View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
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  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #29521
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    How about debunking this one then...Great news from the ONS yesterday who reported UK exports to the EU are 20% higher than they were five years ago just prior to the Brexit referendum. I'm sure someone, no several here posted at that time in a vain attempt to get us to remain:-

    "Remember when you were told our exports to the EU would fall off a cliff if you voted Leave?"


    https://facts4eu.org/news/2021_aug_UK_exports_soar

    So you're back to where you were prior to 2021, well done, took only months to get everything on track. So exports fell off a cliff and rebound.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before. A bunch of times actually.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I never said I was knowledge-able and I wouldn't even care if I was the least knowledge-able person and the biggest dumb-ass out of all 7.8 billion people on the planet.

  2. #29522
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    How about debunking this one then...Great news from the ONS yesterday who reported UK exports to the EU are 20% higher than they were five years ago just prior to the Brexit referendum. I'm sure someone, no several here posted at that time in a vain attempt to get us to remain:-

    "Remember when you were told our exports to the EU would fall off a cliff if you voted Leave?"


    https://facts4eu.org/news/2021_aug_UK_exports_soar

    Sigh. You don't get it dribbles, and you never will.

    Exports to the EU went up. Despite Covid, despite all the additional red-tape that Brexit has placed in the way of any poor fucker trying to make a living from exporting things to the EU, they still managed to go up. But exporting things to the EU is unequivocally harder, more time consuming and more expensive than they used to be. And Brexit has done that.

    So we have to ask ourselves two questions. Did Brexit cause this increase in exports to the EU? Would the increase have actually been higher if Brexit hadn't happened? There is nothing I've seen in the brief scan of actual articles about this (rather than the pathetically biased shit you just linked) that suggests Brexit is responsible for this increase. And that fact that exporting is harder and more expensive that it used to be, there is every reason to presume that the increase would have been larger if Brexit hadn't happened.

    But you'll ignore all of that and carry on wittering on about how Brexit is wonderful and made us all rich and happy etc. etc.

    But answer me this; if Brexit has made our country so brilliant at exporting, why have our exports to the rest of the world just dropped? Surely if you're going to randomly assign good outcomes to Brexit, shouldn't that also be responsible for the bad outcomes? Or are you going to blame that drop on something else, since Brexit couldn't possibly be the reason in your world?

    In short; you're talking bollocks again dribbles, and outside of your circle of similarly delusional "friends", nobody is going to fall for it.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.
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  3. #29523
    Banned dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    Sigh. You don't get it dribbles, and you never will.

    Exports to the EU went up. Despite Covid, despite all the additional red-tape that Brexit has placed in the way of any poor fucker trying to make a living from exporting things to the EU, they still managed to go up. But exporting things to the EU is unequivocally harder, more time consuming and more expensive than they used to be. And Brexit has done that.

    So we have to ask ourselves two questions. Did Brexit cause this increase in exports to the EU? Would the increase have actually been higher if Brexit hadn't happened? There is nothing I've seen in the brief scan of actual articles about this (rather than the pathetically biased shit you just linked) that suggests Brexit is responsible for this increase. And that fact that exporting is harder and more expensive that it used to be, there is every reason to presume that the increase would have been larger if Brexit hadn't happened.

    But you'll ignore all of that and carry on wittering on about how Brexit is wonderful and made us all rich and happy etc. etc.

    But answer me this; if Brexit has made our country so brilliant at exporting, why have our exports to the rest of the world just dropped? Surely if you're going to randomly assign good outcomes to Brexit, shouldn't that also be responsible for the bad outcomes? Or are you going to blame that drop on something else, since Brexit couldn't possibly be the reason in your world?

    In short; you're talking bollocks again dribbles, and outside of your circle of similarly delusional "friends", nobody is going to fall for it.
    You have to look at it in the round though, as even your favourite source has done in this article from yesterday.

    "Between April and June, the UK grew at more than double the rate of the 2% in the eurozone and faster than the US, which grew at a quarterly rate of just over 1.5%."

    And as Brexiteer Dishi Rishi says quite rightly in it, "With the fastest quarterly growth rate among the G7 economies, we have exceeded expectations" the expectations of project fear remainers most certainly.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business...afes-reopening

    You do have to ask the question if UK trade exports to the EU are 20% greater outside of the bloc than inside, as is the case now, who in their right mind would want to pay those extortionate EU club fees to be worse off? Not me. It's a brexit good news story, yet another brexit benefit if you will, and not even you can spin it any other way.

  4. #29524
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    So you're back to where you were prior to 2021, well done, took only months to get everything on track. So exports fell off a cliff and rebound.
    Not really, you should assume that everything lies4brexit writes is misleading in each and every aspect.

    The exports of goods were previously on an upward trajectory (similarly in the EU - with a 2.6% yearly growth), so they are not back to pre-2021 levels, but to levels seen additional years back. With a normal 2.6% yearly increasing reaching levels seen 5 years ago in reality means a 12% drop. (The EU also fell back, in 2020 it fell back to 2016 levels in terms of export, due to covid-19.)

    However, there is another bold lie - the numbers are not numbers for exports, but numbers for exports in goods. You remember that the uk had a large focus on services, not goods, and the agreement with the EU mainly covers goods - not services, right?

  5. #29525
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Not really, you should assume that everything lies4brexit writes is misleading in each and every aspect.

    The exports of goods were previously on an upward trajectory (similarly in the EU - with a 2.6% yearly growth), so they are not back to pre-2021 levels, but to levels seen additional years back. With a normal 2.6% yearly increasing reaching levels seen 5 years ago in reality means a 12% drop. (The EU also fell back, in 2020 it fell back to 2016 levels in terms of export, due to covid-19.)

    However, there is another bold lie - the numbers are not numbers for exports, but numbers for exports in goods. You remember that the uk had a large focus on services, not goods, and the agreement with the EU mainly covers goods - not services, right?
    I didn't really put much into it, it's just dribbles posting very specific information that might look great but is probably just bullshit anyway so yeah. Without any comparison to pre-covid or pre-brexit years it's a useless comparison.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before. A bunch of times actually.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I never said I was knowledge-able and I wouldn't even care if I was the least knowledge-able person and the biggest dumb-ass out of all 7.8 billion people on the planet.

  6. #29526
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    You have to look at it in the round though, as even your favourite source has done in this article from yesterday.

    "Between April and June, the UK grew at more than double the rate of the 2% in the eurozone and faster than the US, which grew at a quarterly rate of just over 1.5%."

    And as Brexiteer Dishi Rishi says quite rightly in it, "With the fastest quarterly growth rate among the G7 economies, we have exceeded expectations" the expectations of project fear remainers most certainly.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business...afes-reopening

    You do have to ask the question if UK trade exports to the EU are 20% greater outside of the bloc than inside, as is the case now, who in their right mind would want to pay those extortionate EU club fees to be worse off? Not me. It's a brexit good news story, yet another brexit benefit if you will, and not even you can spin it any other way.
    Its easy to climb faster then others when you fell further down the mountain then everyone else.

    We've been over this before so fuck it, I'll just copy my previous post.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    If we actually look at the actual IMF update you mentioned but failed to link.
    https://www.imf.org/-/media/Images/I...0&w=2600&la=en
    We can see that the UK crashed harder then the EU in 2020 and while it is projected to see a higher recovery % I'll point out that losing 6.5% and then recovering 4.6% is more then losing 9.8% and then recovering 7%.
    Also further on in your article.
    The ONS said the economy was 4.4% smaller than in the final three months of 2019 on a quarterly basis. The US has already made up the ground lost during the pandemic.
    So yeah you grew faster then the US. But the US already recovered to pre-pandemic numbers and your still racing to get back where you started. That means your doing worse...
    Last edited by Gorsameth; 2021-08-13 at 06:24 PM.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  7. #29527
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    There's another rather obvious indication that it isn't a French news site.

    The site isn't even in French!

    Yes, you can switch to the French variant https://www.fr24news.com/fr/ but there are still quite a lot of English headings, and having "/fr" for the French-variant seems to indicate that the French-variant is secondary - which is not how the French normally view the world.
    This guys gets it ! Cocorico !

  8. #29528
    Titan draykorinee's Avatar
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    Oddly specific to choose to use 2016 as the year to compare rather than last years or 2019, or 2018? Is that maybe because 2016 was the lowest exports we had in the last 5 years?

    Hmmmm.

  9. #29529
    May be a dumb question, as I'm not up to date on all things Brexit aside from what impact it had on my company...but:

    Does that exports comparison take into account that "exports" for the UK now includes countries it didn't previously have to "export" to because they were part of the same geography? Or is that a thing?

  10. #29530
    Quote Originally Posted by Katchii View Post
    May be a dumb question, as I'm not up to date on all things Brexit aside from what impact it had on my company...but:

    Does that exports comparison take into account that "exports" for the UK now includes countries it didn't previously have to "export" to because they were part of the same geography? Or is that a thing?
    Yes, but…

    1) it celebrates recently rising exports, while those exports plummeted to the ground before. I amagine you have 100 bucks and losing 90 of those. You then have 10 bucks. If it goes back up to 20 bucks, you can report 100% growth. Not like your economy isnt in the shitter anymore though.

    2) the article compares 2021 export levels to 2016, saying they’re “back to the old level”. Now, 2016 was a pretty weak year for exports, but even if it wasn’t, that’s 5 years ago. With a normal growthrate of 2-3% one would expect UK exports of goods to be 10-15% higher than in 2016.

    3) they only talk about exports of goods. The UK does not export many goods. There is a large export sector for services though. Those are left out in the equation. They’re basically celebrating finding a penny in the couch after the house burnt down.

    So to sum up:
    1) relative growth says nothing about absolute growth.
    2) 2016 is a weird and misleading comparison.
    3) the export of goods is almost entirely irrelevent.

  11. #29531
    Quote Originally Posted by Veggie50 View Post
    So to sum up:
    1) relative growth says nothing about absolute growth.
    2) 2016 is a weird and misleading comparison.
    3) the export of goods is almost entirely irrelevent.
    All good points.

    My point is this though:

    If in 2016 UK exported to 20 countries and made $20 billion and now because of Brexit they export to 40 countries and made $40 billion in "exports." But back in 2016 they made the same $20 billion from the other 20 countries, it just wasn't counted as export revenue because they weren't counted as actual exports because they were part of the EU.

    Is that a thing?

  12. #29532
    Quote Originally Posted by Katchii View Post
    All good points.

    My point is this though:

    If in 2016 UK exported to 20 countries and made $20 billion and now because of Brexit they export to 40 countries and made $40 billion in "exports." But back in 2016 they made the same $20 billion from the other 20 countries, it just wasn't counted as export revenue because they weren't counted as actual exports because they were part of the EU.

    Is that a thing?
    Nope. Exporting to EU countries means no border checks, but it’s still counted as exports.

  13. #29533
    Quote Originally Posted by Katchii View Post
    All good points.

    My point is this though:

    If in 2016 UK exported to 20 countries and made $20 billion and now because of Brexit they export to 40 countries and made $40 billion in "exports." But back in 2016 they made the same $20 billion from the other 20 countries, it just wasn't counted as export revenue because they weren't counted as actual exports because they were part of the EU.

    Is that a thing?
    Not really, EU-internal exports are still counted normally for EU-countries like Germany and France.

    There is some special case when counting EU as one trade block where EU-internal exports are skipped - but not when looking at specific countries.

  14. #29534
    Quote Originally Posted by Veggie50 View Post
    Nope. Exporting to EU countries means no border checks, but it’s still counted as exports.
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Not really, EU-internal exports are still counted normally for EU-countries like Germany and France.

    There is some special case when counting EU as one trade block where EU-internal exports are skipped - but not when looking at specific countries.
    Thanks for the info, wasn't sure.

  15. #29535
    Last week Nando's has to shut in Great Britain, this week McDonald's announced that no milkshakes can be sold in any of their 1,250 premises in Great Britain. Added with store shelves having issues.

    Oh yes, I deliberately said Great Britain and not included Northern Ireland here because it highlights issues that are GB only due to Brexit.

  16. #29536
    Banned dribbles's Avatar
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    Supply chain issues soon to be resolved as the bounty is shared amongst working class Brexit voters.

    Employers offer golden hellos of up to £10k

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...orker-shortage

    Brexit benefits for the many not the few, enriching everyone, just as we promised available here today in the sunny uplands.

  17. #29537
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Supply chain issues soon to be resolved as the bounty is shared amongst working class Brexit voters.

    Employers offer golden hellos of up to £10k

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...orker-shortage

    Brexit benefits for the many not the few, enriching everyone, just as we promised available here today in the sunny uplands.
    Oh look 2 care home jobs somewhere in Scotland that nobody wants to do hence the 10K offer...and 2 care home workers sure as hell won't fix supply chain issues for the entire UK. That will take lorry drivers and a £1K or £2K signing on bonus isn't going to cut it when I have to find around £9K to train as a lorry driver in the first place.

  18. #29538
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Supply chain issues soon to be resolved as the bounty is shared amongst working class Brexit voters.

    Employers offer golden hellos of up to £10k

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...orker-shortage

    Brexit benefits for the many not the few, enriching everyone, just as we promised available here today in the sunny uplands.
    I'll keep this fairly simple for you dribbles, because I know you have a hard time following anything that gets complicated.

    If I'm a country, and I'm short 100k HGV drivers, will companies offering financial incentives a) resolve the problem or b) simply move the resources away from areas that can't afford to pay the extra money; like refuse collection, for example?

    Well, which do you think it is? There is an option c, of course, which is that it encourages more foreign drivers to come over here and work, taking all that extra cash back to the EU with them. Assuming that Brexit hasn't pissed them off to the extent that they won't come back for any amount of money, and assuming that they won't get stuck in a big queue in Dover trying to get here.

    That's Brexit for you; creating massive problems then hoping that foreigners will help us sort it out.

    Thanks for proving again that you are utterly unable to follow a chain of logic that highlights that your "benefits" are anything but. Classic dribbles. I suppose I should be happy that at least you're now admitting that Brexit is the cause of these driver shortages; not long ago you and the moron burner were trying to claim we were making the shortages up. I guess that's progress?
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.
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  19. #29539
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Supply chain issues soon to be resolved as the bounty is shared amongst working class Brexit voters.

    Employers offer golden hellos of up to £10k

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...orker-shortage

    Brexit benefits for the many not the few, enriching everyone, just as we promised available here today in the sunny uplands.
    Uh-huh.

    "Care home operator HC One is offering a £10,000 “welcome bonus” on two jobs for registered night nurses, both in Scotland, as private health care providers battle with a shortage of workers partly caused by EU citizens returning home."

    "mental health group Elysium Healthcare is offering a welcome bonus of £5,000 for registered nurses, while the Priory Group is offering £5,000 for mental health nurses."

    "It also found that supermarket group Asda had joined Tesco in offering a £1,000 signing-on fee for HGV drivers amid a shortage in qualified workers that prompted dairy group Arla to offer a £2,000 bonus."

    Only the last one is kinda relevant. And it certainly isn't 10k.

  20. #29540
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UnifiedDivide View Post
    Only the last one is kinda relevant. And it certainly isn't 10k.
    To be fair, he said up to £10k, that could mean anything between £1 and £10k.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before. A bunch of times actually.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I never said I was knowledge-able and I wouldn't even care if I was the least knowledge-able person and the biggest dumb-ass out of all 7.8 billion people on the planet.

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