BFA subs, and someone's probably getting fired

[Mafic]

Oof, that's rough. Looks like a lot of people doing the "WoD 2.0" chant aren't too far off the mark.

People owe use an apology to be honest!

But yeah WoW is in maintenance mode at the moment.

[andrewjoy]

I did some back of the envelope calculations and statistics ( pulling from relmstats etc ) a few weeks ago and came up with a similar number, for US and EU combined for active accounts with at least 1 lvl 120.

I would not be surprised if its close.

I think FF14 prob has close to that.

[Teri]

and to go by just numbers, Blizzard sold 3.4 million copies but only had 3.2 million subs, that means that 200 000 persons bought the expansion but never played it.

I pre ordered BfA for Allied races back in Legion, I have not subbed during BfA, and I am not alone in this thread.

People exist that changed their mind or wait things out.

[Mirishka]

Not supporting BfA here, but watching all those random game bashing posters, posting over and over again in every thread that is negative for the game, either be justified or a lie, its just pathetic....BfA surely has big flaws, but waiting in the corner for posting all the time, is a worse flaw that does not exist only in the fantastic sphere of a game.

It really is. The obsession with WoW subs that people have is just weird.

[SirKickBan]

To be honest. A Data leak through the API isn't much evidence either if we don't know the total anyways.

I mean, huge news to see the number so low but we don't know about factors. This is why Blizzard after all runs in quarter periods.

It does fall in line with other estimates, however. Look at https://realmpop.com/us.html, filter to level 120 characters only, and it's around 1.7 million. So either this API leak was, indeed, only for one region, and in that region nearly every single person who hit level 120 stayed subbed, and never leveled an alt to 120, or.. It was for both NA and EU (Which has about 2 million max-level characters), and more than half of those max-level characters are either alts, or unsubscribed players.

And, as a personal anecdote, more than half my friends who were playing WoW during Legion.. In fact, more like three quarters, have unsubscribed themselves. Though given we're all RPers, that might be something of a slippery-slope effect, where one migrating to FFXIV draws another, which draws another, etc., regardless of WoW's quality.

[Mirishka]

I guess you just seized on a single Tweet and treated it like gospel. Funny thing is if you read further WeakAuruas states:



and

Of course they ignored that stuff. That stuff doesn't propogate the whole 'TEE HEE WOW SUBS R DOWN LOL WUT' mental obsession people have nearly as well as the first tweet.

[Esotaric]

1.7 million sub currently. didn't WOD the garbage expansion had 5 mil sub?

[Vaelorian]

The only way to make non-repetitive content to last more is time-gating, thing that most people doesn't want at all.

I actually said that time gating stuff is not the way. And time gating is not required either.
With time gating that is a negative I mean this:
Billy wants to acquire a certain glove. That glove is a recipe behind a huge reputation. This reputation is only attainable by doing a maximum of 3 dailies a day.

Positive would be:
Billy wants to acquire a certain glove. That glove is a recipe that drops in dungeon X. When that recipe has dropped, the materials required are a lot of SOULBOUND items. In theory and when the stars align.... he could complete his glove tomorrow. But most people will complete this glove within 1 month of grinding.

[Deleted]

I just want to point out one thing according to this post on reddit WoW in Korea is basically dead.

OP said that " It is actually impossible to queue for rated battle grounds and 40v40 battle grounds. Some have waited for 4 hours and it simply did not open."

[Mafic]

1.7 million sub currently. didn't WOD the garbage expansion had 5 mil sub?

WoD will end up being more successful than Battle for Abilities if nothing changes.

[Doomchicken]

Not really. Just sounds like a bit of a cautionary disclaimer. However if you look at the trend of the game, with the last amount of reported subscribers being 5.5, and them selling 3.4 copies of BFA, it lines up. Add that together with the API data from Blizzard.

Except it doesn't line up. It's first day sales not overall sales. BFA had more first day sales than Wrath did. Wrath only had 2.8 mill https://www.statista.com/statistics/...on-pack-sales/. Does this expansion have more players than Wrath? I'd go out on a limb and assume no.

The problem with people assuming current subscriptions are failing to grasp the one simple concept when trying to even begin analyzing the current numbers. That concept is the majority of the customers are not them. The majority of WoWs customers has always skewed more casual than what the average mmo champ or reddit user is, and those players generally only let their subs lapse when there is no content, or the content is too difficult or too in-accessible.

Why do you think WoD was so poorly received? It wasn't because of the lore. It certainly wasn't because of the theme, or else they wouldn't of had such a large return and as much as the pro flying circle jerkers like to tell you it wasn't flying either. It was because there was almost literally no content. Same deal with Cata. Large launch huge drop off. The average player didn't like the dungeon difficulty, despite if you asked the people here they'd tell you the dungeons weren't "too difficult" or were awesome because of the difficulty.

[IceMan1763]

The RNG infested loot system and max level grinds they've implemented over the past few expansions have had completely predictable effects. They increased play time in the short term and then burnt out a massive amount of players who realized they are part of an experiment to see how high Blizz can get MAUs using skinner box design. It's just flat out not a recipe for an enoyable game. The Heart of Azeroth is literally a loot based gear timegate to hold you back from fully utilizing other high level pieces of gear you have acquired. There is absolutely nothing redeeming or fun about the Heart of Azeroth and the few players left would cheer if it was completely untied from their other azerite pieces. That alone should prove the futility and error in the thought process when they designed the system, but the current Blizzard team has such a short sighted mentality in how they're designing some of these "player retention" systems.

Here's a hint: Concentrate on why a feature is going to be FUN rather than how it will "retain players". Fun is the best retention method.

[Veldoranz]

Imagine taking this as 100% accurate and coming here to bash BFA oof.

Game and world feels alive to me. I've never understood people's obsession with sub numbers. We don't need to know, and it is only brought up in speculation or to bash current game.

Sub numbers matter because it's a reflection of how much money Blizzard is going to invest in it, and how much they are going to prioritize it as a product. There is a big difference between WoW @ 10 million subs, and WoW @ 2 million subs.

The unfortunate reality, if these numbers are to be believed, is that we could see a sharp decline in quality, and a sharp increase in paid services to offset the loss of subscribers. This is likely a big reason why we started to see so many shop mounts around Cataclysm onward, as Blizzard/Activision and their investors needed to offset the millions in loss somehow. WoW is more profitable then ever for a reason, and it's not because the game has WotLK size sub numbers.

[George Costanza]

The number is on the low end, but within the range.

It is well known that US/EU only has 4 million players. China has 8 million players.

Is that you towelliee?

[Deleted]

It's hard to put a finger on exact numbers.This is far from the real sub right now because this doesn't count China.Also keep in mind we have to know if it's counting paid subs and wow tokens.

Blizzard stated it was 10 mil at launch(maybe lying) but to drop to 1.7mil without noticing much change in game is hard to believe.
I'm not defending blizzard I myself am not subbed at moment but going on making statements "wow is dead","classic will be 10 times more popular then bfa" is just pure bs.

[Mafic]

I just want to point out one thing according to this post on reddit WoW in Korea is basically dead.

OP said that " It is actually impossible to queue for rated battle grounds and 40v40 battle grounds. Some have waited for 4 hours and it simply did not open."

WoW PVP in Korea used to be very competitive because PVP gearing made sense. Starting with WoD, Legion and BFA it went down hill. Of course the Korean market has different tastes now (eg. mobiles RPGs) like L2 Revolution so things change.

[Vaelorian]

1.7 million sub currently. didn't WOD the garbage expansion had 5 mil sub?

Well that is not fair. If you see a bad expansion... and you always did have fun.... you could still be sticking to that game regardless if the previous expansions were better. So... after WoD, Legion came. Which is generally a positive expansion. So while we do not know if Legion had a higher amount of subs then WoD did.... It is logical that subs will either stay or go down. So it stays the same if the quality is good enough. It will drop if the quality is lower. It will never go up unless a miracle happens.

[Selah]

Not really. Just sounds like a bit of a cautionary disclaimer. However if you look at the trend of the game, with the last amount of reported subscribers being 5.5, and them selling 3.4 copies of BFA, it lines up. Add that together with the API data from Blizzard.

You mean in 2015? During WoD, that is no way accurate for two expansions and three years later. Not to mention you're trying to compare subs to day one boxes sold, NOT total boxes sold nor currently subbed. Mind you that the 3.4 million is the "fastest" selling expansion in the games history. That means, out the gate BfA outsold ALL prior expansion on day one. Now admittedly that number is skewed because pre-orders are counted in that number but it remains that this expansion had the highest day one players than any other expansion.

https://investor.activision.com/news...orld-warcraftr

[Mazinger-Z]

Oh god, are we actually pretending legions class hall campaigns on launch were long time consuming content? Seriously?

Not time consuming unless you count the mission table do 5 of 5 blockers.

They distracted the player by forcing them to level another character to experience the story. Unless you were poopsocking game that is at least 3 days worth of leveling / character not counting the mission tables dragging out the storyline.

It was clever in that it got players who were interested in doing them to play alts and interweave that behavior with them playing their main characters. Some people could even decide to switch and have to do all the work to gear up again.

Those Avenues don't exist in battle for Azeroth.

You get exactly two stories and you're unlikely to switch to the other faction because all your friends and associations are on the fation you already leveled up on.

[Wilfire]

Even if the reported numbers are inaccurate, there's still the fact that the sub base was cut almost in half in just 2 months. And 3.2 mil subs is a HUGE sample. But of course Blizzard shills will continue to ignore basics statistics. You aren't doing ANYONE a favor by praising BfA's game design. The more people complain, the faster Blizzard will go into damage control mode and give us Legion v2.