The Brexit aftermath thread

[Crispin]

So as expected, no deal or revoking A50/very long extension, and as seen in the list above, an extension wont be given with a "We dont know what the fuck to do?!?!" reason.

[Acidbaron]

Ah ok, thanks. I didn't follow that bit closely.

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That table has been updated. Notably France is in "needs a clear reason" camp.

And remember that all on those list need to say yes to an extension.

[dribbles]

I don't see any reason to grant an extension, May's deal is dead, the EU won't renegotiate, Art. 50 won't likely be revoked before next week Friday. I think Dribbs is getting what he wants: a no deal Brexit.

Let's just get it done and over with.

That's pretty much where we are. A small yippeee to the speaker for moving us a bit closer to no deal.

However, my understanding is that Theresa May has been granted "executive powers" to ask for an extension from the EU and to accept that should it be offered the effect of which would be to modify the A50 leaving date without the need for UK primary legislation. So lets hope they don't, and from those pretty tables eurochums have posted on here the EU seems pretty fractured. Silly me thought they spoke as one...

Or the EU offer something new that allows her to table a modified WA to parliament. Or the Queen dissolves parliament one day and re-opens it the next into a new session when the speaker would not have the authority to deny the same deal that has already been voted down to be put to the vote again in such a new session.

As it stands though, too right we are leaving in a few days time without a deal. Wonderful news....Tick tock....

[Crispin]

That's pretty much where we are. A small yippeee to the speaker for moving us a bit closer to no deal.

However, my understanding is that Theresa May has been granted "executive powers" to ask for an extension from the EU and to accept that should it be offered the effect of which would be to modify the A50 leaving date without the need for UK primary legislation. So lets hope they don't, and from those pretty tables eurochums have posted on here the EU seems pretty fractured. Silly me thought they spoke as one...

Or the EU offer something new that allows her to table a modified WA to parliament. Or the Queen dissolves parliament one day and re-opens it the next into a new session when the speaker would not have the authority to deny the same deal that has already been voted down to be put to the vote again in such a new session.

As it stands though, too right we are leaving in a few days time without a deal. Wonderful news....Tick tock....

Exactly, the EU is not some overlord that dictates what countries do, finally you seem to get it, good for you son.

[Omega10]

No-deal Brexit go go go.

The rest of the world needs to see what happens to countries that leave the EU.

At least British politicians will stop embarrassing the UK so much. Or if they do, I suppose no one else will care. EU just needs to make the transition to a UK-free Europe as smooth as possible.

[Huehuecoyotl]

As it stands though, too right we are leaving in a few days time without a deal. Wonderful news....Tick tock....

Right up until the point where we don't. Get used to it dribbles, no deal is dead. It isn't happening. It's just a shame you seem to have developed a nervous tick about the whole thing.

[kaid]

Right up until the point where we don't. Get used to it dribbles, no deal is dead. It isn't happening. It's just a shame you seem to have developed a nervous tick about the whole thing.

No deal is dead but no deal is still the likely outcome from this debacle. Anything else requires an affirmative vote and I don't see these clowns pulling their heads from other people's backsides long enough to actually vote FOR something. I think the plan is try for a delay but at this point I am not sure without some actual plan for how they want to proceed that the EU would be willing to do so. At some point you just need to yank the bandage off even if it hurts.

[LeGin Tufnel]

The rest of the world needs to see what happens to countries that leave the EU.

Ehh.

EHhhh...

How did things ever get so far? I don't know. It was so unfortunate, so unnecessary. EU lost a country and we lost the EU. We're quits. And if the EU agrees, then we're willing to let things go on the way they were before.

---

Dur da da Dur da Da durrrrr... Dur da da Dur da Da durrrr.... etc.

[zealo]

Right up until the point where we don't. Get used to it dribbles, no deal is dead. It isn't happening. It's just a shame you seem to have developed a nervous tick about the whole thing.

No-deal won't be dead until the moment UK parliament votes to withdraw Article 50, or the government otherwise does, or a deal with the EU gets passed.

Until that happens, no-deal is still the default even if UK Parliament votes against it happening.

[ranzino]

EU summit starts in less than 72h; UK needs to get its stuff together now and asks a honest question about reasons of extension.

[Skroe]

I guess John Bercow remembered over the weekend that one of the most effective strategies at defeating a shambling zombie is to close the doors and lock them.

Still... brilliant move on his part. I mean, he had nothing to lose. He's gone from being re-elected unanimously to having zero friends, with his speakership all but sure to be over this fall.

He really did strike a blow for democratic principles though... meaningful votes should actually be meaningful and it was hypocritical for the government to say "we can't have a second Brexit referendum... the people have spoken" and then turn around and keep voting on the May Zombie Deal until it squeaks through. Even in the US, repeated voting on the same issue is generally not done.

Hopefully this compells May to do the right and obvious thing and include a second referendum in the deal... an up or down vote on Remain or the May dead. She gets a vote on it because the "substantive change" would be the inclusion of a new referendum vote.

Or maybe they'll continuing this farce and not do the right thing.

[Zaktar]

She has a better chance of getting reelected if she crashes the country with No Deal than if she compromised Brexit. If she thought otherwise, she'd have gone with a referendum months ago simply because that passes the hot potato to the people. So no, full sails for No Deal.
I could be wrong of course, fingers crossed.

You'd think, "how will people weigh my decisions 50 years from now" would weigh more heavily than "what will get me reelected," but then that kind of thinking is how you fail to get elected in the first place so it's a kind of self-selection problem.

[Slant]

It would be a touch ironic if Bercow has, actually, condemned us to No Deal.

Where are we now? I'm completely confused.

When's the EU meeting? So - that's when they're going to agree (or not) a short extension (which won't be any use) and if necessary a long extension?

Tusk is apparently making the rounds through the EU's capitals (minus London obviously) to gather opinions and prepare them to speak with one voice. Expect two things on the EU summit (the only meeting that matters this week): Either a last ditch effort to save the UK from ruin, or the EU cutting off a limb and rejecting any alteration to the situation. Either way, it will be a very clear, very simple message coming out of the summit on Thursday. And it will leave the UK with (probably) two options: Crash out or revoke A50. And they will ignore whatever noise comes out of the House of Commons, because the EU doesn't deal with the House of Commons, they deal with the PM who invoked A50 (who is the only person that has to listen to the noise in the House of Commons).

Remember, revocation of A50 has to be done in accordance with the member state's constitutional requirements, as per the ECJ. There is a chance, fortunately a small one, that the EU decides the UK couldn't even revoke if it wanted to in the time left. If that becomes the official stance, you would already be out on Thursday in practice, although you'd have to wait until the 29th to see the legal effect.

I don't think an extension will be granted. Mostly, because of what many of you have already stated or implied: The UK still has no majority for a constructive suggestion. The UK has also lost sight of the goal. They are still scrabbling for advantages, they do not yet realise that they're in the late stage of the poker game where people go all in or bow out because the stakes are getting too high. This is it, and the UK is still playing games.

Mark my words, if there is an extension, it would be an incredibly short one, a mere administrative grace period. Nothing more. And it would not help the UK in any of its goals of "renegotiation" or some other bullshit born in the House of Commons.

[Demolitia]

Ehh.

EHhhh...

How did things ever get so far? I don't know. It was so unfortunate, so unnecessary. EU lost a country and we lost the EU. We're quits. And if the EU agrees, then we're willing to let things go on the way they were before.

---

Dur da da Dur da Da durrrrr... Dur da da Dur da Da durrrr.... etc.

I'm not so sure. In a no deal event, many people from both sides will see their livelihoods threatened. Lots of small businesses will run into issues and people will lose their jobs. I'm not sure we can call it quits when a drunk driver causes a car crash, dies, but kills other people in the process.

[Kronik85]

She has a better chance of getting reelected if she crashes the country with No Deal than if she compromised Brexit. If she thought otherwise, she'd have gone with a referendum months ago simply because that passes the hot potato to the people. So no, full sails for No Deal.
I could be wrong of course, fingers crossed.

May will never be re-elected because the Conservative Party won't ever let her stand again. This is the end of May's leadership career and she has known this for sometime. Everything she's done has been to keep the party together but she isn't expecting to be rewarded for it.

[LeGin Tufnel]

UK treats EU membership like it is a gym membership. They need to either act like it is an actual meaning part of their identity, or get the fuck out and stay out.

/sigh

No-one got it. C'mon film buffs.

[Demolitia]

I guess John Bercow remembered over the weekend that one of the most effective strategies at defeating a shambling zombie is to close the doors and lock them.

Still... brilliant move on his part. I mean, he had nothing to lose. He's gone from being re-elected unanimously to having zero friends, with his speakership all but sure to be over this fall.

He really did strike a blow for democratic principles though... meaningful votes should actually be meaningful and it was hypocritical for the government to say "we can't have a second Brexit referendum... the people have spoken" and then turn around and keep voting on the May Zombie Deal until it squeaks through. Even in the US, repeated voting on the same issue is generally not done.

Hopefully this compells May to do the right and obvious thing and include a second referendum in the deal... an up or down vote on Remain or the May dead. She gets a vote on it because the "substantive change" would be the inclusion of a new referendum vote.

Or maybe they'll continuing this farce and not do the right thing.

The problem here is that a second referendum will come across just as a 2nd and 3rd meaningful vote on the May's deal does. Unless there is a clear (2/3rd) majority in favor of remain or whatever else is on the table, this vulgar display of incompetence and bickering will continue in a divided country and parliament.
I'm not sure tying yet another vote on the deal + the promise of a referendum would help.

[Slant]

/sigh

No-one got it. C'mon film buffs.

Sure thing, I'll send my offspring around. He'll go to the toilet, where he'll find a gun we planted earlier... I know the guy who placed it, he's trustworthy, it will be there.. then he'll return, shoot you in the face, twice... make sure you're dead, drop the gun and walk out. He won't look anyone in the face, and he won't run... we'll hide him in Siciliy somewhere for a couple years, until things have quietened down.

How's that?

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The problem here is that a second referendum will come across just as a 2nd and 3rd meaningful vote on the May's deal does. Unless there is a clear (2/3rd) majority in favor of remain or whatever else is on the table, this vulgar display of incompetence and bickering will continue in a divided country and parliament.
I'm not sure tying yet another vote on the deal + the promise of a referendum would help.

Time's up anyway, I think. The clock will stop ticking this week.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Sure thing, I'll send my offspring around. He'll go to the toilet, where he'll find a gun we planted earlier... I know the guy who placed it, he's trustworthy, it will be there.. then he'll return, shoot you in the face, twice... make sure you're dead, drop the gun and walk out. He won't look anyone in the face, and he won't run... we'll hide him in Siciliy somewhere for a couple years, until things have quietened down.

How's that?

Thank you, thank you. A mini Mars bar to Master Slant at the front.

[Kronik85]

/sigh

No-one got it. C'mon film buffs.

Well it could only be The Great Escape.

/Edit:. Or not!