The Brexit aftermath thread

[Noradin]

What does that even mean? How do these alternative arrangements differ from the backstop?

Probably the same way alternative reality and alternative facts differ from reality and facts.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Sir Graham wants to see the Irish backstop replaced by what he calls "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border", but would otherwise support the prime minister's deal.

What does that even mean? How do these alternative arrangements differ from the backstop?

EU= Al, UK=Kelly:
https://streamable.com/ap2lm

If you ask any of the Brexit idiots, they will give you a consistent answer. The alternative is "simple", "easy to carry out", "will result in no need for any form of border" and will ensure that we don't need to stay in the custom union. It involves some kind of technology that doesn't exist yet, and they will be vague on the details of how it will work. But they will be categorical that we don't need a backstop, even though the backstop only becomes relevant if they don't actually have this magical solution for the border.

In other words, it's all complete bollocks. They don't have a solution, they are lying through their teeth and hoping we don't notice. Pretty much par for the course for this lot.

[Dizzeeyooo]

What does that even mean? How do these alternative arrangements differ from the backstop?

It means nothing when the whole point of the backstop is to be a guaranteed insurance policy that works if alternative arrangements (that have so far failed to materialize in 2.5 years, funny that) do not.

The idea behind the Brady amendment is to try and create something that can get a majority of Tory + DUP MPs voting for it in the HoC, so May can have it rejected by the EU and the Conservative party can comfortably go into full "see we were reasonable and they rejected it, cruel mean EU etc" mode.

Basically

If parliament passes an amended version of May’s Withdrawal Agreement with backstop diluted/removed it’ll be a big deal however the EU responds. The UK will FINALLY have agreed position and voters will see an uncompromising EU as the villain, rather than a dysfunctional Conmons

which is why stark raving idiots like him are angry with the ERG for deciding not to support the amendment at the last moment - which likely kills it.

[Slant]

If you ask any of the Brexit idiots, they will give you a consistent answer. The alternative is "simple", "easy to carry out", "will result in no need for any form of border" and will ensure that we don't need to stay in the custom union. It involves some kind of technology that doesn't exist yet, and they will be vague on the details of how it will work. But they will be categorical that we don't need a backstop, even though the backstop only becomes relevant if they don't actually have this magical solution for the border.

In other words, it's all complete bollocks. They don't have a solution, they are lying through their teeth and hoping we don't notice. Pretty much par for the course for this lot.

Actually, it's not even a technology. A response given to me in all seriousness in this very thread was that the EU should just trust the UK to act in their interest. Since there will be a gaping hole, the EU is meant to trust that the UK won't abuse it by pushing everything they want to sell to the EU through Northern Ireland. Essentially, the UK would get what it wants... it's free of the restrictions but can continue to flood the EU market as a gateway for third countries. And all preventing the UK from making a tidy profit is, of course, their gentlemen's promise not to exploit the oh so tantalizing situation.

I mean, nobody wants to say it, but regardless of GFA, the EU knows about this.. it's so blindingly obvious that nobody even dares talk about it, because it would be accusing the UK of some very unpleasant thinking. But this is the other main reason (apart from the GFA, of course) why the UK's fantasy of a vague "technical solution" will not be accepted. The EU won't have a gaping hole in their outer borders. Not without some very precise and detailed concepts on how to warrant EU border integrity. And just thinking about it, everyone should realise that "it's easy" is not part of the description.

It's kinda refreshing to see someone go "but I said please!" and still being rejected. Because essentially that is what's happening these days. Brexiteers must be fuming that the EU won't budge. Doesn't the EU realise that the UK could make a fortune here? Why won't they allow the UK to exploit the EU? That's so mean! Evil EU! Laughable...

[Kallisto]

Actually, it's not even a technology. A response given to me in all seriousness in this very thread was that the EU should just trust the UK to act in their interest. Since there will be a gaping hole, the EU is meant to trust that the UK won't abuse it by pushing everything they want to sell to the EU through Northern Ireland. Essentially, the UK would get what it wants... it's free of the restrictions but can continue to flood the EU market as a gateway for third countries. And all preventing the UK from making a tidy profit is, of course, their gentlemen's promise not to exploit the oh so tantalizing situation.

I mean, nobody wants to say it, but regardless of GFA, the EU knows about this.. it's so blindingly obvious that nobody even dares talk about it, because it would be accusing the UK of some very unpleasant thinking. But this is the other main reason (apart from the GFA, of course) why the UK's fantasy of a vague "technical solution" will not be accepted. The EU won't have a gaping hole in their outer borders. Not without some very precise and detailed concepts on how to warrant EU border integrity. And just thinking about it, everyone should realise that "it's easy" is not part of the description.

It's kinda refreshing to see someone go "but I said please!" and still being rejected. Because essentially that is what's happening these days. Brexiteers must be fuming that the EU won't budge. Doesn't the EU realise that the UK could make a fortune here? Why won't they allow the UK to exploit the EU? That's so mean! Evil EU! Laughable...

It's not even that anymore. Some are now basically saying that the EU should basically throw out ireland just to please the brexiteer vote. Thankfully no one in westminster (Just absolute idiots who don't get the empire is over saying Ireland should know their place which in a rational era would be rock bottom but alas) but the talk is there too.

[Acidbaron]

I think for once the EU is doing a top job at staying transparent and explaining everything they do. If they had started doing this like 30 years ago, we probably wouldn't be in this situation. But all this does right now is make the UK negotiation tactic seem very, very foolish and naive. But as you pointed out earlier, Brexiteers will blame the EU no matter what and pretend Brexit is good no matter what.

The problem of the EU is that it doesn't allow for much visible opposition, so now fringe movements took that as their dogma and turned a valid concern we can't properly debate into shitshows laced with dishonesty like the leave campaigns.

But this is a rather complicated topic with a lot of different perspectives and partied involved in, bit too heavy for this topic.

[Slant]

It's not even that anymore. Some are now basically saying that the EU should basically throw out ireland just to please the brexiteer vote. Thankfully no one in westminster (Just absolute idiots who don't get the empire is over saying Ireland should know their place which in a rational era would be rock bottom but alas) but the talk is there too.

Well, Ireland plays a key role in this tragedy, surely. But nobody can seriously expect them to give up EU membership to please the tantrum of another nation. The EU certainly doesn't. But this may mean that Ireland would have to protect the border of the EU. A very unpleasant situation indeed, because it forces them to do what they don't want.

We're not even talking about how motivated such border controls would be. A cynical bastard like me would've suggested to just go along and then "diplomatically" suggest to the Irish to wait a few months until everyone has gotten used to the new situation and then... not be as strict as you normally would.

Thank fuck that Westminster, for all its incompetence, can't be accused of being sinister. That is, except for a few choice politicians like JRM and his fan club.

- - - Updated - - -

The problem of the EU is that it doesn't allow for much visible opposition, so now fringe movements took that as their dogma and turned a valid concern we can't properly debate into shitshows laced with dishonesty like the leave campaigns.

But this is a rather complicated topic with a lot of different perspectives and partied involved in, bit too heavy for this topic.

I agree, it doesn't allow for visible opposition. But it is there, and dissent among the member states is clearly present in most topics. The main goal, however, is still to maintain peace and concordia in Europe, uniting the different opinions and then representing one voice to the outside... that is the ideal state of such an institution. This is how it's supposed to be. The Brexit negotiations are going to be taught in political classes as a textbook example of the power a bloc like this can wield. Democratically, too! Not like the Warsaw Pact where dissent was silenced with tanks.

[Nigel Tufnel]

So...



But Corbyn has yet to confirm support for Cooper's amendment and that Labour MPs will be whipped. @Huehuecoyotl - at exactly what point is your faith in Corbyn / Labour leadership actually going to expire?

There's no consensus for anything. Both parties and MPs guilty of appalling party politics / self-interest. UK's democratic process an absolute joke. No deal by default / accident a distinct possibility now. Literally, there will be chaos. There were practically riots when KFC ran out of chicken last year ffs. Ran out of chicken. Fucking muppets.

The country is fucked.

[dribbles]

Got to be tough when the EU begin to understand what a perilous position they are in. So many financial obligations and with a tanking economy no way to pay for them. What are their options? EU bankruptcy or give the UK some cherry cake...

EU PANIC: Fox hints at French and German no-deal Brexit CAPITULATION as economies weaken

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/10...eresa-May-vote

Now the penny appears to have finally dropped will we get some realism from the EU?

59 days to go, soon be time to swap from days to hours in that glorious final countdown to hard won freedom.

[Dizzeeyooo]

EU PANIC: Fox hints at French and German no-deal Brexit CAPITULATION as economies weaken

That great oracle of what the EU is thinking, the disgraced former defense secretary Liam Fox

[Huehuecoyotl]

So...



But Corbyn has yet to confirm support for Cooper's amendment and that Labour MPs will be whipped. @Huehuecoyotl - at exactly what point is your faith in Corbyn / Labour leadership actually going to expire?

There's no consensus for anything. Both parties and MPs guilty of appalling party politics / self-interest. UK's democratic process an absolute joke. No deal by default / accident a distinct possibility now. Literally, there will be chaos. There were practically riots when KFC ran out of chicken last year ffs. Ran out of chicken. Fucking muppets.

The country is fucked.

I don't support Corbyn. I support the policies he extols, which have been missing from UK politics for so long. Public ownership of critical facilities. A fairer tax system. Repairing the social safety net. Solving the housing crisis. I want a fairer country and I see him as a means to an end in redirecting Labour to be a party that stands for those things again. If he achieves that and then steps aside for a better politician that shares that vision, I will delighted. As, I suspect, will he.

As for what he is doing around Brexit, I have mixed feelings. I understand the line he is trying to walk to avoid damaging his party while despairing that our political system makes it necessary. I dislike how he has kicked the can down the road when it comes to making a decision, but I'm still hopeful when the end game is reached he will come down on the right side.

And I will still defend Labour when the press (and certain posters on here) try and redirect the blame for this shitshow onto anyone other than the Tories. You can see why the Tories want to do this, but they won't get away from it. They own the repercussions of this debacle, body and soul. They alone should pay the price for how this plays out.

[Nigel Tufnel]

As for what he is doing around Brexit, I have mixed feelings. I understand the line he is trying to walk to avoid damaging his party while despairing that our political system makes it necessary. I dislike how he has kicked the can down the road when it comes to making a decision, but I'm still hopeful when the end game is reached he will come down on the right side.

Hmms. Well, he's running out of time. The only scenario in which his hand will actually be forced is if Article 50 is delayed. And, if we crash out prior to that because he doesn't want to whip his MPs, on his head be it. I'm sure he'd be delighted. All that lovely state aid he could give unfettered. Oh wait... he wouldn't be able to because there wouldn't be any money.

Yes, Tories bear 90% responsibility for how we got here (see previous posts - I disagree with your 100% figure). However, Corbyn is as far into the land of unicorns as many as those on the right.

edit...

I take it all back

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...-idUKKCN1PN1F6

So - the Labour leadership is going to tell its MPs to back Cooper's amendment. Talk about leaving it until the last minute. IMO this makes rejection of May's deal more likely the second time round and a delay to A50, assuming the EU agree. It'd be funny if they didn't.

[Slant]

So - the Labour leadership is going to tell its MPs to back Cooper's amendment. Talk about leaving it until the last minute. IMO this makes rejection of May's deal more likely the second time round and a delay to A50, assuming the EU agree. It'd be funny if they didn't.

All rumours point towards the EU only granting a limited extension until the MEP elections in summer. And they have explicitely stated they would only consider an extension for technical reasons, like a second referendum or a GE. At the very least, a major shift in position from the UK is required to even get EU officials thinking favourably about an extension.

If the UK can't stop this madness, the EU will. We're now close to the point where "cutting your losses" becomes an appropriate phrase to use. It's funny, because for the past 4-5 months, the UK has been in charge and determined the roadmap. And they've wasted every bit of that period so far. Eventually, the EU will take back control over the time schedule and seal the deal. Or the no-deal, as it may be.

[Pann]

There's no consensus for anything. Both parties and MPs guilty of appalling party politics / self-interest. UK's democratic process an absolute joke. No deal by default / accident a distinct possibility now. Literally, there will be chaos. There were practically riots when KFC ran out of chicken last year ffs. Ran out of chicken. Fucking muppets.

The country is fucked.

Cooper's amendment seems, to me, to be a bit pointless. We cannot rule out no deal without a deal which would need to be approved by the EU (and they appear to be no mood for further negotiations) nor can we extend A50 without their approval, which is far from guaranteed. So what happens if the EU say "no" to either a parliament approved deal or an A50 extension?

Labour are not going to come out against Brexit as they are just as divided on the subject and the majority of their consistencies voted leave - doing so would drive the divisions within the party that they have kept under wraps for the last two years and would likely spell electoral defeat. Ironically, if polling is to believed, not coming out against Brexit appears that it would cause similar damage to their chances of being elected. So it is their best interests, especially whilst there is no overall public support to stop Brexit or even a 2nd ref, to keep their heads down and let people believe what they want about Lab's Brexit policies whilst hoping to snatch No.10 after Brexit.

In short it is a mixture of being in between a rock and hard place and, as you said, party politics and self interest.

MPs are looking for someone else to sort out their problem for them and I expect this to be reflected, once again, in tonight's vote but they will have to deal with it very soon or we're going to leave without a deal.

[Slant]

Cooper's amendment seems, to me, to be a bit pointless. We cannot rule out no deal without a deal which would need to be approved by the EU (and they appear to be no mood for further negotiations) nor can we extend A50 without their approval, which is far from guaranteed. So what happens if the EU say "no" to either a parliament approved deal or an A50 extension?

Then you really have two choices: Call it off and cancel Art 50... or crash out. As far as the EU is concerned, the legal technicalities are sound and working. If nothing happens, you crash out. So legally speaking, there is clarity. For bureaucrats, that's all they need.

[Acidbaron]

Nobody is really in favour for extending it till past the EU elections or even close to. What is at the end of may, so if anything is granted it will be nothing more than a few weeks, what is really not worth it looking at how they still don't know what they want.

[Slant]

Nobody is really in favour for extending it till past the EU elections or even close to. What is at the end of may, so if anything is granted it will be nothing more than a few weeks, what is really not worth it looking at how they still don't know what they want.

Personally, I wouldn't mind the extension. It doesn't cost the EU anything to let the UK have a few more weeks of fun and games in the media and it would be seen as the EU really giving the UK every chance they can to get out of this in a somewhat decent shape.

[Gibblewink]

I believe Corbyn's notion was that he as PM would negotiate "A comprehensive customs union with a UK say over EU trade deals" which is really no less demented than what hear from the lips of Boris.

[Pann]

I believe Corbyn's notion was that he as PM would negotiate "A comprehensive customs union with a UK say over EU trade deals" which is really no less demented than what hear from the lips of Boris.

He did an interview on Andrew Marr's show a few weeks back and if you read back the transcript not knowing that it was a recent Corbyn interview it would be very easy to believe that it was Johnson being interviewed in the run up to the ref.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/13011901.pdf

[Acidbaron]

Personally, I wouldn't mind the extension. It doesn't cost the EU anything to let the UK have a few more weeks of fun and games in the media and it would be seen as the EU really giving the UK every chance they can to get out of this in a somewhat decent shape.

Besides an election being messed around with, we have plenty of populists people going after low hanging fruit, really don't need the UK parties on top of that.

Also you are naive if you think after 2 years of not knowing what they want they'll magically reach a conclusion in those few weeks. Those weeks have to be there to work a the details that's all the extension should be for, not more time spend on all the rest. No they are already setting up the stage for it to becoming the "EU's fault" look at the backstop talks.

First they need to come up with something, then we can start talking about an extension not the other way around.