Bloomberg: The U.S. Can’t Bring Russia ‘to Its Knees’

[Shalcker]

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...a-to-its-knees

The U.S. Can’t Bring Russia ‘to Its Knees’

At least not without setting off a global energy and financial crisis.
By Leonid Bershidsky
23 august 2018, 19:04 GMT+5

Time to consider the extreme consequences of sanctions.

The U.S.’s sanctions policy against Russia is evolving from trying to nudge the Kremlin in a desired direction to inflicting maximum pain. This is a slippery slope, and it’s time to consider the most extreme consequences for Russia, as well as the U.S. and its allies.

During a Senate Banking Committee hearing this week, a telling exchange took place between Republican Senator John Kennedy and the Trump administration’s senior sanctions officials.

Kennedy demanded to know what they would do if the president ordered them to bring the Russian economy "to its knees.” They wouldn’t give a straight answer, saying instead that the ramifications of such a goal would need to be assessed and that current sanctions were already aggressive. Irritated, Kennedy insisted: “But the economy hasn’t been brought to its knees!”

His frustration is understandable. The U.S. has levied sanctions, or said it will, in response to a series of Russian actions: the annexation of Crimea, the fomenting of a pro-Russian rebellion in eastern Ukraine, the attempted poisoning of an ex-spy in the U.K. and a string of cyberattacks. The list could go on — but President Vladimir Putin’s Russia has gone on doing all those things.

Treasury Undersecretary Sigal Mandelker said in her testimony that she believes Russia’s “adventurism” has indeed been checked by the economic pain the sanctions have inflicted.

That, however, looks like a statement of faith rather than fact. There is no evidence the sanctions have affected Putin’s thinking or plans. That he might like them to be lifted isn’t such proof.

Little Love from Investors
Cumulative foreign direct investment in Russia has increased in recent years, but it's still less than before Western sanctions hit
Source: Bank of Russia

Obviously, the U.S. measures are a nuisance on several levels. They have triggered a drop in foreign direct investment from which Russia, despite its recent economic growth, hasn’t recovered. Some big energy projects have been set back by at least a few years. Then there’s the damage to wealthy Russians and their companies. It’s unclear how many of their assets have been frozen, but a U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress this month put the number in the “hundreds of millions of dollars” in the U.S. alone.

Anyone would like such problems gone. But Russia’s unapologetic stance, and the absence of any steps by Putin that could be interpreted as a peace offering, show that the Kremlin isn’t prepared to give any ground to get the U.S. to step back. That creates the temptation in Washington to make such pressure overwhelming. Even if the Trump administration doesn’t want to go there, many legislators do.

Kennedy isn’t alone in wanting to try. Six other senators have drafted a bill that would punish investments in Russian energy projects, government bonds, as well as, essentially, any dealings with its tech industry that could facilitate malicious cyber activities. This, as well as the sanctions threatened against European companies involved in Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline Russia is building to connect with Germany, would be close to the extent of what the U.S. can do.

In the most extreme case, Washington could impose the same kind of embargo as it did on Iran. That would make it impossible for any company with ties to the U.S. to have any dealings with Russia. It could cut off all Russia’s banks from the dollar-based financial system and punish buyers of the country’s oil and gas.

Not even the most hawkish are willing to consider the oil and gas part of this option. Russia is the biggest natural gas exporter in the world and produces about three times as much crude oil as Iran. Removing it from the market would unleash a global energy crisis. Sanctioning all $486 billion of Russia’s foreign debt would also roil markets and cause deep losses to investors — including ones based in the U.S.

The Senate bill goes about as far as is possible without setting off such cataclysms.

Further restrictions against Russia’s energy and tech industries would likely mean reprisals for U.S. companies operating in the country. The biggest 50, among them Philip Morris International Inc., PepsiCo Inc. and Procter & Gamble Co., have sales of about $16 billion there, according to Forbes Russia. The Kremlin has been as hesitant to declare war on these businesses as the last two U.S. administrations have been to use maximum economic force against the Russian energy and finance sectors.

As the U.S. begins to consider an all-out economic war, the two strategic questions it needs to answer are: what it is willing to pay to extract any concessions from the Putin government at all, and how long it is prepared to wait.

Macroeconomically, Russia, with unemployment at a record low, modest inflation and $400 billion of international reserves, is unlikely to collapse before the U.S. unleashes a global energy or debt crisis that could prompt its allies to desert it.

If less than maximum pain is applied, Russia could manage for years with relatively low growth. That is the basis for Putin’s calculations. It bodes badly for the current direction of U.S. policy. If Washington inflicts as much pain as it can — and nothing changes — it will be a painful failure for the superpower.

[Glnger]

cool story, Russian propagandist.

[Independent voter]

Obviously, the U.S. measures are a nuisance on several levels. They have triggered a drop in foreign direct investment from which Russia, despite its recent economic growth, hasn’t recovered.


Sounds like it's working to me.

[Shalcker]

cool story, Russian propagandist.

Bershidky is anyone but Russian propagandist though.

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Obviously, the U.S. measures are a nuisance on several levels. They have triggered a drop in foreign direct investment from which Russia, despite its recent economic growth, hasn’t recovered.

Sounds like it's working to me.

"Working" means Russia stopping doing what initiated sanctions in the first place - like in case of Iran sanctions Iran agreeing to stop their nuclear program.

There is no sign of sanctions working in that regard for Russia.

[Shalcker]

Many of us believe that it would be of FAR greater interest to instead of sanctioning Russia, going after oligarchs and their fortunes, most of which are assets in Western democracies.

That already happens though - Deripaska/Rusal, Vekselberg and so on...

[Gaidax]

If there is a will there is a way. US already brought Soviet Union down and it was a much larger fish than Russia now.

Putin needs to pray Trump holds on to the office, because while he's there US will be more busy bickering between themselves and their allies than focusing its gaze on Russia.

[Shalcker]

If there is a will there is a way. US already brought Soviet Union down and it was a much larger fish than Russia now.

First, that was different time, and USSR had quite different problems with budget.
Second, USSR brought itself down, US role there is secondary.

Putin needs to pray Trump holds on to the office, because while he's there US will be more busy bickering between themselves and their allies than focusing its gaze on Russia.

Same as USSR at the time preceding it's fall.

[Skroe]

We are just getting started and eye rolling displays like this just underscore how much you fear the justice the US will dispense upon you.

In 2016 Russia attacked the US. We will never forgive or forget.

[Shalcker]

We are just getting started and eye rolling displays like this just underscore how much you fear the justice the US will dispense upon you.

In fact your "safe" options are already exhausted.

It's trigger world crisis or admit defeat.

In 2016 Russia attacked the US. We will never forgive or forget.

Well, keep remembering it for centuries to come then.

[Skroe]

In fact your "safe" options are already exhausted.

It's trigger world crisis or admit defeat.

Then it's "world crisis", bucko (and no, they aren't exhausted, lol).

For folks wondering what the Putin Propagandist' game is here, it's this.

(1) US Sanctions on Russia over it's chemical weapons terrorist attack in the UK against Sergei Skripal and his daughter, which also unintentionally killed a British citizen, went into effect today.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/25/us-s...ct-monday.html
https://www.rferl.org/a/u-s-sanction.../29455293.html

These sanctions terminate all foreign assistance to russia, ban arm sales, constrict the ability of allies who get funds from use to buy Russian arms, and restrict Russian access to US credit and financial markets. Significantly they also prohibit to Russia the export of technology owned by US firms. This is significant because US firms owns the intellectual property on much of the world's computer technology and historically countries that have faced this type of sanction have found it nearly impossible to derive a sustainable alternative. Further sanctions will go into effect in 90 days unless Russia opens itself to inspection.

(2) The US is prepping a new round of sanctions that may be legislated during the lame duck session or early next year. This would be a new type of attack on Russia: sanctions against Russian sovereign debt (Russian government bonds).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...including-debt
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...g-15-citi-says

The Russian government is deathly afraid of these and this is the one that market analysts have been cautious about. What it would do is domestically ban any sale or purchase of Russian sovereign debt(most sovereign debt is auctioned in the US and UK) by US financial institutions, and will sanction any financial firm or market outside our borders that sells or purchases Russian Sovereign debt.

In effect, it would mean that Russia would lose access to external markets for it's government bonds and would only be able to sell to Russian banks and Russian individuals within Russia.

These sanctions will be by far the most forceful in place. They will cause a rapid depreciation of the ruble, and Russia will be forced to burn through it's increasing limited reserves to finance its obligations. This kind of approach only works for a limited time, because eventually it will have to borrow from Russians at extremely high interest rates, leading to an inevitable sovereign debt crisis. It would almost certainly throw Russia into a deep recession in a quarter or two.

Basically the US would be engineering what is beginning to happen to Turkey, and what did happen to Argentina. Russia citizens could see a literal cash shortage at some point (though not early on), much like happened in Argentina and Greece.

These sanctions have been debated on and off. They're considered "a" (but not _the_) nuclear option (the larger nuclear option is throwing Russia out of SWIFT).

Russia has attempted to mitigate the potential of this happening by selling 84% of it's US Sovereign debt and turning it into gold, but that doesn't change the fact that it markets it's own sovereign debt and should the US sanction it, every bank and financial institution that wants to do business with the US (so most of the world) would engage in over-compliance with the sanctions to ensure they don't see themselves fined for violating sanctions. We can draw this conclusion because this is what they do with Iran sanctions.

These are coming. Either late this year or the next. And they won't be the last of them.

Everything Shalcker has posted in the last couple of weeks has been a usual (and pointless) propaganda game of his. Why? Who knows. Sanctions kicked into effect today and the ones Russia has long feared are looming.

Well, keep remembering it for centuries to come then.

We will. But The Russian Federation as we know it won't exist in a few decades. Russia is a fallen empire undergoing a series of classic imperial re-organizations. We're just living among it as it happens. From 30,000 feet, what is happening to Russia over the last 100 years is no different than what the Byzantines, Romans, Chinese and the Caliphate went through on larger time scales.

I eagerly await what the next fall back position for the decayed idea of "Russian Imperium" turns out to do be. Fact is though, a strong Russia cannot exist bounded by a strong(er) China to the East, a strong(er) and richer Europe to the West and America everywhere.

[Felya]

Can anyone list the things US and the world would have to do, to not have this issue with Russia? I’ll start...

A shift to clean energy. Something like the Paris accord, but with more teeth.
The halt of the Iran conflict, to open their oil trade.

With both of these and active anctions, it would permit Europe to both have an influx of oil due to Iran deal, while also building up clean energy, to no longer be dependent on Russia or Exxon. It should be understandable why the Trump/Putin coalition is so against it.

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In fact your "safe" options are already exhausted.

No, we just need a travel ban, due to the Boston bombing and Russian relationship to Chechnya, until we figure out what is going on.

[Skroe]

Can anyone list the things US and the world would have to do, to not have this issue with Russia? I’ll start...

A shift to clean energy. Something like the Paris accord, but with more teeth.
The halt of the Iran conflict, to open their oil trade.

With both of these and active anctions, it would permit Europe to both have an influx of oil due to Iran deal, while also building up clean energy, to no longer be dependent on Russia or Exxon. It should be understandable why the Trump/Putin coalition is so against it.

There isn't an issue. The original article is pretty much a cry for help to not systematically demolish the economy the author is deeply leveraged in.

I eagerly await sanctions on Russia's sovereign debt. Let's take away Russia's ability to pay their bills.

[Shalcker]

Then it's "world crisis", bucko (and no, they aren't exhausted, lol).

Ones you can do without damage to you or your allies that can conceivably change Russian position are.

(1) US Sanctions on Russia over it's chemical weapons terrorist attack in the UK against Sergei Skripal and his daughter, which also unintentionally killed a British citizen, went into effect today.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/25/us-s...ct-monday.html
https://www.rferl.org/a/u-s-sanction.../29455293.html

These sanctions terminate all foreign assistance to russia, ban arm sales, constrict the ability of allies who get funds from use to buy Russian arms, and restrict Russian access to US credit and financial markets. Significantly they also prohibit to Russia the export of technology owned by US firms. This is significant because US firms owns the intellectual property on much of the world's computer technology and historically countries that have faced this type of sanction have found it nearly impossible to derive a sustainable alternative. Further sanctions will go into effect in 90 days unless Russia opens itself to inspection.

Most of those things were already restricted before if you missed it, nothing changed "significantly"...

And "opening up to inspections" is easy; those sites were already previously inspected by OPCW.

(2) The US is prepping a new round of sanctions that may be legislated during the lame duck session or early next year. This would be a new type of attack on Russia: sanctions against Russian sovereign debt (Russian government bonds).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...including-debt
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...g-15-citi-says

The Russian government is deathly afraid of these and this is the one that market analysts have been cautious about. What it would do is domestically ban any sale or purchase of Russian sovereign debt(most sovereign debt is auctioned in the US and UK) by US financial institutions, and will sanction any financial firm or market outside our borders that sells or purchases Russian Sovereign debt.

"Deathly afraid" as in sold most of their US debt holdings to reduce US leverage? That kind of "deathly afraid"?

You realize that you would be hurting not Russia (as it already got money from already sold debt), but mostly Western debt-holders?

While simultaneously undermining UK financial market position, right when Brexit can prompt EU to create alternative platforms?

Have you also checked how much Russia actually needs those debt sales to balance budget?

In effect, it would mean that Russia would lose access to external markets for it's government bonds and would only be able to sell to Russian banks and Russian individuals within Russia.

Threat is more effective then actual implementation medium-term; neither is going to change Russian position.

These sanctions will be by far the most forceful in place. They will cause a rapid depreciation of the ruble, and Russia will be forced to burn through it's increasing limited reserves to finance its obligations. This kind of approach only works for a limited time, because eventually it will have to borrow from Russians at extremely high interest rates, leading to an inevitable sovereign debt crisis. It would almost certainly throw Russia into a deep recession in a quarter or two.

Umm, it feels like you're contradicting yourself here. If you ban dealing with Russian debt then Russia saves on debt repayment! There is no "debt crisis", it's free money for Russia you're stealing from Western debt-holders - they might even just buy it back through intermediaries with discount.

Moreover, existing reserves are several times higher then entire Russian sovereign debt and Russian trade balance is positive - and going to be even more so if ruble will depreciate - "sovereign debt crisis" is virtual impossibility.

Basically the US would be engineering what is beginning to happen to Turkey, and what did happen to Argentina. Russia citizens could see a literal cash shortage at some point (though not early on), much like happened in Argentina and Greece.

We already seen rouble value get halved in December 2014; no "cash shortages" whatsoever, 2017 inflation was unheard of before 4%, and 2018 inflation shapes up to be even lower.

These sanctions have been debated on and off. They're considered "a" (but not _the_) nuclear option (the larger nuclear option is throwing Russia out of SWIFT).

That's the point. The only options you have that can possibly change something are nuclear-level; and even then effect is not guaranteed.

You're afraid to use them because if after them nothing will change you'll have nothing.

Russia has attempted to mitigate the potential of this happening by selling 84% of it's US Sovereign debt and turning it into gold, but that doesn't change the fact that it markets it's own sovereign debt and should the US sanction it, every bank and financial institution that wants to do business with the US (so most of the world) would engage in over-compliance with the sanctions to ensure they don't see themselves fined for violating sanctions. We can draw this conclusion because this is what they do with Iran sanctions.

What i expect to see is EU going with same shielding of their institutions they implemented for Iran.

These are coming. Either late this year or the next. And they won't be the last of them.

Yes, more meaningless drivel certainly is going to come.

Effective sanctions? Not really.

I eagerly await what the next fall back position for the decayed idea of "Russian Imperium" turns out to do be. Fact is though, a strong Russia cannot exist bounded by a strong(er) China to the East, a strong(er) and richer Europe to the West and America everywhere.

Well, we'll see how long American domination will last.

- - - Updated - - -

Can anyone list the things US and the world would have to do, to not have this issue with Russia? I’ll start...

A shift to clean energy. Something like the Paris accord, but with more teeth.

We got nuclear for that part.

The halt of the Iran conflict, to open their oil trade.

It is already opened up; their oil is being bought by Russia and China.

With both of these and active anctions, it would permit Europe to both have an influx of oil due to Iran deal, while also building up clean energy, to no longer be dependent on Russia or Exxon. It should be understandable why the Trump/Putin coalition is so against it.

You could invest into Libya instead... wait, there Russia is supporting different forces then EU/US, and they seem to be slowly winning.

No, we just need a travel ban, due to the Boston bombing and Russian relationship to Chechnya, until we figure out what is going on.

So, you're supporting Muslim Ban? (as Chechnya is obviously Muslim)

- - - Updated - - -

There isn't an issue. The original article is pretty much a cry for help to not systematically demolish the economy the author is deeply leveraged in.

Bershidky living in Berlin is leveraged in Russian economy? What are you smoking?

I eagerly await sanctions on Russia's sovereign debt. Let's take away Russia's ability to pay their bills.

Let's take away your ability to profit from our debt, i agree.

[Skroe]

Well, we'll see how long American domination will last.

The rest of your post is the usual hand-waving nonsense I won't dignify with a response. This shit is happening. It's hurt Russia and the worst is yet to come. That makes me glad. And I eagerly await, in the post-Trump era, Democrats and Republicans alike taking even more aggressive steps to retaliate against our adversary.

As for "American domination", the liberal international order which is greater than any Russian-sourced alternative and is the framework that your petty dictator is a slave to whether he admits it or not, will endure long, long after you and I are gone. Nothing that is wrong with the LIO can and won't be fixed by what is right with it, and all Donald J Trump has done is serve to unify Americans on the importance of it.

In other words, in the post-Trump era, get ready for the the Godzilla of Democracy Promotion Initiatives in your backyard. This time with those military investments I predicted four years ago, which did come to pass mind you, backing them up.

Russia's mischef got it short term lulz and a long term strategic disaster. But your lord, Vladimir Putin's KGB bosses had him figured out 35 years ago when they moved him to East Germany, which was considered at the time a career dead end and a suggestion to change careers: he was reckless and mistook luck for skill, and never saw the bigger picture.

You don't either Shalcker. You and our sanctions "bother" you and Russia. But what China is winding up? That's the definitive existential threat to Russia's 300+ year claim to being a great power in Eurasia.

The 21st Century is once again validating that the two vast oceans to the east and west are America's most enduring strategic advantage.

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Let's take away your ability to profit from our debt, i agree.

That's... that's not how any of this works, roflmao.

[Felya]

We got nuclear for that part.

Now explain how this contributes to your natural gas pipeline, no longer being needed by Europe.

It is already opened up; their oil is being bought by Russia and China.

Exactly, not Europe... see the problem? See why Trump needed to remove the Iran deal, which permitted those other than Russia and China to trade with Iran?

So, you're supporting Muslim Ban? (as Chechnya is obviously Muslim)

The point is for you to admit it’s a Muslim ban. lol

[Shalcker]

The rest of your post is the usual hand-waving nonsense I won't dignify with a response. This shit is happening. It's hurt Russia and the worst is yet to come. That makes me glad. And I eagerly await, in the post-Trump era, Democrats and Republicans alike taking even more aggressive steps to retaliate against our adversary.

You're handwaving reality with your "it's going to happen and it's going to work".

It's not going to work. It is going to be your "hail mary" attempt which will still fail.

As for "American domination", the liberal international order which is greater than any Russian-sourced alternative and is the framework that your petty dictator is a slave to whether he admits it or not, will endure long, long after you and I are gone. Nothing that is wrong with the LIO can and won't be fixed by what is right with it, and all Donald J Trump has done is serve to unify Americans on the importance of it.

Keep dreaming.

In other words, in the post-Trump era, get ready for the the Godzilla of Democracy Promotion Initiatives in your backyard. This time with those military investments I predicted four years ago, which did come to pass mind you, backing them up.

Yes, spend more, waste more.

That's... that's not how any of this works, roflmao.

You don't understand how debt works for entities that do not have to rely on it, it's clear.

- - - Updated - - -

Now explain how this contributes to your natural gas pipeline, no longer being needed by Europe.

You are going to need gas even more with "renewable Europe", because gas generators are cheapest electricity source to cover renewable shortages.

And either way even deciding it now is only going to get you results decade or two down the road.

Exactly, not Europe... see the problem? See why Trump needed to remove the Iran deal, which permitted those other than Russia and China to trade with Iran?

Your conspiracy theory is noted.

The point is for you to admit it’s a Muslim ban. lol

Why wouldn't i? Everyone calls it that, Trump himself did... :/

You're weird.

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You don't either Shalcker. You and our sanctions "bother" you and Russia. But what China is winding up? That's the definitive existential threat to Russia's 300+ year claim to being a great power in Eurasia.

Current shape of events makes it pretty clear - Russia is going to get most of Central Asia and Middle East, China is going to get Asia and some Africa for "spheres of influence" in this century.

The 21st Century is once again validating that the two vast oceans to the east and west are America's most enduring strategic advantage.

Yes, you'll be holed up on your continent.

[Felya]

You are going to need gas even more with "renewable Europe", because gas generators are cheapest electricity source to cover renewable shortages.

What shortages? I already said that trading with Iran would have been a buffer as they finalize infrastructure.

And either way even deciding it now is only going to get you results decade or two down the road.

Even you admit what I say gets results.

Your conspiracy theory is noted.

Noted? That I repeated what you said? Strange... (edit: I literally said “Exactly” in that reply and you called it a conspiracy theory. That is gold Jerry! GOLD!)

Why wouldn't i? Everyone calls it that, Trump himself did... :/

No, he denied it and claimed he was fighting ISIS with Putin. Saying that Russia needs to be included on a Muslim ban, is kind of an example of the sort of joke your argument is. Russia, on a Muslim ban. Boy, your suggestions are loony.

You're weird.

No, I just know your script.

[Shalcker]

What shortages? I already said that trading with Iran would have been a buffer as they finalize infrastructure.

Well, Russia is going to be a lot more reliable partner to Iran then Europe, so we got that threat covered.

Even you admit what I say gets results.

It is going to happen eventually if you want to reign in global warming - not because it is going to hurt Russia. And Russia has enough alternatives to slowly switch as it happens.

Noted? That I repeated what you said? Strange... (edit: I literally said “Exactly” in that reply and you called it a conspiracy theory. That is gold Jerry! GOLD!)

I called this conspiracy theory - "See why Trump needed to remove the Iran deal, which permitted those other than Russia and China to trade with Iran?"

As you're assuming US-Russia conspiracy with far-reaching 3D chess moves here where none is required - your hawks always wanted to get Iran.

Why would you promote this myth of Trump's cunning plans? :/

[Felya]

Well, Russia is going to be a lot more reliable partner to Iran then Europe, so we got that threat covered.

Again, this has nothing to do with what you quoted. It just reaffirms what you called a conspiracy. How does nuclear and trade with Iran, help Russia over come a Europe that is not reliant on its natural gas pipeline?

It is going to happen eventually if you want to reign in global warming - not because it is going to hurt Russia. And Russia has enough alternatives to slowly switch as it happens.

What? No, it won’t happen eventually. Trump just left the Paris accord last year. Clean energy has a lot of benefits to their native countries. Including being self reliant, which is why you have an issue with it. The befits are wide ranging, from ecology to domestic and foreign policy. But, there are a lot of those who fear it and would go to far lengths to stop it, like leaving the Paris accord, even though being ahead of schedule to being done.

I called this conspiracy theory - "See why Trump needed to remove the Iran deal, which permitted those other than Russia and China to trade with Iran?"

Who is Trump’s thought conspiring with? Just because Trump wants better relations with Russia, doesn’t mean he is conspiring. Why do you think Trump doing something, to better relation with Russia, would need conspiring? Do you want to tell us something?

As you're assuming US-Russia conspiracy with far-reaching 3D chess moves here where none is required - your hawks always wanted to get Iran.

No, that’s 100% and I want to hear more about it. I am saying Trump is just trying to have better relationship with Russia. Is this not in your playbook?

Why would you promote this myth of Trump's cunning plans? :/

What? I can quote Trump saying he wants better relations with Russia. You seem confused...

[Endus]

In fact your "safe" options are already exhausted.

It's trigger world crisis or admit defeat.

Frankly, the world's already in crisis. Russian aggression is a large factor in that crisis.

Also, some of us grew up when the USSR was still a "thing"; the world does not "need" Russia in any respect whatsoever. The "crisis" would just require some rejiggering of energy production. Sure, it would cost some money, but that's all we're talking about. And the Western world isn't hurting that bad for money.


We've entered a global state where warfare isn't fought with violence, it's largely fought with economics and information. What you're describing is Russia trying to start such a war, and that the rest of the Western world has to decide whether to fight back in the same manner, or capitulate. And suggesting we won't fight, because it's hard.

That's an argument that's basically never worked out.

Especially when modern Russia is far weaker than the USSR was. The USSR was a superpower, able to go toe-to-toe with the USA. Russia is not. It's economy is struggling (GDP per capita sitting right around that of Greece, whose economy famously crashed). Russia desperately does not want an economic war, because it cannot afford to lose one.