Mega-Thread: Mueller investigation

[Breccia]

So let's talk about Giulliani.

As we've all seen, Giulliani has fallen from grace so hard it appears to have caused brain damage. His own friends and colleagues seem mystified by the once clever man being mocked by just about everyone.

Such clean-ups and reversals from Giuliani are nothing new for those who have closely followed his time as the face of Trump's legal team. But for those who've observed Giuliani for decades — both as U.S. attorney in Manhattan and New York City mayor — the gaffes couldn't be more out of character.

"I remember back when he was mayor he would deliver a two-hour budget presentation without any notes, and do it flawlessly," Giuliani biographer Andrew Kirtzman told NBC News. "One of the things that was so impressive was his extraordinary grasp of facts."

"That kind of precision that he was famous for is missing," he added. "His inability to stay disciplined with the facts, that has been the biggest surprise to me."

Paul Moses, who covered Giuliani for Newsday, echoed Kirtzman.

"He came in as mayor and mastered the details of city government very quickly. He knew the law, he knew where he could push it, and he took advantage of that," Moses said. "He just seems very imprecise now, constantly waffling and changing, and certainly that would not have been characteristic of him in the past."

Now I've been calling him "a senile old man" and I will continue to do so. But CNN"s legal analyst has a theory that happens to fit the facts: Giulliani is not crazy. He's just seen Trump's written responses to Mueller's questions. And he knows that Trump can't keep Mueller's report from the public. So, if Mueller asked "did you have business dealings with Russia while running for office?" Trump could either
a) lie and go to jail
b) say yes, he did

So knowing that the public will have the truth of the matter soon enough, Giulliani (not officially part of Trump's courtroom defense but more of a PR guy who happens to be a lawyer) is out on the TV trying not to twist the narrative, but to gently turn it, so when Mueller says "Trump was doing business with Russia during the election and he admitted it" people will say "Yes, we know that" and take some of the sting out of the reveal.

Which is not easy to do, it seems. Giulliani was too blunt and caused too big of a stir and had to backtrack, retcon, and otherwise attempt to deflect.

Giuliani has to sort of move Trump’s answer in line with what Trump said in the questionnaire, without seeming to. And it’s impossible. So he sounds ridiculous.

There's a fan theory out there that the Joker isn't insane but rather went through sane and came out the other side. Perhaps Giulliani had the same problem, in a fashion. Trying to connect two worlds that are at odds with each other -- what Trump says, and the truth -- is truly a daunting task.

If CNN's analyst is right, be prepared for the immediate future (Mueller could drop his report any minute) for Trump and the White House to change to "of course Trump was working with Russia, we said that, there's nothing wrong with it, we never denied it, especially not over and over on camera". This, too, is a daunting task -- the internet never forgets.

[pathora44]

I'm going to screenshot that when it happens.

I will petition for it to be made a National Holiday like Christmas and Thanksgiving where every American has it off and we can remember the dark times when Trump was president.

[Breccia]

The GOP closes ranks around Trump, desperate to keep away the consequences for all that stuff he did.

In this case, the GOP has simply refused to nominate anyone for the HIC, therefore, the HIC can't hand out subpoena's.

"But Breccia! Surely they're just slow on nominating people to committees. They're probably still good and sore from that spanking they got in November."

Nope. They got every other committee filled out. HIC? Slowroll.

The GOP knows how badly they've lost. At this point, they're trying to delay the inevitable. That does make them co-conspirators, of course, but at this point they know they've lost 2020 anyhow. A little extra unethical behavior won't change that.

[cubby]

The GOP closes ranks around Trump, desperate to keep away the consequences for all that stuff he did.

In this case, the GOP has simply refused to nominate anyone for the HIC, therefore, the HIC can't hand out subpoena's.

"But Breccia! Surely they're just slow on nominating people to committees. They're probably still good and sore from that spanking they got in November."

Nope. They got every other committee filled out. HIC? Slowroll.

The GOP knows how badly they've lost. At this point, they're trying to delay the inevitable. That does make them co-conspirators, of course, but at this point they know they've lost 2020 anyhow. A little extra unethical behavior won't change that.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the sharper minds in the GOP leadership are trying to find a way out. We know Nunes withheld information. We know that the now Democrat controlled HIC has sent ALL of that information to Mueller, whence force the Stoning has commenced.

They might be closing ranks, but I would not be surprised if it was to find a way through.

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Yes and no.
@cubby will back me up...eventually... if I'm right, but I believe the situation is, the Fifth allows you to refuse to testify, if testifying will incriminate you. Therefore, if you've been given immunity, you can't take it. Also, you can't invoke the Fifth to protect your father-in-law from prosecution -- valid or invalid prosecution. Cohen can still refuse to testify, but that's contempt.

As for Mueller-based items, that's a tricky matter. The Senate doesn't have authority over Mueller's investigation and vice versa. I'm willing to bet you're right, that there's some legal form he signed with Mueller that says "don't tell anyone because they'll tell Trump" that Cohen can use. That said, testifying before the Senate and saying "Mueller says I can't answer that question" tells us a lot about what Cohen told Mueller.

Pleading the 5th is a very misunderstood tactic, often misleading from what we see on TV. The only reason I didn't get my ass handed to me in law school on this very issue is because someone else got called on before me. Small favors.

Pleading the 5th means you feel that speaking the answer will incriminate you, and according to the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution, we have the right not to incriminate ourselves, which includes testifying. Now, as Breccia pointed out, if you have already admitted your guilt, pleading the 5th is irrelevant - unless this new testimony will implicate you in crimes that you have not yet plead out to (or have yet to be discovered) you are screwed. Truly.

So the medium length answer is no, he cannot plead the 5th, in this case, give those circumstances, and assuming he won't cop to new crimes that the SCO doesn't know about. Mueller not knowing about something at this late stage would be surprising.

Secondly, you cannot plead the 5th to protect someone else. That's entirely counter-intuitive to what testimony before a court implies. You may not WANT to testify against your father in law, but nobody gives a fuck, including the constitutional scholars. You testify or you're in contempt.

Finally, testifying before the Senate is it's own beast. You're under oath, but it's not a court of law. You can be held in contempt, but what that means down the road is species at best. You're still going to have to answer, however, and that answer, not matter what form it takes, will be telling.

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I have to say, the "there is no collusion" crowd sure is screaming into the wind today. Stone was indicted for
a) being asked if he talked to WikiLeaks and saying "no" because there was proof he did, and
b) being asked if he talked to Team Trump about it and saying "no" because there was proof that he did

That is a direct collusion chain. And Mueller has evidence -- as we've discussed, you don't arrest someone for perjury (or the House/Senate versions) based on feelings. Damn, I need @cubby right now.

Stone was arrested, for saying he did not help Team Trump talk directly to Russian agents, and lying when he said that. And Corsi ratted him out. That excuse is worthless now. Pick something else, such as "okay, but Trump personally didn't know about it!" You can probably hold onto that one for a few weeks yet.

Obviously catching up on answers - bad timing on my ban. Maybe (I really thought that Nixon tattoo was fake - holy fuck).

Breccia, imo, hit the nail on the head out of the gate. Mueller does not arrest people for crimes he feels were committed. He sure as shit doesn't arrest someone for lying unless he not only knows the person was lying, but can prove it - and more than likely that proof comes in the form of documents and not-just-testimony evidence. Everyone screaming "no collusion" has apparently forgotten that the rule of law requires probable cause to indict and arrest. Evidence has already been offered.

Stone is fucked.

Those crimes put Stone in jail for life - he will die in prison without a plea deal. His only chance is a pardon. Which is exactly what Manafort said he would do as well - not testify against Trump. He's in jail now, in a wheelchair. Stone thinks he's going to hold out and be the hero (were those victory signs he held up at his arraignment?). So far no one has.

[Breccia]

Breccia, imo, hit the nail on the out of the gate.

Welcome back. And, um, interesting metaphor.

We're not sure of Cohen is testifying or not anymore, but it's interesting to know he has very few options. And, if he wants to stay out of jail....okay he can't, but stay out of jail for longer, he's going to have to testify, under the Senate's version of oath.

[cubby]

Welcome back. And, um, interesting metaphor.

We're not sure of Cohen is testifying or not anymore, but it's interesting to know he has very few options. And, if he wants to stay out of jail....okay he can't, but stay out of jail for longer, he's going to have to testify, under the Senate's version of oath.

Thanks. And yeah, that's me typing too fast and trying to cover too much ground at once, lol. Fixed.

The citing threats thing is very interesting. He keeps bringing it up, and we know that everyone testifying against Trump is getting the full court press. Could be he's just whining.

[Halicia]

Funny enough, the officers who arrested Grant were stumped by this same issue, and just let him pay his bond and go because they didn't know if they had the legal authority to charge the President with anything.

That doesn't sound at all like what I've read. For starters, there was only one officer, and neither West nor Grant were confused about legal authority. Grant later stated, “Let no guilty man escape, if it can be avoided. No personal considerations should stand in the way of performing a public duty.”

Of course, Grant no-showed when it came to trial, and the judge conveniently overlooked him when it came to sentencing, but at no time did anyone make the argument that the law didn't apply to Grant, when in fact every argument seems to have been to the contrary.

[Flarelaine]

This gem from the Sunday Times would fit in any of several threads, but I guess this one is the best.

[Mahourai]

That doesn't sound at all like what I've read.

“The metropolitan police department actually stopped and cited Ulysses S. Grant three times for speeding,” she says.

After police hauled the president down to the police station, they were unsure if they could charge a sitting president if he had not been impeached.

“They ended up letting him pay a fine and walk back to the White House,” Lanier says.

- Source

Obviously you should take any documentation like this with a grain of salt, but still.

[Felya]

So basically Stone talking about bearing false witness is bullshit?

This is a guy with a Nixon tattoo on his shoulder... your guess in what he will tell the investigation, is as good as anyone else’s. I’m going with endless stone puns... his whole testimony... ‘I see you are not leaving any Stone unturned’... ‘You are trying to roll me, but don’t forget... I won’t collect any moss’... ‘you can interrogate me all you want, can’t get water out of a Stone’. The dude is fucking insane...

[Breccia]

So basically Stone talking about bearing false witness is bullshit?

To be fair, saying "I will not lie under oath" is kinda silly. Nobody should lie under oath. But what Stone is doing is begging for a pardon. Based on emails and witness testimony, Mueller knows Stone is a direct link between Team Trump and Russia. And based on their history, Stone probably would have told Trump personally and specifically about this.

Stone is not saying "I will not bear false witness against Trump's campaign". Just Trump himself. That's a shout-out to Trump for sure. He is going to have to be exceedingly careful about what he says on the stand. In the meanwhile, Trump knows what Stone told him. That's why he posted this and screamed "BUT HER EMAILS!" in a series of tweets.

The Walls are closing in.

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Stone goes on TV and says the witnesses against him are being forced to testify falsely by Mueller and that they hate him and are willing to lie under oath just to get him.

He then went on to say "I am 66 years old, I do not have a valid passport, I do not own a gun," Stone said. "They'll have all of my records. There was no reason to treat me like Pablo Escobar. I mean, what does Trump pay these people for?"

"Trump wasn't paying them," the interviewer replied.

"Oh right, shit," Stone concluded, "No wonder they were carrying out law enforcement in accordance with their principles."

[Smitzelplix]

This might have already been posted, but Trump is saying that Stone didn't work for him anywhere near the election. The link below has links to Trump's Twitter where he talks about Stone. Looks like Trump is trying to distance himself from Stone now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-near-election

[Dontrike]

This might have already been posted, but Trump is saying that Stone didn't work for him anywhere near the election. The link below has links to Trump's Twitter where he talks about Stone. Looks like Trump is trying to distance himself from Stone now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-near-election

What is this, the tenth time Trump has tweeted "Witch hunt!"? Just those two words as a tweet itself I mean.

[Belize]

This might have already been posted, but Trump is saying that Stone didn't work for him anywhere near the election. The link below has links to Trump's Twitter where he talks about Stone. Looks like Trump is trying to distance himself from Stone now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-near-election

Man, it's almost as if there was a pattern of Trump trying to pretend he doesn't know all the criminals he surrounded himself with.

[Smitzelplix]

What is this, the tenth time Trump has tweeted "Witch hunt!"? Just those two words as a tweet itself I mean.

More than likely. Used to he would include that phrase in a larger tweet, but has now just started using it by itself, especially when he goes on one of his multi-post rants, which he's been doing a lot of lately.

[Breccia]

Trump is saying that Stone didn't work for him anywhere near the election.

Oh, that part's factually true. Stone claims he quit the campaign August 2015, very early indeed (or depending on your read, Stone was fired for hogging the spotlight).

Irrelevant.

Nothing Mueller said has anything to do with Trump paying him, nor is that a requirement for collusion. Stone was the willing link between Team Trump and Russia, paid or not. If Team Trump helped Stone, asked Stone to do it, or in any way profited from willing help from a hostile foreign power, Stone's paycheck is not part of the problem. If Keanu Reeves asks me to kill Dennis Hopper and I do it, whether or not Reeves pays me changes little about what he's guilty of.

EDIT: Sorry, what I meant to say was "Stone was one of the willing links between Team Trump and Russia". Didn't mean to disparage the work of Manafort or the Trump Tower meeting. But I had to keep this post going at least 50MPH or it would explode.

[Dendrek]

EDIT: Sorry, what I meant to say was "Stone was one of the willing links between Team Trump and Russia". Didn't mean to disparage the work of Manafort or the Trump Tower meeting. But I had to keep this post going at least 50MPH or it would explode.

Sounds like you're hyped up on a little bit of that... what's that drug called? Velocity.

[Ripster42]

Stone is fucked.

Those crimes put Stone in jail for life - he will die in prison without a plea deal. His only chance is a pardon. Which is exactly what Manafort said he would do as well - not testify against Trump. He's in jail now, in a wheelchair. Stone thinks he's going to hold out and be the hero (were those victory signs he held up at his arraignment?). So far no one has.

Just to make clear for everyone: Witness tampering carries a federal sentence of 20yrs. And because stone used threats in order to coerce, he's likely going to find himself on the higher end of the sentencing guidelines.

[cubby]

Just to make clear for everyone: Witness tampering carries a federal sentence of 20yrs. And because stone used threats in order to coerce, he's likely going to find himself on the higher end of the sentencing guidelines.

Good point. The remaining of the charges also carry separate (for each offense) charges - jail time and monetary fines. If the judge throws the book at his, he could be looking at 40 years and millions in fines.

[Orbitus]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/no-esc...ped?ref=scroll

Basically that says the case against Roger Stone is so perfect, they don't need to flip him. Which is why there was also this post earlier: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/roge...ry?id=60646251

Already looking at a cooperation agreement with Mueller.
@Breccia and @Skroe