Nov 6, 2018 - Midterms *MEGA* Thread

[Bodakane]

Yeah, there’s honestly a few easy ways to make FL blue (or at least keep it a competitive purple). #1 is to value and restore people’s voting rights in the state, and there was major headway on this with restoring voting rights to felons who have served their time. Last estimate I saw put this at around 60k votes for Democrats, net, enough to flip the race to Nelson and Gillum if they had been able to vote in 2018, it looks like. If Florida (and SCOTUS) had actually valued the votes of Floridians, we would have had President Gore in 2000, and possibly 2004, which would have meant FL voting Democrat for President would be the norm for the last 20 years, rather than the exception.

#2 is to actually take Florida seriously, which Nelson (and Clinton in 2016) kind of didn’t, as @Skroe keeps saying. This is a larger problem with the Democratic Party as a whole, where they don’t take races as seriously as the should, but it looks like the house and Governors have at least learned this lesson. Hopefully Senators and the nominee for president in 2020 will too. Gillum I think did take his race seriously, but he’s also at a disadvantage because racism.

#3 is changing demographics, but Democrats shouldn’t rely on that. Demographics will change Florida, Texas, etc. blue slower than the party thinks, in my opinion.

I also think another problem is that we are easy to gerrymander.

I traveled to LA & SF for the first time ever earlier this year, and was surprised at how neighborhoods worked there. In FL, there's clear delineations between neighborhoods and further between living areas and shopping/businesses. In LA everything just runs together.

[Hobb]

@Hobb - are those mail in ballots changeable after the deadline like the other votes? How does that work if they are postmarked after the date?

It really depends on the county in some you can change as much as you want up until close of the polls on election day. In others its up to 5 days after the election.

The republican's law suit though only focuses on 2 of Arizona's counties, Maricopa and Pima which allows it up to 5 days after the election. Thing to note is both of the counties are large democrat counties and those are the ones the republicans are wanting stop, not the other ones that allow it which are rural and normally vote republican.

[PACOX]

Ah the intricacies of the American voting process. Election day is is just the last day to vote, and in some places its not.

Whoever is up at the end of the night might not be up at the end of the week and the person who won does take office for a couple of months.

POTUS's is showing how little he paid attention in civics class again.

[cubby]

It really depends on the county in some you can change as much as you want up until close of the polls on election day. In others its up to 5 days after the election.

The republican's law suit though only focuses on 2 of Arizona's counties, Maricopa and Pima which allows it up to 5 days after the election. Thing to note is both of the counties are large democrat counties and those are the ones the republicans are wanting stop, not the other ones that allow it which are rural and normally vote republican.

I would love to be in the court when the GOP makes their case. Watch the judge try not to laugh while the GOP attys answer that question. "Why just those counties?".

Fucking deplorable GOP voting suppressors.

[Fahrenheit]

Republicans in Florida "STOP COUNTING THESE BALLOTS WTF?!?!?! CHEATING!!"
Republicans in Arizona (until yesterday) "STOP COUNTING THESE BALLOTS WTF?!?!?! CHEATING!!"
Republicans in Arizona (today) "EVERY VOTE MUST BE COUNTED WTF?!?!?! CHEATING!!"

Democrats in both places "Yeah, every vote should count, duh..."

[Kujako]

Republicans in Florida "STOP COUNTING THESE BALLOTS WTF?!?!?! CHEATING!!"
Republicans in Arizona (until yesterday) "STOP COUNTING THESE BALLOTS WTF?!?!?! CHEATING!!"
Republicans in Arizona (today) "EVERY VOTE MUST BE COUNTED WTF?!?!?! CHEATING!!"

Democrats in both places "Yeah, every vote should count, duh..."

See!? Both sides are the same!

[Thepersona]

Republicans in Florida "STOP COUNTING THESE BALLOTS WTF?!?!?! CHEATING!!"
Republicans in Arizona (until yesterday) "STOP COUNTING THESE BALLOTS WTF?!?!?! CHEATING!!"
Republicans in Arizona (today) "EVERY VOTE MUST BE COUNTED WTF?!?!?! CHEATING!!"

Democrats in both places "Yeah, every vote should count, duh..."

The bolded part happened after McCain's widow wife told them specifically that she voted by mail-in vote

[Hobb]

As of right now there's +30 confirmed democrat seats gained in the House with an addition +5 unresolved ones the democrats are leading in.

Which makes the 2018 midterm election the largest democrat gain in the House since Watergate. Highest one prior to Watergate was 2006 at +31.

[cubby]

As of right now there's +30 confirmed democrat seats gained in the House with an addition +5 unresolved ones the democrats are leading in.

Which makes the 2018 midterm election the largest democrat gain in the House since Watergate. Highest one prior to Watergate was 2006 at +31.

Blue Tsunami.

[DarkTZeratul]

Which makes the 2018 midterm election the largest democrat gain in the House since Watergate. Highest one prior to Watergate was 2006 at +31.

I'm not sure whether you typed the wrong year or the wrong scandal, but something's not right because 2006 was not prior to Watergate.

[kaelleria]

I'm not sure whether you typed the wrong year or the wrong scandal, but something's not right because 2006 was not prior to Watergate.

2006 was the largest D gain since Watergate, at 31 flips.

[Hobb]

I'm not sure whether you typed the wrong year or the wrong scandal, but something's not right because 2006 was not prior to Watergate.

I typed it wrong. 2006 at +31 was the largest gain since Watergate. But if things go as they seem to be going, 2018 will replace 2006 with +35.

[Benggaul]

Actually, disregarding the will of the public is kinda the whole point of life terms. They should not answer to the masses, only to the law. And it worked mostly that way for two centuries, ultimately.

When life terms were implemented they could not conceive of how much things would change. If the Supreme Court is meant to interpret the Constitution as it relates to the way of American life, they need to be cognizant of what that actually means. Not just in the Supreme Court, but all members of Congress, too, need to be kept updated.

Do you know how many members of Congress didn't (and possibly still don't) fully understand how emails work? (This was made evident during the whole "But her EMAILS!" debacle in 2016.) Recently there was a case brought before them having to do with podcast copyrights and the lawyers involved couldn't even get them to grasp the notion of what a podcast was.

No, lifetime appointments is absolute hot garbage and should be eliminated. As much as I love Notorious RBG, she should have stepped down years ago. The Constitution was not etched in stone and is meant to be changed/amended to reflect how things are now rather than how they were 200-300 years ago, and trying to judge what is right and wrong based on a centuries-old document without being fully aware of how actual Americans live is ludicrous. Not limiting their terms means the Justices stagnate and become inflexible in their thinking.

[DarkTZeratul]

The Constitution was not etched in stone and is meant to be changed/amended to reflect how things are now rather than how they were 200-300 years ago, and trying to judge what is right and wrong based on a centuries-old document without being fully aware of how actual Americans live is ludicrous. Not limiting their terms means the Justices stagnate and become inflexible in their thinking.

The Supreme Court shouldn't be judging what is right and wrong at all, nor should they be changing or amending the constitution. That's Congress's job. The only thing the Supreme Court should be judging the cases brought before they based on what the Constitution says. While that can sometimes mean interpreting whether it applies to more modern concepts like gay marriage, that's really the extent of their power to affect change.

[Rasulis]

As of right now there's +30 confirmed democrat seats gained in the House with an addition +5 unresolved ones the democrats are leading in.

Which makes the 2018 midterm election the largest democrat gain in the House since Watergate. Highest one prior to Watergate was 2006 at +31.

Two of the five districts where Dem. is leading are in CA. In CA-48, on Wednesday, Rouda (D) just increased his lead from 2,682 votes to 4,756. In CA-25, Knight (R) already conceded to Hill (D).

Three of the districts out of the eight where Rep is leading are in CA (bad news for them). CA-10 has 90% chance of flipping Dem. Rep. Denham 1% lead is not a big enough buffer against the historical voting patterns which show that ballots counted after election day skew strongly Democratic in California. In CA-45, Rep. Mimi Walters, saw her 6,233-vote lead over Democrat Katie Porter shrink to 4,037 votes on Wednesday with 70,000 to 90,000 more ballots to count. I can’t find any recent numbers on CA-39. The GOP did a good job with Young, and her opponent has some pretty big baggage. We'll have to see.

As a side note, Young is pretty interesting. A Korean immigrant that runs on a pro-DACA and pro-chain migration, and pro-choice platform. I guess that's what it takes to run as Republicans in Orange County now. If she win the election, she will likely be the lone Republican representing Orange County.

[Wyrt]

Two of the five districts where Dem. is leading are in CA. In CA-48, on Wednesday, Rouda (D) just increased his lead from 2,682 votes to 4,756. In CA-25, Knight (R) already conceded to Hill (D).

Three of the districts out of the eight where Rep is leading are in CA (bad news for them). CA-10 has 90% chance of flipping Dem. Rep. Denham 1% lead is not a big enough buffer against the historical voting patterns which show that ballots counted after election day skew strongly Democratic in California. In CA-45, Rep. Mimi Walters, saw her 6,233-vote lead over Democrat Katie Porter shrink to 4,037 votes on Wednesday with 70,000 to 90,000 more ballots to count. I can’t find any recent numbers on CA-39. The GOP did a good job with Young, and her opponent has some pretty big baggage. We'll have to see.

Seeing Rohrabacher and Denham lose this election would be great. A shame we couldn't get Nunes out.

[Shadowferal]

Nunes needs to be publicly humiliated anyway.

[Blur4stuff]

When considering gerrymandering and voter suppression this election was fucking gigantic for dems. I'll be blown away if they end up getting a senate seat in AZ/FL on top of it.

Just imagine what our government would look like if voting was fair across the board.

[kaelleria]

Seeing Rohrabacher and Denham lose this election would be great. A shame we couldn't get Nunes out.

Unfortunately that's a super safe R seat

Something like 15.3% more partisan leaning than the rest of the country. He won in 2016 by 35 points. He only won 2018 by 11.

[arandomuser]

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/b...514-story.html

Florida’s Department of State will send election experts to the Broward elections office in the upcoming election “to ensure that all laws are followed,”

so if rick scott sent election experts before the election back in may to oversee the broward elections, wouldnt they already know if she was doing something wrong. And also if the judge said she destroyed ballots why wasnt she removed from her post back then.