Just So We're Perfectly Clear, There Will Be No Wall. Ever. This Is Why.

[Breccia]

the Republican House not all on board with the wall money.

The problem, in that respect, is the Freedom Cockus.

"That's not how it's spelled."

Yes, but it's how they're acting. They are pushing for the $5 billion that the Senate can't pass and causing the split you describe. There are 34 Freedom Cockus members in the House out of 237 Republicans. A bill can pass if it has Democrats on board, or the Freedom Caucus, but it needs one or the other.

If the House attempts the $5 billion Wall funding bill, the Senate won't pass it.

If the House attempts the $1.3 or $1.6 billion non-Wall-funding bill, the Freedom Cockus won't vote for it -- or, at least, that's the noise they're making right now. Problem is, the Democrats probably would, so, the Freedom Cockus isn't relevant.

Until!

Riders are attached that the Democrats oppose. Then the Freedom Cockus is back to being relevant again.

The Freedom Cockus knows 2019 will be an interesting year for them, as they become irrelevant in the House. However, they also have a new weapon: their head, Meadows, is the only name Trump has floated for Chief of Staff who's also publicly asked for the job. As I've discussed before, that means they think they get a special favor, paid in advance, by Trump. And it could be "veto anything without Wall funding".

Trump has said there's no rush, and that he'll pick his Chief of Staff in a week or two. What else happens in a week or two? I think there's a very realistic chance Meadows is holding his acceptance back until Trump's check cashes. The Freedom Cockus are known serial obstructionists, more than the Washington norm, as demonstrated by their proven words and actions. They 100% side with Trump on shutting down the government over 0.1% of the budget spent on an item that won't work and which most of America doesn't even want.

And, a $5 billion vote is on the way. And [url=https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/420950-sen-kennedy-i-think-were-going-to-have-a-shutdown]this is Senator Kennedy R-LA on CNN of all places[/ulr] saying he thinks there's going to be a shutdown. So I'm not making a blind guess, here.

Of note: Kennedy also said “As far as I’m concerned if it’s shut down, it’s a pox on all of our houses. I don’t know politically who’s going to win or lose this.” Which is exactly what someone would say, if they did know who was going to win/lose in this, and they knew whose fault it was. Hint: it was the guy who said it would be his fault on live national TV.

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Trump: "We need this border wall to keep the migrants out! You'd better give me $5 billion for the Wall, or -- "
Migrant: "I have an idea. Give me $50,000 and I'll go away."
Trump: " -- wait, what?"
Migrant: "You don't want me in there, and you seem to have problems with the money. I'll make it easy. Give me $50,000 and I'll go away."
Trump: "You can't be serious."
Migrant: "I am bigly serious. Look, $50,000 is a lot of money to me, but not to you. The average salary in Argentina is $864 or so. $50,000 and I can put up with anything there since I can provide for my family forever."
Trump: "Do you know how much money I'd have to pay to give everyone in the caravan $50,000? That would cost more than the Wall!"
Migrant: "I don't think that's true. Let's say we use the largest estimates of the caravan of 10,000 people. And you give us each $50,000. Well, how much is that?"
Trump: "More than $5 billion, that's for sure!"
Migrant: "Um, no. Actually, it's 10%. Less, really, since I'm pretty sure you won't give $50,000 to a kid and let them loose in South America, and that 10,000 estimate is worst case scenario."
Trump: "What makes you think I'd accept that offer? That's extortion!"
Migrant: "Look, to seek asylum, we have to arrive legally with legal papers. Signing a contract to forfeit asylum, or even flat-out entry, for $50,000 is something that could be very legal and enforceable. And don't pretend you've never used money as a club before, or extorted during a business deal. China says hi, by the way."
Trump: "But it would set a bad President! We'd see more and more migrants seeking asylum every year, asking for more money!"
Migrant: "True. You could also pre-set a limit. And don't pretend that $5 billion would have built the whole Wall anyhow. You were also going to ask for more money next year, weren't you?"
Trump: "Of course!"
Migrant: "So it's the same thing. Or, you could invest the same cost into helping the people in Central and South America, so that the caravans don't need to exist. I mean, Mexico just pledged $30 billion to do exactly that so you could literally buy yourself some goodwill during the NAFTA 1.0.0.2 situation."
Trump: "Well I say what you're doing, demanding money or you'll cause major political unrest, is terrorism! And I won't pay it! Get out!"
Migrant: "Okay, if you say so."
Trump: "Now, give me $5 billion or I shut down the government!"
Pence: "ZZZZZZZZ*glurk* huh?"
Migrant: "I totally forgot he was here."

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And tying immigration to a border wall must be an idiot thing. But who is counting. . .

So is putting fourteen thousand, seven hundred children in concentration camps.

"How many are they planning on holding?"

Well, they're at 92% capacity, so, one thousand three hundred more, tops.

"Didn't Trump send troops down there who could build --"

Yes.

"Are they build -- "

No.

[Rysthruun]

Trumps either A: plating hardball (won't work) or B: thinks many of three people support him shutting down the government. Polls are FAKE NEWS. But trump isn't grasping that if the economy shrinks even a little (government pay drives a lot of it). He's fucked, his approval rate will sink. Especially if tax returns are delayed due to the shutdown. The economy is the only thing keeping trump from the 20s in approval. Funny thing is trump has "easy mode" for a president and still has messed up.

I think Trump will get the wall or some compromise of it, simply because it is something the majority of Americans want.

Trump won't lose any sleep over a government shut down on a campaign promise, especially something that invigorates Americans to rally behind him. In fact, I think his poll numbers will probably rise and at the very least stay the same. Negative Media coverage will continue to bolster his position given the poor coverage they have given the crisis on the border already.

People are tired of illegal immigration, they want government to hammer out a humane solution that doesn't include walls with flamethrowers, moats filled with alligators or an equally open border where people can just hop the fence any day and taxpayers are on the hook for all their woes.

Trump has more then the economy propping him up

[Dsonsion]

I think Trump will get the wall or some compromise of it, simply because it is something the majority of Americans want.

Trump won't lose any sleep over a government shut down on a campaign promise, especially something that invigorates Americans to rally behind him. In fact, I think his poll numbers will probably rise and at the very least stay the same. Negative Media coverage will continue to bolster his position given the poor coverage they have given the crisis on the border already.

People are tired of illegal immigration, they want government to hammer out a humane solution that doesn't include walls with flamethrowers, moats filled with alligators or an equally open border where people can just hop the fence any day and taxpayers are on the hook for all their woes.

Trump has more then the economy propping him up

Which alternative reality do you come from?

[Kiri]

I think Trump will get the wall or some compromise of it, simply because it is something the majority of Americans want.

Trump won't lose any sleep over a government shut down on a campaign promise, especially something that invigorates Americans to rally behind him. In fact, I think his poll numbers will probably rise and at the very least stay the same. Negative Media coverage will continue to bolster his position given the poor coverage they have given the crisis on the border already.

People are tired of illegal immigration, they want government to hammer out a humane solution that doesn't include walls with flamethrowers, moats filled with alligators or an equally open border where people can just hop the fence any day and taxpayers are on the hook for all their woes.

Trump has more then the economy propping him up

Yes, he also has the feels of his base to prop him up. Even if the people are tired of illegal immigration enough to want to spend a lot of money on it, they should at least take more effective measures, like hiring more people to check up on immigrants overstaying their visa. People just don't 'feel' safer through means like that, even if they effective. They need a big monument sitting somewhere eating up money that could go to veterans or healthcare, because that feels bigger.

[Sorshen]

Seems like the right place to post it:

https://twitter.com/bad_takes/status...73580985516032

Jason Chaffetz, speaking about Jakelin Caal Maquin, a 7 year old girl who died in the custody of US Border Patrol: "That should be the message, don't make this journey, it will kill you."

Died in custody... these people take pride in being inhuman...

[Dingding21]

Seems like the right place to post it:

https://twitter.com/bad_takes/status...73580985516032



Died in custody... these people take pride in being inhuman...

sadly you would think a nation that is the only worlds super power would have the money to be able to save innocent people would are seeking asylum and not just let them die like that. Instead the money goes to Trumps golfing and other things including more bloodshed

[Dontrike]

Seems like the right place to post it:

https://twitter.com/bad_takes/status...73580985516032



Died in custody... these people take pride in being inhuman...

"Both sides". Seriously, anyone that is okay with this practice are monsters of the worst kind.

[Breccia]

it is something the majority of Americans want.

We've been over this. Poll after poll, including recent ones, directly refute your feelings, which you chose not to back up with evidence. Liar. Ignored.

[Dontrike]

I think Trump will get the wall or some compromise of it, simply because it is something the majority of Americans want.

And you got this information where?

[Skroe]

The problem, in that respect, is the Freedom Cockus.
.

One way I read that gets the Trumpublican Party and Illegitimate Presidential Individual-1 out of this hole while saving face is something like this.

(1) House Republicans pass a $5 billion bill before the deadline. Bill is then Sent to the senate.
(2) Senate Republicans take the same bill and strip the $5 billion out of it (and set it at $1.6B or $1.3B. It passes and is sent back to the House.
(3) Reconcillation process kicks in. House passes $1.3 or $1.6B non-wall budget from the Senate with Democratic votes.
(4) Trump signs it while bitching about it (it has a veto proof majority), and kicks the fight to next year.


The important thing to remember is that the die hard racists want the wall, and Trump wants the wall, but nobody else in Congress actually wants the wall. The overwhelming majority of Republicans play act it out, because they know how gullible and ignorant their base is, and the use it to fund raise off of. The Wall in 2019 is Obamacare Repeal in 2014... an undeliverable promise that they never expect to actually deliver in.

In other words, just like dozens of gone-no-where Obamacare repeals that were in budgets, if Republicans get a way out of funding the wall to the tune of $5 billion, because they don't care about it and very much do care about the money going to their states and districts, they'll take it.


The wall is really an even worse and more obvious con for political donation money than Obamacare Repeal. And yet, here we all, and the saps fall for it yet again.

[Breccia]

(4) Trump signs it while bitching about it (it has a veto proof majority), and kicks the fight to next year.

Obviously, this remains the fun part. Trump threatened to veto every time. Trump signed every time. He can either follow through with his tantrum broadcast live and personally shut down the government, or, cave even harder this time and flail desperately for an excuse.

His options are obstructionist hostage-taking, or blatant cowardice. There is no middle ground.

[Skroe]

Obviously, this remains the fun part. Trump threatened to veto every time. Trump signed every time. He can either follow through with his tantrum broadcast live and personally shut down the government, or, cave even harder this time and flail desperately for an excuse.

His options are obstructionist hostage-taking, or blatant cowardice. There is no middle ground.

He's gonna have real fun too when he finds out the DoD's grand scheme to sabotage his ridiculous "Space Force" in next year's budget is to nominally place it under the Air Force (just as the Marines is part of the Navy), and then in the post-Trump era, since this is a very premature idea nobody wants (yet), not touch it at all and just keep it as what it is, which is Air Force Space Command.

It's not entirely certain yet this is going to be the Pentagon's proposal, but that's what watchers are saying, especially since Congress isn't interested in funding an independent space force just yet.

Donald Trump has truly been a remarkable benchmark for how powerful and how weak the Presidency actually is.

The irony is, his successors for many years to come are going to face the same fate. Obama's 2011 and forward budget proposals were so laughable to both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, and in writing their own budgets, they came to like it a hell of a lot more than the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s way of mostly adopting the Presidential Budget Request and tinkering.

It's going to be very hard for future Presidents to get their priorities funded with the order of things now. Today it's the wall. Tomorrow its something else.

[Felya]

I think Trump will get the wall or some compromise of it, simply because it is something the majority of Americans want.

Most Americans want universal coverage, not a fucking wall.

Trump won't lose any sleep over a government shut down on a campaign promise, especially something that invigorates Americans to rally behind him. In fact, I think his poll numbers will probably rise and at the very least stay the same. Negative Media coverage will continue to bolster his position given the poor coverage they have given the crisis on the border already.

Why should he cry? What’s going to happen if he doesn’t get the wall by the time he is no longer president? You are never going to elect him for office and he will cry into his billions? The wall is just there to let Trump get away with profiteering on his position as president and to keep his loyal 30% occupied, instead of sending out bombs or shooting up churches.

People are tired of illegal immigration, they want government to hammer out a humane solution that doesn't include walls with flamethrowers, moats filled with alligators or an equally open border where people can just hop the fence any day and taxpayers are on the hook for all their woes.

You do know the car and airplane were the most obvious reason why moats are not used anymore. While walls with flame throwers are as removed from reality, as spending billions initially and then millions each year on maintaining a wall, to save tax payers money. Make sure to tell American citizens whose land on the border federal government needs to take, that its to save them money and make them safer.

Trump has more then the economy propping him up

Yeah, we saw that during the midterms. Just about all of GOP was begging him to focus on the economy during the midterms. Instead he believed people like you and chose to make immigration the topic, by sending troops to stop a caravan and bitching about arsonist democrats. The result is the biggest win for any party in the house, since Nixon, and Trump ending operation “faithful patriot”, literally the day after the election. You are now two weeks from Trump needing a majority of democrats in the house, to budget anything. That’s what happens when Trump agrees with you, in his propoganda impacting most Americans. It didn’t in 2016 and it still hasn’t... you’re boy is winning due to the establishment. He has troubles winning the popular vote, despite the majority of support he and his supporters claim.

How does that rhyme Trump giggled through changed, since his midterms results speech... Mia Love gave Trump no love, and became one of the few republicans to win a midterm seat?

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We've been over this. Poll after poll, including recent ones, directly refute your feelings, which you chose not to back up with evidence. Liar. Ignored.

Their rhetoric needs to change. The deep state of electoral college want the wall, the people have voted repeatedly that we don’t.

[Ripster42]

Yeah, we saw that during the midterms. Just about all of GOP was begging him to focus on the economy during the midterms.

Just going to point out, the projections don't have "trump's economy" propping him up. They have his decisions and trade wars leading us into a recession.

[Felya]

Just going to point out, the projections don't have "trump's economy" propping him up. They have his decisions and trade wars leading us into a recession.

I think that true only after October. Prior to October’s downwards spiral, there was even talk of another tax cut.

[Edge-]

https://www.newsweek.com/crowdfundin...-guest-1261650

This is not the first time this has been suggested, but yet again on Fox News a guest suggested using a site like GoFundMe to crowdfund the wall.

I'm still super OK with this. Trump supporters can all donate towards the $5B wall they want.

[Felya]

https://www.newsweek.com/crowdfundin...-guest-1261650

This is not the first time this has been suggested, but yet again on Fox News a guest suggested using a site like GoFundMe to crowdfund the wall.

I'm still super OK with this. Trump supporters can all donate towards the $5B wall they want.

It still doesn’t change that the maintenance cost does not have an end point or how much land owners will need to be paid to give up the land the wall is to be built on. I think the whole go fund me thing, ignores the long term costs of the wall and why it’s not a good idea.

[Edge-]

It still doesn’t change that the maintenance cost does not have an end point or how much land owners will need to be paid to give up the land the wall is to be built on. I think the whole go fund me thing, ignores the long term costs of the wall and why it’s not a good idea.

It does. It's a purely financial view, the only view that Trump seems to have.

[Felya]

It does. It's a purely financial view, the only view that Trump seems to have.

Wait... I just realized that it’s for 5 billion, when Trump claims he is worth 6 billion. People are actually willing to donate money to a billionaire, to build a vanity he can afford to build by him self... and still be a billionaire? What, the what?

[Edge-]

Wait... I just realized that it’s for 5 billion, when Trump claims he is worth 6 billion. People are actually willing to donate money to a billionaire, to build a vanity he can afford to build by him self... and still be a billionaire? What, the what?

He can't afford to do that. How's he gonna stiff all his contractors and then threaten to sue them if they come after him for the money he owes them?