Roy Moores loss was NOT an outlier - GOP headed for heavy losses in 2018.

[Taso]

So basically ignore the Trump effect and ongoing battle over healthcare, taxes, and internet which is heavily not in the favor of the GOP.

The things the GOP are doing now are not suddenly going to become popular. Cases of sexual assault effect an in individual in an election but I don't see how that can have a major effect on a PARTY like you are claiming.

Well honestly I can’t predict. I’m assuming based off what I’ve read and what I know. That’s why I’m not worried at all about the tax ,healthcare and other stuff. These will always be trades and blows and counter protest. For example Democrats pass ACA that should have ensured a clean victory yet they lost in 2010. You would think with 2013 budget shut down 2014 would be another clean victory yet it wasn’t. And 2016 I saw trumps video I nearly became depressed that Democrats were going to win. Saying gee we had great candidates and this comes. So the reality is that these issues aren’t whats going to flip. Why I say sexual allegations is because that seems to be a real determination of wether a candidate gets elected. After that what else? People love to whine but when it comes to actual actions people are less reluctant.
And I would really love to go into deep discussion because it’s really fascinating especially when you start using the past in connection to the future but unfortunately it’s too much and again with nearly a year to go anything can happen.
Finally as for net neutrality it was grave mistake to just give it to the fcc. This should have been done by Congress and quite honestly that in it of itself their is far more to it then the media is pointing and it really should be a bi partisan Deal.

[Zaydin]

Not really sure how big a boost the GOP might see from the abomination of a tax bill they are ramming through Congress given that it's got an abysmal approval rating of like 21% (Which is lower than past tax HIKE bills) and a majority of Americans think it is weighted in favor of the rich and corporations.

[Varvara Spiros Gelashvili]

Roy Moore nearly won and he's a child molester. Do you really think the Republican base will not vote for their own non-molester candidates in 2018? The only way I see a swing is if Democrat voters have learned their lesson and suddenly swarm the ballot boxes and Republicans remain sluggish. This might happen, as Trump's win was a huge wake up call.

Do you honestly think Trump won't fuck up hard and that the investigation into collusion won't have an effect...

[Taso]

Do you honestly think Trump won't fuck up hard and that the investigation into collusion won't have an effect...

That remains to be seen. Comey said that its possible that it could touch trump but to the extent that people think it would is probably less. Comey also said trump asked him to find those people and it seemed that he had no problem but don't mind me mentioning that because I guess its part of fake news.

[Varvara Spiros Gelashvili]

That remains to be seen. Comey said that its possible that it could touch trump but to the extent that people think it would is probably less. Comey also said trump asked him to find those people and it seemed that he had no problem but don't mind me mentioning that because I guess its part of fake news.

Comey to find what people I'm out of the loop but I expect him to get charged with obstruction of justice but anything more is icing on the cake.

[Seiklis]

The Dems really put themselves in a hole during the Obama years. Part of it was just the counter movement but alot of it was arrogance. So far though they have fought back a bit through the specials with Doug Jones's election last week being the best of the group.

But that hole is still there. They lost a race in Iowa last week as well. They turned a 40 point hole into a 10 point loss which is good and all but they put themselves in a 40 point hole to begin with. So while the Dems are definitely energized, they're also really gerrymandered and they don't seem to be focusing on the governors races enough to prevent getting gerrymandered again.

Still they've only lost 4 state legislative races (Republican pickups) this year and all but one of them were decently excusable (Didn't run anyone in LA, lost a gerrymandered MS district that the GOP candidate quit on the party in '14, lost a MA Senate seat due to a strong 3rd party challenge) The NJ Senate race was straight up more or less but they're not losing too much. Even with a Virginia election, they'd still be back to even. If they can't maintain some of these wins and permanently shrink the margins, then even if '18 is a bloodbath, it might not make a huge difference longterm

Next big test is March 13th, PA-18. Conor Lamb (D) vs Rick Saccone (R). Republicans should win this one but we'll see. The district is right on the edge of where the Dems are getting

[Cthulhu 2020]

Way too early to talk about wins next year.

Never too early to laugh at how badly Republicans are doing in current elections though.

[Taso]

Comey to find what people I'm out of the loop but I expect him to get charged with obstruction of justice but anything more is icing on the cake.

Trump asked comey to find the people who were involved in the alleged Russian meddling. He was saying to comey to find out who in his campaign was engaging with the meddling.
As for charging of obstruction idk trump is never to late to break history and pardon himself. Heck he could do a Nixon and pence pulls a ford. But shifting to reality I see him fighting until the last bullet kills him.

[Varvara Spiros Gelashvili]

Trump asked comey to find the people who were involved in the alleged Russian meddling. He was saying to comey to find out who in his campaign was engaging with the meddling.
As for charging of obstruction idk trump is never to late to break history and pardon himself. Heck he could do a Nixon and pence pulls a ford. But shifting to reality I see him fighting until the last bullet kills him.

I think that would destroy Trump in the eyes of moderates. I mean his base will stick it out because "Obama would've done or killary kilton would done it" is enough to justify there support.

[Gestopft]

The Dems won't have the benefit of leveraging their entire media machine at individual races in 2018 like they have for the others.

There's been what...one other race that got major media time before the actual election?

[Deletedaccount1]

I think Moore was an outlier and I think Republicans are going to chew up and spit out Bannon for pushing such a terrible candidate in a seat that Luther Strange would won without a second thought.

By 2018, voters will have either forgotten about him or won't weigh him into their decision on who they vote for in their state. Trump is of course the elephant in the room but I still think most voters will tow the party line.

[Zaydin]

I think Moore was an outlier and I think Republicans are going to chew up and spit out Bannon for pushing such a terrible candidate in a seat that Luther Strange would won without a second thought.

By 2018, voters will have either forgotten about him or won't weigh him into their decision on who they vote for in their state. Trump is of course the elephant in the room but I still think most voters will tow the party line.

Bannon is vowing to challenge the 'establishment' in every GOP primary for the Senate next year, so we haven't heard the last of him. You can put money on it; his ego is too large to back down.

[beanman12345]

I mean that deep red Georgia district special election almost went blue a few months ago, and now Alabama, yeah I can see the shift happening.

[Seiklis]

Bannon is vowing to challenge the 'establishment' in every GOP primary for the Senate next year, so we haven't heard the last of him. You can put money on it; his ego is too large to back down.

Chris Mcdaniel could be Roy Moore part 2 if he beats Wicker in the primary. Dems are probably running Brandon Presley, though he hasn't completely said yes yet. Though with Thad Cochran in pretty bad shape might not matter. The Mississippi governor is trying to wait till Mcdaniel has to declare for Wicker's seat to let Cochran retire so he can name an establishment replacement

I'm not sure Cochran has that in him sadly

- - - Updated - - -

I mean that deep red Georgia district special election almost went blue a few months ago, and now Alabama, yeah I can see the shift happening.

It was Suburban Georgia, the kind of area that's giving the Republicans problems all of the sudden. Had the election taken place in October instead of June you might have seen a different result.

We'll have the rematch next November and see

[Moralgy]

It really wouldn't be surprising if democrats take over the senate and/or house in 2018 just as republicans took over the house in 2010(I think it was). If Trump survives 2020, he will be against a blue house/senate for four more years. We will then elect a democrat president and they will have control for two years, then they will lose the house/senate and we will repeat forever until the general public gets an attention span that lasts longer than a few months.

[Gaidax]

Most republicans would sooner gouge out their eyes than view any evidence that goes against their world view.

As a onlooker guy who sees US politics from outside as a clown show, I must say this comment is most amusing because guess what - you can say the same about Democrats.

It seems you people are more interested in strawberrying each other and not in doing what's genuinely good for US.

[Omega10]

If Trump fires Mueller and Republicans pass their tax cut before the end of the year, then I think they will be in a good position in the 2018 elections. Everything happening now will be forgotten, and it will be straightforward for the republicans to pass a feel good bill next year that WILL be remembered by the voters at the only time it matters - election time. My feeling, for what it is worth, is that republicans will pick up a few Senate seats, mainly because democrats are defending so many, and will also pick up a few in the House.

[Gestopft]

If Trump fires Mueller and Republicans pass their tax cut before the end of the year, then I think they will be in a good position in the 2018 elections.

A constitutional crisis and passing one of the least popular bills in decades will put them in a good position?

[Gaidax]

A constitutional crisis and passing one of the least popular bills in decades will put them in a good position?

By the time elections happen, the fools that is US electorate will forget about all that. Pleb attention span in US is amusingly short, so yes this is a good plan to quickly push all the shit out of the way.

As for this specific candidate in question, he is as shit as it gets and he still almost got through. Just shows the partisan nature of US politics where GOP could have nominated frikkin' Hitler there and he still would get a ton of votes, so all they have to do from now is put up a decent human being they carefully vet.

[Gestopft]

By the time elections happen, the fools that is US electorate will forget about all that.

GOP could have nominated frikkin' Hitler there and he still would get a ton of votes, so all they have to do from now is put up a decent human being they carefully vet.

1) Nobody would forget about a constitutional crisis. The people that won't care won't care, but it would still be a monumental event. It would occupy 99% of the oxygen in the room for a very long time. As for the tax cuts: most polls show support for the bill just below or barely cracking 30% approval. Obamacare- a bill which has been a rallying point for Republican support since before it was passed, and is partially responsible for their House majority- has never polled that low. The electorate's memory can be short, but it isn't that short.

2) Of course, the party wanted to put up a decent human being (Luther Strange, which was a dumb choice- strategically they should've backed Mo Brooks instead), but the voters picked Roy Moore. The GoP is having a major clash between what their base wants and what the party establishment wants. Look at Arizona: the Bannon-backed candidate that by all indications leads the charge for Flake's seat is Kelli Ward. The GoP can push for "decent human beings" but if the base picks more nut jobs in the primaries, they could be in for some more hurt in the generals.