The Brexit aftermath thread

[Shakadam]

What trade do you do personally with, as you allege, the largest trading bloc in the world that you won't be able to do post Brexit? That is not an example. To give you an example to try to help you out here, I order my Diesel Jeans direct from them in Italy, are you saying from April in a no deal I won't be able to? I won't be able to go to their website, stick my credit card details in and a few days later my Jeans are delivered to my door? Who does that hurt the most?...

Come on, engage your brain if you have one. Name one thing you are personally going to lose because of Brexit...

I'm waiting... tap tap tap.

Sure you will. Those jeans will just be a whole lot more expensive to buy because of customs/import fees.

Likewise, anything produced in the UK will be more expensive to buy for anyone outside the UK, so to remain competitive on a global market UK companies will have to reduce the price of their products, which means they'll have to reduce expenses to not go bankrupt, which essentially means your wages will be lower, and anything you buy that's not from the UK will, as I said, be more expensive.

So to summarize: You'll earn less money and almost everything you buy (because the UK doesn't produce even close to what it consumes, hence, imports) will be more expensive.

[Dhrizzle]

I am sorry to reduce your efforts to one simple question, but what exactly are we going to lose? The pleasure of sending £350 million a week to the EU?

Name one thing that I personally am going to lose...I won't hold my breath...tap tap tap...

The benefits of being an integral member of a huge trading bloc with which we enjoy free trade, an arrangement that far outweighs the £350170m week net contribution to the EU.

This may not mean much to you with the personal wealth to make some sort of profit out of misery, but for the millions of people who voted Remain, or voted Leave only because they were lied to (by your own admission) this could mean a massive drop in quality of life as well as restricted opportunities.

[ranzino]

i think he means he wants to talk about EHIC and his loss of rights to live/study/travel across the eu, roaming charges and all that good stuff.

a small token of disadvantage: ETIAS (sort of visa waiver) is needed in case of any Brexit. €7 for 3 years term and the admission is valid for 90 days only per trip.

[dribbles]

a small token of disadvantage: ETIAS (sort of visa waiver) is needed in case of any Brexit. €7 for 3 years term and the admission is valid for 90 days only per trip.

So the EU is costing me about £250 a year in personal membership fees at the minute or £750 for three years. All I use the EU for is the odd ski trip in the winter. After Brexit my three year cost to enable this will be 7 euro rather than £750?

That's no disadvantage, that's an advantage. Lovin it, keep those examples of the brexit dividend coming eurochums...

[Dizzeeyooo]

German car industry finally intervenes in the Brexit debate - by asking UK buyers who place deposits on cars to commit to paying additional fees in the event of a no deal Brexit.

I guess the German car industry does not actually need us more than we need them exDee.

[Slant]

German car industry finally intervenes in the Brexit debate - by asking UK buyers who place deposits on cars to commit to paying additional fees in the event of a no deal Brexit.

I guess the German car industry does not actually need us more than we need them exDee.

Dude, stop with the project fear. This isn't happening. WTO rules don't work like that, everyone knows WTO rules means England gets everything for free, don'tcherknow.

[Fuiking]

So the EU is costing me about £250 a year in personal membership fees at the minute or £750 for three years. All I use the EU for is the odd ski trip in the winter. After Brexit my three year cost to enable this will be 7 euro rather than £750?

That's no disadvantage, that's an advantage. Lovin it, keep those examples of the brexit dividend coming eurochums...

Thats on top of everything. but dream on Fibbles.

[LeGin Tufnel]

And you must be an American since you use the word liberal which means something else in Europe.

Yep, he also spelt ‘izing with a z instead of a ‘s. I think I’ve been successfully trolled by a Yank pretending to be a Corbynista.

[Mayhem]

So the EU is costing me about £250 a year in personal membership fees at the minute or £750 for three years. All I use the EU for is the odd ski trip in the winter. After Brexit my three year cost to enable this will be 7 euro rather than £750?

That's no disadvantage, that's an advantage. Lovin it, keep those examples of the brexit dividend coming eurochums...

Soooo you're ignoring the jeans thing already?

[pathwathal]

And you must be an American since you use the word liberal which means something else in Europe.

The Independent and the Guardian are the ones running those stories. I don't know how you could describe them as anything other than liberal since they backed Nick Clegg and hate Corbyn.

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Yes, but you're just a racist prick and no-one cares what you think. So.

As if the world pauses when you speak...

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Sure you will. Those jeans will just be a whole lot more expensive to buy because of customs/import fees.

Likewise, anything produced in the UK will be more expensive to buy for anyone outside the UK, so to remain competitive on a global market UK companies will have to reduce the price of their products, which means they'll have to reduce expenses to not go bankrupt, which essentially means your wages will be lower, and anything you buy that's not from the UK will, as I said, be more expensive.

So to summarize: You'll earn less money and almost everything you buy (because the UK doesn't produce even close to what it consumes, hence, imports) will be more expensive.

I doubt anything produced in the UK will be more expensive to buy. The manufacturing sector has been in permanent recession because of the strength of sterling, which was artificially propped up by the ponzi scheme/welfare scrounging of financial services. Sterling is already 20% off its height, it will likely fall at least 20% further after no-deal. The difficulties faced by the manufacturing sector and the disaffected working class were a big part of the brexit vote.

It really is a waste of time europeans commenting on this stuff. You have no idea what is going on here. You have the whole thing backwards.

(Disclaimer: I did not vote for Brexit. I do not support it. I would vote remain tomorrow. If I disagree with you it is probably because you are wrong, not because of idiot tribal/binary prejudice).

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Yep, he also spelt ‘izing with a z instead of a ‘s. I think I’ve been successfully trolled by a Yank pretending to be a Corbynista.

You really need to quit drinking for a while.

[Dizzeeyooo]

So the EU is costing me about £250 a year in personal membership fees at the minute

Would love to see the maths behind this calculation, it sounds incredibly Expressey.

I doubt anything produced in the UK will be more expensive to buy

So items made in the UK that rely on imported ingredients will not become more expensive to buy, as the pound tanks and those imported ingredients become relatively far more expensive for UK manufacturers to purchase?

[Dhrizzle]

Would love to see the maths behind this calculation, it sounds incredibly Expressey.


So items made in the UK that rely on imported ingredients will not become more expensive to buy, as the pound tanks and those imported ingredients become relatively far more expensive for UK manufacturers to purchase?

UK spends £772bn a year and makes a net contribution of £8.9bn to the EU, roughly 1.15%

Dribbles is claiming £250 is 1.15% of his tax bill, which would make his annual taxes (presumably including VAT) somewhere around £25,000 i.e. his tax bill is more than the earnings of the people who will suffer under Brexit.

In other words he is either very comfortably well off and doesn't care about screwing the poor, deliberately lying, talking shit because he doesn't understand or a combination of the three.

[pathwathal]

You REALLY don't get it - liberal does not mean left wing aside from in the US.

Yes dopey, what you are missing is the Guardian and the Independent are not left-wing. They are concerned entirely with liberal issues, identity politics and ecological issues. They do not support redistribution of wealth, nationalization of failing private industries or any kind of socialist policies to any meaningful extent. Or, if you prefer, they are "champagne socialists".

Again, we have a continental european laying down the law erroneously on matters within the UK. This is getting old.

[dribbles]

Would love to see the maths behind this calculation, it sounds incredibly Expressey.

UK spends £772bn a year and makes a net contribution of £8.9bn to the EU, roughly 1.15%

Dribbles is claiming £250 is 1.15% of his tax bill, which would make his annual taxes (presumably including VAT) somewhere around £25,000 i.e. his tax bill is more than the earnings of the people who will suffer under Brexit.

In other words he is either very comfortably well off and doesn't care about screwing the poor, deliberately lying, talking shit because he doesn't understand or a combination of the three.

At your service...

Calculations show that the EU costs each British citizen 69p a day. And so 0.69x365x3= £755.55 is the rough 3 year costs per person. As opposed to getting the very same personal benefits for 7 euro for 3 years. It's a no brainer...

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-...-coffee-index/

Why don't you use the table for where you live Eurochums and check how much you could save?

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

I doubt anything produced in the UK will be more expensive to buy. The manufacturing sector has been in permanent recession because of the strength of sterling, which was artificially propped up by the ponzi scheme/welfare scrounging of financial services. Sterling is already 20% off its height, it will likely fall at least 20% further after no-deal. The difficulties faced by the manufacturing sector and the disaffected working class were a big part of the brexit vote.

The pound losing value means it is cheaper for other countries to buy the UK's stuff, but it makes it more expensive for the UK to buy other countries' stuff.

Say I manufacture wine glasses in the UK, and currently import the sand required to do so from France. I sell a glass for 10 pounds or 12 euro (they are really nice wine glasses), and I pay 12 euro per tonne of sand.

The value of Stirling drops compared to the Euro by, say, about 10%.

I still have to pay 12 euro per tonne of sand, but the exchange rate to euro is now 1 pound buys 1.10 euro. My cost to buy materials is now approximately 11 pounds per tonne. Not only this, but I have to pay import duties on the sand, and export fees on the glasses because the UK wants to leave the European Customs Union. I also need to consider buying more materials to buffer a possible increase in customs clearance times to maintain production speed (this ties up capital that I could be using to invest in the business).

If I still want to sell my wine glasses for 10 pounds, customers in the EU now only have to pay ~11 euro (10% less due to the shift in currency value). This is great news for them! They get the same high-quality wine glasses for 90% of the original cost. To make the same level of revenue from EU sales, I thus need to increase the price of my glasses to compensate for the increase in raw material cost, or I need to make my product less expensive to manufacture. I have a few options open for me:

1. Pass the increases in total BoM on to my customers (making me less competitive in the highly-congested expensive wine glass market).
2. Downsize the staff (like Activision did last week) or cut their pay and hours (a good way to get people to quit).
3. Fire the expert glass-blowers, and employ cheaper (but less good) glass-blowers in their place (cue the papers lambasting me for moving British worker's jobs to lower-cost immigrants).
4. Buy the sand from somewhere else and increase the proportion of recycled glass (but then I lose a USP by no longer using the super-high quality French sand that the customers who are prepared to drop 100 quid on a set of ten wine glasses think makes the glasses worth a tenner each)
5. If the demand from EU customers is high enough, I can relocate production for the European market to France. Saves logistics costs, customs and excise headaches, and I make the same amount of revenue as before (more of it is profit).
6. If EU demand far outstrips the domestic demand, and my cost/benefit analysis ends up giving me the right numbers, I could even choose to close the factory in the UK and move all of my production overseas.

Which of these scenarios is going to end up with a net increase to my contribution to the domestic economy (thus increasing the value of the economy as a whole)?

These are issues that UK manufacturers are having to think about in preparation for Brexit. Reductions in the value of Stirling mainly benefit UK companies that can source the majority of their raw materials from within the UK. Depending on the proportion of where materials are sourced from, it can make no difference over-all, or even increase the cost of the finished product to the end-consumer.

These business decisions are not specific to the UK. They are not even specific to the manufacturing industry (or that what is left of it in the UK). They are decisions that every business in every country has to make. Right now, I don't see the case for a booming UK economy post-Brexit, if you look at it through an accountant's eyes.

Would love to see the maths behind this calculation, it sounds incredibly Expressey.

Probably divided the annual contribution by the population. Not sure if he included the rebate and the money returned both to the government and private industry though.

[pathwathal]

So items made in the UK that rely on imported ingredients will not become more expensive to buy, as the pound tanks and those imported ingredients become relatively far more expensive for UK manufacturers to purchase?

Specific classes of exports may or may not benefit due to myriad factors. I'm talking about the general trend-and it is impossible to argue manufacturing will be hurt by Brexit since it has been dead for decades.

[Dhrizzle]

At your service...

Calculations show that the EU costs each British citizen 69p a day. And so 0.69x365x3= £755.55 is the rough 3 year costs per person. As opposed to getting the very same personal benefits for 7 euro for 3 years. It's a no brainer...

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-...-coffee-index/

Why don't you use the table for where you live Eurochums and check how much you could save?

That's the average paid per person, you said that's how much you personally paid. Are you really so out of touch you think every person in the UK pays the same amount of tax or did you not bother trying to understand the article?

[pathwathal]

The pound losing value means it is cheaper for other countries to buy the UK's stuff, but it makes it more expensive for the UK to buy other countries' stuff.

Yes, I know.


Which of these scenarios is going to end up with a net increase to my contribution to the domestic economy (thus increasing the value of the economy as a whole)?

Here's your problem. No one cares about the economy of a whole. If you are a factory worker in Sheffield then you are probably actually quite hostile to the notion of GDP increasing because that doesn't help you: the money all goes to the top while your life gets worse. Years after the event remainers are still making the "economic benefits" argument which is alienating more people than it wins over.

The challenge for remain is to persuade the working-class that their interests are served by remaining in the EU: that's a tough call after four decades of seeing their productivity increases go straight into executive pockets. And yes, I know, Brexit probably won't help them and may make things worse: these people are desperate, they'd try anything.

The right can plausibly explain that by cutting immigration they will protect the value of worker's labour. It is mostly a fallacious argument, but it does address the actual concerns of workers and the remain campaign didn't: that is why they lost.

[dribbles]

That's the average paid per person, you said that's how much you personally paid. Are you really so out of touch you think every person in the UK pays the same amount of tax or did you not bother trying to understand the article?

It is quite simple. The EU contributions per person is the total sum the country pays into the EU pot divided by the number of its citizens. You are quite right however that in fact it is likely my personal EU contributions are far in excess of £250 a year due to the number of unemployed layabouts who pay nothing. Not that I am whinging about that...

Due to the opaqueness of EU individual tax contributions it is quite impossible to calculate it individually, so some assumptions/averaging must be made. I would be all in favour of the EU sending taxpayers an annual bill of hundreds of pounds/euro for EU services rendered. Imagine how popular the EU would be if all citizens had that land on their doormat every January? They'd all take the 7 euro 3 year deal offered to the British and the EU would cease to exist.

[pathwathal]

also anti social 'socialst' guy, when you use working class you seem to mean white male working class (reactionary) when using cliches to project your own views on the working class.

I'm talking about general trends among the working class. I have no interest in whatever identity politics crap you are trying to introduce to the discussion.