View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #18161
    Quote Originally Posted by Didactic View Post
    58%, if the current figure is to be believed.
    Bollocks. Sample size 1000, probably residents in London. The only party clearly for remain is the Lib Dems. How are they doing in pre EU election polls?

    Don't make me laugh....

  2. #18162
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    And how many support remain? In percentage terms is it still in single figures?
    58%. @Pann posted a poll.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Bollocks. Sample size 1000, probably residents in London. The only party clearly for remain is the Lib Dems. How are they doing in pre EU election polls?

    Don't make me laugh....
    Sample size of 1000 is enough for 1% degree of confidence. I understand that any poll that does not reflect your view of the world is bullshit to you though.

  3. #18163
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler to Baby Sloths View Post
    58%. @Pann posted a poll.

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    Sample size of 1000 is enough for 1% degree of confidence. I understand that any poll that does not reflect your view of the world is bullshit to you though.
    So we can say with 99% confidence it could be wrong? I'd say 99.9999999999999% it is lol Desperate times for you remainers.

  4. #18164
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Hahaha really? The only poll that counts is the one on the day. But if you truly believe that your vision is the future, and I doubt it, you can always put your money where your mouth is, I have...

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...ons-most-seats

    But seriously for you I wouldn't, you'd lose too much money!
    And what were the odds on Remain the day before the referendum? Wasn't it something like 1-12? Sometimes the odds are wrong.

    Anyway, I'm comfortable. Even if you get up to 30%, that still reflects that you don't have a mandate. And you never will. This EU election will send the message, and the 2nd referendum will follow it. After that Brexit will be officially off before you know it. Tick, tock.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Brexophilia: The act of rubbing yourself against dead political ideas for sexual pleasure.

  5. #18165
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Bollocks. Sample size 1000, probably residents in London. The only party clearly for remain is the Lib Dems. How are they doing in pre EU election polls?

    Don't make me laugh....
    Assuming the methodology in selecting the polled samples is sound, a sample size of 1,000 is more than adequate.

    With that said I would be extremely cautious in taking the result of one poll as being indicative of the feeling across the UK. I also find it somewhat worrisome that, even though this poll shows a remain majority, it still shows that the country is deeply divided on Brexit.

  6. #18166
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    So we can say with 99% confidence it could be wrong? I'd say 99.9999999999999% it is lol Desperate times for you remainers.
    No, the poll says that between 57 and 59% would vote Remain, and between 41 and 43% would vote Leave. That's how polling and confidence intervals works.

  7. #18167
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Bollocks. Sample size 1000, probably residents in London. The only party clearly for remain is the Lib Dems. How are they doing in pre EU election polls?

    Don't make me laugh....
    Another thing to add to the list of "things that dribbles doesn't understand how they work". Polling. That list is getting longer by the minute. There really is no beginning to your talents.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Brexophilia: The act of rubbing yourself against dead political ideas for sexual pleasure.

  8. #18168
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    So we can say with 99% confidence it could be wrong? I'd say 99.9999999999999% it is lol Desperate times for you remainers.
    Considering 1000 people is a fairly substantial sample size, it's likely he meant within 1% margin of error rather than 1% chance of being correct.

  9. #18169
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    And what were the odds on Remain the day before the referendum? Wasn't it something like 1-12? Sometimes the odds are wrong.

    Anyway, I'm comfortable. Even if you get up to 30%, that still reflects that you don't have a mandate. And you never will. This EU election will send the message, and the 2nd referendum will follow it. After that Brexit will be officially off before you know it. Tick, tock.
    Wasn't 30% vote share enough to put Theresa May in power? Cheers, you set a low bar....

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Assuming the methodology in selecting the polled samples is sound, a sample size of 1,000 is more than adequate.

    With that said I would be extremely cautious in taking the result of one poll as being indicative of the feeling across the UK. I also find it somewhat worrisome that, even though this poll shows a remain majority, it still shows that the country is deeply divided on Brexit.
    A sample size of 1000 is hardly adequate, especially if in conjunction it was taken in or around the LSE student union bar for example. It's a codswallop poll no more no less.

  10. #18170
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Wasn't 30% vote share enough to put Theresa May in power? Cheers, you set a low bar....
    And another thing for the list of "things that dribbles doesn't understand"....."proportional representation voting". We are used to you showing your ignorance around here dribbles, but not usually with this frequency. Are you off your meds?
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Brexophilia: The act of rubbing yourself against dead political ideas for sexual pleasure.

  11. #18171
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    A sample size of 1000 is hardly adequate, especially if in conjunction it was taken in or around the LSE student union bar for example. It's a codswallop poll no more no less.
    A sample of 1,000 is technically more than adequate. However I would want to see a number of polls with similar results in order to be sure that this is not an outlier or anomaly and I would want to see a much higher majority for remain before proclaiming that remain would be certain to win if another referendum was held.

  12. #18172
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Desperate times for you remainers.
    Is this projection? I think this is projection.
    Often updated... ?

  13. #18173
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    A sample of 1,000 is technically more than adequate. However I would want to see a number of polls with similar results in order to be sure that this is not an outlier or anomaly and I would want to see a much higher majority for remain before proclaiming that remain would be certain to win if another referendum was held.
    This really, ideally you want to see if other polls will replicate the result. Still if there is a series of polls that show a 15%+ margin of victory for Remain, then I think a referendum would for the first time be an actually comfortable option.

  14. #18174
    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post
    Sure. The problem in the UK is that many people are not too happy about their livelihoods, communities and struggle a whole lot for such a rich country. I can understand 50% is pissed off and wants to kick in the balls all the remote powers that don't seem to improve their lifestyle. The EU took the blame, yet again.
    I guess the vast majority of norwegians don't worry as much about making ends meet, or their pensions, or healthcare so they get to be ore philosophical.
    You make it sound like the British are living a Charles Dickens fantasy. That's a ridiculous notion.
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    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
    PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.

  15. #18175
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    I support what the Brexit party stands for, why don't you?
    Ok, getting closer to an answer. What do they stand for?

    I'm not british.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before.

    A bunch of times actually.

  16. #18176
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    Ok, getting closer to an answer. What do they stand for?

    I'm not british.
    Single-Issue party - they want a no-deal brexit, same as UKIP. The main difference is that Brexit members claim that they aren't racist, while UKIP members are happy to show that they are (like that piece of racist neo-nazi BNP shit that goes by the name of Sargon).


    In case anybody was wondering, Labour runs under the banner of the Party of European Socialists in European elections and will thus be campaigning on their manifesto.
    Last edited by Butler to Baby Sloths; 2019-04-19 at 07:53 AM.

  17. #18177
    Quote Originally Posted by starplath View Post
    Charles Dickens was not a fantasy writer, the environments of his book reflect the reality of his era.

    The current divergence between rich and poor is actually much more pronounced than in Dickens time.
    Ok, so the poor live in third world country conditions, is that it?
    Users with <20 posts and ignored shitposters are automatically invisible. Find out how to do that here and help clean up MMO-OT!
    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
    PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.

  18. #18178
    Quote Originally Posted by starplath View Post
    The most plausible explanation for this is that there are a small but significant % of voters who just don't trust pollsters and won't speak to them at all seeing them as another manifestation of authority. These people hold extreme anti-authoritarian opinions by the general standards of British society and did not vote until very recently, though they are not tied to party ideology strongly.
    Here is the thing. Unless the pollsters are incompetent, you will be seeing weighted result to account for observed effects that bias sampling.

  19. #18179
    Quote Originally Posted by starplath View Post
    It is a lot more complicated than that. The polls mostly agreed with each other in 2015 and 2017 and got it spectacularly wrong. The outliers (at least in one direction) were actually correct.

    The most plausible explanation for this is that there are a small but significant % of voters who just don't trust pollsters and won't speak to them at all seeing them as another manifestation of authority. These people hold extreme anti-authoritarian opinions by the general standards of British society and did not vote until very recently, though they are not tied to party ideology strongly.

    In 2015 this group gave the Tories a better result than expected, probably because of its anti-immigrant policies. In 2017 this group caused Corbyn to get a much better result than had widely been predicted. This only makes sense in that these people reflexively vote against the establishment. This happens abroad also. It is nothing to do with actual policy: Trump is a plutocrat but managed to dupe these people into voting for him. Macron is essentially a Blairite centrist but styled himself as an anti-establishment rebel and also picked up this vote.

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    Charles Dickens was not a fantasy writer, the environments of his book reflect the reality of his era.

    The current divergence between rich and poor is actually much more pronounced than in Dickens time.
    Didn't help that Macron opponent was someone unpalatable to anyone in France with brain cells. Given how France using a tiered election system and does a runoff if no one gets above 50 percent.

  20. #18180
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Ok, so the poor live in third world country conditions, is that it?
    Not where im from tbh, but have you seen social housing in the UK slant? it makes you shiver like mad. it looks third world.
    ''With this attack, we have no choice but to protect our kind by unleashing our almighty weapon upon them. Summoning the Apocalypse'' - Stellaris Apocalypse trailer.

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