The Brexit aftermath thread

[Dizzeeyooo]

Oh god, if that's how this works this is incredibly stupid or May has decided to back No Deal.

Backing the amendment allowed her to carry on as a PM "with power" for a few more weeks, that is her only priority at this point.

[Slant]

Frankly not sure that it's such a terrible idea, that a country which parliments voting equals to screaming, and then walking through a door where a guy counts heads is such a great loss. The UK is stock in the 19th century.

The loss to their economy is obvious to anyone except the blind ignorants.

Now, now. Don't be unreasonable. Our Parliament does something similar, called "hand signals" and "Hammelsprung" (look it up). Having a quick method to see if there is a unanimous decision is not a bad method to speed things up. And organising an entire vote with ballots and a big chest in the middle and then counting all of those, recounting just to be sure etc... that takes a lot more time than simply having people go through the Yay or Nay doors.

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A great place to live?! A great place to live?!

Are you completely mental?

There will be violence in Northern Ireland! There may be violence on mainland Britain! Scotland may leave the Union. The economy will tank because if the EU slaps tariffs of 50% on beef, no fucker is going to buy it! Nissan will stop making cars in the UK! Airbus, Toyota, JLR, BMW. Sterling will plummet further. Yadda, yadda, yadda.

Stop underplaying this.

Thank you, this is absolutely the appropriate amount of outrage. Mind you, I have been chastised in the past for doing that, so be prepared for some backlash.

[Nigel Tufnel]

ldknfadsofafgadsf

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

wonder if there will be a proper day of rage and not a waitrose shoppers take your kids day of rage

It's forecast to snow in the next few days, probably won't be much protesting in the streets this week.

[Pann]

No, they want unicorns. They won't get them. Backstop is unacceptable to too many. Reverse the 432 - 202 defeat?

We crash out.

Maybe they do. And maybe they won't get get them. But it will depend on what happens over the next couple of weeks. It may well be that the alternative arrangements are easy enough for the EU and UK to agree or it may be that the desire to avoid no deal is strong enough in both the EU and the UK that they kick the can down the road or it could be that UK MPs bottle it at the last minute.

There are lots of things that can happen between now and the end of Feb but if you want to get angry about it that's up to you however it is unlikely to change anything.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...55988153155584

Irish govt reaction - 'The Withdrawal Agreement is not open for re-negotiation'

So the Irish government and the EU government are on the same page vis-a-vis the re-opening of the WA.

Maybe they do. And maybe they won't get get them. But it will depend on what happens over the next couple of weeks. It may well be that the alternative arrangements are easy enough for the EU and UK to agree or it may be that the desire to avoid no deal is strong enough in both the EU and the UK that they kick the can down the road or it could be that UK MPs bottle it at the last minute.

There are lots of things that can happen between now and the end of Feb but if you want to get angry about it that's up to you however it is unlikely to change anything.

If "alternative arrangements" are so easy to find that they can be written into a legal document in the next two weeks, why haven't they been found in the last 30 months?

I think the HoC is more likely to bottle it in this game of chicken and either agree to the original text of the WA or to cancel Brexit entirely than they are to work out a way of keeping a border unpatrolled and open for both goods and people to pass without needing to show a passport while protecting the border between the EU and the UK post-brexit.

[Pann]

Fair point, I deleted it.

Thank you. I have edited it out my reply.

[Slant]

Tusk has, within the last few minutes issued a statement saying that the EU will not reopen negotiations.

I despair at the arrogance of those who allowed this.

Even us amateurs on this forum... a fucking gaming forum... saw this coming clear as day. No idea what else to say about that... fucking hell.

[Dizzeeyooo]

It may well be that the alternative arrangements are easy enough for the EU and UK to agree

For what feels like the 50th time - the point of the backstop is to be an insurance against all other "alternative arrangements" failing to materialize - supposedly reasonable people here really need to stop blindly trying to comment about things they do not understand

[Slant]

Why will we crash out? Parliament has not only made it clear that the backstop is not acceptable but, and this is the important part, they also want a deal. If the EU do not renegotiate it is entirely possible that they will vote through May's deal.

Have you missed the Commons rejecting her deal with a two-third majority?

[Pann]

Oh god, if that's how this works this is incredibly stupid or May has decided to back No Deal.

It is not. The amendment is not binding on the government.

[Dizzeeyooo]

Ultimately I don't get where you get this conviction that a new solution to a need for border checks can happen any time soon if none was available up till now. The EU DID look for one after all.

Davis, Raab and others have been talking about alternative arrangements for 2+ years. The words "alternative arrangements" are as far as they managed to get in that time - tells you everything you need to know.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Thank you. I have edited it out my reply.

I'll rehash it: the poster was underplaying the likelihood of a resurgence in sectarian violence.

[Pann]

The legal complexity of the Withdrawal Agreement makes it improbable that it can be replaced with Alternative Arrangements. Unless of course they just changed the title of that part of the Withdrawal Agreement to Alternative Arrangements (which is what I'd do, it'd be hilarious).
Ultimately I don't get where you get this conviction that a new solution to a need for border checks can happen any time soon if none was available up till now. The EU DID look for one after all.

There's a lot of politics being played at the moment and to be honest nothing much has changed, yet. I think it is best to see how the dust settles.

[Demolitia]

Maybe they do. And maybe they won't get get them. But it will depend on what happens over the next couple of weeks. It may well be that the alternative arrangements are easy enough for the EU and UK to agree or it may be that the desire to avoid no deal is strong enough in both the EU and the UK that they kick the can down the road or it could be that UK MPs bottle it at the last minute.

There are lots of things that can happen between now and the end of Feb but if you want to get angry about it that's up to you however it is unlikely to change anything.

The wording of the deal and the backstop are exceedingly vague and creative, to EC standards. I am not sure you can expect much more from them.
There are a few problems with kicking the can down the road.
The first part is that the deal is already kicking the can down the road until the actual future relationship is agreed.
The second bit is that there is a new bunch of MEPs coming in July, increasingly europhobes which will mean the EU will have to focus its attention elsewhere.
Everybody wants to get the temporary deal bullshit out of the way asap. I'm not sure anything that has happend in the House of Commons in the last few months will encourage the EU to show more goodwil

[Dizzeeyooo]

I have to ask since I am not planning to watch these parliament discussions, have the proponents of Alternative Arrangements been directly presented with the hypocrisy of their statements? I mean if they think those Arrangements exist, they can present them the very day of Brexit and the backstop will stop being active the second they are working.

May and Barclay were asked multiple times by increasingly annoyed MPs from various parties to explain what alternative arrangements there would be - the most coherent reply was "that will need to be negotiated".

Despite that pathetic answer, the Cooper & Grieve amendments failed and the Brady amendment passed.

[Slant]

Maybe they do. And maybe they won't get get them. But it will depend on what happens over the next couple of weeks. It may well be that the alternative arrangements are easy enough for the EU and UK to agree or it may be that the desire to avoid no deal is strong enough in both the EU and the UK that they kick the can down the road or it could be that UK MPs bottle it at the last minute.

There are lots of things that can happen between now and the end of Feb but if you want to get angry about it that's up to you however it is unlikely to change anything.

First, those are a lot of maybes. Second, what happens in the next couple weeks is plain for everyone to see: Nothing will happen in the next couple of weeks. Those alternative arrangements? The EU doesn't know what those are. The EU would very much like to know what they are. Until that happens, the EU is simply ignoring that bit, because... they didn't come up with that shit. So no, the EU won't agree to anything "alternative arrangements" or "technical solutions" without the UK delivering a big and lengthy explanation of what those things entail.

And even then... the EU will reject anything that they deem inadequate or against EU treaties or the GFA. So even those "alternative agreements" aren't a 100% sure thing, they're just fantasies at this point.

The EU is preparing for no-deal. There is no "being against it strong enough" about it. It is an automatism that has been set in motion 2 years ago and the EU won't sacrifice its core principles, its treaties, the GFA or anything else just because the UK really, really, really wants it. And it said pretty please, too! This isn't a child pleading with his parents... it's adult politics. You don't get a prize for good intentions.

[Slant]

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...55988153155584



So the Irish government and the EU government are on the same page vis-a-vis the re-opening of the WA.

As they have been since day 1. Nothing has changed.

[Nigel Tufnel]

There are lots of things that can happen between now and the end of Feb but if you want to get angry about it that's up to you however it is unlikely to change anything.

So, what exactly should we get angry about? Cruelty to animals? My class has been nerfed?

As a Remainer, if you can't summon up an ounce of anger regarding this, then I question your beliefs.

[Demolitia]

I would not find it hard to expect less unity in the new Parliament.

The EU is doing a ridiculously bad job at getting people at the polls at a time when it is extremely important to prevent a crisis.

Well there is a timetable. Brexit wasn't exactly on the agenda back when the parliamentary term was decided

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So, what exactly should we get angry about? Cruelty to animals? My class has been nerfed?

As a Remainer, if you can't summon up an ounce of anger regarding this, then I question your beliefs.

Direct your anger at your government and MPs