Only people with an IQ of 115 or higher can get this right

[Deleted]

Yeah, seems like you dont understand my thinking, but it is okay . Go hug your wikipedia.

It seems like you don't understand the question. I'll hug my understanding of Bayesian statistics.

[Deleted]

Haha you and your silly "knowledge" and "facts". You're so silly!

You got me </3

[Yoshimiko]

There's another easy way to think about it.

Remove ALL silver balls from the equation. You now have one box with 2 balls and one box with one. If you pick one ball at random, you have a 2/3 chance of picking a ball that has another ball next to it. People focus on the *box* part of the equation, but you're not picking one of 3 boxes. You're picking one of 3 balls.

Cheers~

[Deleted]

50%
I would say

[Aurrora]

There's another easy way to think about it.

Remove ALL silver balls from the equation. You now have one box with 2 balls and one box with one. If you pick one ball at random, you have a 2/3 chance of picking a ball that has another ball next to it. People focus on the *box* part of the equation, but you're not picking one of 3 boxes. You're picking one of 3 balls.

Cheers~

Except you're not picking a ball, you're picking a box. The problem mandates that the ball you draw is gold, throwing probability out the window.

Take the boxes, throw out all the silver balls.
Throw out the empty box as well since it can never occur.
Pick a box, what's the probability that it contains two balls? 50%

[Deleted]

50%
I would say

No, it's 66.67%.

[Forogil]

Except you're not picking a ball, you're picking a box. The problem mandates that the ball you draw is gold, throwing probability out the window.

Take the boxes, throw out all the silver balls.
Throw out the empty box as well since it can never occur.
Pick a box, what's the probability that it contains two balls? 50%

That has nothing whatsoever to do with the given problem, where you first draw the ball from the box - and then ask the question. In the actual problem it has 66.6..% chance of containing one ball - since it had 66.6..% chance of containing two golden balls and you have already drawn one ball, leaving at most one!

When it says "You pick box at random. You then pick a ball at random from the box. It's golden." you seem to read that we once we have selected a box we will automatically draw the golden ball if possible from the box. How does that work? Do you really mean we open the boxes and remove the silver balls ball during this draw - wouldn't extracting the silver ball make it kind of obvious if there were any? What do you think "draw a ball at random" means?

As stated before - it's not a problem with the formulation. It's a problem with understanding.

[Deleted]

No, it's 66.67%.

If you eliminate the silver box, its still 50% you have 2 boxes with golden balls. if you put or hand into one of them there is 50% chac that you pcik a nother golden one, its says if you pic a golden ball, so the is there a nother goldne ball in dose not count if you get a silver one , you just pick aother box until you get a golden ball and there for on its a 50% chance

[Deleted]

If you eliminate the silver box, its still 50% you have 2 boxes with golden balls. if you put or hand into one of them there is 50% chac that you pcik a nother golden one, its says if you pic a golden ball, so the is there a nother goldne ball in dose not count if you get a silver one , you just pick aother box until you get a golden ball and there for on its a 50% chance

No, there are 3 possible gold balls to have chosen. 3 possibilities, 2 of them lead to the next choice of ball also being golden (i.e. if you chose one of the G balls from the GG box, your next ball will also be G, this can happen in 2 different ways). Ergo, the probability is 2/3, or 66.67%.

[Deleted]

it's not so much mathematical how it is real, ya there are 3 but that does not matter, it starts if you get one golden ball what are the chances there is another in , so you totally disregard the silver ones, until you get one golden, knoing that there are 2 boxes with golden balls, there is a 50% chance that this hase one , or not in it

[Cairhiin]

it's not so much mathematical how it is real, ya there are 3 but that does not matter, it starts if you get one golden ball what are the chances there is another in , so you totally disregard the silver ones, until you get one golden, knoing that there are 2 boxes with golden balls, there is a 50% chance that this hase one , or not in it

You are ignoring the fact you are more likely to draw that initial golden ball from the box with 2 golden balls than the box with 1. I was wrong about this at first as well, until I saw the explanation from multiple people.

[Deleted]

Yes i am ignoring the fact, but that's because that fact dose not factor into the reality when I pick the golden ball there is either an another golden ball in it or a silver, ys there is 2/3 chance in that too if you look a it mathematically, the other well you can pick left or right golden ball from the box where are 2 golden balls, therefore, the 2/3, does not factor in , my opinion i am gladly admitting ima dumb . The only question is what are the chances that there is another silver ball, i know you will get frustrated probably by my way of thinking but i sill stand by my 50% , try it at home with someone, replace the balls with something else


well hmm ok i could be wrong, but i still think its 50%50 qould bet my arm on it

[DSRilk]

Let's number the balls: 1G&2G, 3G&4S, 5S&6S. Before anything is drawn, the possible draws are: A) 1G>2G, B) 2G>1G, C) 3G>4S, D) 4S>3G, E) 5S>6S, F) 6S>5S. If you've already drawn a gold, i.e. 1G, 2G, or 3G then you've either drawn A, B, or C. If you've drawn A, B, or C, then there's a 2 out of 3 chance that you drew an option with 2 gold balls. That's how people arrive at the 66% value.

If you don't take into account anything that came before the state of there being only one ball left in a bag, and you don't care about the probabilities that brought you there, then you effectively have one bag with a silver and one bag with a gold, leaving you a 50/50 chance of either. As the question sets up a description of all that came before, I don't think this is the way the question is meant to be read.

[Aqua]

Welp 112 IQ. Guess I'm out. Byeee.

[DSRilk]

try it at home with someone, replace the balls with something else

I described the actual draws in the post below yours. Hopefully that will help you see where the 66% is coming from. Basically, the difference between the 66% and 50% is context - where do you start counting the probability.

[Deleted]

BUT THEN THE PICTURE IN THE POST IS STATED wrong ( caps lock dont tan to backspace to lazy ) anywaysits bouth 50% and 66% defends how you defind the question in the head i guess , anyways pointles to aruge , noone will be convinced xD

[Vash The Stampede]

The correct answer is no answer as this is a trap to play on you insecurities about your intelligence.