The Brexit aftermath thread

[kaid]

If the backstop is dead, does that mean the UK is erecting a border with Ireland or are you taking back control by not controlling your only land border?

That stance does seem to be what that outcome would entail and from there you have basically two options. NI chooses to reunify with ireland and you maybe get some version of the troubles pop up or you put up a hard barrier and for sure get the troubles again.

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To reiterate on what @Pann says, there is no ruling that expressly requires a border. What is needed is a comprehensive method of tariff collection. Of course we don't really have such a method beyond an enforced border but in legal terms if alternative arrangements could be made that would satisfy all stakeholders it would be OK.
Also the WTO does not have "laws" it's not a legal body. It has rules.

Ah yes option three turn NI into a gigantic smuggling location where you can freely bypass any custom/immigration laws. The problem for even this option is the DUP does not seem very in favor of it and if the torys lose them any no confidence measure likely passes easily and that just makes this mess even messier.

[Pann]

Not true. There are still rules to follow. If you don't follow WTO rules you're going to be going rogue on WTO which basically is a really bad idea if you're trying to get any trade agreements with anyone at all.

What do you think I have written that is not true? I am not sure why you've written that there a rules that must be followed when trading on WTO terms as I have not stated otherwise in fact I explained some of them to you earlier.

At present there have been 153 cases lodged in the WTO where the US is a respondent are they going rogue on the WTO? What about the EU with their 85?

[dribbles]

Lab held Peterborough and they had a much slimmer majority so it is entirely conceivable that the Cons will hold Brecon and Radnorshire. It is worth noting that Brecon and Radnorshire only marginally voted to leave (51.86% Leave to 48.14% Remain) so I don't think that the Brexit Party would be likely to be elected and their running may result in the opposite to your desired outcome by splitting the Tory vote and letting the LDs in by the back door.

The Labour result in Peterborough might have been different if anyone knew what their position on brexit was. They cannot go into a General Election sitting on the fence as they did there and still do today. Does the party come out clearly for a second referendum and campaign for remain in that? If so they disenfranchise 5 million Labour leave voters, some of whom would have been in Peterborough, but keep their urban supporters happy.

I agree the Brexit party may not win Brecon but nevertheless full pressure is still being applied to both Labour and Tory parties. The only way to neutralise the BXP in a future general election for both Labour and Conservatives is for us to Brexit by October 31st.

For this reason alone I think we will leave then as a GE is coming sooner rather than later. Especially as Corbyn is rumoured to be going for a vote of no confidence within days of Boris's anointment towards the end of July.

As for this ongoing backstop nonsense it is quite clear where the position of the Tory party, who Boris will owe his PMship to, lies.



No deal. No backstop. No problem.

[Edge-]

No deal. No backstop. No problem.

Ah yes, I'm sure this approach is the wisest course of action for any major move. Who needs plans or preparation when you can just -

[Pann]

Are wheels coming off of BoJo's bid to be PM already?

https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/statu...31526844506112

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...P=share_btn_tw

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For this reason alone I think we will leave then as a GE is coming sooner rather than later. Especially as Corbyn is rumoured to be going for a vote of no confidence within days of Boris's anointment towards the end of July.

I think a second referendum is more likely than a GE in part because Andrew Neil said so a while back and he knows a lot more than me and because there is no obvious advantage to either of the main parties to call one.

[Pann]

Ultimately if it comes to a point where the Tories have to choose between a GE and a referendum, a GE would likely be a catastrophe for them. A referendum they might be able to spin (and if Brexit wins again, they are off the hook because the parliament will just have to give way).

I am not sure if a GE would catastrophic for the Cons, they have been in power for nearly a decade and polls tend to be unkind in those situations and FPTP tends to be kinder to the main two than the smaller parties, with that said I think they would lose their grip on being in government (although it is important to remember than in the event of a hung parliament they would be entitled, as the party in power, to try to form a coalition or govern as a minority government).

If a 2nd ref happens the blame will be placed firmly on parliament.

[dribbles]

I think a second referendum is more likely than a GE in part because Andrew Neil said so a while back and he knows a lot more than me and because there is no obvious advantage to either of the main parties to call one.

I don't see a second referendum that ends in any good way other than for the BXP. And again the only person who can instigate that is or will be Boris, if/as PM, by writing a letter to the EU requesting another Brexit extension beyond October. Which may or may not be granted...

You might be right, but more likely as Ken Clarke and Grieve have declared they will do anything to stop a no deal Brexit, including bringing down the government, is a GE. How, in the very limited time left if you include 2 months of MP's summer jollies coming soon, do we end up at a second referendum before October?

A second referendum is stoppable by Boris, a general election is not. Or perhaps they will become one and the same if Corbyn can bring himself to support remain.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

I don't see a second referendum that ends in any good way other than for the BXP. And again the only person who can instigate that is or will be Boris, if/as PM, by writing a letter to the EU requesting another Brexit extension beyond October. Which may or may not be granted...

The letter has to be written by a government representative that was empowered to do so by Parliament. I don't think it absolutely has to be the PM.

[Twdft]

No deal. No backstop. No problem.

Also: either hard border through Ireland or Northern Ireland leaves the UK. Which of those do you prefer?

[Pann]

I don't see a second referendum that ends in any good way other than for the BXP. And again the only person who can instigate that is or will be Boris, if/as PM, by writing a letter to the EU requesting another Brexit extension beyond October. Which may or may not be granted...

You might be right, but more likely as Ken Clarke and Grieve have declared they will do anything to stop a no deal Brexit, including bringing down the government, is a GE. How, in the very limited time left if you include 2 months of MP's summer jollies coming soon, do we end up at a second referendum before October?

A second referendum is stoppable by Boris, a general election is not. Or perhaps they will become one and the same if Corbyn can bring himself to support remain.

Parliament has to break the deadlock somehow and as I see it there is nothing much to be gained and lots to lose (especially for the Tories) by holding a GE. A GE might shift the numbers around a bit but we are still likely to be in a situation where Parliament doesn't like the deal on offer, doesn't want no-deal and doesn't want to cancel Brexit add in the fact that Cons are polling poorly and the most likely outcome will be a hung parliament therefore, barring something catastrophic, I just don't see a GE happening. Unless Parliament can somehow find agreement in the next few weeks how to proceed I suspect the only way forward will be to hold another ref.

I don't think it is any secret that the EU would be happy to offer an extension for another ref. or a GE so I do not see that being an issue.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Also: either hard border through Ireland or Northern Ireland leaves the UK. Which of those do you prefer?

I can't speak for Dribbles, but the hardcore Brexiteers don't care about the consequences of either. Sadly, that's the whole point: all they are concerned about is England exiting the EU. The financial, political, social cost / fallout is unimportant to them.

[Mayhem]

At present there have been 153 cases lodged in the WTO where the US is a respondent are they going rogue on the WTO? What about the EU with their 85?

Could you maybe bring up a country in comparison that is somewhat equal in weight and impact?

[ranzino]

The letter has to be written by a government representative that was empowered to do so by Parliament. I don't think it absolutely has to be the PM.

ok, it was PM May, who signed the letter of invocation. IMHO it is good manners to do such important stuff yourself instead of delegating.

[draykorinee]

I can't speak for Dribbles, but the hardcore Brexiteers don't care about the consequences of either. Sadly, that's the whole point: all they are concerned about is England exiting the EU. The financial, political, social cost / fallout is unimportant to them.

This is quite correct.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

ok, it was PM May, who signed the letter of invocation. IMHO it is good manners to do such important stuff yourself instead of delegating.

I'm thinking more of the scenario if Boris refused to write the letter, then Parliament could enable somebody else to do so.

[ranzino]

I'm thinking more of the scenario if Boris refused to write the letter, then Parliament could enable somebody else to do so.

unless house of commons is able to order the government, most notable the PM of the day, under threat of ~10 years in prison for contempt to do so ?
it is also a sign of "no confidence" and thus a perfect reason for GE, if commons would have to order the gov around. means in the end you will likely have to kill BoJo's premiership as soon recess is finished or even call Commons back to trigger revocation etc., leading to GE.

[Noradin]

Farage at the negotiating table when he wants a no-deal Brexit?

And as a MEP he would have a massie conflict of interest.
He'd have to represent the EU, not the UK, but maybe that is their plan?
Farage claiming to be there to negotiate on the EU'S behalf?

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So long as the UK refuses to accept things such as the backstop, those negotiations aren't going to lead anywhere.

They cannot, even.
If the UK breaks an international treaty like the Good Friday Agreement then the EU is legally prohibited from making any deals with the UK while the UK is in violation.

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What's the point of your post? It has nothing do with anything I have written.

The same would probably true for any post with logic in it.

[dribbles]

Parliament has to break the deadlock somehow and as I see it there is nothing much to be gained and lots to lose (especially for the Tories) by holding a GE. A GE might shift the numbers around a bit but we are still likely to be in a situation where Parliament doesn't like the deal on offer, doesn't want no-deal and doesn't want to cancel Brexit add in the fact that Cons are polling poorly and the most likely outcome will be a hung parliament therefore, barring something catastrophic, I just don't see a GE happening. Unless Parliament can somehow find agreement in the next few weeks how to proceed I suspect the only way forward will be to hold another ref.

I don't think it is any secret that the EU would be happy to offer an extension for another ref. or a GE so I do not see that being an issue.

As I was saying Dominic Grieve and his merry men do want an election if Boris sticks to his out at all costs by Oct 31st and it is in his power to deliver that...

Dominic Grieve effectively saying Tory MPs will prevent Boris Johnson commanding a majority in the Commons and that the Queen will have to call on someone else

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/...26078310178816

Dominic Grieve told the BBC that Tory MPs will prevent Boris Johnson commanding a majority in the Commons due to his no-deal Brexit plans.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...Dominic-Grieve

So I'm leaning towards a GE, which raises the question if parliament will look the same after or not. Again Dominic Grieve provides the answer as his association hands him a P45 the minute the next general election is called and a brexiteer candidate replaces him.

[Pann]

As I was saying Dominic Grieve and his merry men do want an election if Boris sticks to his out at all costs by Oct 31st and it is in his power to deliver that...

Dominic Grieve effectively saying Tory MPs will prevent Boris Johnson commanding a majority in the Commons and that the Queen will have to call on someone else

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/...26078310178816

Dominic Grieve told the BBC that Tory MPs will prevent Boris Johnson commanding a majority in the Commons due to his no-deal Brexit plans.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...Dominic-Grieve

So I'm leaning towards a GE, which raises the question if parliament will look the same after or not. Again Dominic Grieve provides the answer as his association hands him a P45 the minute the next general election is called and a brexiteer candidate replaces him.

I may be wrong but the impression I got from Grieve was that he would vote against the government in a confidence motion if the government tried to push through a no-deal Brexit and that this was very much the last resort - the nuclear option - so to speak.

The last I heard from Johnson, when he is not dodging questions as to why the old bill were called out, is that he will get a deal with the EU (which for all intents and purposes looks like May's deal but is not May's deal), in which case there would be no need for Grieve to back a confidence motion.

Based on the polls it is likely that both the Cons and Lab would lose seats meaning that neither would be able to form a majority government without a coalition. The Brexit party might pick up a few seats but I would guess that the majority of them would come at the expense of the Cons which would not solve your issue and I doubt that they would get enough seats to turn the tide to a full on no-deal Brexit.

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This is a very good article on the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit and what it could mean to the UK.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...ikely-outcome/

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And on a lighter note

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQSbav9GFfI

[dribbles]

Good job I took my EU toilet paper avatar down isn't it eurochums? They were planning to lock me up!

Damaging the “the symbols of the European Union” could result in a fine or a custodial term of up to three years under new laws proposed in Germany.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/201...rning-eu-flag/

I can't think why the UK voted to leave...