The Brexit aftermath thread

[Skroe]

I mean I hope every person in the UK is angry at this.

The people? I certainly hope they are. The political class has been effectively non-serious about many, many issues going back well over a decade now. The Brexit fiasco is the latest and worst symptom of a larger problem.

It was these people, or their direct predecessors, that engaged in the fiction that was Austerity, for some reason, despite a mountain of data, and enormous suffering.

It was these people who so cut their defense posture to the bone, they built aircraft carriers whose only fighters to fly off of them until the 2020s are US Marines in their visiting F-35B. And they retired ships, aircraft and vehicles with decades of life left to them shortly after modernization. It is so bad the US has been calling up France and Germany for Security concerns before the UK, for a good 6 or 7 years now. The Special Relationship in 2019 is not the Special Relationship of 2001, largely because the UK kind of shot it in the chest for some reason.

It is these people, or their direct predecessors, that held a Scottish referendum that nearly saw the United Kingdom as we know it break up, in no small part because they didn't take it seriously until the 11th hour, when they were bailed out by an ex-Labour PM / Scot himself.

It is these people who broke NATO unanimity on Syrian airstrikes in response to chemical weapons in 2013 because the government couldn't be assed to count how many commitments to a Yea vote they had before calling the meaningful vote.

I was in the UK late last year for a few days. I've gone nearly at least once a year for the past 10 years on business. I've never seen as much trash in the streets, as many poor people, and frankly, the entire joint looking as run down, as I had then.

Beyond Brexit, they need to fix their shit and figure out how they went from the likes of John Major and Tony Blair, to the likes of David Cameron, Theresa May, Ed Milliband and Jeremy-fucking-Corbyn, and everyone they surround themselves with.


If the UK wants to truly say "fuck it" to the rest of the world and their place in it, and become just a larger Lichtenstein before fading into obscurity, they should just drop the shit and tell the rest of us in the Western world. That way they can hard crash out of everything - the EU, NATO, the Special Relationship, global finance - and we'll just eat the cost once. The world needs a serious UK that is a partner to the US and Europe too much for this nonsense they've been engaged in for years now to continue.

What happens during the next financial crisis? Frankly, at this rate, I'd expect Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn to find new and terrifying ways to show the world that they're deeply non-serious people.

[Kronik85]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...KBN1QU0PB?il=0
No tariffs does not mean no checks. Wtf are they smoking in Westminster? Are they playing "Let's flood our market with Chinese products and crash the local industries" again like they did with their steel despite the EU trying to save them from their idiocy? Become the world's premier smuggling institution? The RoI will be forced to have such checks or else they will be fined to oblivion by the rest of the EU.

Like all things Brexit it's an attempt at a fudge to work around an impossible problem. If we don't police our border with the RoI then that takes a lot of pressure off the sectarianism, yeah sure we open ourselves up to WTO trade disputes under discrimination but that's allegedly glacial in pacing (to the point where we could have trade deals in place before the first arbitration is even finished) and still better than sectarian violence.

The funny part is that despite saying "look we will accept smuggling and potential lawsuits to keep the peace in Ireland" the DUP still wouldn't be happy because there would be checks on goods coming into Britain via NI.

More evidence that Brexit is pants on head retarded, costly, incongruous by its own standards and ultimately pointless.

[Crispin]

I honestly do not see the EU agreeing to a delay, without a somewhat serious answer to "So what's your plan then?", extending the current shitshow for another 3 months is not a serious answer, nor is "we'll talk some more with less results!"

At this point a referendum between a hard-brexit or cancelling article 50 seems like the best option. Westminister is far too divided between Hard brexit people - thoose that wants a not that hard brexit - those in between - soft brexit - new referendum - cancel article 50. The next two votes might get a majority, but voting "we dont want a hard brexit and we want an extension" does not mean any of it will become reality.

[Kronik85]

I honestly do not see the EU agreeing to a delay, without a somewhat serious answer to "So what's your plan then?", extending the current shitshow for another 3 months is not a serious answer, nor is "we'll talk some more with less results!"

At this point a referendum between a hard-brexit or cancelling article 50 seems like the best option. Westminister is far too divided between Hard brexit people - thoose that wants a not that hard brexit - those in between - soft brexit - new referendum - cancel article 50. The next two votes might get a majority, but voting "we dont want a hard brexit and we want an extension" does not mean any of it will become reality.

It's accepted by Parliament that we won't just be getting an extension for the sake of extension. Lots of voting this week is going to be about working out a united position. So today is about whether or not Parliament will accept No Deal, it's expected that the result will be to take No Deal off the table as a negotiation tactic.

So let's say that this happens. So Parliament needs a deal or to revoke A50. Ok so what deal then? It's incredibly unlikely that Parliament will demonstrate the common sense needed to realise this but since the EU has said no more negotiation on the WA then that means that May's deal is THE deal. Which then would mean May's deal gets a third roll of the dice or we ask for an extension to have another referendum where the choices are May's deal or No Brexit (because Parliament has decided that No Deal can't be a thing).

This would all of course be the work of a competent Parliament and Government and since we don't have that then fuck knows what will actually happen.

[Kronik85]

It's not just about the RoI. We would have to be very careful about anything imported from the UK to make sure no one is trying to screw with Rules of Origin, something that HAS happened in the UK in the past with Chinese products.

This is a good point but if I'm getting this straight it would only need apply to goods imported directly into NI not the entire UK. There will be checks going over the Irish Sea so if you did want to do what you propose and sell illicit goods into the EU then you need to use a port in NI and then take it over the unsecure border between NI and RoI into the EU.

As to trading agreements taking years this is obvious poppycock, we have David Davis, master negotiator. I'm sure he will get us a trade deal within days, more realistically, hours.

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I just cannot see a Tory government creating a referendum that puts No Deal off the table. It would be electoral disaster for them. I honestly think a three way referendum with preferential voting is a better option.

I did say that I was assuming some degree of consistent logic out of our parliament which we know by now would be a miracle. That is of course assuming today's motion is passed. If it isn't then there is no problem with No Deal being on the ticket.

[Kronik85]

Honestly it's just bound to create an even bigger mess. Any solution will stress business and the economy in NI by creating additional regulatory burden.

Well even Brexiteers have given up trying to say anything positive about Brexit (the most optimistic say that there will be many opportunities post Brexit, which is basically the same as when Littlefinger says that chaos is a ladder in GoT). We are now at the point where we are doing this because offering up self mutilation is considered peak democracy in a mature representative democracy.

[kalworth]

Theresa May, aka Dollar Store Margret Thatcher really screwed the pooch, didn't she?



Really, time to strong arm the fuck out of this sideshow.

She's a nasty little racist woman but given the mathematics in parliament there wasn't and there isn't much alternative to what she did.

While cancelling Brexit is looking like the least worst option, your stupid American pseudo-macho bollocks is out of place here. There will be serious consequences for democracy if the government chooses to invalidate a clear democratic mandate.

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At this point a referendum between a hard-brexit or cancelling article 50 seems like the best option.

If you are going to cancel Brexit do so by act of parliament. That is the only thing that matters legally. A referendum got us into this mess.

Another referendum is a coin-flip. If the public votes for Brexit again we are stuck with the fucking thing for 50 years. At least in a no-deal scenario we can probably crawl back into the EU after a few years when the country's economy is decimated and Brexit's supporters have been throughly discredited by evidence.

I don't get this equation of a second referendum with a rejection of Brexit. It would very likely be an affirmation of Brexit.

[Slant]

It's pretty baffling to me how parliament can say "we want out of the EU" but then vote no to the withdrawel agreement and the next day vote "but not without a deal either". How does that make any sense? It should be yes to no deal tomorrow.

Londo = UK

It makes sense when you close yourself to the possibility that you don't get to rearrange reality to your wishes. See, the UK Parliament to this day believes that it's only arguing with itself. As long as they agree on something, surely that's bound to happen. It's like gravity, right?

That the EU has the last word on a couple of items and, god forbid, dares to have a different opinion on a couple more items? That doesn't register in Westminster. At all, not in the slightest. Every speech contribution, every question, every single goddamn comment when a microphone is shoved into their faces speaks volumes about this simple fact.

[Wezmon]

I don't get this equation of a second referendum with a rejection of Brexit. It would very likely be an affirmation of Brexit.

If it turns into an affirmation of brexit that would be fine, but I believe a lot of yes voters in 2016 genuinely thought we would leave the EU with a great deal and everything would be roses and blue passports. A massive amount would still vote yes, but it wouldn't take many opposed to a hard brexit to swing it back.

As someone said on last page, a 3 way vote with a 2nd preference (so basically if you really want to leave with a deal, but we cant get one, is it still leave or stay) would be the best way forward. And it's not a cancellation of the first vote (and the end of democracy apparently), it's an informed clarification on the result.

I think I might be one of the only people in the country who voted no and would changed to yes (as I now get paid in dollars and a low pound is nice. About as selfish as you can be).

[Slant]

Theresa May, aka Dollar Store Margret Thatcher really screwed the pooch, didn't she?

Europe should refuse to do anything further unless there is another referendum with only the May Deal or cancel Article 50 (Stay in the EU) on it.

Really, time to strong arm the fuck out of this sideshow.

The EU doesn't think strongarming is the right move. See, the main goal of the EU, since it can't outright forbid leaving, is to be the good player. They don't have to do anything, since the UK is inflicting all the damage onto itself. The EU merely has to make sure that EU red lines aren't crossed. And it can do that by simply refusing certain things that the UK can't possibly enforce.

So no, the time's ticking anyway. No need to play the bully. The funny bit is that David Davies or one of the lunatics claimed "the UK has all the cards in their hands", while it was very clear from the beginning that the UK not only doesn't any cards in its hands, it doesn't have them, because the EU has the entire fucking pack and is making the rules of the game they're playing.

[Slant]

Btw, things are getting real now...



This is what it looks like when German bureaucracy has taken over. This is happening all over the country these days, I assume in other nations as well.

A quote from the same reddit:

I'm a brit resident in Spain and am giving it up for residency in Poland. I was over there last week doing paperwork, setting up my company etc. The difference between EU and non EU immigration is huge, even the building is hugely different In warsaw, upstairs is EU, online appointments, friendly staff, downstairs non EU, 100 appointments a day, people outside in the cold queueing at 4am...also paperwork is insane.

If anyone is still asking why being in the EU is a smart idea...

[Crispin]

It's not just about the RoI. We would have to be very careful about anything imported from the UK to make sure no one is trying to screw with Rules of Origin, something that HAS happened in the UK in the past with Chinese products.

As for WTO arbitration, it is not THAT slow. I think the average is about a year and a half. Trade deals take longer than that.

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A short extension is not about a solution. It's about more time to prepare. If May asks for a month or two then the EU would only grant it to give everyone an additional couple of months to prepare. While the budgets have been apprortioned and the plans are in place for a lot of the necessary preparations, implementation is lagging. For one thing, it's not exactly easy to staff the new border checks. Vets don't grow on trees. And physical infrastructure takes times to build.

Not sure what they would prepare? There's no deals to be done in a few months. The borders wont be ready for the shitstorm that'll land with a hard brexit.

Also the UK have had 2 years to prepare, the EU would likely respond in the same manner.

[Kronik85]

The EU doesn't think strongarming is the right move. See, the main goal of the EU, since it can't outright forbid leaving, is to be the good player. They don't have to do anything, since the UK is inflicting all the damage onto itself. The EU merely has to make sure that EU red lines aren't crossed. And it can do that by simply refusing certain things that the UK can't possibly enforce.

So no, the time's ticking anyway. No need to play the bully. The funny bit is that David Davies or one of the lunatics claimed "the UK has all the cards in their hands", while it was very clear from the beginning that the UK not only doesn't any cards in its hands, it doesn't have them, because the EU has the entire fucking pack and is making the rules of the game they're playing.

Actually we started with some cards. Then David Davis gave them all away to the EU in the initial negotiation when he let the EU put the trade negotiations after virtually everything else and thus creating the absolute terror that No Deal inspires. If he hadn't ceded to this then No Deal wouldn't be a problem because we would have a trade deal with the EU ready to go after A50 kicks in.

That's truly how bad David Davis is at negotiation.

[Slant]

Actually we started with some cards. Then David Davis gave them all away to the EU in the initial negotiation when he let the EU put the trade negotiations after virtually everything else and thus creating the absolute terror that No Deal inspires. If he hadn't ceded to this then No Deal wouldn't be a problem because we would have a trade deal with the EU ready to go after A50 kicks in.

That's truly how bad David Davis is at negotiation.

Hmm, I think that was never up to the British in any case. A trade deal isn't negotiated in 2 years. The mistake was that Davies didn't believe the EU. They said, withdraw first so we know what the relationship is, then start trade talks based on that relationship. Which makes sense. Davies wanted to talk trade only, he (and the UK in general) was never interested in actually leaving, to them this was just another "can we redesign our rebate into our personally customized menu please? We'll take the single market, but without immigration, a bit of customary union and a slice of less paying you... sound good?"

That is the actual mistake they made. And the EU saw through that from the start. And put a halt to it. I think that idea was stilborn as soon as someone came up with it. So, blame him for his incompetence and arrogance, but the bit you're describing is probably the one thing he actually didn't have any control over. The EU was prepared to walk out of the room if he insisted on such nonsense right from the start.

[mojojojo202]

snip

The economic problems are stacking up though. There is a real problem with a lack of funding across pretty much every area of British public sector. Brexit will cause it's own problems. Then have to consider that many economists are predicting yet another slowdown in the Western economy and you've got 3 things individually can be dealt with but together will cause havoc.

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It makes sense when you close yourself to the possibility that you don't get to rearrange reality to your wishes. See, the UK Parliament to this day believes that it's only arguing with itself. As long as they agree on something, surely that's bound to happen. It's like gravity, right?

That the EU has the last word on a couple of items and, god forbid, dares to have a different opinion on a couple more items? That doesn't register in Westminster. At all, not in the slightest. Every speech contribution, every question, every single goddamn comment when a microphone is shoved into their faces speaks volumes about this simple fact.

Arrogance and ignorance of anyone else's opinion or even their existence is the defining English characteristic, this is all so predictable...

[Slant]

Beyond that, the EU's soft and measured stance as well as the fairly strong appearance of competence from the commission has significantly increased EU approval and likely shifted some soft eurosceptics to a pro-euro stance. Hard eurosceptics have unfortunately stayed strong and possibly even solidified their base but all of them have taken EU exit off the table. An EU that could be seen as strongarming the UK would have met with less approval and may have shifted soft sceptics to hard sceptics.

Yes, this is also true. The EU has gained more credibility through this than they have lost during the Greek crisis. People see that the EU can actually represent their interests, because for once the EU has done it publically. And... if this was a baseball game, the EU pretty much took the meanest of curveballs and hammered it out of the stadium like there was no tomorrow.

[Crispin]

Not preparations about deals, preparation on keeping on trading and supply chains under WTO rules as well as giving citizens more time for personal preparations and giving further notice.

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Truth be told, A50 had the EU's back on this. But yes, Davis is a muppet.

Well as I've said, the Uk have had years to plan and prepare for it, which will most likely be the EU's answer as well.

The fact that the UK in some crazy dream thought that it would land a great brexit deal, has been so incompetent to not prepare for the worst possible outcome is really not the EU's issue.

The next two votes wont change anything really, the EU doesnt care if the parliment votes against a hard brexit, they botched a deal the day before.

At this point it'll be a hard brexit in 2 weeks or A50 will be cancelled, possibly a 2nd referendum

[Crispin]

Arrogance and ignorance of anyone else's opinion or even their existence is the defining English characteristic, this is all so predictable...

I've gotta say, the childish screams while May is speaking very well reflects this attitude.

In the end, a somewhat amusing parliment which screams like a childrens birthday also acts like it.

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Ehm I am not exactly interested in the UK's preparations, I am talking about the EU's. Are you under the illusion that the EU is happy about its own level of preparedness? It's probably much better than the UK but that doesn't mean it's OK.

The EU already has trade with countries under WTO rules. I'm sure the EU isnt happy about anything regarding brexit, but it would be quite a failure to admit that the EU havent been ready during the last two years either. There's probably some companies who didnt prepare and hoped for some kind of sanity in the UK parliment, but I do not see individual companies requiring months to prepare for this.

[Shalcker]

Yes, this is also true. The EU has gained more credibility through this than they have lost during the Greek crisis. People see that the EU can actually represent their interests, because for once the EU has done it publically. And... if this was a baseball game, the EU pretty much took the meanest of curveballs and hammered it out of the stadium like there was no tomorrow.

It's interesting that ECB refused to release legal opinion it commisioned on legality of Greek Bank closure in 2015...

European citizens cannot be allowed to find out whether the ECB acted legally in closing down Greece’s banks in June 2015. Why? In the wording of the three judges, because such disclosure would affect the ECB’s “space to think in 2015 and also after 2015”. If this sounds like an Orwellian decision, it is because it is an Orwellian decision.

...i'm really not sure if this lack of transparency is improving EU image.

It might make eventual hit to this image even worse.

[mojojojo202]

Again, your issue there is Tory austerity first (and parliamentary incompetence in general), Brexit second. Brexit is definitely a serious crisis but so is a party stripping down the country for parts over a decade.

To be fair my main arguments in the Brexit debate were always
a) The EU isn't the problem, what happens in Westminster is vastly more important, Europe was just an easy scapegoat.
b) The idiots in Westminster were fundamentally not capable of delivering Brexit. It's not just a personal problem either, British politics is set up to make sure stuff like this can't happen, when it did it was inevitably going to cause total chaos.

Brexit's impact is also swelled by its ability to swallow up absolutely every iota of political discourse in the country. It's impossible to talk about anything else. It is, in and of itself a big problem, but it's the way it interacts with every other problem that is where Britain will suffer.