Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[PhaelixWW]

Some new polls were published today.

This could be interesting...

[Breccia]

They are trying to muddy the waters between the China ban and the EU ban.

Do you know where the waters are the most muddy?

Swamps.

- - - Updated - - -

Some new polls were published today.

Yeah, seems like he's losing ground wherever his voters are dying from his inactions.

[PhaelixWW]

Yeah, seems like he's losing ground wherever his voters are dying from his inactions.

Speaking of, 270toWin updated their base prediction a few days ago:

[Felya]

Speaking of, 270toWin updated their base prediction a few days ago:

Biden is up by 1% in Texas, according to Fox News in late June... 538 has Biden up by 0.1% in Texas, as of today’s average. People need to vote...

Edit: Shit... My previous edit was so slow, I missed your previous post.

Edit 2: People getting sick in Texas have family and friends that voted Trump last year. How many will trust Trump again? Especially when Biden is such a wet noodle?

[Thepersona]

*sigh* "Two times" is the same as "twice". Cut me some slack. It's been a shit week.

Oh, that piece of snark wasnt directed at you

It was directed at florida, because it totally not suspicious to have a number that's twice plus one the infamous 47.

[Rasulis]

Some new polls were published today.

This could be interesting...

I have said it before. About half of TX oil & gas & support employers are from out of state. Right now, due to lack of jobs, they are leaving TX in drove going back to their home states. So, until oil & gas employment recover his numbers in TX will get worse and worse as his support base is thinning out.

On top of that, Midland – Odessa, the heart of TX shale industry, is being hit hard by Covid-19. Abbot already said he is very close to shutting the Midland – Odessa economy to keep the virus from spreading. Also, don't forget TX cattle industry. It is bleeding red ink like crazy right now.

[Breccia]

I have said it before. About half of TX oil & gas & support employers are from out of state. Right now, due to lack of jobs, they are leaving TX in drove going back to their home states. So, until oil & gas employment recover his numbers in TX will get worse and worse as his support base is thinning out.

Assuming the Saudis and Russia don't intentionally push this issue one way or the other, what would it take for TX oil to improve by November?

[Kaleredar]

Some new polls were published today.

This could be interesting...

I don’t have my hopes up high enough to believe Biden will actually swing Texas. While it might look good now, his lead in Texas is so precipitous that it’ll probably sink back under when the republican attack machine begins more in earnest.

Biden should focus more intently on the swing states Hillary lost last time. I think Texas is a pipe dream, even if it looks promising now.

[Felya]

I don’t have my hopes up high enough to believe Biden will actually swing Texas. While it might look good now, his lead in Texas is so precipitous that it’ll probably sink back under when the republican attack machine begins more in earnest.

Biden should focus more intently on the swing states Hillary lost last time. I think Texas is a pipe dream, even if it looks promising now.

I think Biden’s current tact with Texas is sustainable... let Trump bury him self.

[beanman12345]

So....Florida is reporting just over 15k new cases today. That's about 3.5k more than New York's highest ever.

And they are reporting 45 deaths.

Fuck Florida.

Holy Hell, and it's a sunday too....

[Felya]

Holy Hell, and it's a sunday too....

Florida is not as packed as NY city either... this should not be happening at all.

[Kaleredar]

I think Biden’s current tact with Texas is sustainable... let Trump bury him self.

I think that’s because, as I said, the republicans aren’t really pushing back outside of some talking head opinion pieces on Fox News. The republicans that are all in on Trump (which is most of them) are going to be like wounded animals backed into a corner. Their political careers depend on him, or else they’re going to have a lot of hard work in trying to distance themselves from him and make their supporters, now soured on the failings of a one-term trump, forget that they were in lock step with him. So they’re going to lash out a Biden in full force.

As far as continuing to let Trump bury himself, yes, definitely. But Biden and his campaign are going to need to stir up excitement for his presidency and get on the offense over trump. They can’t just sit back, as Hillary did, and feel content that they’ve got this victory in the bag. And pushing on the historical swing states to go blue is absolutely critical.

[Rasulis]

Assuming the Saudis and Russia don't intentionally push this issue one way or the other, what would it take for TX oil to improve by November?

We don't know. Probably not very likely. WTI crude price been stuck between a narrow band of $39 to $41 per barrel since mid-May. A phenomena that has never been seen since oil was traded in the open market. The conspiracy theorist inside me think that somebody is keeping it there on purpose. Low enough to keep bankrupting shale oil companies but high enough for Russia and SA to barely break even. Mostly Russia. SA still has to tap their foreign fund.

[Resurgo]

Florida is not as packed as NY city either... this should not be happening at all.

Yeah, I'm kinda concerned by the picture because I grew up in NYC, and while it was horrible to see, I couldn't help but think it was expected. Not sure if you recall seeing a picture of a NYC subway in the middle of the pandemic lockdown, but the picture made it out to look somewhat full. Having grown up there, I can attest that even that picture was hardly "full" compared to the amount of people that I've been packed in with in the past, and that was over 20 years ago.

All that said, I'm starting to wonder if the incubation period of two weeks wasn't a bit more optimistic, and possibly the incubation period could be a week or two longer, giving covid even more chance to spread undetected for so long...(this last sentence is PURE speculation of course)

Either way, I'm afraid to think of how bad Florida will end up looking in the next month

[Gorsameth]

I think that’s because, as I said, the republicans aren’t really pushing back outside of some talking head opinion pieces on Fox News. The republicans that are all in on Trump (which is most of them) are going to be like wounded animals backed into a corner. Their political careers depend on him, or else they’re going to have a lot of hard work in trying to distance themselves from him and make their supporters, now soured on the failings of a one-term trump, forget that they were in lock step with him. So they’re going to lash out a Biden in full force.

As far as continuing to let Trump bury himself, yes, definitely. But Biden and his campaign are going to need to stir up excitement for his presidency and get on the offense over trump. They can’t just sit back, as Hillary did, and feel content that they’ve got this victory in the bag. And pushing on the historical swing states to go blue is absolutely critical.

Biden needs to stir excitement 3-4 months from now. Excitement now does nothing, people have other things on their mind and it would all be forgotten by November anyway.

[Easo]

House appropriators extend middle finger to NASA's 2024 moon landing goal
See?

NASA was...not thrilled.

Now, before we get into any more discussion on the topic (yes, funding will be the focus, well it'll be my focus) first, I want to give my usual 24 hour notice to the Trump supporters in the audience. Why were we going back to the moon, again? It's the funniest thing, I can't remember. Maybe you can find the specific reason we were going back and link it here. If you don't within 24 hours, I'll assume authority, and the reason will be "Trump's ego".

Does not matter, NASA needs the money and we (as in - humans) need to go back. Why? Basestop/experience for Mars trip, it was the basic idea. I hope I don't have to explain why we need to go to other planets.
One of the rare things Trump has done right, even if for his ego/voter base, was to give NASA money. They had cuts upon cuts before.
So as for this I will say - House are morons. Give the fucking NASA the fucking money, FFS.
P.S.
2024 landings still won't happen even with full budget, too soon, there is no time to prepare everything. Rocket, crew ship, landing equipment, none of those are ready yet. Does not mean the process has to be stopped.

[Hinastorm]

Does not matter, NASA needs the money and we (as in - humans) need to go back. Why? Basestop/experience for Mars trip, it was the basic idea. I hope I don't have to explain why we need to go to other planets.
One of the rare things Trump has done right, even if for his ego/voter base, was to give NASA money. They had cuts upon cuts before.
So as for this I will say - House are morons. Give the fucking NASA the fucking money, FFS.
P.S.
2024 landings still won't happen even with full budget, too soon, there is no time to prepare everything. Rocket, crew ship, landing equipment, none of those are ready yet. Does not mean the process has to be stopped.

Us spending billions of dollars to send humans, or work towards sending humans, to other planets at this time is bonkers insane. Just absolutely divorced from reality.

That money could be used SO SO SO much better.

I get you're curious about space. Cool. Another time.

I'm all for exploring space with probes and such, but not billions of dollars worth.

Also maybe "one of the few things he's done right" should be a red flag.

[Omega10]

We don't know. Probably not very likely. WTI crude price been stuck between a narrow band of $39 to $41 per barrel since mid-May. A phenomena that has never been seen since oil was traded in the open market. The conspiracy theorist inside me think that somebody is keeping it there on purpose. Low enough to keep bankrupting shale oil companies but high enough for Russia and SA to barely break even. Mostly Russia. SA still has to tap their foreign fund.

I thought it was you that said simply: Up to 35-45 dollars a barrel, Russia and Saudi Arabia get the money.
Any amount over 45 goes to the US.

So it is strongly in the economic benefit of both Saudi Arabia and Russia to keep the price of oil between 35 and 45. Apparently they listened to you, and are doing what it takes to maximize their profits. They apparently decided on $40, and are simply maximizing their profits. Nothing personal, strictly business.

[Kaleredar]

Us spending billions of dollars to send humans, or work towards sending humans, to other planets at this time is bonkers insane. Just absolutely divorced from reality.

That money could be used SO SO SO much better.

I get you're curious about space. Cool. Another time.

I'm all for exploring space with probes and such, but not billions of dollars worth.

Also maybe "one of the few things he's done right" should be a red flag.

NASA has always returned more money on investment than it has taken in. Moreover, NASA's budget comprises less than half of one percent of the US' total budget.

As such, yeah... that is one of the few things Trump has done right: Give money to a self-contained government agency that oversees itself and not beholden to his petty interests. Because NASA will use it to serve their ends which extend far beyond Trump's presidency, rather than use it to serve Trump's ends.

[Breccia]

By any standard, no matter how you look at it, the U.S. is losing its war against the coronavirus.

The pandemic is not an abstraction, and it is not something that’s simmering in the background. It is an ongoing emergency ravaging nearly the entire country, with a loss of life equivalent to a Sept. 11 every three days — for four months and counting.

“The part that really baffles me is the complete lack of interest in doing anything to achieve the goals we all agree on,” said Ashish Jha, the director of the Global Health Institute at Harvard.

Everyone wants to be able to safely reopen schools and see their friends and leave the house. To do those things safely, you have to get the virus under control. But much of America is talking and planning like victors at the precise moment we’re in the throes of defeat.

Seven times over the last two weeks, the U.S. has set a new record for the most cases in a single day. Cases are increasing in 33 states, and several of those states are seeing such staggering increases that they may soon overwhelm their hospitals.

No, those increases are not just a reflection of better testing. And though testing has dramatically improved, it’s still not enough to meet demand.
The peak of the U.S.’ coronavirus vigilance is in the past, but the peak of the virus’ actual spread is happening right now.

Public health experts say they’re optimistic that we’ll get our act together.

“It's certainly within our power to turn things around. Whether or not we will depends on whether our political leaders will commit themselves to it,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University. “If they’re able to get on the same page as the evidence, then I think they can avoid shutdowns.”

It’s true — and it’s good — that the percentage of all coronavirus patients who die seems to be falling. And experts hope that will hold, as the pool of infected people is skewing younger.

But “I don't know that I take much comfort in this, knowing that thousands of people are going to die in the coming days and weeks and it was all preventable,” Jha said.

The virus has already killed over 130,000 people in the U.S. — roughly the population of Charleston, S.C. And deaths are now beginning to rise in the places experiencing big outbreaks.

Patients who don’t die can still experience lasting, painful symptoms, including damage to the lungs, heart, immune system and even the brain, after they leave the hospital.

The optimistic view is that the pandemic just had to get worse before it gets better — that people outside of the New York region may not have taken it seriously enough in the early days when it was concentrated there, but that they will now.

“I think there's a lot we can still do to turn around, and i'm still hopeful we are going to get more leadership to fight this thing,” Jha said. “I think we’re going to have to relearn the lessons of March and April and New York, without the ability to say, ‘Oh that was just New York.’ “It's going to be a painful summer.”

Everyone has a number. At some point, each leader will look at what's happening in their area and say "Okay, now I have to act". As we've seen, some numbers are lower than others. We haven't gotten to Trump's yet. I don't know what that'll take, we've hit that 134k number and there's no signs of slowing down. But even if Trump said today "Wear a mask, or the Army will execute you on the spot" and enforced that (somehow), cases and deaths are still going to increase for the predictable future of 1-3 weeks. Hopefully, actions of a more reasonable bent will be taken at the state and local levels while we wait for Trump to finish golfing.