View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #19241
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Why would there be a GE?
    Boris Johnson won't have a majority in parliament and will lose a vote of confidence - the government will fall.

    But not before October 31st and that beautiful no deal deadline.

    Tick Tock...

  2. #19242
    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    in the scenario tory party elects a PM who tries no deal:
    1) there's no majority in HOC for no deal
    2) despite being the default, a no deal enabling PM would see revolts by HOC
    3) VONC called, government loses. Triggers a GE.
    Why would the government lose the Vote of No Confidence? Why do you think DUP and Tory Remainers would vote against the government then, when they never have so far, only to lead to further uncertainty and them losing their seats? It would have made some sense for Tory Remainers if Change UK was a success and they could have a political career there but it is largely a failure. They have no reason to commit political suicide.

  3. #19243
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Why would the government lose the Vote of No Confidence? Why do you think DUP and Tory Remainers would vote against the government then, when they never have so far, only to lead to further uncertainty and them losing their seats? It would have made some sense for Tory Remainers if Change UK was a success and they could have a political career there but it is largely a failure. They have no reason to commit political suicide.
    dominic grieve (tory MP) last night on newsnight said in the event that the only way of stopping no deal was to vote against the government in a VONC, he would do so. he said there are 30 to 35 other MPs who feel the same way.

  4. #19244
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Why would the government lose the Vote of No Confidence? Why do you think DUP and Tory Remainers would vote against the government then, when they never have so far, only to lead to further uncertainty and them losing their seats? It would have made some sense for Tory Remainers if Change UK was a success and they could have a political career there but it is largely a failure. They have no reason to commit political suicide.
    Because some of them recognize higher priorities (like what is best for the country) above their own political survival.

    The DUP will also not back a Government pushing a no deal brexit that forces a hard border (and at some point it will become obvious even to them that one leads inevitably to the other).
    Last edited by Dizzeeyooo; 2019-05-24 at 09:55 AM.

  5. #19245
    Quote Originally Posted by Dizzeeyooo View Post
    Because some of them recognize higher priorities (like what is best for the country) above their own political survival.

    The DUP will also not back a Government pushing a no deal brexit that forces a hard border (and at some point it will become obvious even to them that one leads inevitably to the other).
    Hmm. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

  6. #19246
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Why would the government lose the Vote of No Confidence? Why do you think DUP and Tory Remainers would vote against the government then, when they never have so far, only to lead to further uncertainty and them losing their seats? It would have made some sense for Tory Remainers if Change UK was a success and they could have a political career there but it is largely a failure. They have no reason to commit political suicide.
    I think this is hitting upon what would need to happen in order for the Govt to fall via VONC. The next PM being so toxic to "centrist" Conservatives that they up sticks and go to Change UK (or the Lib Dems). Unless that happens though, then this discussion is fantasy.

  7. #19247
    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    in the scenario tory party elects a PM who tries no deal:
    1) there's no majority in HOC for no deal
    2) despite being the default, a no deal enabling PM would see revolts by HOC
    3) VONC called, government loses. Triggers a GE.

    in the scenario tory party elects a PM who tries soft brexit:
    1) parliamentary arithmetic against them: DUP/ERG always voting against government
    2) paralysis as we encounter 31st october
    3) this PM doesn't want no deal, will move towards GE/2nd referendum
    4) no majority in HOC for 2nd referendum at the moment
    5) final result is calling a GE

    genuinely, i can't see how this resolves without a GE or, at the very least, a second referendum. either result is fine for me. i'll vote remain in a second referendum, and in a GE we'll have corbyn as PM.



    eu elections are irrelevant.
    You lot need to stop thinking a GE is a fix for anything. It's not.
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  8. #19248
    The Unstoppable Force Skroe's Avatar
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    LOL thus ends the glorious reign of Theresa May, who turned Brexit from a tragedy into a true shitshow.
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  9. #19249
    Quote Originally Posted by Kronik85 View Post
    I think this is hitting upon what would need to happen in order for the Govt to fall via VONC. The next PM being so toxic to "centrist" Conservatives that they up sticks and go to Change UK (or the Lib Dems). Unless that happens though, then this discussion is fantasy.
    I mean maybe I am just burned out because I grew up in a country with politicians that have no principles and only care for securing their seat. So this is what I expect. Someone who stands against his own party needs to have an exit plan. And right now, because of FPTP, no exit plan exists. There is no home for Tory Remainers that choose to leave the party. Change UK seems like a failure. I am unsure they would be welcome among Lib Dems. Also the results of a GE would probably be quite chaotic, with how FPTP would interact in a system when there will be now multiple parties with quite smaller margins than they used to have.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    You lot need to stop thinking a GE is a fix for anything. It's not.
    I think their belief is that a GE would lead to a referendum were Revoke would win so they can Remain. Which WOULD be a solution. Labour will be forced into a coalition since while they likely will win, they will be far short of a majority and the price extracted for that coalition or supply of votes will be a referendum with remain as an option.

  10. #19250
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I mean maybe I am just burned out because I grew up in a country with politicians that have no principles and only care for securing their seat. So this is what I expect. Someone who stands against his own party needs to have an exit plan. And right now, because of FPTP, no exit plan exists. There is no home for Tory Remainers that choose to leave the party. Change UK seems like a failure. I am unsure they would be welcome among Lib Dems. Also the results of a GE would probably be quite chaotic, with how FPTP would interact in a system when there will be now multiple parties with quite smaller margins than they used to have.
    We are already here tbh. The next Govt in all likelihood is going to be a coalition, we just have to hope that they set their price to include genuine electoral reform and not something like AV+. FPTP no longer works in British politics and most crucially it isn't really working for the 2 major ones either.

  11. #19251
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I think their belief is that a GE would lead to a referendum were Revoke would win so they can Remain. Which WOULD be a solution. Labour will be forced into a coalition since while they likely will win, they will be far short of a majority and the price extracted for that coalition or supply of votes will be a referendum with remain as an option.
    I don't know man. I've adjusted my thinking. My current theory is that right now, whatever is the most stupid decision, the British as a collective will take that one. If they had the choice of running headfirst into a wall or through the open door, they would get naked, throw themselves into a pile of shit and jump out the window to run around on the street screaming HAHA! I GOT YOU WANKERS! at the top of their lung.

    And that's the sober version.

    I have no faith in that country left whatsoever.
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    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
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  12. #19252
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    LOL thus ends the glorious reign of Theresa May, who turned Brexit from a tragedy into a true shitshow.
    What did you expect, she was a remainer? If only she had been a true brexiteer...In other good news President Trump and future PM Farage can now dine with the Queen in a few days time unopposed.

    Trump ‘wants his pal Nigel Farage to join State banquet’ with the Queen

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/910657...rump-uk-visit/

    Happy days!

  13. #19253
    The Unstoppable Force Skroe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    I don't know man. I've adjusted my thinking. My current theory is that right now, whatever is the most stupid decision, the British as a collective will take that one. If they had the choice of running headfirst into a wall or through the open door, they would get naked, throw themselves into a pile of shit and jump out the window to run around on the street screaming HAHA! I GOT YOU WANKERS! at the top of their lung.

    And that's the sober version.

    I have no faith in that country left whatsoever.
    I'm gonna miss the ongoing saga of Theresa May's latest Brexit Schemes. She never failed in finding a way to make her fucking "deals" dumber and dumber. It was frankenstein's monster she started grafting animal parts on because she didn't know wtf else to do.

    Maybe they'll get the true dumbest Prime Minister ever, David Cameron, to come clean up the mess he made. Wouldn't that be something. Maybe he'll give the Scottish another referendum too.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    What did you expect, she was a remainer? If only she had been a true brexiteer...In other good news President Trump and future PM Farage can now dine with the Queen in a few days time unopposed.

    Trump ‘wants his pal Nigel Farage to join State banquet’ with the Queen

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/910657...rump-uk-visit/

    Happy days!
    You folks decide to cut the almighty NHS to fund the 50% increase in defense spending you'll need post-Brexit to offset the loss of global influence/power?

    Pfft. The UK is a third rate ally to the United States. It's savaged it's military forces in the last decade. It's savaged the foreign office. It's entirely abandoned the front on crucial multilateral problems.

    But hell, you people want to turn Great Britain into Little England so bad... don't let us stop you. Cameron and May already illustrated how ready they were to prostitute the remnant of the Empire that the Sun Never Set On (until it did) out to China.

    I actually feel bad for the Queen. That she lived this long to see The UK so reduced.

    The EU was the last path to relevance for the UK. Damn shame.
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  14. #19254

  15. #19255
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    You folks decide to cut the almighty NHS to fund the 50% increase in defense spending you'll need post-Brexit to offset the loss of global influence/power?

    Pfft. The UK is a third rate ally to the United States. It's savaged it's military forces in the last decade. It's savaged the foreign office. It's entirely abandoned the front on crucial multilateral problems.

    But hell, you people want to turn Great Britain into Little England so bad... don't let us stop you. Cameron and May already illustrated how ready they were to prostitute the remnant of the Empire that the Sun Never Set On (until it did) out to China.

    I actually feel bad for the Queen. That she lived this long to see The UK so reduced.

    The EU was the last path to relevance for the UK. Damn shame.
    Hahaha the exact opposite in fact. One thing Theresa did do was promise an extra 384 million a week to the NHS, beating the battle bus slogan, by 2023. Again you can thank brexiteers for pushing her in that direction to begin with...Next we will move on defense spending as your linked article confirms...

    You know Trump coming to dinner with our Queen gives us all an idea of how the olde allies and its people must have felt as Americans rode to our rescue once before in the 1940's to help us deal with the European problem at that time.

    Fitting it coincides with the 75th D-Day commemorations, don't you think?

    I would say the UK/US alliance is as strong as ever and unbreakable at this moment, thanks to your leader and our Nigel.

    The Queen must be very proud of how loyal her colonials are in the 21st C at her country's time of need.

  16. #19256
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Hahaha the exact opposite in fact. One thing Theresa did do was promise an extra 384 million a week to the NHS, beating the battle bus slogan, by 2023. Again you can thank brexiteers for pushing her in that direction to begin with...Next we will move on defense spending as your linked article confirms...

    You know Trump coming to dinner with our Queen gives us all an idea of how the olde allies and its people must have felt as Americans rode to our rescue once before in the 1940's to help us deal with the European problem at that time.

    Fitting it coincides with the 75th D-Day commemorations, don't you think?

    I would say the UK/US alliance is as strong as ever and unbreakable at this moment, thanks to your leader and our Nigel.

    The Queen must be very proud of how loyal her colonials are in the 21st C at her country's time of need.
    References to WW2 check, references to the British Empire check, you went full retard. Little England is an absolute laughing stock atm and will get squeezed between the far more powerful US, EU and China. You'll be as insignificant in comparison as Turkey.

  17. #19257
    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    Little England is an absolute laughing stock atm and will get squeezed between the far more powerful US, EU and China. You'll be as insignificant in comparison as Turkey.
    That's a little daring. Standalone UK will of course be less important than the EU, but they are certainly not on the level of Turkey. They have nuclear weapons for god's sake. Their GDP is almost 3x that of Turkey. Etc.

  18. #19258
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    And honestly with her imo goes any chance for a deal unless the government falls, which I just don't see happening.
    So no-deal is much more likely now. Hard crash it is.

    Let us see how many companies will jump ship and leave the u.k lol

  19. #19259
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Hahaha the exact opposite in fact. One thing Theresa did do was promise an extra 384 million a week to the NHS, beating the battle bus slogan, by 2023. Again you can thank brexiteers for pushing her in that direction to begin with...Next we will move on defense spending as your linked article confirms...

    You know Trump coming to dinner with our Queen gives us all an idea of how the olde allies and its people must have felt as Americans rode to our rescue once before in the 1940's to help us deal with the European problem at that time.

    Fitting it coincides with the 75th D-Day commemorations, don't you think?

    I would say the UK/US alliance is as strong as ever and unbreakable at this moment, thanks to your leader and our Nigel.

    The Queen must be very proud of how loyal her colonials are in the 21st C at her country's time of need.
    Truly the words of a moderate. Totally not the delusions of an extreme Brexiteer.

    You are a joke, sir. I hope an actual veteran gives you a slap, should one somehow read this.
    Often updated... ?

  20. #19260
    The Unstoppable Force Skroe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Hahaha the exact opposite in fact. One thing Theresa did do was promise an extra 384 million a week to the NHS, beating the battle bus slogan, by 2023. Again you can thank brexiteers for pushing her in that direction to begin with...Next we will move on defense spending as your linked article confirms...
    Which is why I brought it up. The UK cannot afford to keep spending on the NHS and increasing defense spending (which it hasn't done meaningfully in years, much less +50%) without significantly raising taxes to pay for it. Which the UK won't do.

    In fact, that's the entire point of my article (which you didn't read). The UK wants to increase its defense spending... a little bit. But the offset from the lost of international standing by exiting the EU can only be achieved by standing up the British Armed Forces in a way they haven't been since the Early 1990s.

    How likely is that? I put somewhere around zero. In fact, I and most observers of the UK's long term disengagement from all things international bet the opposite - that the UK will cut its armed forces and foreign office even more, in order to make up for shortfalls elsewhere.

    This is why Brexit has been so insane from the get go. The UK plainly is not prepared to do what is necessary to cover for what it loses by being out of the EU. But it does it anyway. Why are you people choosing suicide? Because that's what it looks like. It looks like you're just calling it quits on everything.


    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    You know Trump coming to dinner with our Queen gives us all an idea of how the olde allies and its people must have felt as Americans rode to our rescue once before in the 1940's to help us deal with the European problem at that time.
    The UK's been an ally in name only for years now. That's the sad truth. It's not 2003 and the international position of the UK in 2019 is a very far cry from the Bush-Blair era. Your response to the Financial Crisis was austerity. You cut defense. You cut the foreign office. You cut foreign aid. You cut diplomats. You cut troops. You cut and cut and cut. This forced the US to find other partners: the French and Germans.

    The British retreat started well in advance of Brexit. I'd actually point the finger at the post-Iraq War navel gazing where you people spent a solid decade investigating the investigations, and having more inquiries than there were battles. Your national response to something you all collectively felt really bad over was to sell the house and retire to the country, so to speak. Brexit is the miserable end of that process in a sense. You sold your country cottage and decided to become hermits living in caves.





    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Fitting it coincides with the 75th D-Day commemorations, don't you think?
    1945 was a different world, of less and less relevance every year.

    The British Empire in 1945 was the third superpower in the world, and the second Superpower of the west. Bankrupt, but mighty. Decolonization cut it down to size, but the UK went well beyond that since 1992.

    This is not a lament for empire. Rather, it is a matching of word to deed. If the UK wants to be international influential, it has to do certain things - none of which it is actually doing. If it wants to be a bunch of hermits living in caves... well carry on.


    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    I would say the UK/US alliance is as strong as ever and unbreakable at this moment, thanks to your leader and our Nigel.
    "Strong as ever". LOL. The US Marines are flying their own F-35Bs off of YOUR Aircraft carrier because you people retired your Harriers years too early, and didn't want to pay enough money to buy your own F-35Bs yet.

    That's the kind of crap that's seen the US seek alternative partners since you ran out of bombs and missiles over Libya back in 2011.


    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    The Queen must be very proud of how loyal her colonials are in the 21st C at her country's time of need.
    Not likely, but really, who cares. It's been a decade and a half since the words "Special Relationship" was uttered with any kind of frequency and seriousness on this side of the Atlantic.

    If we need to sort some minor border dispute, the State Department can call up Foreign Office. Otherwise, the UK isn't in the big leagues anymore.
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