The Brexit aftermath thread

[Kallisto]

It's not why, it's how. Canada cannot give a better deal to the UK without damaging its deals with the EU and the US. The important parts of trade deals are regulatory alignments and you can only really belong to one constellation of trade areas because they are mutually exclusive.

It's also illegal for Canada or anyone that has a trade deal with the EU to give a better one to a non EU nation (except maybe Canada with nafta) . There are clauses in the agreements which the EU put in which pretty much states as such.

Also in regards to commonwealth the UK offers little to the world and nothing the EU doesn't anyway. Plus a deal with the EU for these countries = more richer customers.

As for African countries? All of them combined don't reach half the gdp of France alone. Thinking that trading around the world where one continent isn't even half as rich as our closest neighbour in mainland Europe is crazy.

[Slant]

It's not why, it's how. Canada cannot give a better deal to the UK without damaging its deals with the EU and the US. The important parts of trade deals are regulatory alignments and you can only really belong to one constellation of trade areas because they are mutually exclusive.

The funny bit is that no one seems to realise the EU is hogging all the streets in this game of monopoly. It's ridiculous how the EU is scrambling to get FTAs in place. And everytime the US hare turns up somewhere, the EU turtoise goes "I'm already here!"

When this rush of deals is over, the EU will have a lot of cards in its hand and the US will beg to be part of it. I'm very much looking forward to TTIP 2.0, when the US realises they're not impressing anyone with their blackmail trade agreements because everyone is trading around them.

[Deleted]

A non legally binding opinion poll? For the good feelings I assume because those are important.

For the democracy we actually vote for, not an opinion poll about something people knew nothing about.

[Kiri]

That's kind of racist. Countries like Australia, Canada and India are not third world nations or whatever it is you are implying. India overtook the UK some time ago. Moreover almost all of these countries are likely to grow fast as they develop.

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You make an individual trade deal then you can optimize that negotiation for the interests of your own country. Who do you think these trade deals are designed to benefit most: the Germans or Estonia?

The CETA already eliminates like 98% of tariffs between the EU and Canada. It is a free trade agreement. How exactly do you suppose a better one will work? A free trade agreement and also a pony? I really do not see the UK just 'getting' better conditions - especially after it voluntarily just snapped tariffs back in place by leaving the EU.

However, you are right that this deal is likely not the one Estonia would have wanted, though I am not sure why everyone keeps digging at the Germans. Anyway, Estonia might have preferred a different one. But the thing is, it likely would not have gotten it on its own. The EU is a huge market, which big nations have a vested interest to gain access to. Estonia's market, per definition, is much smaller - especially compared to Canada. As such, Canada has more power in the negotiations.

You are right that bilateral trade deals are usually optimized for your own country. The thing is, Canada does that too. They are not just giving anyone favorable deals just because they ask nicely. The EU has enough bargaining power to strike a deal like the one we have now. Estonia would not. A lot of leavers I talked to love the first part, but ignore the latter. Likely because they believe that Commonwealth countries will just give them the best conditions because of historical ties. Even Canada and India, two of the countries mentioned, do not have an FTA between them, despite trying to negotiate one for quite a while. Why would they just fast-track one for the UK? What does the UK offer over the EU? It has a smaller market, less political clout, and no real stability economically and politically right now. Just about the only thing it can offer is 'less regulations', like with those germ thingies. But aside from that?
Mind you, I am not trash talking the UK here. It still has a lot to offer. But, when asking ourselves who would get the better terms, we have to directly compare them. And objectively, does the UK really have more to offer than the EU?

[Deleted]

The entire Brexiteer position is "We're better than everyone else, so they'll just give us what we want".

That's all there is to it really, they think that for some reason Canada, Australia and New Zealand are just going to bend over backwards to trade with us, and they'll offer us trade deals with nothing in return, they won't try to take advantage of us because they're nice I guess?

Ofcourse we can't actually get a better trade deal than they already have with the EU, because one of the primary clauses in any trade deal with the EU is that you need to give the EU the best deal, if you give someone a better deal, you better match it and then some to the EU. So we're never going to get better trade deals than what the EU can give us, because no one is going to throwaway favourable trading with one of the most powerful trading blocs on the planet, for a "good" deal with an island of 66 million people.

There's a small part of me that will enjoy a No Deal Brexit, just to watch Brexiteers face the reality that no one cares about the Empire we used to have, and that we aren't relevant at all on a world stage of superpowers and trading blocs.

[Dizzeeyooo]

You make an individual trade deal then you can optimize that negotiation for the interests of your own country. Who do you think these trade deals are designed to benefit most: the Germans or Estonia?

which do you think is capable of getting a better overall trade deal with a large 3rd country, Estonia solo, Germany solo, or Estonia + Germany combined?

why do you think India or Canada would be more inclined to make concessions when negotiating with a country of 66 million customers, vs a trading block of 513 million customers?

[Acidbaron]

That's kind of racist. Countries like Australia, Canada and India are not third world nations or whatever it is you are implying. India overtook the UK some time ago. Moreover almost all of these countries are likely to grow fast as they develop.

Yes, the brexit was rather racist in nature. But let's not rehash things well know, Canada won't subject to a weak UK considering the strong beneficial deal in place between them and the EU. Indeed many nations are developing and overtaking the UK putting the UK in the weak seat when it comes to negotiation, leaving you to only broker good deals between weaker states what are the african nations. That is if the EU, China and US allow that to happen.

I also invite you to look up how long trade deals take to obtain. Even if i humour you and step into your version of reality it would mean a small decade without trade from those nations you just mention.

If you were around on this thread long enough you would have learned this facts by now, people hiding on burners are so childish, however they might explain why they get banned so often and need to make new accounts a complete lack of maturity.

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https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-deal-29-march

the trains gains momentum, nobody is so insane to trust government to get the shit done anymore.
but UK will have to ask EU nicely for such delay; just stating "Tess May is silly, we need more time" is not sufficent for any extension. time will tell, but it should happen within 2 weeks.

Without a lack of progress or sign of stability on the UK front, i see no reason why the UK should be granted more time to hold the EU markets in limbo with their partisan games.

[dribbles]

which do you think is capable of getting a better overall trade deal with a large 3rd country, Estonia solo, Germany solo, or Estonia + Germany combined?

why do you think India or Canada would be more inclined to make concessions when negotiating with a country of 66 million customers, vs a trading block of 513 million customers?

But 400 million of those 500 million "customers" (ex Germany, France and a peppercorn of others) are little better and have no more discretionary spending power than Venezuelans.

Without a lack of progress or sign of stability on the UK front, i see no reason why the UK should be granted more time to hold the EU markets in limbo with their partisan games.

Oh I absolutely agree. The EU markets should have no more time whatsoever and their access to the City of London and its funding abilities denied with immediate effect. Let the world watch it burn...

[Acidbaron]

Oh I absolutely agree. The EU markets should have no more time whatsoever and their access to the City of London and its funding abilities denied with immediate effect. Let the world watch it burn...

Every time you post i feel a little sad, because it reminds me how i lost access to my american netflix account and can no longer watch the twilight zone, so sad

[ati87]

But neither Australia or India are in any hurry to negotiate a trade deal with brexit Britain, they have bigger fish to fry.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...t-commonwealth
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8292091.html

Ofc they aren't. For any countries the most important partner will always be there closest neighbours with some exceptions. You don't start replacing your neighbours overnight, India may have allot of potential or room for growth but that does not replace Europe as a trading partner.

Brexit folks have been wrong in regards to everything since day 1.

[Slant]

Brexit folks have been wrong in regards to everything since day 1.

This cannot be overstated. The only thing keeping them together at this point is sheer stubbornness... The little coherence their argument had was lost a long time ago. See Dribs latest vomit about the EU crashing and burning without access to the financial market in London...

[Amalaric]

Perhaps London could leave the UK and form it's own city state like that of the great Italian cities of the 14th, 15th and 16th centuries?

[Acidbaron]

Perhaps London could leave the UK and form it's own city state like that of the great Italian cities of the 14th, 15th and 16th centuries?

London is part of the reason for the political elite why a Brexit is taking place. They fear the ever increasing control from the EU on the financial sector that has been funnelling blood and corrupt money into legal markets for decades.

It's also only attractive to said figures due to their access into the EU markets. So how efficient the city will remain in their criminal activities post-Brexit is to be seen.

[Slant]

London is part of the reason for the political elite why a Brexit is taking place. They fear the ever increasing control from the EU on the financial sector that has been funnelling blood and corrupt money into legal markets for decades.

It's also only attractive to said figures due to their access into the EU markets. So how efficient the city will remain in their criminal activities post-Brexit is to be seen.

The surreal bit about this is... they are doing it to themselves. Nobody forced them to. London didn't want to, for obvious reasons, but the UK is actually doing this to itself voluntarily, without any necessity to do this. I think that's the least understandable part of it.

[Kiri]

But 400 million of those 500 million "customers" (ex Germany, France and a peppercorn of others) are little better and have no more discretionary spending power than Venezuelans.

Eeek, wrong!
I know, math is hard, but let's see about that.
First, let us look at Germany and France alone. With a bit of rounding, those have 83 and 67 million, respectively. Now, using an advanced technique called 'subtraction', we can already prove you wrong, since
512-83-67-66 (since Britain would not be part of the EU in this comparison)= 296.
You are already over 100 million off on that alone, i.e. a population bigger than that of your own country. Let's see if we can increase that even more and take a look at the peppercorn.

Since it is a bit hard to find out the discrtionary spending power of Venezuelans, I am going to be generous and utilize purchasing power parity for this. Not the greatest variable, but hey, at least the CIA world factbook has it listed. And I am not really going to expend more time on this than a quick google anyway. It does take the pricing of similar goods into account, so it should be fine. You are welcome to offer a better comparison though, if you can be bothered to do so. I am not using PPP/Capita though, since those values are dominated by small countries like Liechtenstein and Luxembourgh. Not the cleanest comparison, but still better than pulling numbers out of one's behind.

Either way, let's see which country are part of the EU and have a higher PPP than Venezuela, aside from the two mentioned.
I can see Italy here, 61 million.
Then there is Spain with 47 million.
Ohey, and Poland with 38 million.
And the Netherlands, 17 million.
Then we have 10 million Swedes, 11 million Belgians and about 9 million Austrians.
Oh and our friends the Romanians, another 20 million.
Think I will leave it at this here, it ends up being a list of big countries within the EU anyway, just without Greece and the Czech. Still though, that's like another 200 million right there. By this point, 'Germany, France and a peppercorn' already accounts for like at least 66% of the market. Then again, the 400 million are already disproven just with the former two, so I guess it just means you are slightly more wrong.

[Slant]

Think I will leave it at this here, it ends up being a list of big countries within the EU anyway, just without Greece and the Czech. Still though, that's like another 200 million right there. By this point, 'Germany, France and a peppercorn' already accounts for like at least 66% of the market. Then again, the 400 million are already disproven just with the former two, so I guess it just means you are slightly more wrong.

Erm, he's not wrong... he's lying. How are you still not getting it? Brexit and Brexiteers is a campaign of deceit, lies and frankly... fraud. Because I'm fairly certain the main antagonists in this movie have made a tidy sum from this. Even Farage's 30 year campaign in Brussels earning him a big fat pension for actually shitting on the job place he's suppoed to be working in.

Btw, for the Brexiteers that are still brave enough to visit between hiding shamefully in their hole... how's the 100 million pound contracts for the ferries doing for you guys? Much profit?

Here's the bloody best part of this... dare I say typical... British irony:

Three suppliers were awarded a total of £107.7m:

£46.6m to the French company Brittany Ferries
£47.3m to Danish shipping firm DFDS
£13.8m to British firm Seaborne Freight

So, in the case of a hard Brexit, that the British wanted to... boost their own economy, make trade deals and be "better" and more "sovereign". But now they have signed contracts with ferries to keep on tugging the life-preserving goods (medicines, food) over to the island. And 2 of those contracted companies are not British. And of those 107m pounds, only 14 go to a British company.



I mean, thanks for the money, I guess...? Can someone please let an adult person run that country... this is legit a case of "Fremdschämen" for a lack of an English word. Look it up.

[dribbles]

Oh I absolutely agree with this, I am ashamed to be British this country can go and royally fuck itself I'm looking to move to my partners homeland still and I think we are going to go ahead with it in 3 months.

Good luck! Could you do it before there is a second referendum? If there is one. Always good to see the back of another remainer swinging the balance and strengthening further the UK brexiteers postion. I wonder how many have already gone? Could enough go, should there be a second referendum, to swing the vote 80/20 in favour of Brexit?

Not sure where you are going but lets take Germany as an example. Are you allowed dual citizenship there? Or do you have to give up British citizenship to take German? Do you lose valuable index linking of past UK state pension contributions? Are you of an age where you are required to provide national service to your new adopted country? Fancy a spell in Afghanistan do you maybe?

Oh well good luck, all the best, don't forget to shut the door on your way out.

Eeek, wrong!
I know, math is hard, but let's see about that.
First, let us look at Germany and France alone. With a bit of rounding, those have 83 and 67 million, respectively. Now, using an advanced technique called 'subtraction', we can already prove you wrong, since
512-83-67-66 (since Britain would not be part of the EU in this comparison)= 296.
You are already over 100 million off on that alone, i.e. a population bigger than that of your own country. Let's see if we can increase that even more and take a look at the peppercorn.

Since it is a bit hard to find out the discrtionary spending power of Venezuelans, I am going to be generous and utilize purchasing power parity for this. Not the greatest variable, but hey, at least the CIA world factbook has it listed. And I am not really going to expend more time on this than a quick google anyway. It does take the pricing of similar goods into account, so it should be fine. You are welcome to offer a better comparison though, if you can be bothered to do so. I am not using PPP/Capita though, since those values are dominated by small countries like Liechtenstein and Luxembourgh. Not the cleanest comparison, but still better than pulling numbers out of one's behind.

Either way, let's see which country are part of the EU and have a higher PPP than Venezuela, aside from the two mentioned.
I can see Italy here, 61 million.
Then there is Spain with 47 million.
Ohey, and Poland with 38 million.
And the Netherlands, 17 million.
Then we have 10 million Swedes, 11 million Belgians and about 9 million Austrians.
Oh and our friends the Romanians, another 20 million.
Think I will leave it at this here, it ends up being a list of big countries within the EU anyway, just without Greece and the Czech. Still though, that's like another 200 million right there. By this point, 'Germany, France and a peppercorn' already accounts for like at least 66% of the market. Then again, the 400 million are already disproven just with the former two, so I guess it just means you are slightly more wrong.

Nice try, did you subtract the 100 million EU poverty stricken pensioners though? What about the 50 million EU children, non working students? The 10's of millions disabled? The 10's of millions of stay at home women, a bit of cooking and needlecraft doesn't provide much discretionary spending power. The 10's of millions of unemployed EU layabouts existing on state benefits paid for by UK taxpayers?

I suggest you rework those figures and at least halve your initial assumptions of a population of 500 million economically productive EU people.

Stop spreading misinformation with your flawed theses that's more like faeces.

[Deleted]

The 10's of millions of unemployed EU layabouts existing on state benefits paid for by UK taxpayers?

What?!? Lmfao.......

[Slant]

Nice try, did you subtract the 100 million EU poverty stricken pensioners though? What about the 50 million EU children, non working students? The 10's of millions disabled? The 10's of millions of stay at home women, a bit of cooking and needlecraft doesn't provide much discretionary spending power. The 10's of millions of unemployed EU layabouts existing on state benefits paid for by UK taxpayers?

I suggest you rework those figures and at least halve your initial assumptions of a population of 500 million economically productive EU people.

Stop spreading misinformation with your flawed theses that's more like faeces.

Did you do the same for the UK? Oh wait, I forgot... you wanted out of the EU so you can have children working again beginning at the age of 5.

[dribbles]

Did you do the same for the UK? Oh wait, I forgot... you wanted out of the EU so you can have children working again beginning at the age of 5.

Now you mention it, my chimney does need sweeping...