Russia long saw Donald Trump as the wild card in its strategy to improve relations with the United States.
But 14 months after he became U.S. president, Moscow is close to viewing him as a busted flush, unable to enact his pledge for better ties.
Trump reluctantly signed off on new sanctions against Moscow last summer over allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Last week he backed the expulsion of 60 Russian diplomats and the closure of Russia’s Seattle consulate over the poisoning of an ex-Russian agent in Britain.
After betting the farm on Trump, Russia has seen relations with the West sink so low that there is talk of a new Cold War. President Vladimir Putin’s options for a change of strategy, banking less on Trump and his ability to sway those around him on Russia, is severely limited as he prepares for a new term.
One option being explored is to try to widen splits in the West by courting France and Germany. Another is to draw closer to China and India. But the relationship with Washington is still seen in Moscow as central to Russian foreign policy.
“Washington has become fixated with the fight against a non-existent, so-called Russian threat,” Sergei Naryshkin, Russia’s foreign intelligence agency chief, said on Wednesday.
“This has reached such proportions and acquired such absurd characteristics that it’s possible to speak of a return to the dark times of the Cold War.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier this week that the standoff was worse than during the Cold War between East and West after World War Two.
“...Then some kind of rules and appearances were kept up. Now, as I see it, our Western partners ... have cast aside all proprieties,” Lavrov said.
Trump’s appointment of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, whom Moscow regards as arch Russia hawks, to key foreign policy posts last month has further soured the mood in Moscow, say analysts and people close to Russian decision makers.
When it comes to the United States, these sources say Moscow is not willing to change course, make concessions or launch new initiatives.
Russia will therefore continue to engage only if and when the United States is ready to do so, and, if faced with more hostile action - such as further diplomatic expulsions - will respond in kind, the people close to decision makers say.
“All we can do is keep the doors open for negotiation and wait and see what will happen. That’s the predominant view,” said Andrey Kortunov, head of a think-tank close to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
In particular, Moscow is keeping the door open to a possible summit between Trump and Putin, an idea floated by Trump, and is also keen for U.S.-Russia talks on strategic nuclear stability to avoid a costly arms race.
But its baseline scenario is a downward spiral in ties.
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Washington is the standard bearer of a new Cold War,” Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy expert close to the Kremlin, wrote in government daily Rossiyskaya Gazeta after last week’s U.S. diplomatic expulsions.
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There’s no point in hoping for an improvement in ties or any progress in any area for the foreseeable future,” said Lukyanov, who has warned the Russian elite to brace for sweeping Iran-style financial sanctions.