Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Doctor Amadeus]

Well Chris Rock seems to think arresting Trump will make him sell more albums like Tupac and CNN's Van Jones seems to think that Alvin Bragg should stand down. Weird!

[Jaransan]

Honestly, this whole thing is kinda disappointing. I had hoped, after so much time had passed, that they’d have more against Trump than this weak case involving Daniel’s. Pretty sure this is gonna sizzle out very quickly.

The legal system is fairly bottom heavy. The number of people who are assigned to low level crime and low profile cases - you know, the legal system as it applies to poor people 99% of the time - is drastically larger than the number and quality of people that are typically assigned to high end cases that apply to people who can afford to truly fight back.

Its the same with taxes, even. The irs has tons of time and money to catch every dollar the average mcdonalds employee makes, but so few people to look into the taxes of even a single billionaire that even trying is practically a lost cause.

Crazy how that tends to work out to ‘being rich means you generally get to ignore the law’

[time0ut]

I suspect it comes down to the fact the Daniels case is fairly straightforward, as cases go. Bribe paid with campaign money, so a black and white offense, and the man who arranged it is willing to testify, so you have a credible witness. There's not much else to investigate which means it advances faster than more complicated charges.

My feeling is it's just the tip of the iceberg.

Is this true? I am just catching up on the whole thing and found this article when searching for what he is accused of: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65012096.amp.

It doesn’t sound like he is accused of using campaign money. It sounds like maybe the opposite. It also does not sound that it is black and white. It actually sounds pretty weak.

Do you have a better source I could look at?

[Breccia]

Add Sen. Graham to the list of Republicans saying Trump shouldn't be indicted because they don't want him to.

Interestingly, the excuse here (and a few other places) was "the previous AG didn't charge". First, everyone found that odd. Second, if changed roles by election or appointment never changed the actions or policies of the office, why have elections or appointments? We'd still have slaves and women couldn't vote.

[Zaydin]

So it's being alleged that the Special Counsel is claiming that Trump knowingly lied to/misled his lawyers about the classified documents he stole.

If it turns out to be true, on a scale of 1 to 10, how screwed is Trump?

[Breccia]

So it's being alleged that the Special Counsel is claiming that Trump knowingly lied to/misled his lawyers about the classified documents he stole.

If it turns out to be true, on a scale of 1 to 10, how screwed is Trump?

If proven true, arguably 0. We've discussed this before, but tricking your lawyers into lying for you might not actually be illegal.

[Elder Millennial]

After watching Trump publicly avoid legal consequences for a million things where people just enabling, serving or assisting him went to jail, here's my take.

1. Trump will absolutely not get arrested. It just won't happen. The DoJ would slap down any such attempts if the AG in NY would consider moving forward with this. The political consequences are too high.

2. Trump will not be prosecuted. Not for Jan 6. Not for Stormi Daniels, not for anything. And on the odd chance he might get charged with something, the courts will eventually throw it out under some flimsy pretense or other or give him some procedural out.

Trump could pull a gun and shoot Mike Pence in the face on live TV on Fox News and he wouldn't see a jail cell.

Anyone who thinks otherwise, is 100 times more delusional than the people who thought Matt Gaetz will get charged for sleeping with underage girls.

The Democrats won't dare to risk the scandal, and Garland is spineless.

Everyone is welcome to fantasize about Trump actually having to face consequences for his endless list of crimes for another 4000 pages, that doesn't mean it will ever happen.

[Zaydin]

If proven true, arguably 0. We've discussed this before, but tricking your lawyers into lying for you might not actually be illegal.

I dunno, one would imagine being lied to by your client is incentive for a lawyer to turn states evidence against said client.

[Breccia]

I dunno, one would imagine being lied to by your client is incentive for a lawyer to turn states evidence against said client.

I'm not sure they can. Lawyers have a ton of restrictions about what they can't do involving a client or potential client.

That said, the option that seemed realistic to me was "if Trump lied to me to get me to lie to the feds, that's technically a conspiracy to obstruct justice, and privilege no longer applies". It's a suicide bomb move, but under the circumstances, the prosecutors would probably offer a deal like you suggested to the lawyer.

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Of note: Trump has the potential defense of proving Cohen told him the payments were legal. In other words, plead ignorance and incompetence of the law, and that he was tricked.

One, considering the context we were just talking about, Trump will have a hard time convincing a judge he was lied to by a lawyer and fell for it, when we have evidence he lied to his lawyers and they fell for it.

Two, this is an affirmative defense...I think...and Trump would need more than his useless word. He would need communication from Cohen that backs it up, which Cohen couldn't contradict.

[Nymrohd]

If proven true, arguably 0. We've discussed this before, but tricking your lawyers into lying for you might not actually be illegal.

It probably does allow them to dump you with no breach of contract and no other repercussions from their association.

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Crazy how that tends to work out to ‘being rich means you generally get to ignore the law’

Realistically the level of skill and knowledge needed for someone to succeed in opposing the rich means that person would be vastly better paid in private practice than they ever could be in public work. So the question is pretty simple. Is society willing to pay for the skills required to hold these people accountable? Because if it is, it can be done. But we all know the answer to that.

[Slirith]

After watching Trump publicly avoid legal consequences for a million things where people just enabling, serving or assisting him went to jail, here's my take.

1. Trump will absolutely not get arrested. It just won't happen. The DoJ would slap down any such attempts if the AG in NY would consider moving forward with this. The political consequences are too high.

2. Trump will not be prosecuted. Not for Jan 6. Not for Stormi Daniels, not for anything. And on the odd chance he might get charged with something, the courts will eventually throw it out under some flimsy pretense or other or give him some procedural out.

Trump could pull a gun and shoot Mike Pence in the face on live TV on Fox News and he wouldn't see a jail cell.

Anyone who thinks otherwise, is 100 times more delusional than the people who thought Matt Gaetz will get charged for sleeping with underage girls.

The Democrats won't dare to risk the scandal, and Garland is spineless.

Everyone is welcome to fantasize about Trump actually having to face consequences for his endless list of crimes for another 4000 pages, that doesn't mean it will ever happen.

100% this sadly

[Nymrohd]

After watching Trump publicly avoid legal consequences for a million things where people just enabling, serving or assisting him went to jail, here's my take.

1. Trump will absolutely not get arrested. It just won't happen. The DoJ would slap down any such attempts if the AG in NY would consider moving forward with this. The political consequences are too high.

2. Trump will not be prosecuted. Not for Jan 6. Not for Stormi Daniels, not for anything. And on the odd chance he might get charged with something, the courts will eventually throw it out under some flimsy pretense or other or give him some procedural out.

Trump could pull a gun and shoot Mike Pence in the face on live TV on Fox News and he wouldn't see a jail cell.

Anyone who thinks otherwise, is 100 times more delusional than the people who thought Matt Gaetz will get charged for sleeping with underage girls.

The Democrats won't dare to risk the scandal, and Garland is spineless.

Everyone is welcome to fantasize about Trump actually having to face consequences for his endless list of crimes for another 4000 pages, that doesn't mean it will ever happen.

Yeah, I don't know what people expect here. Maybe there might be some slap on the wrist charge. Maybe.

[Shadowferal]

Late night shenanigans

A U.S. appeals court is expected to rule shortly on whether Trump attorney Evan Corcoran can appear before a grand jury in Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago classified documents case.

The move comes after a dizzying saga overnight, in which the U.S. Department of Justice and attorneys for Trump filed dueling motions over Corcoran’s testimony. At the heart of the battling motions is a Friday ruling in which a federal judge reportedly sided with the DOJ, finding that Corcoran could be compelled to testify because prosecutors had sufficient evidence Trump may have used one of his defense attorneys in an alleged bid to mislead investigators.

According to MSNBC commentator Tristan Snell, the move is “completely unheard of.” He wrote on Twitter: “Normally that process would take MONTHS. Instead they’re making the lawyers submit everything in HOURS.”

[s_bushido]

I hope so cause yesterday was a whole lotta nothing.

Yes, that's what tends to happen when you take Trump at his word. Trust a liar, get lied to.

[Breccia]

I hope so cause yesterday was a whole lotta nothing.

Yes, Trump said something would happen yesterday and people believed him.

[ringpriest]

Yes, Trump said something would happen yesterday and people believed him.

I cannot know what motivated Trump, but I will observe that his "THEY ARE COMING TO GET ME" narrative successfully drew a lot of mass media coverage away from last Friday's finding (mentioned upthread) by retiring Judge Howard that another Trump lawyer is losing attorney-client protections because he conspired to commit crimes with Trump.

That would be the fourth one, for those keeping score.

[DarkTZeratul]

I’m vaguely following this story. I have no idea who said what, or why Trump was saying that he was getting arrested yesterday.

Trump claimed he would be arrested on Tuesday. Basically everyone else in a position to know said nothing about it at all. Right-wing media and politicians whined about it anyway. As for why he said it, there are basically two options:
1. He's paranoid and delusional and thought it was true.
2. He knew it was false but said it anyway to stir up support among the media and his followers, and to bilk them out of even more money by soliciting donations and selling them expensive but cheaply made "Free Donald Trump" commemorate crap.

If it was indeed the second one, he succeeded brilliantly,

[s_bushido]

I have no idea who said what, or why Trump was saying that he was getting arrested yesterday. .

He probably heard that something was coming down the pipeline, and simply couldn't help himself... It got him attention, put his name back in the headlines, and gave him a fundraising opportunity. Win-win for the narcissist conman.

[Breccia]

I cannot know what motivated Trump, but I will observe that his "THEY ARE COMING TO GET ME" narrative successfully drew a lot of mass media coverage away from last Friday's finding (mentioned upthread) by retiring Judge Howard that another Trump lawyer is losing attorney-client protections because he conspired to commit crimes with Trump.

Indeed, I posted on the topic but it didn't get the media draw. I don't know if Trump smokescreened that on purpose, they were a few days apart, but it could have been intentional and it could have worked.

Well as long as Trump doesn't bring it up, it m--

Prosecutors only attack lawyers when they have no case whatsoever.

These leaks are happening because there is no factual or legal basis or substance to any case against Trump
-- Trump via spokesperson yesterday

Nevermind.

Now @Shadowferal already noted that Corcoran is in the vice and it's twisting closed. Corcoran has hours to turn things over. Surfing various sources, it seems like the DOJ was given until 6AM to explain why, and the DOJ wrote a 6,000 word novella on the topic. So let that be a lesson next time you forget your assignment is due on time, Adrian.

(Your name's probably not Adrian but imagine how surprised you'd be if it was)

The DOJ response could easily be "Judge Howell saw there was proof and showed us" hundreds and hundreds of times, honestly. Judges don't break confidentiality on whim, even retiring ones who could be sued, disbarred and/or jailed for that shit.

The rush is still the “completely unheard of" part. A 3-judge panel is deciding if it gets slowed at all. It can't be about deleting the messages because the DOJ already has them. Or the rest of the evidence, which again, the FBI has taken from Mar-a-Lago. But it can be about, for example, Corcoran deciding he's committed a felony in front of 7 billion people on live TV and running. Or, potentially, the need to search other Trump properties before more stolen documents Trump's not allowed to have and has claimed he doesn't have are moved elsewhere or destroyed. I would bet good money that the FBI has people watching choice Trump properties for suspicious activity. Trump has not been forthcoming, even with his own lawyer, when dealing with law enforcement. And the term for that is "obstruction of justice".

Or!

It could be the rush is because of an upcoming indictment. Two things we've mentioned before are at play. One, the DOJ could be intentionally going after known criminal Trump when he's distracted and can't fight back. Two, it could be an order of operations thing, where whoever slaps the cuffs on Trump first gets to drag him to jail. Maybe the FBI knows their charges are far stronger than NY's and want Trump locked up for years, not a few months or fined.

What we also know, is that the 3-judge panel has asked Team Trump to name the items they think are privileged and they think shouldn't be turned over. This has got to have them flustered and panicking. "In which text exchange did we admit a felony?" they're asking themselves, because telling the judges "all of it" is going to be met with "no, you don't get blanket privilege, DOJ fire at will". The fact alone that the 3-judge panel is asking Trump to put up or shut up cannot be good news for Trump.

Corcoran is not the only lawyer involved, just the one currently in the crosshairs. Look for Bobb and Little to show up later, but for now, Corcoran knows for a fact he told the feds they gave back everything, and the feds know for a fact that's flat out false. Corcoran should already know he's in serious trouble, but if he and Trump discussed the topic at all, then that leaves only two options:
1) Trump lied to Corcoran, which matches recent stories thanks @Zaydin and others, and the DOJ/judges now have to decide what it means when Trump gets someone to lie to the feds by proxy when they have proof that's what happened. If that's the case, Corcoran would reeeeeeeeeeeeeeally want the DOJ to see that he was tricked so he doesn't go to jail, and might consider tanking his job/breaking privilege just to save himself.
2) Trump and Corcoran conspired to lie to the feds, privilege is scrapped, and there is objective evidence of conspiracy to obstruct justice. Trump dies in prison.

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1. He's paranoid and delusional and thought it was true.

I mean, Trump could have been told by someone in a place to know. It would not surprise me at all if he had some hand-me-down snitches from Giuliani. It might not be about paranoia...this time.

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Seems to have indeed sizzled out tho

The thing that sizzled out was Trump saying something specific that was false. There has been no changes in the NY case, it is still ongoing, and the grand jury's recommendations are still in play.

[fwc577]

I’m vaguely following this story. I have no idea who said what, or why Trump was saying that he was getting arrested yesterday.

Seems to have indeed sizzled out tho… for the time being, I guess.

My guess? He was told to expect and indictment and it could be as early as Tuesday. So he ran with "Tuesday I'm getting arrested MAGA" or some bullshti.

It isn't happening today either. The grand jury deciding on the indictment isn't meeting today.

If it does happen, I suspect it's Friday and an arraignment early next week (Monday or Tuesday).

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