I think we're just sort of blurring various UK politics topics at this point.
I mean if we're guessing, then yeah, I think this'll be worse than most flu years. However...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nglandandwales
Get the recent data from here, and get a simple average & total for this year & the last 5 years (Weekly Figures 2020 sheet, figures I DL'ed ended after week 14).
Average of this year: 11,889
Average of last 5 years: 11,727
Total this year: 166,444
Total last 5 years: 164,174
A couple of thousand deaths difference so far isn't that big a deal TBH. Obviously, there's all the deaths that would normally be occurring but which aren't (eg car or workplace accidents), and the big what-if - ie the deaths that would've occurred if there'd been no lockdown, or only one for the most vulnerable people etc - but w/e, counter-factuals can be figured out later. But insofar as we know anything for certain right now, it's the figures up above & from the Excel spreadsheet at the link.