Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Benggaul]

And Trump/his cronies won't explain where the stolen supplies are going. Five bucks says Trump is finding a way to profit off it.

Ten says it's going to states he needs in November.

[Breccia]

Five bucks says Trump is finding a way to profit off it.

He's giving it to Iran.

America First, right?

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And now JH has 38,910. Not far enough under 2,000 to celebrate.

Total is now 40,679. Again, a bit under 2,000. If that stays down, that's actually good news.

[Zaydin]

Total is now 40,679. Again, a bit under 2,000. If that stays down, that's actually good news.

Give it a week or two and it'll spike again thanks to the COVIDiots falling for right-wing lobbyist/billionaires AstroTurfing efforts.

[Mayhem]

This part is highly problematic for many small businesses. Here is a breakdown of CA unemployment by income level.

People making 25k or more will receive maximum unemployment benefit of $450 per week. With the $600 stimulus, that number jumped to $1,050 per week for the next 4 months. Which is equal to $54,600 per year. Here is a graph showing how much more or less people will make from unemployment based on their previous income.

As you can see, unless a business was paying their employees $55,000 or higher, their employees are better off staying on unemployment than on the payroll.

Dude, your math, it gives me headaches.

$450 x 52 = $23400
$600 x 16 = $9600

So they receive $33000 this year compared to just being on unemployment. What the fuck are you talking about 55k?

[PhaelixWW]

Dude, your math, it gives me headaches.

$450 x 52 = $23400
$600 x 16 = $9600

So they receive $33000 this year compared to just being on unemployment. What the fuck are you talking about 55k?

/facepalm

He's not talking about a whole year; he's talking about wages for the duration of the unemployment based on a $55k/yr salary.

[Breccia]

Give it a week or two and it'll spike again thanks to the COVIDiots falling for right-wing lobbyist/billionaires AstroTurfing efforts.

You'll understand I hope you're wrong even if I don't believe you are?

[Rasulis]

Dude, your math, it gives me headaches.

$450 x 52 = $23400
$600 x 16 = $9600

So they receive $33000 this year compared to just being on unemployment. What the fuck are you talking about 55k?

Annualized. So we can compare apple to apple. Either way, unless you make 55k or more, you are better off on unemployment for the next 4 months than being on a payroll.

[Mayhem]

/facepalm

He's not talking about a whole year; he's talking about wages for the duration of the unemployment based on a $55k/yr salary.

Then why write this sentence "As you can see, unless a business was paying their employees $55,000 or higher, their employees are better off staying on unemployment than on the payroll"?

That's just nonsense unless the unemployed are guaranteed to get a job after those 4 months.

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Annualized. So we can compare apple to apple. Either way, unless you make 55k or more, you are better off on unemployment for the next 4 months than being on a payroll.

You are aware that life goes on after these 4 months?

[Zaydin]

You'll understand I hope you're wrong even if I don't believe you are?

Never underestimate the shortsightedness and stupidity of the Trump cult. Getting themselves sick and dying of COVID-19 to 'pwn teh libs'.

The same COVIDIOTs falling for the right wing AstroTurfing are going to end up prolonging lockdowns due to creating new hotspots and outbreaks.

You can also guarantee the right wing billionaires/lobbyists behind the AstroTurfing aren't out in the streets risking their lives, either; they are safe at home chuckling at the rubes who bought their nonsense and are putting their lives at risk.

[Forogil]

You have to be careful with models. We have a saying in statistical analysis, garbage in, garbage out. Basically the model is only as good as the input data.

True in general, but in this case the model is pretty bad on its own as well. So for this model I would say even with gold in you would get garbage out.

Considering that the virus is recent with a lot of unknowns, and in the US we have to deal with 50 states plus territories, all with different responses to the pandemic + income level + demographic + resources, the garbage in factor for modeling the US as a whole is pretty high. It will take some time before they can refine both the model and the input data to the point where we can be confident of the results.

Yes, you would need such details and other countries have attempted to do that, but it takes a lot of data.
E.g. for demographics you don't only need age-distribution, but details about household to see where the people work and go to school; and you need to figure out how people will behave. And then you need data about the virus - including fatality and spread; and all of that is unreliable as well.
And then a model that handles that.

[Poopymonster]

Ten says it's going to states he needs in November.

20 to Russia. They need help according to Trump. Regardless that the US needs them.

[tromage2]

We're living in a reality where we can model how much some policies could impact any desired outcome, in this case is the amount of corpses that the orange cancer has on his hands.
And yeah, good policies could have saved at least 20k+ lives and counting.
All of the death and suffering is Trumps fault.

The models have been wrong tho all over the world.
Even in my own country they first had a model where we thought that the apocalyps arrived.
Then it became lower, then it had gone up because people stayed longer in the hospitals to recover.

The experts also just guess because they are learning about this virus over time, and a month or two months ago they did not know what they are dealing with so they just made models in worst case scenario.

Sweden for example has low deaths with no lock down, and nobody right now know why.
Italy and Spain had a full on lock down, why are their deaths not slowing down in a far faster rate then other countries like Austria? nobody knows. Yesterday i saw some guy say the virus spread is based on humidity in the air is this true? nobody knows because its a new virus and alot is still unknow for us, the experts and yes Trump aswell.

[Draco-Onis]

The models have been wrong tho all over the world.
Even in my own country they first had a model where we thought that the apocalyps arrived.
Then it became lower, then it had gone up because people stayed longer in the hospitals to recover.

The experts also just guess because they are learning about this virus over time, and a month or two months ago they did not know what they are dealing with so they just made models in worst case scenario.

Sweden for example has low deaths with no lock down, and nobody right now know why.
Italy and Spain had a full on lock down, why are their deaths not slowing down in a far faster rate then other countries like Austria? nobody knows. Yesterday i saw some guy say the virus spread is based on humidity in the air is this true? nobody knows because its a new virus and alot is still unknow for us, the experts and yes Trump aswell.

Sweden's numbers are entirely bogus so to claim the models were wrong is ludicrous, you guys aren't even testing. The deaths slowing down is because people heeded the warnings of the models and flattening the curve, your entire premise is pure fantasy. When you are driving if you see a sign that says dead end and turn left you don't go that sign must be wrong because I am not at a dead end.

I know you probably wish it to be true but Sweden is a freaking disaster for its neighbors not to mention the fact that your hospitals are getting decimated as a result.

[Thekri]

The models have been wrong tho all over the world.
Even in my own country they first had a model where we thought that the apocalyps arrived.
Then it became lower, then it had gone up because people stayed longer in the hospitals to recover.

The experts also just guess because they are learning about this virus over time, and a month or two months ago they did not know what they are dealing with so they just made models in worst case scenario.

Sweden for example has low deaths with no lock down, and nobody right now know why.
Italy and Spain had a full on lock down, why are their deaths not slowing down in a far faster rate then other countries like Austria? nobody knows. Yesterday i saw some guy say the virus spread is based on humidity in the air is this true? nobody knows because its a new virus and alot is still unknow for us, the experts and yes Trump aswell.

It isn't really the models that are wrong per se, to a large degree it is the data that is wrong. Every location has a context behind it, with different detection rates, reporting criteria, social distancing adherence, and so forth. We really have no solid way to compare numbers to anything right now, models or otherwise.

That isn't to say the numbers are useless, they are important for understanding trends and trying to get ahead of the spread, but comparison is unhelpful and inaccurate right now.

I am pretty sure the virus doesn't spread in the air per se. You might have heard someone say it can spread with the moisture from someones exhalations, which is the point of the 6 feet/10 feet distancing guidelines. But it isn't free floating in the atmosphere as far as I know.

[Howel]

The models have been wrong tho all over the world.
Even in my own country they first had a model where we thought that the apocalyps arrived.
Then it became lower, then it had gone up because people stayed longer in the hospitals to recover.

The experts also just guess because they are learning about this virus over time, and a month or two months ago they did not know what they are dealing with so they just made models in worst case scenario.

Sweden for example has low deaths with no lock down, and nobody right now know why.
Italy and Spain had a full on lock down, why are their deaths not slowing down in a far faster rate then other countries like Austria? nobody knows. Yesterday i saw some guy say the virus spread is based on humidity in the air is this true? nobody knows because its a new virus and alot is still unknow for us, the experts and yes Trump aswell.

Sweden? The country that is literally over double the death count of its neighbouring nordic countries (averaged out per capita), all whom did do measures; is your great example?

[PhaelixWW]

Then why write this sentence "As you can see, unless a business was paying their employees $55,000 or higher, their employees are better off staying on unemployment than on the payroll"?

I don't think anyone's expecting this lockdown to last a year. It shouldn't come close to lasting 4 months, even. And I think the idea is that many of these people expect to be rehired by their companies once things open back up, sure.

[Breccia]

If anyone is not watching the briefing right now... it's a really good one. Good questions, hilarious rants and melt downs.

Indeed.

Trump was asked why he was congratulating himself, to the point of bringing video clips, when 40,000 are dead.

He claimed he was thanking the people doing the work and directly insulted her intelligence. Oh, and of course, called her Fake News.

Look, you're never going to treat me fairly, many of you, and I understand that. I got here with the worst, most unfair press treatment they say in the history of the United States for a president. They did say Abraham Lincoln had very bad treatment.

Trump has no answers. He wants to present a narrative that is contrary to the facts and boost his numbers, because he can't run on his record.

[Kheirn]

Sweden's numbers are entirely bogus so to claim the models were wrong is ludicrous, you guys aren't even testing. The deaths slowing down is because people heeded the warnings of the models and flattening the curve, your entire premise is pure fantasy. When you are driving if you see a sign that says dead end and turn left you don't go that sign must be wrong because I am not at a dead end.

I know you probably wish it to be true but Sweden is a freaking disaster for its neighbors not to mention the fact that your hospitals are getting decimated as a result.

We're testing those who need hospital care, not everyone who has any form of symptom. That's also why we have a high death per infected ratio. The number's aren't bogus, you just have to extrapolate to estimate total number of infected.

And yeah, as you said, it's slowing because we as a population actively maintain efforts to slow the spread. Of course it's not as heavily as a complete mandated lockdown, but it clearly shows that we're at minimum staying at a linear rate instead of exponential. There's no doubt that our hospitals are strained, but at least we're not operating over capacity.

The potential benefit of this is that we slowly build up an immunity, because if no one is immune it will start to spread again once the lockdown is over unless you somehow managed to completely eradicate it from your country and no one brings it back in again.

It's impossible to say what the "best" course of action is to take long term because we're not there yet, but we're not exactly crashing and burning.

[Breccia]

Supposedly Congress is nearing a deal but not the one I envisioned.

The deal has everything the GOP wants, but also $310 billion in PPP funds, $75 billion for hospitals, and possibly some $25 billion for testing.

There is no money for state and local governments, and nothing for food stamps -- which I didn't even know was supposed to be in there.

The GOP have said "next time" on both of those.

[Thekri]

Trump has no answers. He wants to present a narrative that is contrary to the facts and boost his numbers, because he can't run on his record.

So Abraham Lincoln was treated badly, eh? Aside from the probability that Trump has no idea who Lincoln actually was, it is somewhat confusing what bad treatment he is referring too. Is he considering it poor treatment that half the country told him to fuck off, and went to war to enforce this decision? Is he considering it poor treatment when he got shot in the head? Or is he restricting it to poor treatment by the press, as in the Press treated Lincoln badly.

If the later, that is amusingly untrue, as Lincoln completely suspended the first amendment, in practice if not in law. Him and his Secretary of War shut down at least a dozen newspapers, and jailed the editors for publishing stories that were deemed harmful to the war effort, including pieces critical of Lincoln's handling of the war. So the press wasn't really "unfair" to Lincoln, because they were not allowed to be.

So two choices here, either Trump is being clueless, or someone told him the substance of the above, and he is hinting at doing the same thing. So once again, Trumpsters get to choose if he is being Stupid or Evil. All of Trump's comments need to be explained as either stupid or evil, because there really isn't another option for them.