The Brexit aftermath thread

[Dizzeeyooo]

no Brexit...All shit options.

Not sure I agree completely with your analysis

[LeGin Tufnel]

This is extraordinary.

MAY isn't going get this vote, the EU isn't going to extend for nothing, options are now; no deal Brexit on the 29th, new referendum, new general election or no Brexit. All shit options.

Well, that's quite a selection. Not sure I agree with you. What's an option for you that isn't shit? A softer Brexit than May's?

There I was, roundly resigned to May's deal a couple of hours ago.

Is there genuinely the will to grant a long extension, though?

Fucking hell, this is going to go on forever.

May you live in interesting times, and all that.

[mojojojo202]

This is extraordinary.



Well, that's quite a selection. Not sure I agree with you. What's an option for you that isn't shit? A softer Brexit than May's?

There I was, roundly resigned to May's deal a couple of hours ago.

Is there genuinely the will to grant a long extension, though?

Fucking hell, this is going to go on forever.

May you live in interesting times, and all that.

In a nutshell... there isn't one...

No Brexit is the least shit on paper but it also means the public school bot gobshites like Farage and BoJo are gonna go into total overdrive whipping people up into a feverish rage with no sensible place to calm down.

[Acidbaron]

This is extraordinary.



Well, that's quite a selection. Not sure I agree with you. What's an option for you that isn't shit? A softer Brexit than May's?

There I was, roundly resigned to May's deal a couple of hours ago.

Is there genuinely the will to grant a long extension, though?

Fucking hell, this is going to go on forever.

May you live in interesting times, and all that.

Only Donald Tusk has come out in favour for a long extension and even that is under reservation of several conditions.

The EU has had enough and the damage the uncertainty is causing makes it so there's very little good will left.

[Twdft]

There I was thinking it couldn't get any crazier. Cue Bercow "hold my beer".

[Pann]

Well fucking played Johnny. The way May has been behaving since December is to me, the truest failing of our Parliament. She has shown absolutely no respect for it's traditions and the HoC should of pinned her to the fucking wall months ago over this. Any MP that talks of a "constitutional crisis" brought on by Bercow needs their head examining when it's May that has been disgracing The House for months.

Bercow was absolutely right to stop May from bullying and bribing her deal through parliament but I am not sure much has materially changed. I guess now we have to wait and see what the EU says with regard to an extension. It's a good job we've taken back control and not reliant on other countries?!?

[Kronik85]

Bercow was absolutely right to stop May from bullying and bribing her deal through parliament but I am not sure much has materially changed. I guess now we have to wait and see what the EU says with regard to an extension. It's a good job we've taken back control and not reliant on other countries?!?

I've been mulling it over and I think we are about as fucked as we were last week, probably a 'lil more so. Hammond wouldn't of been discussing postponing the vote if May thought it was going to pass this time round, so if this was the case then in all likelihood this EU Summit was going to be starting without us having a policy anyway. So yes, nothing has materially changed.

There I was thinking at the start of the day we would see Remainers bought off with 2nd Ref and May's Deal would pass.

[Iphie]

I don't see any reason to grant an extension, May's deal is dead, the EU won't renegotiate, Art. 50 won't likely be revoked before next week Friday. I think Dribbs is getting what he wants: a no deal Brexit.

Let's just get it done and over with.

[LeGin Tufnel]

It would be a touch ironic if Bercow has, actually, condemned us to No Deal.

Where are we now? I'm completely confused.

When's the EU meeting? So - that's when they're going to agree (or not) a short extension (which won't be any use) and if necessary a long extension?

[Demolitia]

I mean at this point it's locked to No Deal. Before I thought that maybe at the last moment people will rather vote May's Deal than deal with No Deal but now that's not an option.

Basically she has 2 options now? Ask for an extension which would probably only work if she calls for a referendum, which she can't do? Or repel A50?

- - - Updated - - -

It would be a touch ironic if Bercow has, actually, condemned us to No Deal.

Where are we now? I'm completely confused.

When's the EU meeting? So - that's when they're going to agree (or not) a short extension (which won't be any use) and if necessary a long extension?

Wasn't there a motion barring her from calling a second referendum and another from no deal?

[Pann]

It would be a touch ironic if Bercow has, actually, condemned us to No Deal.

Talking of irony, Erskine-May was Theresa May's husband's great-great-grandfather.

Oh, damn. Peston, and me, have been had! It was a joke!

[LeGin Tufnel]

Wasn't there a motion barring her from calling a second referendum and another from no deal?

No deal is the default. This is what some academic on LBC is arguing with Farage about now. He's saying parliament is more likely to bring the government down and revoke. I think that's wishful thinking.

[Demolitia]

No deal is the default. This is what some academic on LBC is arguing with Farage about now. He's saying parliament is more likely to bring the government down and revoke. I think that's wishful thinking.

I know, I was just wondering, provided that no extension is granted, whether she could decide to revoke A50 and cancel the Brexit bill since all other options (including no deal) have been rejected by parliament?

[Pann]

I've been mulling it over and I think we are about as fucked as we were last week, probably a 'lil more so. Hammond wouldn't of been discussing postponing the vote if May thought it was going to pass this time round, so if this was the case then in all likelihood this EU Summit was going to be starting without us having a policy anyway. So yes, nothing has materially changed.

There I was thinking at the start of the day we would see Remainers bought off with 2nd Ref and May's Deal would pass.

I don't think there was anyway that the DUP were going to agree to her deal but I was convinced that remainers within parliament would not be able to hold their nerve and she'd get it through at the last minute.

What the EU say about an extension is now going to be crucial. This table with potential member states' reaction to an extension is from an Open Europe article (https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog...-50-extension/) published on 8th March;



I don't know how accurate it is or whether or not opinion has shifted in the last 10 days but it certainly highlights that there is no consensus within the EU27 and how precarious the current situation is.

[Acidbaron]

I know, I was just wondering, provided that no extension is granted, whether she could decide to revoke A50 and cancel the Brexit bill since all other options (including no deal) have been rejected by parliament?

It's an option but unlikely since we aren't just talking about personal political suicide, a cancellation would be bad for the conservative party as a whole.

And we have all seen how much they like to stay in power.

[Demolitia]

It's an option but unlikely since we aren't just talking about personal political suicide, a cancellation would be bad for the conservative party as a whole.

And we have all seen how much they like to stay in power.

Isn't anything but the deal political suicide at this point?

[Dizzeeyooo]

Wasn't there a motion barring her from calling a second referendum

Was not called, so did not happen.

and another from no deal?

Was advisory only, so meaningless until legislation is passed.

[Acidbaron]

Isn't anything but the deal political suicide at this point?

That depends what and who their base is. the current deal would also be problematic but less than not going through.

It also depends how large you think each group is.

[tehealadin]

Was it the Welsh bloke who also didn't like sending money to the EU when it could be better spent at home, making him completely wrong (Wales gets more out of the EU than it puts in.)

No, this was another guy, an English one. I think I saw that Welsh one though, thanks (or not) for reminding me lol. I also saw one today with a 70 year old taking part in that "march" for Brexit saying he wants out because he didn't want his grandkids being conscripted into an EU army led by Gerry. It....it just makes you despair.

[Demolitia]

Was not called, so did not happen.


Was advisory only, so meaningless until legislation is passed.

Ah ok, thanks. I didn't follow that bit closely.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think there was anyway that the DUP were going to agree to her deal but I was convinced that remainers within parliament would not be able to hold their nerve and she'd get it through at the last minute.

What the EU say about an extension is now going to be crucial. This table with potential member states' reaction to an extension is from an Open Europe article (https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog...-50-extension/) published on 8th March;


I don't know how accurate it is or whether or not opinion has shifted in the last 10 days but it certainly highlights that there is no consensus within the EU27 and how precarious the current situation is.

That table has been updated. Notably France is in "needs a clear reason" camp.