on Hannity's own show, then said

Why don't you act in a little more positive? ... It's always get ya, get ya, get ya. You know what? That's why nobody trusts the media anymore.

That's why you used to work for the Times and now you work for somebody else. Look, let me tell you something. Be nice. Don't be threatening.

There's a lot to unpack here.

First, Trump has no right to say "people don't trust XXX" within literally 10 seconds of objectively lying.

Second, don't fucking diss PBS. The MacNeil/Lehr News Hour is iconic.

Third, he didn't answer the question. Because he had no answer. He deflected by adding a hominem so hard, he could have grabbed it by the pussy.

And fourthly, another reporter gave that same PBS reporter the mic to ask a second question.The question was about the cure being worse than the disease, specifically, which medical professionals or studies told Trump that the number of deaths due to self-quarantining was more than the number of deaths from the disease outright. Trump didn't answer that either, but instead went on a lengthy tirade of the same numbers he has no evidence for, no really, wanna see the video?

tremendous suicides

You're going to see people using drugs like nobody's seen before. People are going to be dying all over the place from drug addiction.

I spoke to great people today, they've done a great job, and one day, they're at the top of their business, they're celebrity chefs, they've got the most successful restaurants, in one day, they have nothing. They've gotten wiped out. One day.

Massive depression, massive drug use, massive suicide

None of which was cited. Because he can't. The evidence doesn't exist. Trump is lying.

Good to know Trump's figures are backed up by Anthony Bordain.

I really do insist you watch the video. There's a good part where he's moved the goalposts to that 2.2 million deaths figure, so that any deaths under that is somehow a win.

[Crispin]

I know a lot of stubborn folks in Florida are still in denial over this, but hopefully after this is over and they see the wreckage it will cause them to vote differently.

Pretty sure we can conclude that Trump voters in generel are in denial.

[ati87]

I know a lot of stubborn folks in Florida are still in denial over this, but hopefully after this is over and they see the wreckage it will cause them to vote differently.

Trump voters will blame everybody except Trump, will do mental gymnastics to justify anything trump does and will argue semantics when needed.

[Orbitus]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/nearly...eopened-campus

Unsurprisingly, Karma is going to bite Falwell and Liberty University in the fucking ass, and I hope each and every fucking one of these students that get sick because of Falwell's incompetence, and they sue them into the fucking ground.

[Deja Thoris]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ealth-disaster

Excellent journalism here from the Guardian Newspaper showing how the USA (Read: Trump) squandered the 6 week headsup they had that the virus was coming.

[Nellise]

Unsurprisingly, Karma is going to bite Falwell and Liberty University in the fucking ass, and I hope each and every fucking one of these students that get sick because of Falwell's incompetence, and they sue them into the fucking ground.

Only problem with hoping they get sick is a bunch that went back to school then left again and probably brought it home with them. Aside from Trump's fuckups, the biggest mishandling of the whole situation is how poorly any tracing has been done in the US. There have been so many stories of people who've been around people showing major symptoms who were allowed to go wherever they felt like it because they weren't showing symptoms, but we know it can be spread easily by asymptomatic people. In my town of about 50k, there was a local news report that the first 2 cases were an elderly couple in their 80s, but zero mention of how they might've have gotten it. I'm pretty sure they hadn't come back from Wuhan 2 months ago or spring break in Florida.

[Breccia]

Unsurprisingly, Karma is going to bite Falwell and Liberty University in the fucking ass, and I hope each and every fucking one of these students that get sick because of Falwell's incompetence, and they sue them into the fucking ground.

Symptomatic, not positive. For now.

I had this whole sarcastic post written up about "their problem is with God, not Falwell" then I read into the situation and realized I couldn't say that honestly.

Among Liberty faculty, there is widespread confusion about what exactly is expected of them during the coronavirus pandemic—much of it driven by a lack of clarity in the university’s own communications. In a March 16 email sent by the university, faculty were told that while their classes would be moved online, they must conduct their classes from their on-campus offices. A March 19 email to faculty reiterated that instructors must be on campus during their class times and office hours. Faculty members were further told that if they wished to avoid being on campus at this time, they should submit requests for consideration to their department chairs, who would then run those requests up the chain of command. And a March 25 email reminded faculty that in order to work from home during the pandemic, they must include an explanation for their request.

And it doesn't help that Falwell is an aggressive liar.

On Wednesday, when I reached Dr. Hyman’s office for comment, an employee consulted with the doctor before speaking on his behalf and distancing Hyman from Falwell’s decision. “He himself has nothing to do with that,” the employee insisted.

After I emailed Falwell about the discrepancy between Hyman’s account and the university’s claim, Liberty quietly revised the statement on its website to excise the doctor’s name: “Falwell said the university has been consulting with medical professionals daily, including a physician from New York’s largest health care provider.” (The article on the Liberty news service website does not include a notice that the story has changed.)

Asked why the school would remove Hyman and other medical professionals’ names, a university spokesperson told me that “many health professionals who provided advice to Liberty University recently began receiving calls from the media. They are private people who do not talk to the media and plan to keep it that way.” When I noted that the office of the medical doctor in question did, in fact, speak to me and denied his involvement with Falwell’s decision, I received no answer.

In the same March 23 statement on Liberty’s site, Falwell claimed that he “received a favorable reaction” when he told Lynchburg’s city manager and mayor about his decision to allow students to return to the dorms. “They thanked us for making that decision,” Falwell said.

Contacted on Wednesday, Lynchburg City Manager Bonnie Svrcek disputed Falwell’s claim. “The city unequivocally does not agree with Falwell’s decision,” Svrcek wrote via email.

According to Svreck, as early as March 16, she and Mayor Treney Tweedy asked Falwell to get in line with the majority of other colleges in the nation by closing the Liberty campus amid the Covid-19 pandemic. (In an interview with the Daily Beast, Svrcek went even further, saying Falwell misled her “to believe that the school was … abandoning plans to invite students back into residence halls following spring break.”)

Falwell and the administration of Falwell University did not actually say "your faith will protect you". And near as I can tell, they didn't violate Virginia law, or they'd be shut down and/or arrested by now -- it's not like this story's a secret. So, yes, if your conflicting, self-contradictory messages and inadequate hygiene bring harm to your students, sue away.

Falwell disputes the story under the ironclad grounds of "because I said so".

[Thekri]

Only problem with hoping they get sick is a bunch that went back to school then left again and probably brought it home with them. Aside from Trump's fuckups, the biggest mishandling of the whole situation is how poorly any tracing has been done in the US. There have been so many stories of people who've been around people showing major symptoms who were allowed to go wherever they felt like it because they weren't showing symptoms, but we know it can be spread easily by asymptomatic people. In my town of about 50k, there was a local news report that the first 2 cases were an elderly couple in their 80s, but zero mention of how they might've have gotten it. I'm pretty sure they hadn't come back from Wuhan 2 months ago or spring break in Florida.

This is something that really bothers me as well. Back when my state had about 40 cases (All of last week, closing in on 1,000 now), I looked at the map and it was in 19 different counties, with no arching narrative explaining how those 40 specific people had contracted it. Which means that when they were reporting 40, we undoubtedly had hundreds, spread across dozens of counties. This disease really only starts attracting attention when it gets into vulnerable populations. By failing to do a good job of tracing, we have to do a reactive approach of rushing to treat symptoms, rather then actually controlling the spread of the disease.

At this point I don't think tracing would help though. So many massive movements of infected populations means that we can logically assume this is literally everywhere. It would have been VERY helpful a month ago, not so much now.

[Breccia]

So Trump went on FOX News and was asked about coronavirus misinformation -- such as China saying "the US Army made it" -- point-blank.

Trump handwaved it.

They do it, and we do it. And we call them different things, and, you know, I make statements that are very strong against China, including the 'Chinese virus,' which has been going on for a long time. I mean, I wouldn't say they were thrilled with that statement.

Hey, every country does it

Well, at least Trump does it.

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I know a lot of stubborn folks in Florida are still in denial over this, but hopefully after this is over and they see the wreckage it will cause them to vote differently.

If you, or anyone, wants to see a quick summary of various governors and their reactions, NBC News has you covered. FL is called out for leaving their beaches open, while Cuomo is called out for bringing the issue to the national stage early and loudly. Guess which gets the better grade?

But we haven't talked about Texas much, have we?

With the nation's second-largest population, the highest uninsured rate in the country and a Legislature that doesn't meet at all in even years, Texas is a state in which the governor's role during a time of crisis is indispensable. Yet Abbott has been behind the curve in nearly every protective measure — declaring a state of emergency, activating the National Guard, ramping up testing capacity, closing bars and restaurants.

[Texas] has shifted much of the emergency response to local municipalities.

It looks like Abbot is going to have to face the cost...ello.

[Thekri]

But we haven't talked about Texas much, have we?

Texas is an interesting case, because the major city centers locked down quite a while ago, but the state has not. Which means all the people that live in the outskirts of those cities are still freely milling about and spreading the disease. Texas's numbers are still surprisingly low, so hopefully the Urban lockdowns are going to help flatten the curve a bit. It would certainly be helpful if the state governments in such places were not actively hindering the cities. The same thing is happening in South Carolina, where the governors office just declared that city lockdowns were not enforceable, since they say only the governor has that authority. Which of course he hasn't used.

It looks like Abbot is going to have to face the cost...ello.

The cost in this case being my parents, who are both ~70 years old and living in the Houston area. Of course they are both Trump supporters, and last I heard their stance on this was "Fake news Hoax", so it is hard to say they aren't contributing to it. Still, it would be really nice if the state government could help keep them safe, rather then encouraging that attitude.

[Dacien]

Okay, we're doing per capita then I guess.



Siiiiiiiiiiiiiike!

Allegedly these are from the same day, though I can't confirm.

[TigTone]

Okay, we're doing per capita then I guess.



Siiiiiiiiiiiiiike!

Allegedly these are from the same day, though I can't confirm.

What’s your point ? US can still have less tests done than other countries but more confirmed cases.

It just means more the tests done by US came
back positive than negative.

[Dacien]

What’s your point ? US can still have less tests done than other countries but more confirmed cases.

It just means more the tests done by US can back positive than negative.

These guys will change how they quantify depending on whether or not it hurts Trump, which I think is kind of noteworthy.