The Brexit aftermath thread

[Deleted]

Oh dear, it appears that Jeremy is not happy that someone in Labour has an opinion on Brexit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43521321

It's ironic, that May supported Remain and she's running the government overseeing Brexit while Corbyn supported Leave (or would have if it didn't associate him with the fringe loonies) and is running the opposition.

[Pann]

It's ironic, that May supported Remain and she's running the government overseeing Brexit while Corbyn supported Leave (or would have if it didn't associate him with the fringe loonies) and is running the opposition.

May seems to have little opinion on anything unless it advantageous to her. And I am not so sure Corbyn is worried about being associated with fringe loonies, I mean, have you seen the Shadow Cabinet? To be honest I have no idea where Corbyn stands on many things, including Brexit, outside of he opposes what the Government says or does.

[Deleted]

May seems to have little opinion on anything unless it advantageous to her. And I am not so sure Corbyn is worried about being associated with fringe loonies, I mean, have you seen the Shadow Cabinet? To be honest I have no idea where Corbyn stands on many things, including Brexit, outside of he opposes what the Government says or does.

Yeah May played it pretty solidly in the run up the referendum, just kept her head down and barely made a fuss about which side she supported. As for Corbyn, he's not worried about being associated with the left wing fringe loonies ofcourse (he pretty much is one), but he can't support the same side as the right wing fringe loonies, he'd lose supporters over that. But ofcourse, he couldn't support Remain either, because then he'd be seen as on the same side as Cameron, so he had to be his usual wishy washy self.

[Pann]

Yeah May played it pretty solidly in the run up the referendum, just kept her head down and barely made a fuss about which side she supported. As for Corbyn, he's not worried about being associated with the left wing fringe loonies ofcourse (he pretty much is one), but he can't support the same side as the right wing fringe loonies, he'd lose supporters over that. But ofcourse, he couldn't support Remain either, because then he'd be seen as on the same side as Cameron, so he had to be his usual wishy washy self.

She wasn't nicknamed Submarine May for nothing! She has an uncanny ability to be nowhere to be found when things get rough.

Yup, I can't help but think that Labour picked the wrong Miliband brother had David been selected we might not be in such a bad mess.

[Deleted]

Read the articles! I have far better things to with my time than run around in circles with you.

The first three are essentially the same article, since they are all regurgitating the same report, none of which makes your point any stronger, because since this involves a comparison (that's X to Y) and you only give me X's we cant make a comparison.
The fourth is a better, as it at least partially relate to what we are talking about, the article in question is based on a EU-parliament report from the Agricultural committee.
Quoting from the report that article is based on:

Because of its tight relationship with the UK, of all EU27 countries, Ireland is affected the most by Brexit, and not only in agri-food sectors. In relative terms, its GDP decreases even more than UK's GDP (-3.4% vs -2.4%).

While this is focusing on agriculture, you have finally made your argument - Good work for the fourth article, and behind some googling to get the report.
Now to the problem, as given in continuation of the sentence:

This is explained by a drop in Irish agri-food exports to the UK and to the rest of the World, including EU27 countries as Irish production relies heavily on imported intermediates from the UK.

Apart from this then not relating to my argument, final assumption seems deeply problematic, as there is substantial refocusing ongoing in the entire EU to avoid UK suppliers.
This however does not at all matter, since again:

In any case however, this isn't an economical question, the Irish will not tolerate a hard border - For any Irish politician it's going to be way easier to sell economical pain than a border.

My argument did not, and do not, relate to economics.
The last Irish politician that made a deal with the UK to create a border on the island of Ireland was shot and killed.
The Irish will rather have a chaotic no deal brexit, no matter how painful, than consent to a second partitioning, that this will in fact still not deliver the absence of a border is immaterial - Think of it as MAD, and they are willing to go there.

[Pann]

The first three are essentially the same article, since they are all regurgitating the same report, none of which makes your point any stronger, because since this involves a comparison (that's X to Y) and you only give me X's we cant make a comparison.
The fourth is a better, as it at least partially relate to what we are talking about, the article in question is based on a EU-parliament report from the Agricultural committee.
Quoting from the report that article is based on:


While this is focusing on agriculture, you have finally made your argument - Good work for the fourth article, and behind some googling to get the report.
Now to the problem, as given in continuation of the sentence:

Apart from this then not relating to my argument, final assumption seems deeply problematic, as there is substantial refocusing ongoing in the entire EU to avoid UK suppliers.
This however does not at all matter, since again:
My argument did not, and do not, relate to economics.
The last Irish politician that made a deal with the UK to create a border on the island of Ireland was shot and killed.
The Irish will rather have a chaotic no deal brexit, no matter how painful, than consent to a second partitioning, that this will in fact still not deliver the absence of a border is immaterial - Think of it as MAD, and they are willing to go there.

I've told you I have no interest in running around in circles with you. If after reading the articles you still do not understand that saying the UK will be hit twice as badly as the RoI because their relative %age of GDP resulting from trade is simplistic and completely wrong then there is not much that can be said.

You're arguing against the articles? That is well weird! Have you thought that a letter to the editor or the people who conducted the analysis on which they are based might be a better course of action than posting here?

So now not only are you an economics expert but you know what the Irish want because you've heard of Michael Collins! Simply unbelievable!

[Deleted]

I've told you I have no interest in running around in circles with you.

You have troubles with reading it seems:
While this is focusing on agriculture, you have finally made your argument

If after reading the articles you still do not understand that saying the UK will be hit twice as badly as the RoI because their relative %age of GDP resulting from trade is simplistic and completely wrong then there is not much that can be said.

Again, this is not a question of economics - I don't know how many fucking times i have to say that.

You're arguing against the articles? That is well weird! Have you thought that a letter to the editor or the people who conducted the analysis on which they are based might be a better course of action than posting here?

I said that three are essentially the same article, that do not support your argument, and that the fourth selectively quotes from a report.

So now not only are you an economics expert but you know what the Irish want because you've heard of Michael Collins! Simply unbelievable!

I fail to see how i portrayed myself as an expert in economics, when i have four times said that this do not have anything to do with economics.

but you know what the Irish want because you've heard of Michael Collins! Simply unbelievable!

It's only what they have been consistently saying forever, more importantly, the rejection of a border is both popular, and something that the Current taoiseach has wedded himself too, there doesn't seem to be any room to back down.

[Pann]

You have troubles with reading it seems:
While this is focusing on agriculture, you have finally made your argument

Again, this is not a question of economics - I don't know how many fucking times i have to say that.

I said that three are essentially the same article, that do not support your argument, and that the fourth selectively quotes from a report.

I fail to see how i portrayed myself as an expert in economics, when i have four times said that this do not have anything to do with economics.

It's only what they have been consistently saying forever, more importantly, the rejection of a border is both popular, and something that the Current taoiseach has wedded himself too, there doesn't seem to be any room to back down.

Not wanting to play your stupid games does not mean that I have trouble with reading. I haven't made any such argument. I just linked some articles showing the potential impact of Brexit on the Irish economy.

It is a question of economics you can say it is not as many fucking times as you like but each time you do, it will be a lie. You made the idiotic claim that the RoI would be half as affected by a no deal Brexit because it exported 7.5% of its GDP to the UK - that is a question of economics although given your apparent, lack of, understanding of economics it is not altogether unsurprising that you've failed to recognise this.

I know that they are based on the same report but any problems with them or it should be directed at the authors of the articles and/or the report not me. Moaning at me about something someone else compiled or wrote is a little silly.

Not wanting a border and being committed to not having one is not same as your Mutually Assured Destruction bollocks.

It appears that, as per usual, you are now trying to shift your argument and claim that it was something else all along so for mine and everyone else's sanity - yeah, you're right! You're a real winner! Collect 50 internet points.

[Dizzeeyooo]

All you do is make some (random) claims and when your mistakes are pointed out you switch to insulting everyone who commented and claiming they are too dumb to follow your argument.

It appears that, as per usual, you are now trying to shift your argument and claim that it was something else all along so for mine and everyone else's sanity - yeah, you're right! You're a real winner! Collect 50 internet points.

lol

so for mine and everyone else's sanity

honestly, its really just your sanity

[Pann]

lol


honestly, its really just your sanity

Ah, so that's what's behind this message is hidden banner. I think the banner probably makes a greater contribution.

Do you wish to add anything to the topic? Do you think Ireland will as badly affected as the UK by a no deal or not? What are your thoughts?

[Deleted]

Not wanting to play your stupid games does not mean that I have trouble with reading.

Yes it does:
While this is focusing on agriculture, you have finally made your argument
Was me conceding this point.
My quick back of the hand guestimate of half as bad because they do half as much trade was faulty.

I haven't made any such argument.

Negating my position is an argument.

I just linked some articles showing the potential impact of Brexit on the Irish economy.

Okay - if so, what part of 'half as bad' implied that a no deal brexit would be sunshine and roses? - You are aware of what the word 'bad' means?

It is a question of economics you can say it is not as many fucking times as you like but each time you do, it will be a lie. You made the idiotic claim that the RoI would be half as affected by a no deal Brexit because it exported 7.5% of its GDP to the UK - that is a question of economics although given your apparent, lack of, understanding of economics it is not altogether unsurprising that you've failed to recognise this.

My point was that the Irish will not evaluate this on economics.

I know that they are based on the same report but any problems with them or it should be directed at the authors of the articles and/or the report not me. Moaning at me about something someone else compiled or wrote is a little silly.

I said that they did not support your argument - provided the articles in question wasn't actually written by you, there was nothing wrong with the articles.

Not wanting a border and being committed to not having one is not same as your Mutually Assured Destruction bollocks.

Hyperbole (ˈ/haɪˈpɜːrbəli/; Ancient Greek: ὑπερβολή, huperbolḗ, from ὑπέρ (hupér, “above”) and βάλλω (bállō, "I throw")) is the use of exaggeration as a rhetorical device or figure of speech. In rhetoric, it is also sometimes known as auxesis (lit. "growth"). In poetry and oratory, it emphasizes, evokes strong feelings, and creates strong impressions. As a figure of speech, it is usually not meant to be taken literally.

It appears that, as per usual, you are now trying to shift your argument and claim that it was something else all along so for mine and everyone else's sanity - yeah, you're right! You're a real winner! Collect 50 internet points.

First part:

The UK exports about 15% of it's GDP to the EU, Ireland Exports 7.5% of it's GDP to the UK, so they would be hit half as hard.

please explain to me how we have diverged from this point? (I mean i could do that with you plenty).

In any case however, this isn't an economical question, the Irish will not tolerate a hard border - For any Irish politician it's going to be way easier to sell economical pain than a border.

Second claim - And clearly the one I put the most focus on, as evidenced by the underlined.
Go nuts.

[Dizzeeyooo]

Ah, so that's what's behind this message is hidden banner. I think the banner probably makes a greater contribution

banter?

Do you wish to add anything to the topic? Do you think Ireland will as badly affected as the UK by a no deal or not? What are your thoughts?

I don't think having a competition between the UK and Ireland over who will be hurt more by this retarded decision solves anything really, especially when the worst case outcome is already decided - at the last minute with no other options available, the UK will accept a 10 - 12 year duration customs border in the sea between NI and England until enough Baby boomer generation English people die and we can vote to reverse this stupidity and rejoin the EU

[Pann]

banter?


I don't think having a competition between the UK and Ireland over who will be hurt more by this retarded decision solves anything really, especially when the worst case outcome is already decided - at the last minute with no other options available, the UK will accept a 10 - 12 year duration customs border in the sea between NI and England until enough Baby boomer generation English people die and we can vote to reverse this stupidity and rejoin the EU

No banner.

It's not a competition, what makes you think it is one? Our economies, UK and RoI, are inextricably linked and as a result when one suffers the other will as well. Personally I am not comfortable with this but that is the unfortunate reality of the situation.

Buried in your post, under the hyperbole, there appears some sort of an answer to my question - thank you.

To touch on your worst case scenario, which I must say is slightly better than the worst case scenario I envision, do you think that there will be a border between NI and the UK? Given that the Unionists, who are every bit as determined as the Republicans, simply will not accept this?

I think it is more likely that the transition period will be extended, as this allows the politicians on both sides to avoid answering the difficult (if not impossible) question of the Irish border, or the UK will join a customs alignment that looks a lot like a customs union but is not a customs union because it is a customs alignment.

What do you think?

[Kallisto]

I had to chuckle at this... sorry for you, man.

Oh about Harwich port. For about 30 years it's been due for an expansion. But it needs to be preparing for it which includes widening the main road into town (It's one lane in one lane out and even now lorries can cause a massive slow convoy of about 3kms). But successive governments have basically said "Expand first then we'll widen the road." while the port has gone "We can't reasonably expand until you widen the road.". So expecting it to be ready for Brexit when multiple Tory (and Labour) governments have basically failed at getting a negotiation done with one port is laughable at least.

[Dhrizzle]

She wasn't nicknamed Submarine May for nothing! She has an uncanny ability to be nowhere to be found when things get rough.

Yup, I can't help but think that Labour picked the wrong Miliband brother had David been selected we might not be in such a bad mess.

There was nothing wrong with Ed, it's just that the UK electorate cares more about how someone looks eating a bacon sandwich than having a government with policies that are good for the country.

[Dhrizzle]

THere is a wrong way to eat a bacon sandwich?

[Pann]

There was nothing wrong with Ed, it's just that the UK electorate cares more about how someone looks eating a bacon sandwich than having a government with policies that are good for the country.

I would imagine that the people who gave his sandwich eating antics more than a second thought were likely to be of the Sun reading persuasion and therefore unlikely to vote Labour. But if the electorate really is this gullible it does beg the question as to why Labour were unable to tap into it. Somehow people are naive enough to be swayed by eating a sandwich but for some reason they didn't buy his Moses act... I'd have thought that people who are that easily led would have lapped up a message carved into a massive stone tablet... weird, huh?

[Mormolyce]

Just me or do bacon sandwiches have a lousy bread to bacon ratio?

I'd rather disassemble the sandwich and just eat the bacon with the toast. And preferably a fried egg.

Great, now I'm hungry.

[Noradin]

Not wanting to play your stupid games does not mean that I have trouble with reading.

But you do, you have proven it time and time again.

[Deleted]

I think it is more likely that the transition period will be extended, as this allows the politicians on both sides to avoid answering the difficult (if not impossible) question of the Irish border,

This will in fact be vassal status however - I'm not certain this could fly.

or the UK will join a customs alignment that looks a lot like a customs union but is not a customs union because it is a customs alignment.

What do you think?

Problem here is that joining 'A' customs union, will not in fact obviate the need for a border, it's the single market that removes the need for regulatory compliance checks (this is what constitutes the majority of 'customs' checks.
this is a common missunderstanding, presumably because most people think all border checks are 'customs' but that's not true.