Proof is always need to prove a claim. Speculation doesn't change that. You don't know what his intent would have been if he was still alive. That is the point. It doesn't matter if it is speculation or factual. Both are the same. You are trying to speak for a dead guy on what he would do while restricting the evidence to only that which you think can't be refuted.
I'm not sure why you keep asking me what I think when it hasn't changed and you just referenced what I think. It could go either way. Tolkien could not want to involve himself or he could be interested enough to write or critique a script for Rings of Power. You even say you agree factually as you did before yet you still can't stop arguing as well. Speculatively or Factually it is the same answer. Refusing to accept them as the same just shows how you have to keep arguing just to argue rather then accept that we are both in agreement. Just as you did the last time you said there is no evidence or concrete proof to speculate on which means it could go either way as there is nothing to prove either side. Lol.
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And? He was still fine with people making adaptations of his work. You are only making a distinction between work to argue just for the sake of it. He was offering his work for adaptations before he sold the rights. It is clear that he likely wouldn't have cared about his work outside of his two books being used to make an adaptation. Those things being unpublished simply means he didn't finalize them into a first draft. Even his published work wasn't "final" as he even wanted to re-write the entirety of The Hobbit in 1960. He also used his unpublished work to explain things to fans in order to support the two books which further shows it is silly to exclude them for an arbitrary reason just because you, as a Tolkien fan, need to exclude them.