The Brexit aftermath thread

[Slant]

A Parliamentary vote to revoke A50 is entirety constitutional. Parliament, ultimately is Sovereign, not the Government. The current Government are only able to function due to an agreement with the DUP, without that, they don’t even have their majority of one. Without a majority, they cannot carry business and control the Sovereignty of Parliament.

Good luck getting that Parliamentary vote. If you do get it, A50 could be gone in a day. So far, you haven't even come close to getting such a majority.

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School boy error here. This is the Worst Timeline, counting on A50 being revoked when it seems like the most likely and logical path is far too optimistic. It's No Deal, a GE then a life time of BoJo as him and his mates strip mine whatever is left of the UK for everything they can get whilst blaming the poor and the vulnerable for why deficit is rising rather than all the tax cuts they throw out.

Unfortunately, this seems to be the more realistic outlook.

[Northern Goblin]

Good luck getting that Parliamentary vote. If you do get it, A50 could be gone in a day. So far, you haven't even come close to getting such a majority.

Because for too many politicians it's the nuclear option, to use when all other avenues have been exhausted. It's the last tool to stop no deal and not to be used prematurely.

Not because it'd be wrong to do, but because it would fuck their careers up. Self interested fuckwits.

[Pann]

Because for too many politicians it's the nuclear option, to use when all other avenues have been exhausted. It's the last tool to stop no deal and not to be used prematurely.

Not because it'd be wrong to do, but because it would fuck their careers up. Self interested fuckwits.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest that parliament will revoke A50.

[Slant]

Because for too many politicians it's the nuclear option, to use when all other avenues have been exhausted. It's the last tool to stop no deal and not to be used prematurely.

Not because it'd be wrong to do, but because it would fuck their careers up. Self interested fuckwits.

Well, to the annoyance of every sane person in Europe, they could still do it literally a day before the deadline. But of course, that wouldn't stop the chaos and division in the UK. I think only a few years of hunger would prove to even the stupidest nutjob that this was a bad idea.

[Skroe]

As I've written previously, post-Brexit Britain will have to rely on other routes of power to get its way in global affairs. And that doing so will be extremely expensive and challenging given the UK's resources. This was an argument for the EU in the first place. To be a power multiplier for smaller states.

Well on that topic:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...tment-plummets

The Infantry forces of the British Army are well below strength. Some units as much as 40% below strength.

All in all the vaunted British Army has a whopping 13,000 infantry troops out of a total force of 86,000.

For reference the New York Police Department has 38,000 officers.

Good luck with "Global Britain" Brexiters. You're gonna need it. To American fans of Brexit, stop pretending the UK of 2019 is Tony Blair's UK of 2001-2003. It hollowed itself out as a global power over the last 18 years. This is why the Bush Administration, then the Obama Administration, came to rely more on Germany and France.

The UK decided it wanted to retire to a sleepy English cottage to live out its days, or some maudlin nonsense like that.

[Iphie]

For me the greatest insanity is revoke and then immediately go for it again. Because legally, they can do it. They can actually get an extension without asking anyone by doing that.

I doubt that will fly, if I recall correctly there was a proviso that the UK did have to act in good faith, I think revoking and immediately invoking again in order to gain an extension is a clear case of 'acting in bad faith'.

[Slant]

For me the greatest insanity is revoke and then immediately go for it again. Because legally, they can do it. They can actually get an extension without asking anyone by doing that.

I want to say "But they'd lose all credibility"... but they have so little left, I don't think it matters much at this point. BoJo may just do it, it'd just be another set of stupid actions from the UK Government to embarass their citizens with.

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I doubt that will fly, if I recall correctly there was a proviso that the UK did have to act in good faith, I think revoking and immediately invoking again in order to gain an extension is a clear case of 'acting in bad faith'.

In legal terms, that is textbook "bad faith".

[Northern Goblin]

Nah they'd only do that if they think they can revoke, do a second referendum that they think would win, then trigger the process again if they did.

Though they'd find themselves at the same impasse they do now.

[Slant]

Nah they'd only do that if they think they can revoke, do a second referendum that they think would win, then trigger the process again if they did.

Though they'd find themselves at the same impasse they do now.

Agreed. I suspect the UK will have to both solve the national divide at the same time they figure out how to get out of the political corner they got themselves into. I don't envy your position. Apart from the Irish Paradox (yes, I capitalized it, I'm making it a term, sue me :P) this is probably the biggest logical problem you need to address. One begets the other, kind of, doesn't it?

[Voidwielder]

As I've written previously, post-Brexit Britain will have to rely on other routes of power to get its way in global affairs. And that doing so will be extremely expensive and challenging given the UK's resources. This was an argument for the EU in the first place. To be a power multiplier for smaller states.

Well on that topic:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...tment-plummets

The Infantry forces of the British Army are well below strength. Some units as much as 40% below strength.

All in all the vaunted British Army has a whopping 13,000 infantry troops out of a total force of 86,000.

It's an island with still capable Navy. No one is going to attack. They should reduce the standing Army and infantry even more and put that in to ships.

[Twdft]

For me the greatest insanity is revoke and then immediately go for it again. Because legally, they can do it. They can actually get an extension without asking anyone by doing that.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling last year confirmed that the UK could revoke Article 50 itself, without having to ask the other 27 EU countries for permission.

This could be done by writing a letter to the European Council, made up of EU heads of state.

The ECJ said the UK would then remain a member of the EU on the same terms - as it has now - including keeping its budget rebate.

But it did set some conditions.

The ruling said revocation should be "unequivocal and unconditional", suggesting that the UK could not simply revoke Article 50 in order to buy more time and then resubmit it at a later date.

A senior lawyer at the ECJ said that "appropriate legal instruments" could be used if a member state tried to trigger and revoke Article 50 in order to secure a better withdrawal deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47668466

[dribbles]

On the point of starving the UK.

British diplomat to EU negotiator:- We are a little worried that you are going to disrupt food supplies to and from the UK after Brexit. Is this right?
EU negotiator:- Zis is correct my British chums, we are not going to allow a single kilo of your British fish into the EU.

3 months later....

Brexiteer walks to his local fish 'n' chip shop friday night and sees a 2 for 1 Brexit special on cod 'n' chips.

Happy days and full bellies.

[LeGin Tufnel]

On the point of starving the UK.

British diplomat to EU negotiator:- We are a little worried that you are going to disrupt food supplies to and from the UK after Brexit. Is this right?
EU negotiator:- Zis is correct my British chums, we are not going to allow a single kilo of your British fish into the EU.

3 months later....

Brexiteer walks to his local fish 'n' chip shop friday night and sees a 2 for 1 Brexit special on cod 'n' chips.

Happy days and full bellies.

The problem (for those of us not involved in food export) is more the reverse:

https://publications.parliament.uk/p...om/129/129.pdf

Half the UK’s food is imported: 30% comes from the EU, and another 11% comes from non-EU countries under the terms of trade deals negotiated by the EU. Being part of the EU customs union has meant food from the EU can be imported with no tariffs or customs barriers but, as part of leaving the EU, the Government has stated that the UK will be leaving the customs union. At the time of writing, it is not yet certain what trade agreement might be reached between the UK and the EU, either for a transition period or for the longer term. But it is inconceivable that Brexit will have no impact on EU food imports to the UK.

If an agreement cannot be negotiated, Brexit is likely to result in an average tariff on food imports of 22%. While this would not equate to a 22% increase in food prices for consumers, there can be no doubt that prices paid at the checkout would rise. To counteract this the Government could cut tariffs on all food imports, EU and non-EU, but this would pose a serious risk of undermining UK food producers who could not compete on price.

Specifically, in the event of a no deal Brexit there will be shortages of salad, citrus fruits, dairy & pork, and their cost will be significantly more expensive.

https://www.countryfile.com/news/can...-after-brexit/

Can the UK feed itself?

NO says Meurig Raymond, president of the NFU

“We will never be self-sufficient in food production in the UK,” says Meurig Raymond, president of the NFU. “The population is rising and there is huge demand for crops that cannot be grown here, society has grown used to so much being available all year round. Can we increase self-sufficiency? Definitely.”

YES says Professor Tim Lang

“Yes, but it depends on what we eat,” says Professor Tim Lang. “We’ll have to cut eating meat down to once a week. We have to rebuild our horticulture and put more money into primary food production. There has to be a shift in how we grow our food.”

Happy times, happy times.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

Good luck convincing the UK to go back to wartime-esque restrictions on food usage, when KFC ran out of chicken for a couple of days it was damn near a national crisis.

[ranzino]

UK trying to become the next Venezuela. Maybe I'll be able to convince this cute british to come live with me instead now.

where to lure the ''cute british'' to ?
it may take some days into november to dampen the brexit enthusiasm, but reality is much to obvious to ignore....

[Crispin]

The problem (for those of us not involved in food export) is more the reverse:

https://publications.parliament.uk/p...om/129/129.pdf

Half the UK’s food is imported: 30% comes from the EU, and another 11% comes from non-EU countries under the terms of trade deals negotiated by the EU. Being part of the EU customs union has meant food from the EU can be imported with no tariffs or customs barriers but, as part of leaving the EU, the Government has stated that the UK will be leaving the customs union. At the time of writing, it is not yet certain what trade agreement might be reached between the UK and the EU, either for a transition period or for the longer term. But it is inconceivable that Brexit will have no impact on EU food imports to the UK.

If an agreement cannot be negotiated, Brexit is likely to result in an average tariff on food imports of 22%. While this would not equate to a 22% increase in food prices for consumers, there can be no doubt that prices paid at the checkout would rise. To counteract this the Government could cut tariffs on all food imports, EU and non-EU, but this would pose a serious risk of undermining UK food producers who could not compete on price.

Specifically, in the event of a no deal Brexit there will be shortages of salad, citrus fruits, dairy & pork, and their cost will be significantly more expensive.

https://www.countryfile.com/news/can...-after-brexit/

Can the UK feed itself?

NO says Meurig Raymond, president of the NFU

“We will never be self-sufficient in food production in the UK,” says Meurig Raymond, president of the NFU. “The population is rising and there is huge demand for crops that cannot be grown here, society has grown used to so much being available all year round. Can we increase self-sufficiency? Definitely.”

YES says Professor Tim Lang

“Yes, but it depends on what we eat,” says Professor Tim Lang. “We’ll have to cut eating meat down to once a week. We have to rebuild our horticulture and put more money into primary food production. There has to be a shift in how we grow our food.”

Happy times, happy times.

Sounds like Russia after getting hit by sanctions and putting in their own sanctions on food from countries sanctioning them.

At least Dribbles realises that going out to eat Friday night will be restricted to fish'n'chips.

[Slant]

https://twitter.com/EuropeanPenguin/...ghtmode%3Dtrue





Project Fear, I presume...

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

My car insurer wrote to me last year to tell me that they were moving HQ to Luxembourg because of Brexit.

[zealo]

Just pointing out here that the country Slant lives in tries to kill every one on the planet every 30 years or so and has just elected a bunch of neo-nazis to its parliament.

Just pointing out that we're now some 74 years away from the end of the war, and Germany has yet to try to pull such shit again.

Germany has changed as a nation since the 40s, the only question remaining is when certain parts of Britain will come to terms with that.

[Fuiking]

Just pointing out that we're now some 74 years away from the end of the war, and Germany has yet to try to pull such shit again.

Germany has changed as a nation since the 40s, the only question remaining is when certain parts of Britain will come to terms with that.

dont feed the sour troll..