PA-18 Election Thread: GOP Doubles Down on Identity Politics

[Stormspark]

The fact that the race is so close is bad for the GOP, win or lose. 2 years ago Lamb would have demolished.

This "election" is still using the heavily gerrymandered maps that were designed to basically stop black people from voting right? And even with that he's still in the lead?

[GennGreymane]

damn this is pretty close. like a few hundred.

[Crissi]

interesting facts:

1 precinct is 27 votes for Dem, 26 votes for repub.

2 others have exactly the same votes for both Dem and Repub, although only one is actually a true 50/50 split.

The trend graph has all but 2 of the counties going bluer.

[Dacien]

They actually do have results for the east (Westmoreland), they just don't have county-level data, so they can't make projections. But 97% of the vote is in from Westmoreland, whereas 95% of the vote is in for Allegheny. I would tentatively give this one to Lamb, although it's going to be damn close.

I'm reading now that Westmoreland and Allegheny are both 97% in, and the remaining two counties are favoring Republican.

Edit: sorry, remaining county. The other is already in and is quite small.

[Warning]

Washinton has roughly 300 votes swing left for Saccone, Westmoreland about 380.

[PACOX]

This "election" is still using the heavily gerrymandered maps that were designed to basically stop black people from voting right? And even with that he's still in the lead?

Yup. This is before the new districts.

[Mormolyce]

"They hate our family values"

Said the Republican Party in a special election to replace a pro life candidate who left in disgrace after trying to pressure his mistress into having an abortion.

[BrerBear]

This district was 20 points to Trump in 2016.
No matter if the Dem loses, a hundred Republicans with less margin than that are going to be shitting themselves.
They threw Trump, Pence, Ivanka, Conway, tons more funding, and a steel tariff at this district and it’s still this close.

[Mormolyce]

interesting facts:

1 precinct is 27 votes for Dem, 26 votes for repub.

2 others have exactly the same votes for both Dem and Repub, although only one is actually a true 50/50 split.

The trend graph has all but 2 of the counties going bluer.

It's pretty astonishing.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-election.html

Blue swing what blue swing?

Regardless of the outcome of this particular election, the trend is clear.

[Edge-]

It's pretty astonishing.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-election.html

Blue swing what blue swing?

Regardless of the outcome of this particular election, the trend is clear.

Yeah, even if Republicans manage to hold onto the seat it's a major shot across the bow for them. Still a win for them which is what ultimately matters, but not the kind of win you'd want.

[Dacien]

I kinda want to see it just be a dead tie, just for the sheer comedy of it.

[PACOX]

Oh I see then. My mistake. Still we're in automatic recount territory here regardless of what comes in now or very close to it.

There is no automatic recount.

[Crissi]

Judging by whats left, I think Saccombe wins this

[Orange Joe]

I kinda want to see it just be a dead tie, just for the sheer comedy of it.

Within 540 vote atm. This is going to be really close.

- - - Updated - - -

Judging by whats left, I think Saccombe wins this

I think lamb is going to get it by only a couple hundred votes.

[Underverse]

Some math:

Washington has 10% votes remaining, which means about 4431 considering 39884 have been cast. If the vote is split as it currently is in that area (46.75%Dem) Lamb will get 2071 votes, while Saccone will get 2359 votes. There is a 585 vote difference, and so the 288 votes in favor of Saccone will not be enough to close this gap.

Note: it just updated when I finished writing this, but the above still holds in concept

[Crissi]

Within 540 vote atm. This is going to be really close.

- - - Updated - - -



I think lamb is going to get it by only a couple hundred votes.

Well Werstmoreland is pretty much all counterd out anyways, but the free areas in Washingotn Im seeing are all in pink clusters.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, this managed to cement why I'll never vote 3rd party. sheesh.

[Shadowferal]

Thousands of absentee ballots won't be counted until tomorrow.

[Canpinter]

Now taking bets on how many "totally verified" cases of voter fraud with be claimed by republicans if the democrat wins

[Orange Joe]

Well Werstmoreland is pretty much all counterd out anyways, but the free areas in Washingotn Im seeing are all in pink clusters.

Is there enough in those last few spots to make up the gap though? We are at like 98% reported there isn't many votes left.

[Garnier Fructis]

Now taking bets on how many "totally verified" cases of voter fraud with be claimed by republicans if the democrat wins

I'm going to go with 107,000.