The Brexit aftermath thread

[Zarc]

for what it's worth, my leave vote was entirely tactical to get a left wing government in power. in terms of brexit, i don't care either way my job wont be effected by any economical damage lol

So you voted in favor of a fundamental and permanent constitutional change that will take away the European citizenship and the rights that comes with that from your fellow British citizens because it could, possibly, perhaps, eventually, lead to a left wing government? Wow. And you don't care about anybody else's economic circumstances as long as you are doing fine? For somebody who wants a left wing government in power you seem to have glossed over a quite significant part of what left wing politics is all about.

You get 0/10 on your logic, but a solid 7/10 for being an interesting fella'.

My prediction (or perhaps more accurately, fantasy), though, would be that Brexit will be the downfall of the left-wing socialist Left in the UK, and the catalyst for the rise of the center-left liberal Left. In my mind it goes something like this:

The economy goes into a recession by 2020, regardless of Brexit, the UK leaves the Single Market and Customs Union on December 31st 2020 as the transitional agreement ends, worsening a recession that would've happened anyway but getting all the blame. The finance industry of the City crashes as part of the industry heads for the continent out of necessity after losing passporting rights etc, taking with them a substantial amount of the UK's GDP. The SNP uses the economic turmoil to their advantage, and secures a victorious #IndyRef2 and re-joins the Single Market (but keeps out of the EU itself, aka 'Norway option', to satisfy the Eurosceptic rural fishing industry). The economic uncertainty of Scexit further harms the UK economy, the pound takes another hit. The Tories gets blamed for tanking the economy and breaking up not one, but two unions, the European and the British. By the time the elections of 2022 occurs, Jeremy Corbyn has transformed the Labour Party to a point where we might as well re-name it the Corbynista. The Corbynista easily wins the election, securing a massive enough parliamentary majority that no pockets of resistance within the Labour Party Corbynista has any sway whatsoever. The Corbynista begins to nationalize key industries, the pound tanks and loses its status as a reserve currency, while the City takes another hit as firms active on the international markets opt for New York City over London in this new business environment. Continued economic turmoil means that Irish Republicans sense their moment, and Jeremy Corbyn refuses to speak out against an Irish Unification referendum, something he has long supported, opting to stay "neutral", in a way that comes across to everybody with half a brain that he in fact encourages and welcomes Irish Unification. The UK breaks up again, Northern Ireland re-joins the European Union as a part of the Republic of Ireland. The Venezuelan economic policies of the Labour Party Corbynista does not go over well in an economy so dependent on services and so tightly integrated with the world economy. By the mid 2020's it is clear that this will be a lost decade for the UK, with people already having emigrated for job opportunities and higher wages elsewhere, due to years of a falling economy and currency, with Australia and New Zealand especially feeling the influx of Brits, but Canada, the United States and the European Union seeing substantial inflows as well.

With both the major parties having destroyed the economy and broken up the union in their own ways, the ground is fertile for a new progressive force to grow. Along comes a coalition of minor parties led by the Liberal Democrats that merges into a new political party called the "Progressive Liberal Party". This new center-left social-liberal party wins a landslide as voters turns to the center on promises of restoring the UK's fortune by rejoining the Single Market. Just as the economy was starting to turn around anyway, the UK re-joins the Single Market, which then of course gets 100% of the credit, far more credit than it derserves even though over time its effects is positive for the UK economy and that of Europe as a whole. The importance of the Single Market is now unquestionable in British political discourse on the one hand, on the other memory is short. As such, the left-wing Labour Party Corbynista is what most people will remember and associate with this era at this point, not the failures of David Cameron or Theresa May. The moderating, pro-European forces within the Conservative Party has long been gaining ground and now takes full control of the party, which becomes he main opposition as a center-right party, while the Labour Party Corbynista is all but obliterated from the political scene just as UKIP was years ago by now (Nigel Farage emigrated to the Falkland Islands years ago, where he has begun a campaign to restore 19th century British society on these islands through his new party, the Falkland Islands Independence Party, or FIIP).

So, ultimately, my long-term prediction wild fantasy is the opposite of what you wanted, the destruction of the left-wing in the UK (and the right-wing).

[dribbles]

or the UK could stop squatting on the island of Ireland. What you are suggesting means that you consider the Irish unable to make thier own decisions and that they should be a vassel of the UK. Completely ignoring the will of the irish in your bullshit 'solution'.

Why in gods name would Ireland leave the EU? There are 1000's of reasons not to commit suicide as a country.
Also you do know that the UK ramp sacked this country for all it had for hundreds of years right? Why in gods name would we choose your side in any conflict?

The Irish are capable of making their own sensible decisions. That is why they rejected the EU in 2001 on the first Nice treaty referendum. They rejected the EU again a few years later in the Lisbon treaty referendum. Their unelected EU masters didn't accpet this and instructed, on both occasions, how the Irish shall vote in rigged second referendums. You would be hard pressed to find any other nation who have voted against the EU so often and so decisively.

It is the EU that are ignoring the will of the Irish people as evidenced in the above examples. They certainly won't be allowed and in/out poll like the rest of the British Isles.

[Noradin]

listen guys, the idea of brexit isn't a bad one. the current brexit though is bad. i would happily vote leave again *IF* there was a plan in place which took care of every complicated issue that wasn't talked about: namely ireland + cu disputes.

There is a plan in place for every one of those issues: Close your eyes and hope it goes away on its own.

Now if you want plans that solve those issues there is one too: Stay in the EU.

Too bad Brexit is incompartible with the second one...

[Deleted]

The Irish are capable of making their own sensible decisions. That is why they rejected the EU in 2001 on the first Nice treaty referendum. They rejected the EU again a few years later in the Lisbon treaty referendum. Their unelected EU masters didn't accpet this and instructed, on both occasions, how the Irish shall vote in rigged second referendums. You would be hard pressed to find any other nation who have voted against the EU so often and so decisively.

It is the EU that are ignoring the will of the Irish people as evidenced in the above examples. They certainly won't be allowed and in/out poll like the rest of the British Isles.

We have a lot of stupid people here in Ireland as well. We probably have a guy called DribblesIE.
Thank fuck people opened their eyes and voted Yes when it mattered.

[Noradin]

you think it's racist because of the version of brexit the hard right are taking. the LAB brexit stance is simply to remove the UK from parts of the eu which would stop their plans to nationalise parts of the private sector and to impose new laws re: buying land + house building. the LAB version of brexit is probably pro immigration, even.

You could already do this today, in the EU.
The only thing you cannot do is the kind of cheating and stealing you waxed about in that other post of yours some time back: That the UK should "sell" things for lots of money then take them back and keep the money.

[dribbles]

So you voted in favor of a fundamental and permanent constitutional change that will take away the European citizenship and the rights that comes with that from your fellow British citizens because it could, possibly, perhaps, eventually, lead to a left wing government? Wow. And you don't care about anybody else's economic circumstances as long as you are doing fine? For somebody who wants a left wing government in power you seem to have glossed over a quite significant part of what left wing politics is all about.

You get 0/10 on your logic, but a solid 7/10 for being an interesting fella'.

My prediction (or perhaps more accurately, fantasy), though, would be that Brexit will be the downfall of the left-wing socialist Left in the UK, and the catalyst for the rise of the center-left liberal Left. In my mind it goes something like this: <SNIP>

So you voted remain on the basis of a desire for your fantasy? Isn't that a little selfish? Sorry to burst your bubble but back in the real world as a leading economist predicts, in a no deal UK just walks scenario:-

“So plus £651 billion for the UK versus minus £507bn for the EU: it could not be more open and shut who least wants a breakdown. For the UK a breakdown would be a short term nuisance but a substantial economic gain; for the EU it is both a short term nuisance and a substantial economic loss.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/95...nomic-analysis

Nothing like a good dose of reality when the remainer fantasists get carried away!

[Zarc]

So you voted remain on the basis of a desire for your fantasy? Isn't that a little selfish? Sorry to burst your bubble but back in the real world as a leading economist predicts, in a no deal UK just walks scenario:-

“So plus £651 billion for the UK versus minus £507bn for the EU: it could not be more open and shut who least wants a breakdown. For the UK a breakdown would be a short term nuisance but a substantial economic gain; for the EU it is both a short term nuisance and a substantial economic loss.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/95...nomic-analysis

Nothing like a good dose of reality when the remainer fantasists get carried away!

Wait, what? I never said anything about having voted, I don't even live in the UK. And I am the one who just shot down the idea of voting based on predicting the future! Also, my prediction was all based on the UK voting Leave, so if I had voted to make it come true why would I vote Remain? Your post makes 0 sense. Your reading comprehension seems out of whack, dude.

My own prediction - or fantasy - only served to illustrate how stupid an idea it would be to vote based on predicting what would happen in the future as something as unpredictable as what I imagined could potentially happen. Instead one should vote based on your values and the facts on the ground (based on which would've led me to vote Remain by the way, had I lived in the UK).

[alexw]

So you voted remain on the basis of a desire for your fantasy? Isn't that a little selfish? Sorry to burst your bubble but back in the real world as a leading economist predicts, in a no deal UK just walks scenario:-

“So plus £651 billion for the UK versus minus £507bn for the EU: it could not be more open and shut who least wants a breakdown. For the UK a breakdown would be a short term nuisance but a substantial economic gain; for the EU it is both a short term nuisance and a substantial economic loss.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/95...nomic-analysis

Nothing like a good dose of reality when the remainer fantasists get carried away!

Your post makes no sense at all. All the long term predictions say that the UK will grow far slower outside of the EU (absolutely no surprise to anyone who has some knowledge of economics, as ripping up established trade links with your largest and closest trade partner will tend do that). Thus there won't be any savings from leaving the EU. Relative to where you would otherwise be there is going to be a multi-hundred billion hole in your finances to fill. That equates to much lower living standards for the average citizen. Why you want to be poorer god knows, but since you do I'd suggest emigrating to the third world, that way you can have lower living standards yourself rather than forcing others to have them as well as yourself.

[Pann]

So you voted remain on the basis of a desire for your fantasy? Isn't that a little selfish? Sorry to burst your bubble but back in the real world as a leading economist predicts, in a no deal UK just walks scenario:-

“So plus £651 billion for the UK versus minus £507bn for the EU: it could not be more open and shut who least wants a breakdown. For the UK a breakdown would be a short term nuisance but a substantial economic gain; for the EU it is both a short term nuisance and a substantial economic loss.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/95...nomic-analysis

Nothing like a good dose of reality when the remainer fantasists get carried away!

Ah, good ol' Minford. I have to ask; why is it that only readers of The Express are able to realise the massive gains that would, apparently, result from leaving without a deal? Why does this bonus continue to elude our negotiating team?

[Deleted]

So you voted remain on the basis of a desire for your fantasy? Isn't that a little selfish? Sorry to burst your bubble but back in the real world as a leading economist predicts, in a no deal UK just walks scenario:-

“So plus £651 billion for the UK versus minus £507bn for the EU: it could not be more open and shut who least wants a breakdown. For the UK a breakdown would be a short term nuisance but a substantial economic gain; for the EU it is both a short term nuisance and a substantial economic loss.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/95...nomic-analysis

Nothing like a good dose of reality when the remainer fantasists get carried away!

Patrick Minford again lol. Who has been debunked already in this thread.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-a7691271.html

whos model accepts that manafacturing will be eliminated.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-exports-leave

[Huehuecoyotl]

Great so Labour gets to spend the next election cycle in charge, racking up debt, and then when the Tories inevitably get back in charge, we can just go straight back to austerity.

Your tactical planning knows no bounds apparently.

Feel free to go back through history, you know actual facts, and see which parties regularly rack up debt. And which parties regularly clear some of that debt. Then when you realise that it's actually the Tories that are responsible for increasing the debt massively, and Labour that is more financially prudent and tends to clear some of it, you can come back here and apologise.

You won't, of course.

Oh, and austerity won't solve any debt problem, as any economist without a Tory cheque in his back pocket will tell you. In fact it is the main reason why we are sat here a decade after the banking crisis still struggling to turn the economy around. Austerity is being used to drive the Tory agenda, not to sort the debt out. It is being used to privatise schools, and it's starting to be used to privatise the NHS. And as long as there are people that can't understand this, they will carry on getting away with it.

[Pann]

Hmm, so apparently having borrowing increase from $28billion to $152billion is now clearing debt. Well I never. I guess it's true when they say you learn something new everyday.

[Deleted]

Hmm, so apparently having borrowing increase from $28billion to $152billion is now clearing debt. Well I never. I guess it's true when they say you learn something new everyday.

they get to say a pecentage point 'relative to GDP' when they are spinning this.

[Deleted]

Feel free to go back through history, you know actual facts, and see which parties regularly rack up debt. And which parties regularly clear some of that debt. Then when you realise that it's actually the Tories that are responsible for increasing the debt massively, and Labour that is more financially prudent and tends to clear some of it, you can come back here and apologise.

You won't, of course.

Oh, and austerity won't solve any debt problem, as any economist without a Tory cheque in his back pocket will tell you. In fact it is the main reason why we are sat here a decade after the banking crisis still struggling to turn the economy around. Austerity is being used to drive the Tory agenda, not to sort the debt out. It is being used to privatise schools, and it's starting to be used to privatise the NHS. And as long as there are people that can't understand this, they will carry on getting away with it.

It was more to do with the fact that any Government presiding over the Brexit process will rack up debt due to the economy being in the shitter, and I didn’t say Austerity was a good idea.

I would ask for an apology but I don’t think I’d hear from up there on your high horse.

[Huehuecoyotl]

It was more to do with the fact that any Government presiding over the Brexit process will rack up debt due to the economy being in the shitter, and I didn’t say Austerity was a good idea.

I would ask for an apology but I don’t think I’d hear from up there on your high horse.

So it was just a coincidence that you appeared to be jumping to the regularly cited myth that Labour are the party of debt? I'm happy to apologise if that's the case, but if you read your comment back you can see how easy it is to reach that conclusion.

And my comments about austerity weren't aimed at you as such. Just general comments around the fact that if they did go for austerity in that scenario it wouldn't be because they were trying to clear debt, any more than it is today.

[Deleted]

So it was just a coincidence that you appeared to be jumping to the regularly cited myth that Labour are the party of debt? I'm happy to apologise if that's the case, but if you read your comment back you can see how easy it is to reach that conclusion.

And my comments about austerity weren't aimed at you as such. Just general comments around the fact that if they did go for austerity in that scenario it wouldn't be because they were trying to clear debt, any more than it is today.

If you'd have looked at the person I was responding to, and got some sort of context about my post instead of just seeing the words "Labour" and "debt" in the same sentence and deciding to throw a lecture down, you'll see the reason I brought Labour up.

Floopa voted Brexit in the hopes that it would bring a left wing government into power. My point was, it doesn't matter who is in charge during Post Brexit, because they'll be too busy dealing with the after effects of Brexit to do anything meaningful, and whether it's Labour or the Tories in charge, they'll rack up debt. And then if Labour does get into power after Brexit, and has to oversee the trainwreck that it's going to be, the Tories will eventually get back into power by running on a campaign to reduce debt and bring the economy back under control (as they always do), and they'll win (because people have short memories), and then we'll be stuck with fucking Austerity, again.

[Noradin]

the Tories will eventually get back into power by running on a campaign to reduce debt and bring the economy back under control (as they always do).

I think it should be clarified that this sentence does not make any claim whether they do in fact reduce debt, just that they run their campaign on supposedly doing it.
Before anyone else jumps to conclusions.

[Nigel Tufnel]

If you'd have looked at the person I was responding to, and got some sort of context about my post instead of just seeing the words "Labour" and "debt" in the same sentence and deciding to throw a lecture down, you'll see the reason I brought Labour up.

Floopa voted Brexit in the hopes that it would bring a left wing government into power. My point was, it doesn't matter who is in charge during Post Brexit, because they'll be too busy dealing with the after effects of Brexit to do anything meaningful, and whether it's Labour or the Tories in charge, they'll rack up debt. And then if Labour does get into power after Brexit, and has to oversee the trainwreck that it's going to be, the Tories will eventually get back into power by running on a campaign to reduce debt and bring the economy back under control (as they always do), and they'll win (because people have short memories), and then we'll be stuck with fucking Austerity, again.

Exactly this.... the whole thing is beyond ludicrous.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b04aa23f268392

Well done Labour! Respecting the will of the people! You'll be able to renationalise the railways! Oh wait..... there's no money.

Fuckwits. Absolute fuckwits.

The whole country is so polarised. Corbyn, Rees-Mogg, Abbott, Johnson, McDonnell, Farage etc. etc.

Where the fuck is the centre? Eviscerated by the Marxists in Momentum.

Yes, the Tories are evil. But Huehuecoyotl and Labour are just as bad. Ideologues hell-bent on self-destruction.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Well done Labour! Respecting the will of the people! You'll be able to renationalise the railways! Oh wait..... there's no money.

You know that if you want to disagree with something, it's probably worth reading up enough to know what it is you are disagreeing with.

The plan for railways is to take them back into public ownership as each franchise comes up for renewal. So it won't actually cost anything. In fact, those franchises generate more money for the government to spend when they are in public ownership. So it will actually improve the public finances, give more money to invest in the infrastructure and keep fares under better control.

Of course, it won't be putting money into the pockets of private companies, or foreign transport companies, but I think we can cope with that downside.

[Nigel Tufnel]

You say tomato, I say tomato.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...y-family-6500/