Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Draco-Onis]

That was my message back in '16.
That will not be my message for '24.

As a rule I try not to underestimate human stupidity nor the DNC's uncanny ability to steal defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Lenonis]

Trump knows sociology, and how it interacts with psychology and power. His support seems to be rebounding. He gets more press now than any non-incumbent ever at this stage of a Presidential election.

I think you VASTLY overestimate Trump's ability to command headlines and manipulate narratives as some sort of 4D chess maneuver. We saw a lot of the "he's playing 4D chess and being brilliant" commentary when he is in office when in reality he was just an extremely loud pigeon shitting all over the board.

Here's the reality:
- He's a quasi-charismatic figure to a narrow base of absolutely fanatical followers who amplify his message.
- He surrounds himself with yes-men who do know more than him about how things work and seek to protect and enable him. That is until they inevitably upset him and he turns on them.
- He has a bunch of politicians and media figures who support him and amplify his message for their own gain

Much of that has very little to do with Trump's ability to strategize. In fact his impulsiveness driven from his narcissism and sense of being untouchable is what led to his first downfall and is actively contributing to his second.

Underestimate him at your own risk.

It's not Trump he have to underestimate - he's not going to change or pull out some massive sneak attack. His playbook is well known. He's just going to try to DARVO his way back into office.

We shouldn't underestimate the Trump cult. Both in terms of their zeal to vote as well as their willingness to go to any extremes, including violent ones, to get him back in office.

[Shadowferal]

The GOP has already made the mistake of underestimating the issue of pro-choice. And it seems they're going to continue with their stupidity on that issue.

[Lenonis]

The GOP has already made the mistake of underestimating the issue of pro-choice. And it seems they're going to continue with their stupidity on that issue.

They have no choice. They courted the extreme faction of their base and now they are stuck in a situation where they have to cater to a minority of voters to get anything through a primary but then are stuck with stances that are toxic to everyone else. To win the current GOP primary you have to be an extreme candidate who is not palatable in a general election.

The GOP screwed themselves. Couldn't happen to a nicer party.

[Breccia]

You're forgetting the third kind: non-ideological opportunistic grifters.

I don't think they're donating yet. They're sitting this round out, waiting to see who wins. DeSantis and even Pence would pick the same zealously pro-life pro-gun-murder anti-brown-people judges and bills as Trump would, they don't want to burn their bridges too soon.

- - - Updated - - -

Speaking of former Trump employees who--

"I think you mean 'former US government employees who worked in Trump's tenure' they didn't work for Trump."

Actually, in this case, they did, because Trump required that NDA and fired anyone not loyal to Trump. So, no, they weren't working for the country. Anyhow, Michael Bolton. Fuck. John Bolton. I don't know why I keep doing that.

This is a devastating indictment. I speak here as an alumnus of the Justice Department myself, because not only is it powerful, it’s very narrowly tailored. They didn’t throw everything up against the wall to see what would stick that this really is a rifle shot. And I think it’s, it should be the end of Donald Trump’s political career.

I hoped the Justice Department really does try for a speedy trial, because frankly, the sooner it goes to a jury, and we find out their answer, whatever, whatever that answer is going to be the better for the country. Justice delayed, as they say, is justice denied and the court should not let Donald Trump get the kind of delay I suspect he wants/

Apparently, Bolton specifically and directly called on Trump to

Donald Trump should immediately withdraw as a candidate for president. Criminal charges are piling up around him. If Trump truly stood for America First policies, he would support the rule of law instead of continually flouting it. Withdraw now!

We all know why -- Bolton's loyalty to party over Trump is part of it, and classic conservatives are convinced the Republican Party and the USA will both lose if a convicted felon runs for office. The USA already took multiple hits when Trump praised literal torch-carrying Nazis, got laughed out of the UN, "it's just one person coming from China"-d a million people to death and sucked off North Korea. A candidate under indictment getting a big market share is something that's supposed to happen in third- or even fourth-world countries, and there's minimal chance that indy voters will choose someone who can only give the SotU during visiting hours. Democrats would increase their 2022 gains, they fear, and quite frankly I think they're right (I keep going on and on about splitting the party and why mathematically it leads to an EC blowout).

Bolton is not alone. In addition to the other former Trump employees, add Eric Holder, who was of course Obama's not Trump's AG, but likely as well-versed in the relevant law as, say, William Barr is.

And he brings up another option.

Well, the notion that you could have a trial, defend it, be convicted, somehow win the election, be sworn in as a president, or whenever it happens, that seems inconsistent with our notion of fairness, of the rule of law. At that point, I would hope that it impeachment proceeding might be considered. Not only considered, brought. And, ultimately, he would be moved from office.

The notion that a convicted felon, convicted felon, would serve as president of the United States is absurd. It’s simply absurd.

For Holder's optimism to succeed, the aforementioned gains would have to be made, because there is a minority of GOP members ready to vote against Trump, not a majority. If Dems and/or classic Republicans increase their ratios, say, because there are 200-300 people running in Trump's new third party and those votes get split too, Trump's third impeachment could in fact be his last.

Run that scenario with the 2022 elected officials and I think they keep him.

I’m not a political pundit, but I think at some point, you certainly won’t get beyond, you know, the Trump cult base, but for people who are on the fringes of that, the outside of that, are likely to have been negatively impacted by all of these cases brought against the former president. I think that that will have some electoral effect. And so, the likelihood that he’ll be able to survive this and win a general election, I think, is pretty small.

It's not just Republicans saying that Trump is bad for their party. However, non-Republicans saying it (and being right) isn't enough. The GOP/RNC will have to actually DO SOMETHING! to keep the current situation from boiling over. There are three options for them:
1) Trump wins the GOP nomination and, again, probably costs the GOP 2024 as well. He did it three times already.
2) Trump loses the GOP nomination and choses not to run third party. This is what classic conservatives are begging him to do, Bolton above is the best example, as it seems to be their best chance to defeat non-criminal Joe Biden and a country that's actually in pretty good shape.
3) Trump loses the GOP nomination, runs third-party, and Democrats sweep.

"Isn't there a fourth category? Trump winning?"

Only if you're a Trump voter. Already unable to tell the difference between fact and fantasy, they choose to live in a world where the stockpile of evidence doesn't matter and Trump should be freed because Clinton's emails...failing to grasp the very act of saying Clinton was bad for deleting emails means Trump must be just as bad for stealing documents. Yes, these increasingly literally insane people can still vote for Trump, in the US they have that right. But Trump keeps telling them they're the majority and they keep believing him. And if he's convicted, I suspect some will stay home instead of voting (they don't believe in mailed ballots for...some reason) and I suspect few will realize that literally any GOP member will pardon Trump just to shore up their numbers.

- - - Updated - - -

Newsweek just floated a Trump headline into my feed. Let's see what it says.

Donald Trump's Lawyers Could Bring About His Downfall

Hmm, that doesn't seem like the right one. Let's take a quick look.

According to The New York Times on Sunday, the notes made by Corcoran, identified in the indictment as "Trump Attorney 1," were more damaging than previously known. Corcoran's notes were extensive, and dictated into the Voice Memos app on his iPhone after meeting with Trump, the newspaper reported.

The indictment said Trump directed his aide, Walt Nauta, to remove documents from a storage room at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida to prevent Corcoran from finding them during his search. Nauta was also charged in the indictment with helping to conceal documents.

According to Corcoran's notes, the former president also suggested to Corcoran that he falsely tell government officials that he did not have any sensitive documents to turn over after receiving a subpoena.

Okay, maybe I didn't know every single word of that was in Corcoran's notes found from pierced privilege. Surely when the case moves forward, he'll be put on the stand by the prosecution. Still, that's mostly stuff we knew. I'll keep looking.

Fox News Gives Donald Trump a Reality Check

I don't think that was it either, but I'll take the free point.

After a pro-Trump tirade against a "weaponized" justice system made by co-host Jeanine Pirro, political strategist Jessica Tarlov, one of the rotating co-hosts on the show and a Fox News contributor since 2017, said that the evidence against the former president was clear.

"There were documents found in the bathroom, in the shower, in the ballroom, in his bedroom, in his office," Tarlov said. "There were documents pertaining to our nuclear programs, pertaining to our weaknesses and our allies' weaknesses, what makes us vulnerable—clearly a national security risk."

Tarlov said that: "What has been proven time and time again when it comes to this particular case is that Donald Trump and his supporters have been lying to us about what happened."

She continued: "First he went with 'everything is declassified' because he's magic and he can look at things and they become declassified. Now he's on tape admitting the fact that he's showing people [...] a document that was still classified and that he knows that he doesn't have the power to declassify anymore because he's no longer president."

When interrupted by the other co-hosts joking about the fact that finding classified documents in a bathroom is better than finding them in a Corvette—referring to classified documents found in President Joe Biden's personal garage in January—Tarlov accused her colleagues of "misdirection."

She also deflected her colleagues' attempts to compare Trump's case with that of Hillary Clinton, who was found in 2016 to have used her private email while she was secretary of state.

"This has nothing to do with Hillary Clinton," she said. "If you want to argue about the difference between gross negligence and extremely careless, a lot of people have that conversation. But today you're looking at boxes of classified documents strewn across a public place."

Tarlov was outnumbered 4:1 but the fact that it made it out was highly shared for obvious reasons.

Again, FOX News openly saying Trump is a lying loser criminal is big news, but still not what I thought I saw.

Wait, I found it!

So Trump did an interview with Politico, this interview right here. A lot of it is what you expect: Trump saying it's all political, Trump saying he can pardon himself, Trump saying he did nothing wrong, Trump talking about his polling numbers, "thugs and degenerates", "never going to leave", etc.

*ahem*

But.

Trump predicted he would not be convicted and said he did not anticipate taking a plea deal, though he left open the possibility of doing so “where they pay me some damages.”

Yep, that's right. Trump asked the federal government to pay him to take a plea deal.

Yeah, it's @cubby time. Hey cubby, is it a standard thing, or even a substandard thing, for the cops to pay for damages caused by a lawfully executed search warrant? I'm guessing "no" and adding "nothing was damaged."

"Trump might be suggesting he was defamed, when law enforcement called him a criminal for all those crimes he commited. He was schooled on that recently."

No, I don't think that's it. One, they sued and he fought that. Two, if he pleads guilty he admits he's guilty and therefore he wasn't defamed.

So there you go, Trump's stance on all of this: pay me.

Now this may have been a hypothetical and he may have been lying. The fact that Trump even suggested it telling enough.

[Kathranis]

Trump knows sociology, and how it interacts with psychology and power.

Oh, horseshit.

Trump has a sort of low cunning and charisma that attracts the same kinds of people who think the prosperity gospel and professional wrestling are real. Between that, his privileged upbringing, and his narcissistic personality disorder, he has managed to achieve and maintain a degree of success and wealth by ripping off and ultimately backstabbing those who have been stupid enough to fall for his schemes.

He is not some calculating confidence man. He's an egomaniac who will brazenly and carelessly lie, cheat, and steal to achieve his desires, and in that process he makes stupid mistakes for petty reasons. The only reason he's really managed to avoid serious prosecution up until now is by cutting deals, making himself useful to the political establishment, and surrounding himself with sycophants to take the fall for him.

You can rightly point out that he's dangerous and evasive, but attributing that to intelligence or wisdom is a lie.

[diller]

Trump acts stupider than he really is. He really WAS President for 4 years, and he could very well get another 4.

Trump knows sociology, and how it interacts with psychology and power. His support seems to be rebounding. He gets more press now than any non-incumbent ever at this stage of a Presidential election.

Underestimate him at your own risk.

He barely knows left from right.

[Edge-]

Matt Damon and Ben Affleck’s Production Studio ‘Did Not Consent’ to ‘Air’ Monologue in Donald Trump Campaign Ad

Standard Trump; don't even ask for consent before grabbing them by the-cough... Sorry, that was something else. I meant don't even ask before getting consent. Wait, that's isn't really much better, is it?

Yeah, pretty typical approach to just taking, and using, any sort of media they see, whether they have permission or not. Easier to do it right away, have people see it, and then maybe take it down when someone says you have no actual permission to do so.

Trump has never asked for consent once in his life and he's not about to start in his 70's.

At some point you figure there has to be some kind of legal consequence for this continued theft by Trump and his campaign, but I guess instead it will just continue to show how nobody actually likes him and wants to allow him to use their creative works.

I'm sure he can get the Freedom Kids to sing at his next show. They'll be a bit older now, though. Maybe too old for that crowd.

Though I'm not sure if he actually ever ended up paying them or if he stiffed them on the bill, too.

[Edge-]

https://newrepublic.com/post/173564/...ump-indictment

Republican lawmakers are now calling to defund the DoJ because Trump got indicted.

They're taking the "#DefundThePolice" stuff to the next level!

[Edge-]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/5d99...protests-miami

Supporters of former president Donald Trump are planning mass protests at a Miami courthouse on Tuesday, following Trump’s indictment last week. Many are promising to come “well-armed.”

“MAGA will make Waco look like a tea party,” a user with the screen name 1776take2 wrote about the planned protest on the pro-Trump messaging board known as The Donald, which was instrumental to the planning of the Capitol riot. “I used to laugh when my mom said that she was afraid if she registered Republican she may be arrested one day. I’m not laughing any more. Just buying more ammo.”

Hopefully this is more baseless angry rhetoric from the Gravy Seals and Y'all Qaeda before tomorrow. But we'll see.

I see some Republicans are already trying to pretend that their fairly explicit calls to violent action weren't actually calls to violent action and how could people take their words seriously, rofl.

[Benggaul]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/5d99...protests-miami



Hopefully this is more baseless angry rhetoric from the Gravy Seals and Y'all Qaeda before tomorrow. But we'll see.

I see some Republicans are already trying to pretend that their fairly explicit calls to violent action weren't actually calls to violent action and how could people take their words seriously, rofl.

Cool. The more extreme they go the more support they lose (and the more get locked up for felonies and are unable to vote again).

[Sunseeker]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/5d99...protests-miami



Hopefully this is more baseless angry rhetoric from the Gravy Seals and Y'all Qaeda before tomorrow. But we'll see.

I see some Republicans are already trying to pretend that their fairly explicit calls to violent action weren't actually calls to violent action and how could people take their words seriously, rofl.

Y'allqueda seems to forget Waco ended in a massacre of the Davidians. Aside from the deaths of 4 ATF officers, the worst thing on the governments end was a lot of bad PR. The other side ya know, died horribly.

[Edge-]

Y'allqueda seems to forget Waco ended in a massacre of the Davidians. Aside from the deaths of 4 ATF officers, the worst thing on the governments end was a lot of bad PR. The other side ya know, died horribly.

As if this is difficult to spin as "martyrs" dying for their cause against a tyrannical government.

Literally how Waco is discussed in extreme right wing circles already, so they've got the playbook ready to go.

[gondrin]

Y'allqueda seems to forget Waco ended in a massacre of the Davidians. Aside from the deaths of 4 ATF officers, the worst thing on the governments end was a lot of bad PR. The other side ya know, died horribly.

The other part that came out of Waco was the Oklahoma City bombing. I am hoping that is not what they meant but could easily be.

[Edge-]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2356150.html

“I WILL APPOINT A REAL SPECIAL “PROSECUTOR” TO GO AFTER THE MOST CORRUPT PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY OF THE USA, JOE BIDEN, THE ENTIRE BIDEN CRIME FAMILY, & ALL OTHERS INVOLVED WITH THE DESTRUCTION OF OUR ELECTIONS, BORDERS, & COUNTRY ITSELF!” fumed Mr Trump in an all-caps rant posted around noon.

It was a stunning declaration that throws the future of America’s justice system into question as such a move would wholly eliminate the independence and integrity of the Department of Justice, should he be successful.

Much like, "LOCK HER UP!", Trump is once again explicitly promising to weaponize the federal government against his political opponents.

You know, that thing Republicans keep saying Biden is doing (he isn't) and that's so bad and terrible? Yeah, that.

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sen-mar...al-indictment/

So it appears the current line for Republicans defending Trump is,

"Well nobody got killed or harmed according to the indictments so these charges are all political!"

Boy, where was this kind of energy when it came to Hillary Clinton's email server?

[s_bushido]

Much like, "LOCK HER UP!", Trump is once again explicitly promising to weaponize the federal government against his political opponents.

You know, that thing Republicans keep saying Biden is doing (he isn't) and that's so bad and terrible? Yeah, that.

Honestly, instead of pointing out the rank hypocrisy on display literally any time a Republican opens its mouth...it should just be reiterated that they have literally no morals or standards whatsoever. The hypocrisy charge doesn't matter to them, because they don't value truth or sincerity. Only power.

[Edge-]

https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/...nt-is-damning/

And we certainly do not welcome the precedent of a federal prosecutor, who ultimately reports to the president, indicting that president’s leading rival for reelection. That said, it is impossible to read the indictment against Trump in the Mar-a-Lago documents case and not be appalled at the way he handled classified documents as an ex-president, and responded to the attempt by federal authorities to reclaim them.

Even the National Review can't defend Trump how Republicans are. They're still trying, but even NRO as an outlet, having actually read the indictment, knows that there's absolutely no defense for Trump's behavior and intentional taking and concealment of classified documents.

We understand why many conservatives are unwilling to view the charges against Trump in a vacuum given that the Justice Department let Hillary Clinton off the hook for her reckless handling of government secrets and the resulting cover-up, that President Biden is unlikely to pay a price for his own mishandling of classified documents, and that Democrats and their allies have pursued a yearslong campaign to get Trump.

There's your "But Her Emails" and also your "But His Garage", with a healthy dose of, "Well of course Biden is politicizing the DoJ like Trump did." for good measure.

All of those are legitimate considerations, and the contrast with how James Comey and Co. handled the Hillary case is particularly galling.

Along with complaining that the Republican-confirmed head of the FBI, who actually broke protocol to hand Trump the presidency, didn't lock Hillary up because they still really think she should be locked up.

But it doesn’t change the fact the country wouldn’t be in this uncharted territory if Trump hadn’t taken documents he had no right to, and simply complied when asked to give them back.

That's it. That's the whole thing. If Trump had given the documents back to begin with this would not be an issue. Hillary did. Biden did. Pence did. Obama did.

Comments are as unhinged as you imagine they are.

[gondrin]

So, what does Trump have a lot of, besides weight? Tapes. Lots and lots of tapes. Tapes for days.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...1de55dde&ei=17

'Those tapes are my tapes!' Trump enraged by Jack Smith's evidence against him

Former President Donald Trump on Sunday confirmed the existence of audio recordings that could be used as evidence against him in a case about the mishandling of classified documents.

During an interview on Sunday with host Roger Stone, Trump responded to reports indicating he admitted he did not declassify some documents before leaving office with them. Those recordings are reportedly in the hands of special counsel Jack Smith.

"By the way, the tapes that you read about, those tapes are my tapes," Trump growled. "I gave them very willingly, the tapes."

Trump complained that President Joe Biden "probably doesn't have tapes" incriminating himself.

"I gave them the tapes!" he exclaimed before threatening to release tapes of the FBI searching Mar-a-Lago.

"I have tapes of the FBI during the raid. I didn't put them out because I was asked not to by them," he ranted. "But I have tapes of the raid by FBI. You want to see some tapes? Those are tapes.

Complains that Joe Biden probably doesn't tape himself confeving to a crime. Yet complains about using said tapes against him.

[Edge-]

So, what does Trump have a lot of, besides weight? Tapes. Lots and lots of tapes. Tapes for days.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...1de55dde&ei=17



Complains that Joe Biden probably doesn't tape himself confeving to a crime. Yet complains about using said tapes against him.

Wait...so he extensively recorded himself committing and admitting to the crime, too?

Jesus, "Stupid Watergate" continues to be a more and more apt name for this whole nonsense. Really, Ford should not have pardoned Nixon and we should have dealt with Republican criminality and stupidity decades ago in the hopes of heading it off. Just like the Union should have proceeded with "The Occupation" rather than "The Reconstruction" after the Civil War.

Really, the consistent message is that American conservatives, when breaking the law, need to be aggressively prosecuted. Anything less just sends the message that they can continue with this kind of behavior, and ratchet up its severity.

[gondrin]

On the Stupid Watergate nonsense, McCarthy thinks the bathroom is a perfectly fine location to store top secret documents. I mean, the door does lock and everything. Who doesn't like to read about the nation's nuclear secrets while on the shitter.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...e115c444&ei=22

Kevin McCarthy Argues That Trump Hoarding Documents Next to the Toilet Was Sufficiently Secure Because ‘A Bathroom Door Locks’

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) defended former President Donald Trump’s storage of classified documents, telling reporters Monday that at least one of the now-viral photos was fine because “a bathroom door locks.”

Last Friday, the Department of Justice unsealed a federal indictment stemming from Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation of the ex-president with 37 criminal counts spelling out how Trump retained boxes of documents that “included information regarding defense and weapons capabilities of both the United States and foreign counties; United States nuclear programs; potential vulnerabilities of the United States and its allies to military attack; and plans for possible retaliation in response to foreign attack.”

Some of the most shocking allegations in the indictment relate to communications from Trump, his family members, his attorneys, and other staffers acknowledging that he had retained classified information that had not been declassified — plus the now-viral photos showing boxes of documents that allegedly contained classified information, stacked up in bathrooms, ballroom stages, storage rooms, and other nonsecure areas.

Trump, unsurprisingly, has reacted with a series of bombastic Truth Social posts and furious screeds during his speeches and interviews over the past few days, peppered throughout with his customary insistence that he is the victim of a “witch hunt.”

The ex-president “is falling back on his witch hunt playbook,” said CNN’s Dana Bash to introduce the clip of McCarthy, “and his Republican allies are playing right along. Just minutes ago, the House Speaker deployed some bathroom humor to discuss the special counsel’s indictment.”

“Was that a good look for the former president to have boxes in a bathroom?” a reporter asked McCarthy.

“I don’t know, is it a good picture to have boxes in a garage that opens up all the time?” he replied, presumably referring to the classified documents that were found in the garage at President Joe Biden’s Wilmington, Delaware home — and, in a critically important difference, immediately and voluntarily turned over to the government (also, presumably, a garage door is capable of being locked and a bathroom door can be opened, but we digress).

“A bathroom door locks,” McCarthy added.

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), who is the ranking Democrat on the House Oversight Committee and served on the Jan. 6 House Select Committee, joined Bash to discuss the indictment and started with McCarthy’s comments.

“Well, it’s the first I’ve seen that particular defense, but is he suggesting that these boxes of classified documents got up and locked the door after people left the bathroom?” said Raskin with a chuckle. “I’m not quite sure I follow the logic of it.”

The Maryland congressman continued with a more serious tone. “Look, the documents were unlawfully in Donald Trump’s possession, which was bad enough, which is a violation of the law, but even when given the opportunity to return them to the [National] Archives, to turn them back over to the government, Trump refused to do so, repeatedly. That’s what he’s being charged with — that obstruction of justice and playing that game of cat and mouse with the government.”