The Brexit aftermath thread

[Kallisto]

Parliament will sit on Saturday for the first time in nearly 40 years.

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Lib Dems were basically the king makers, they had the numbers to create a majority for either party. If they didn't, whoever was the largest party regardless would have tried to make a minority government, not necessarily call another election. Even in a coalition with the Tories, they could have done a lot more about austerity, but they just went all in with it.

There was not enough numbers for a labour/Lib Dem coalition. They still would have been below conservatives who would have just made deals with the unionist parties and got an effective majority or close enough.

SNP back then were considered just as bad a party as Sinn Fein by many (stupidly) and putting them in a coalition would have destroyed Labour worse than what happened anyway. The only working gov was Tory/LD.

[Dizzeeyooo]

Honestly one thing I always considered would be a "solution" for May to her DUP problem would have been to field a motion to have a plebiscite in NI on whether they would be willing to accept NI remaining in the Single Market.

The DUP won't accept something that they know they will lose, as demonstrated by their reaction to the suggestion of a Stormont double majority lock on the NI backstop.

Sammy Wilson says 'double majority' requirement of new exit mechanism will trap NI in customs union

'The double majority arrangement is designed to ensure we can never get out of customs union, given all the other parties are supportive of staying in the EU'

Almost funny when you think about what he is actually saying

Lib Dems were basically the king makers

Completely untrue, but you do you.

[Dizzeeyooo]

Ofc they would not accept it but I think that Remainers would vote for it.

"Remainers" voted against her deal because its a shit deal and inferior to remaining in the EU, not because of the backstop.

[Gorsameth]

Ofc they would not accept it but I think that Remainers would vote for it.

Leaving but remaining in the Customs union is taxation without representation. Remainers won't accept it.

[Dizzeeyooo]

First, I was not talking about May's deal, I was talking about the deal the EU proposed (NI-only backstop).

Even less support for this with Cons (because anything that is not no deal = treason), and equal (v low) levels of support for this in Labour/Lib/SNP/others (because its a shit deal based on shitty UK red lines).

And second, I did not suggest that the Remainers should back the deal itself, just that the issue of whether NI staying in the Single Market is acceptable be placed to the people of Northern Ireland for a vote. There should be support for that at least.

What does that fix? You then have Scotland and London immediately asking why they can't have the same arrangement, for a start.

[Jessicka]

There was not enough numbers for a labour/Lib Dem coalition. They still would have been below conservatives who would have just made deals with the unionist parties and got an effective majority or close enough.

SNP back then were considered just as bad a party as Sinn Fein by many (stupidly) and putting them in a coalition would have destroyed Labour worse than what happened anyway. The only working gov was Tory/LD.

I stand corrected on the numbers, but a minority Lib Dem-Labour coalition still wouldn't have left the Tories able to build a majority. Even if the SNP, Plaid, Greens, didn't join the coalition officially, they still wouldn't have voted with the Tories, so the Tories still wouldn't have had a majority over them.

The DUP won't accept something that they know they will lose, as demonstrated by their reaction to the suggestion of a Stormont double majority lock on the NI backstop.

What the DUP want has been irrelevant since Boris kicked 20 Tories out of his own party, and a bunch of them joined the Lib Dems.

Completely untrue, but you do you.

Only way the Tories could have held a majority over Labour and the rest of the opposition parties. Yes they were.

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What does that fix? You then have Scotland and London immediately asking why they can't have the same arrangement, for a start.

And Manchester, Liverpool, the actual Welsh population of Wales...

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The way out of this is clear. a General Election and Referendum. Boris will send his letter next week, under the watchful gaze of the Supreme Court, and that is what will happen.

The Conservatives are already deciding on their post-extension campaign, so no deal on 31st is already off the table.

[Pann]

Honestly one thing I always considered would be a "solution" for May to her DUP problem would have been to field a motion to have a plebiscite in NI on whether they would be willing to accept NI remaining in the Single Market.

It would have been difficult to square that with the GFA.

[Gorsameth]

The way out of this is clear. a General Election and Referendum. Boris will send his letter next week, under the watchful gaze of the Supreme Court, and that is what will happen.

The Conservatives are already deciding on their post-extension campaign, so no deal on 31st is already off the table.

Right, completely off the table. Never happening.

So what happens when the EU refuses yet another extension and your left with your dick in your hand on October 28th? (somewhat random date because the EU needs time to meet and decide).
And incase your answer is 'revoke art 50'. I wouldn't bet money on that passing Parliament.

[Wezmon]

So what happens when the EU refuses yet another extension and your left with your dick in your hand on October 28th? (somewhat random date because the EU needs time to meet and decide).
And incase your answer is 'revoke art 50'. I wouldn't bet money on that passing Parliament.

If I were the EU I'd agree only to an extension if the UK was to have a referendum with a straight 2 way; revoke or no deal.

[Jessicka]

The question is, what is the strategy for the Election. Lab attacking Lib Dems in order to keep the vote from being split seems doomed to failure. Can the same be said if BoJo calls for BXP voters to support Tories or face a second referendum if Lab gets a majority?

If Tories stand on a Leave means Leave, potential no-deal stance, I think that would be catastrophic for them. They've already proven that they can't get a deal, and there is absolutely no appetite anywhere for no-deal. They would at least have to peddle a no-deal or no-brexit referendum. And worryingly, a lot of people would go for that.

[caervek]

Even with the Germans being unable to invade the British Isles, it's not like the Brits were in a position to invade the continent in turn. I recall reading that the main reason Churchill ultimately agreed to Operation Overlord was because the Brits were getting worried that the US would get tired of the Brits dragging their feet about an invasion of the continent and pull out of Europe to focus on the Pacific.

You read nonsense, the main reason for operation Overlord was because we (UK and USA) realised the USSR had Germany defeated and we were worried that they weren't going to stop at Berlin (or even the French border). We invaded France to save it from Soviet occupation not Germany occupation.

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Had the Lib Dems allied with Labour, or just acted independently, they could have prevented austerity as the Tories were nowhere near a majority.

It's worth remembering that a Labour lead coalition with the Lib Dems was the first option explored after the 2010 election however Labour turned down the idea (understandable in hindsight as then they would have taken the hit for the austerity/economy and we would still have had a Tory government in 2015) resulting in the Lib Dems opting for the second choice coalition with the Torys.

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Without America, Britain would have gotten starved out eventually. They were nowhere near self-sufficient on food (and to be best knowledge, they still aren't).

We are.

It's England that isn't self sufficient for food (or water/electricity, relying on Welsh subsidies for all three). The UK as a whole can survive fine (which is good as you would hope that after 500+ years we would have gotten that sorted xD).

[Pann]

It's worth remembering that a Labour lead coalition with the Lib Dems was the first option explored after the 2010 election however Labour turned down the idea (understandable in hindsight as then they would have taken the hit for the austerity/economy and we would still have had a Tory government in 2015) resulting in the Lib Dems opting for the second choice coalition with the Torys.

The Lib Dems entered into talks with the Cons first it was only after negotiations appeared to stall that they entered into talks with Lab however a Lab/LD coalition would have been short of a majority and due to friction within both parties it was never likely that a Lab/LD would been agreed.

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Oh well... I guess that's that https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49991408

[Huehuecoyotl]

Oh well... I guess that's that https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49991408

You do understand that's the BBC you are linking to there? The organisation that's had so many political appointees that you might as well describe it as the journalistic wing of the Tory party.

The headline is misleading, unsurprisingly. They aren't criticising the Tory proposal; they are critiquing it. Pointing out the huge, gaping logical flaws in it for the edification of anyone interested. If Boris had even paid lip service to presenting something sensible that could be seen as the starting point for a proper negotiation, this wouldn't be happening. But he basically shat on a piece of paper, folded it up and mailed it to the EU.

Anyone expecting the EU to treat this proposal as anything but the joke it was intended to be, hasn't been paying attention.

[Jessicka]

so where is dribbles? I miss his psychotic delusional ramblings

Looks like his slide to overt racism and anti-semitism got him banned.

[Pann]

The Tories have a cunning plan! https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status...20313929805824

Lab not impressed tho! https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/sta...28305807134723

[Jessicka]

Well he can say he doesn’t want it, it’s up to Parliament whether to accept it, so it doesn’t matter what he wants; he’s requesting it in letter one on behalf of the state.

It’s already been debunked as a possibility, repeatedly. But hey this is a government that thinks repeating bullshit enough makes it true.

[Zaydin]

Had the Lib Dems allied with Labour, or just acted independently, they could have prevented austerity as the Tories were nowhere near a majority.



We were actively pushing back through North Africa into the Mediterranean regardless of whether Overlord happened or was successful. Again though, that was largely possible thanks to the Soviet Union stalling them in the East.

Doesn't change the fact that the Brits did not have the means to contest the Germans on the continent until the combination of the Soviets bleeding the Germans dry on the Eastern Front and US manpower and material to invade the continent.

[Gorsameth]

The Tories have a cunning plan! https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status...20313929805824

Lab not impressed tho! https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/sta...28305807134723

Are they living in a world where the EU doesn't watch television or see Twitter?
This looks like a cartoon villain explaining his evil plan while twirling his moustache forgetting that there is a camera still running.

[Jessicka]

Doesn't change the fact that the Brits did not have the means to contest the Germans on the continent until the combination of the Soviets bleeding the Germans dry on the Eastern Front and US manpower and material to invade the continent.

Of course it doesn’t. I’m just telling you how schools here teach it, very, very anglocentric. You wouldn’t even know we had Empire troops or that the Far Eastern theatre existed, because we straight up lost against the Japanese.

Honestly, even North Africa is glossed over, because we spent so much time losing there too.

They focus on the battles we won, Britain, the Atlantic and D-Day.

[zealo]

Of course it doesn’t. I’m just telling you how schools here teach it, very, very anglocentric. You wouldn’t even know we had Empire troops or that the Far Eastern theatre existed, because we straight up lost against the Japanese.

Honestly, even North Africa is glossed over, because we spent so much time losing there too.

They focus on the battles we won, Britain, the Atlantic and D-Day.

To be fair, the operational level stuff in Asia isn't really all that relevant in Europe in a more general overview, when you're on a schedule with limited time to fit things in. That stuff gets taught in university classes etc for those with an interest in such.

The real crime of an education like that is ignoring the sheer scale of what went on in eastern Europe, which combined with what Hollywood puts out can give a very warped view of the European theatre.