Nov 6, 2018 - Midterms *MEGA* Thread

[Kujako]

Skroe, does 538 has any betting odd on the control for governorships?

The nationwide split of governors isn kind of meaningless, it's state by state.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...cast/governor/

[cubby]

The nationwide split of governors isn kind of meaningless, it's state by state.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...cast/governor/

I get what you mean, there is not national majority that makes decisions and such.

But it does have national affects though. Dem governors will appoint Dem's if a seat is vacated. Likewise with state House and Senate seats that open up. Plus judges. Lots of national impacts based on the political party of the state governor.

- - - Updated - - -

But 538s modeling and predictions were spot on for 2016.

I know, and I've said as much. But in the end it had a 73% chance of Clinton winning, and she didn't. So the 85% chance of a House flip has me flipping out in joy, and cautiously optimistic because of past results. If that makes any sense.

Basically, emotion over statistics.

[Somewhatconcerned]

Be careful when you go to vote, people.

No telling what people will do these days to suppress this most basic right.

[Thepersona]

The nationwide split of governors isn kind of meaningless, it's state by state.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...cast/governor/

Yeah, i think i've stated my question the wrong way, sorry
I should've said that how are the odds that some governorships flip (like the florida one)... because that can have massive effects in the redistricting of 2020

[Kujako]

Yeah, i think i've stated my question the wrong way, sorry
I should've said that how are the odds that some governorships flip (like the florida one)... because that can have massive effects in the redistricting of 2020

According to the link, Florida is in the 80% rang to go Democrat right now (76.2% to be exactish).

[Ripster42]

Yeah, i think i've stated my question the wrong way, sorry
I should've said that how are the odds that some governorships flip (like the florida one)... because that can have massive effects in the redistricting of 2020

Why would governors have an effect on redistricting? Are there some that allow the governor to choose instead of an independent body or the legislature? I thought those two were the only options.

[Gestopft]

Why would governors have an effect on redistricting? Are there some that allow the governor to choose instead of an independent body or the legislature? I thought those two were the only options.

Even if a legislature is GoP majority, a Democratic governor can (I assume) force a bipartisan districting plan with veto power. And given that the popular vote favors Democrats (and will continue to as the GoP's strongest support dies off), just reversing the GoP's 2010 shenanigans would be a big win for a) democracy, and b) the Democrats.

[Skroe]

When you vote on November 6th, remember, the MAGABomber who tried to assassinate two Presidents, a Secretary of State, an Attorney General, a CIA Director, a Vice President, and a Congresswoman is a Donald Trump supporter.

[Crissi]

Note: they in fact didnt get rid of straight party voting option. Maybe thats for next election.

I didnt like voting against Kay Granger because I think she does a good job, and voting for Lupe is leaving an awful taste in my mouth, but a message must be sent.

[Ripster42]

Note: they in fact didnt get rid of straight party voting option. Maybe thats for next election.

I didnt like voting against Kay Granger because I think she does a good job, and voting for Lupe is leaving an awful taste in my mouth, but a message must be sent.

They have in other states (including mine just this election).

[Skroe]

For people interested in a kind of esoteric state issue that has healthcare ramifications:

https://www.boston.com/news/politics...nurse-staffing

Question 1 is shaping up to be the most expensive and closely watched ballot measure this year in Massachusetts.

The proposed law, which would limit the number of patients assigned to nurses, has split nurses and sparked unified opposition from hospitals. Polls show that voters also appear to be split on the debate. And with both sides pouring millions of dollars into their respective efforts, the attention on Question 1 is poised to get more intense as campaign season heads into its final month.

Here’s a guide to untangling the nuanced debate.

What exactly would the proposal do?
If passed, Question 1 would establish ratios limiting the number of patients that could be assigned at a time to individual nurses at Massachusetts hospitals and health clinics.

For most hospital departments, the maximum ratio would be set at four patients per nurse. However, that limit would vary depending on the unit, as well as the condition and type of patient within those units.

Interesting intersection of workers rights and healthcare costs.

-> A limit of patients per nurses would reduce the workload (which can be insane) on nurses.
-> It could improve the quality of care
-> It would require hospitals hire more nurses. Sometimes many more (about 3000 more).
-> There is a severe nurse shortage as is, so this would be slow and expensive, thus raising the cost of healthcare.
->

[Adam Jensen]

When you vote on November 6th, remember, the MAGABomber who tried to assassinate two Presidents, a Secretary of State, an Attorney General, a CIA Director, a Vice President, and a Congresswoman is a Donald Trump supporter.

Don't be ridiculous, why would someone who follows Donald Trump hate Barack Obama, George Soros, the Clintons and CNN?

/sarcasm, by the way.

[cubby]

When you vote on November 6th, remember, the MAGABomber who tried to assassinate two Presidents, a Secretary of State, an Attorney General, a CIA Director, a Vice President, and a Congresswoman is a Donald Trump supporter.

Have we had this before. Multiple "bomb" packages delivered to political opponents in the United States recently? I know individual politicians get threats from time to time, but this seems unprecedented.

I'm stuck in Utah for a family wedding this weekend so I'm basically out of touch with news - mostly because of not having any time.

My two biggest questions:

1) were they delivered or mailed? delivered speaks to a much more organized effort than a single nut bag.

2) how many were received (so far)? Robert Di Niro got one apparently?


(i'm not trying to derail this thread - i posted in here instead of the bomb thread by accident, lol)

[Gestopft]

For people interested in a kind of esoteric state issue that has healthcare ramifications:

https://www.boston.com/news/politics...nurse-staffing

Interesting intersection of workers rights and healthcare costs.

-> A limit of patients per nurses would reduce the workload (which can be insane) on nurses.
-> It could improve the quality of care
-> It would require hospitals hire more nurses. Sometimes many more (about 3000 more).
-> There is a severe nurse shortage as is, so this would be slow and expensive, thus raising the cost of healthcare.
->

That is sort of a tough question. Obviously hospital groups would be opposed to it. I feel like this is where I should point out that under Medicare for All, we could trade out some of those billing specialists to afford more nurses, but...coming back to the present moment, I can see how that's a contested one. My mom was a nurse, so I'd probably vote to pass it myself. More expensive, yes, but in the bigger picture we need systemic reform anyway

[Eveningforest]

For people interested in a kind of esoteric state issue that has healthcare ramifications:

https://www.boston.com/news/politics...nurse-staffing




Interesting intersection of workers rights and healthcare costs.

-> A limit of patients per nurses would reduce the workload (which can be insane) on nurses.
-> It could improve the quality of care
-> It would require hospitals hire more nurses. Sometimes many more (about 3000 more).
-> There is a severe nurse shortage as is, so this would be slow and expensive, thus raising the cost of healthcare.
->

If hospitals stop being cheap and hire new nurses straight out of nursing schools to put them through proper orientation, the "severe" nursing shortage really won't be all that severe anymore. You've got to invest in your employees, period.

If reasonable nurse to patient ratios were implemented to begin with, hospitals would not be losing nurses due to burn out so quickly, putting further strain on their current employees, worsening the already precarious situation.

It's a vicious cycle that needs to be fixed not only to benefit the nurses but, more importantly, the patients. It's a safety issue that needs to be addressed across the country because actual human lives are at stake. It's no laughing matter.

[mvaliz]

I just went yesterday to early voting here in Illinois.

Thought of you @Skroe when they told me that only certain districts (mine being one of them) was only allowed to vote electronically at that time as there was some mishap with getting the paper ballots over. Even though our districts are pretty safe from any shenanigans, I remembered our conversation before and thusly re-read and double-checked EVERY line that the printout version gave against what I voted for... just in case! Got you to thank for making me double-check that. ;P

[Felya]

Be careful when you go to vote, people.

No telling what people will do these days to suppress this most basic right.

Move to Washington... the walk to my mailbox was a wet one, but a safe one.

[Kujako]

Move to Washington... the walk to my mailbox was a wet one, but a safe one.

Walk? That wasn't part of the deal...

[Felya]

Walk? That wasn't part of the deal...

Walk > Small talk with mailman... no joke. You can talk to the mail dude and he will come to the door. Added bonus, him blasting 90s rap is a very warm sound late October. I long for the day sir mixalot blasts through my quiet block.

[Kujako]

Walk > Small talk with mailman... no joke. You can talk to the mail dude and he will come to the door. Added bonus, him blasting 90s rap is a very warm sound late October. I long for the day sir mixalot blasts through my quiet block.

Or I can put my mail box in my door, and talk to no one!