Experts say that the payment could still be considered a violation because there is a strong argument that it was an unreported “in-kind contribution” — money that directly benefits the campaign even if it does not go into its coffers, in the same way that a building owner allowing free use of a meeting space would have to be reported.
If the FEC deemed the payment an in-kind contribution, it would be in violation of campaign finance laws for exceeding the maximum amount of $2,700 and for not being disclosed by the Trump campaign. That’s the argument being made by Common Cause, which filed a complaint after the Wall Street Journal reported on the payment calling for the FEC and the Department of Justice to investigate it.
“If [the payment] was money to keep damaging information out of the news cycle at a pivotal point in the election … we’re well within the realm of possible violations, specifically an excessive in-kind campaign contribution that was not reported and shared then,” said Stephen Spaulding, a strategist at Common Cause and a former attorney with the Federal Election Commission.
Cohen’s statement, which came in response to the Common Cause filing, may have already had an effect, however. Daniels’ manager, Gina Rodriguez, told the Associated Press on Tuesday that Cohen’s acknowledgement of the payment invalidated the non-disclosure agreement, enabling her to tell her story publicly.
Common Cause is not the only group that thinks the payment could have been a violation. Brendan Fischer, the Federal & FEC Reform Program Director at the Campaign Legal Center, had a similar opinion.
“The fact that this came one month before the election means there is strong evidence that this was a payment made in connection with the Trump campaign and therefore was an in kind contribution to the Trump campaign and would have exceeded the $2,700 contribution limit and was never reported by the Trump campaign as a contribution,” Fischer told TIME.
The FEC declined to comment. But even if the argument holds up legally, there’s a widespread skepticism among experts on this topic that the agency will actually take any action; In conversations with TIME, Spaulding called the FEC a “notoriously dysfunctional agency.” The commission, which is supposed to have six members, will effectively begin functioning with 4 by the end of this week, after Lee Goodman leaves his post to work in private practice.
That means that, for anything to happen — such as launching an investigation or declaring a violation of a law —
all members have to agree. That is unlikely, seeing as the panel will consist of two Democrats, a Republican and an independent.
Fischer noted that the Republican-appointed commissioners have often adopted “very narrow reading of the law” even on “clear violations” in the past.
“There is a chance the FEC will fail to enforce the law in this instance, that they’ll accept an argument from Cohen that this statement had nothing to do with the campaign and it was simply a personal transaction,” he said.
Common Cause has also sent a copy of the complaint to the Department of Justice, which could pursue its own investigation. This is what happened with former Presidential candidate John Edwards, when the government argued that payments to cover up the candidate’s affair with Rielle Hunter violated campaign finance laws. The Department of Justice has not replied to a request for comment.