The Brexit aftermath thread

[Deleted]

I take it from this you don't want the UK to take control of its borders and are quite happy to let the free movement of goods and people continue, presumably complying with EU laws and regulations?

Literally the only land border we have with a foreign country and these Brexiteers don't want to take control of it.

You can't make this shit up.

[Iphie]

Literally the only land border we have with a foreign country and these Brexiteers don't want to take control of it.

You can't make this shit up.

Isn't Gibraltar a land border as well? I'll admit to not being 100% up to speed on the situation there, but I did think it was attached to Spain?

[Mayhem]

There is no legal obligation and frankly no moral requirement either for continuing payments to the EU. If following exit UK drivers are not allowed on the continents roads and planes will no longer fly any talk of morals are out of the window. Oh btw have the Spanish hoteliers who expect 20 million British tourists to fully book out their hotels in 2019 been told they will now be empty due to the grounded aircraft?

Good job the Spanish economy is in such super strength and able to cope with that loss of revenue....oh wait

The only way the EU will get any more money out of UK is if they accept our very generous offer of £18bn for a free trade deal, that is the offer on the table - take it or leave it. Tick Tock less than two weeks for the EU to decide if they will crash off the cliff without a deal, or accept it.

So you've moved away from hard borders and no deal is awesome to free trade deal and we're paying for it?

[Dizzeeyooo]

Isn't Gibraltar a land border as well? I'll admit to not being 100% up to speed on the situation there, but I did think it was attached to Spain?

Gibraltar is the perfect example of why Ireland pushed so hard to have the other 26 EU countries agree to make the Ireland/NI border one of the initial primary issues to be discussed - apart from some shit in the daily mail a year+ ago about us going to war with Spain, absolutely zero mention has been made by anyone in the UK Government of the UK's other "hard" border with the EU which is basically 100% dependant on free movement to function - so good luck after Brexit I guess

[Mayhem]

They forced austerity measures in times of depression without letting them default (which would have been better than the "help" provided)

No it wouldn't have been better to let greece default. Default would have meant leaving the eurozone, having to establish a new currency in the midst of a debt crisis, getting rated worse than mozambique while still having to establish a new currency so people are able to trade, probably zero to none international investors willing to buy bonds leaving greece with printing its own money which devalues the new established worthless currency even more.

So greece wouldn't have to pay back loans, but would in return actually be bankrupt, with a worthless currency, probably no banks left and citizens unable to afford basic needs.

Yeah, that sounds awesome.

[Dizzeeyooo]

I mean those people buy all their goods from Spain, most of them work in Spain as well. And with no deal they will be left with no job security (if not simply no jobs), having to wait hours every day to get to work, and all the local stores jacking prices up.

stop talking Brexit down please

[Kiri]

If taking advantage of the weak state of a nation and beating them into submission with austerity policies is not imperialism, then I'm really curious to see how you define imperialism.

A forceful acquisition of territory/power over a country? But, again, you seem to think that the austerity policies and reforms wanted are some sort of tool to beat it into submission, rather than a goal that the EU thinks will help Greece normalize things. Again, it is debatable whether austerity is the right move there, but Greece rejected implementing them for a long time without the situation improving, so I doubt the call for reforms was completely unfounded.
But on the other hand, your definition of imperialism seems to be 'having conditions on future bailouts', so the only way to not be imperialistic would be to just continue giving Greece money until the problem is resolved somehow.

[Noradin]

No it wouldn't have been better to let greece default. Default would have meant leaving the eurozone, having to establish a new currency in the midst of a debt crisis, getting rated worse than mozambique while still having to establish a new currency so people are able to trade, probably zero to none international investors willing to buy bonds leaving greece with printing its own money which devalues the new established worthless currency even more.

Oh the rich investors would have loved to have Greece default, their wealth isn't affected because it isn't monetary and isn't in Greece.
A default always hurts those who get paid wages or pensions the most, because those are worth nothing afterwards.
Unfortunately, it's the rich who have the money to spare to pay for getting their opinions spread.

[zealo]

Honestly, Greece shouldn't have been allowed to join the Euro in the first place. If they hadn't, they'd have access to measures like intentionally devaluing their own currency, which while not fixing the underlying problem is a stopgap. When on the Euro, that kind off measure was closed off to them. But there's people on both sides of the fence responsible for them joining the Euro Zone when they shouldn't have, not just the Greeks.

As long as a situation like that is allowed to develop I am just glad the Euro isn't entirely mandatory, but we'll see how long that lasts with the UK out.

[Noradin]

Well the bankers across Europe who had loaned to Greece for decades would also not be happy, which was why Greece was bailed out. In essence European citizens got burdened with these debts in place of their banks.

They would have found a way to make the the ones who hoped to save some money for their old age pay for it, so it would have been a burden on European citizens anyway. The bankers themselves wouldn't have to pay.

[Mittens]

A forceful acquisition of territory/power over a country? But, again, you seem to think that the austerity policies and reforms wanted are some sort of tool to beat it into submission, rather than a goal that the EU thinks will help Greece normalize things. Again, it is debatable whether austerity is the right move there, but Greece rejected implementing them for a long time without the situation improving, so I doubt the call for reforms was completely unfounded.
But on the other hand, your definition of imperialism seems to be 'having conditions on future bailouts', so the only way to not be imperialistic would be to just continue giving Greece money until the problem is resolved somehow.

Again, you can't tell me that the EU genuinely thought austerity policies would help Greece while denying Greece the ability to default considering virtually every expert opposed such move. Heck, not even the IMF supported further austerity policies (and they are usually pretty enthusiastic about it) yet the EU kept pushing. The whole thing was malitious af.


I mean, just look at some of the projected growth graphs they used to justify their shitty policies:

[Noradin]

Honestly, Greece shouldn't have been allowed to join the Euro in the first place. If they hadn't, they'd have access to measures like intentionally devaluing their own currency, which while not fixing the underlying problem is a stopgap. When on the Euro, that kind off measure was closed off to them. But there's people on both sides of the fence responsible for them joining the Euro Zone when they shouldn't have, not just the Greeks.

As long as a situation like that is allowed to develop I am just glad the Euro isn't entirely mandatory, but we'll see how long that lasts with the UK out.

Devaluing a currency just means getting rid of pensions. It does not really solve any problems at all, it is just stealing money from those who cannot protect themselves because they do not have enough money to spare to transfer it out of the country and aren't wealthy enough to posses estates and means of production.
It is a redistribution of wealth from the poor to the rich, nothing more. There is a reason why it makes states so unstable unless the population is oppressed violently.

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That's a weak definition of impearialism bro.

It is still stronger than your definition of reality, it seems, because what you claim happened to Greece? It didn't in the real world.

[Mittens]

No it wouldn't have been better to let greece default. Default would have meant leaving the eurozone, having to establish a new currency in the midst of a debt crisis, getting rated worse than mozambique while still having to establish a new currency so people are able to trade, probably zero to none international investors willing to buy bonds leaving greece with printing its own money which devalues the new established worthless currency even more.

So greece wouldn't have to pay back loans, but would in return actually be bankrupt, with a worthless currency, probably no banks left and citizens unable to afford basic needs.

Yeah, that sounds awesome.

Most countries that defaulted are doing pretty fine rn, see Iceland. Had Greece defaulted in 2008 their debt crisis would've been over and the burden of it would've fallen to Germany and the rest of EU banks that made the loans to Greece.

[Noradin]

Again, you can't tell me that the EU genuinely thought austerity policies would help Greece while denying Greece the ability to default considering virtually every expert opposed such move. Heck, not even the IMF supported further austerity policies (and they are usually pretty enthusiastic about it) yet the EU kept pushing. The whole thing was malitious af.


I mean, just look at some of the projected growth graphs they used to justify their shitty policies:

Yes, that is what happens when someone refuses to apply necessary reforms out of obstinacy.

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Most countries that defaulted are doing pretty fine rn, see Iceland. Had Greece defaulted in 2008 their debt crisis would've been over and the burden of it would've fallen to Germany and the rest of EU banks that made the loans to Greece.

Mostly though it would have punished their own workers and pensioners for getting a wage or pension, because those would have been worthless afterwards.
But I guess you are alright with poor people starving to death as long as it hurts Germany, too?

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If we had never joined the Euro, we would never have managed to be in such staggering debt because noone could possibly excuse loaning us SO MUCH. But that is besides the point. Brexit did not happen because of Greece, it was maybe one fading point argued by those in favor of Brexit. And when looking at the EU bailouts, singling out the Greek one when similar bailouts were offered to other states with far greater success is disingenuous.

I agree.
I was just pointing out the actual effects of currency devaluation as opposed to the magical ones some people imagine.

[Mayhem]

Most countries that defaulted are doing pretty fine rn, see Iceland. Had Greece defaulted in 2008 their debt crisis would've been over and the burden of it would've fallen to Germany and the rest of EU banks that made the loans to Greece.

Iceland wasn't and isn't part of the eurozone, apart from that minor thing, it's not really comparable since the problem with greeces debt stems also from its unwillingness to reform their tax system, did you read my post at all or are you just posting stuff for the heck of it?

[Noradin]

A few things:
Reforms were not delayed out of obstinacy. They were delayed because of political instability, incompetence and corruption as well as because of the Constitution itself.
Specifically, all Greek Public Servants have tenure and cannot be fired. The first government gave them the option of early retirement (their favourite), significantly increasing the pension burden. Other governments have tried to shuffle them around and fire most of those who were contracted workers. What is still sorely needed is constitutional reform to completely remove that concept of tenure but no party is willing to request such a reform and anger the public servant voting block (even though the relationship between public servants and private employees and entrepreneurs is openly hostile). Thus, not obstinacy but rather corruption and political expediency.

I classify corrupted officials staying in their position despite them clearly destroying their country that way as obstinacy on their part
Same for politicians not tackling essential reforms because it might damage their career.

Yes, that is an outsiders view.
But I am willing to give money to Greece, if only I get the impression it will make things better instead of worse.
It's not that I want the people in Greece to suffer, it's that I don't want them to suffer which makes me reluctant to just offer money to their government for free. Because I think that would just reassure them in their procrastination.

[Mittens]

Iceland wasn't and isn't part of the eurozone, apart from that minor thing, it's not really comparable since the problem with greeces debt stems also from its unwillingness to reform their tax system, did you read my post at all or are you just posting stuff for the heck of it?

Your post doesn't mention any particular challenge that Iceland did not face.

but would in return actually be bankrupt

So was Iceland.

with a worthless currency

Iceland let its currency collapse, so again nothing different.

probably no banks left

Iceland also let its bank fail instead of bailing them out.

As for the currency part, it's nothing some tight capital controls can't fix. You know like Iceland did.

Also, Greece already suffered most of the negatives you mention. Suicide rates increased, food and medicine shortages and so on.

Whatever Greek's fate might have been it's clear that the current situation is not doing any better.

[Mayhem]

Your post doesn't mention any particular challenge that Iceland did not face.

You mean apart from not being part of the eurozone? Yeah.

Iceland also let its bank fail instead of bailing them out.

As for the currency part, it's nothing some tight capital controls can't fix. You know like Iceland did.

Also, Greece already suffered most of the negatives you mention. Suicide rates increased, food and medicine shortages and so on.

Whatever Greek's fate might have been it's clear that the current situation is not doing any better.

Iceland had a balanced export/import economy to fall back on, greece isn't exporting all too much and therefore defaulting wouldn't have helped because they couldn't start exporting cheaper goods because they were importing double/triple the amount they were exporting for at least a decade.

Ever tried to buy goods with a useless currency?

Also the lack of tight capital controls are the problem that started all of this shit, so when the EU demands them it's bad but if greece defaulted and did it themselves it's good?

[Slant]

Iceland let its currency collapse, so again nothing different.

Iceland also let its bank fail instead of bailing them out.

The subtle difference is that Iceland was financially more than healthy before they started allowing banks to speculate. All they had to do is sacrifice a pawn and stop making the one mistake that ruined their economy. Greece had no ambition to change their behaviour at all. Quite the opposite, they wanted to continue as they did, except they wanted the EU to sponsor their joyride.

There's a whole world of differences between Iceland and Greece.

And given that their GDP is growing again, I think the EU didn't do too badly for now.

[Acidbaron]

If you want to call EU the big bad wolf, you have to explain why Portugal while using different approach than recommended by the EU is left alone, while Greece wasn't.

Since all this really is people pointing the finger to the EU while the problems were indeed very much national, Greece entered the EU under falsified numbers, Greece failed to collect taxes, Greece had and still has a too large public sector, Greece was and still is plagued by corruption on all levels of government what lead again to certain people not paying taxes and again a too large public sector.

Greece got bailed out several times and made promises but did not act on actual reforms, The greece population indeed suffered but this is due to the government refusal to make structural changes, this hard stance had to be taken since otherwise it would be the same as throwing money into a blackhole and that money was only greasing the palms of government officials and not really helping the public. If Greece acted correctly the first time this was pointed out this hole would not have been this big, instead due to actions of their politicians and riling up the population they made it worse since they also in part torpedoed their tourist sector with their anger towards other europeans and series of strikes. To no surprise the kremlin was very pleased with this out come hence them trying to convince Greece to side with them, while in reality if Greece taxed all wealthy russians correctly in their tax haven it would go a long way in helping their financial issues.

Once structural changes took place, despite a lot of posturing from the populist government and especially the former finance minister who failed to deliver on actual plans and played bluff poker with an empty hand what further more damaged the trust the EU government had in Greece, but now the changes took place and things are looking better nations are urging for debt relief, including in those nations, Germany often depicted by the Greece population as the bad guy who's strangling them, but much like the Brexiteers camp the EU is often used as the scapegoat by politicians on a national level to avoid taking their responsibility and even more so their part of the blame, much easier to put it on a camp that does not bite back unlike the opposition normally would.

But as usual people like Mittens know only half the story or nothing from it as they prefer to believe the simplistic populist answer, since the complex answer is much more moderate and people like him prefer extremes as it makes for a better story, much like american politics they prefer everything to be black and white, good or bad.

I do find it amusing that trump supporters are equally uninformed on almost all political matters. Guess that's what that happens if you decide to remain in your bubble and never watch anything informative that might question your rather simplistic world view.