They always say the second year the new presidents administration and congress changes and actions start to impact society and the economy.
Welp here we are. Down for the year.
Things are not looking good and the quick burst impact of the unpaid for tax cuts, quick gdp bump of rushing to beat tariffs and growing inflation that is outpacing wage growth.
First we have the gloomy outlook on 4Q gdp.
Latest forcast 2.5% from the site they loved to quote the first 3 quarters. General consensus is down to 2.6%.
NYfed is at 2.59%
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast
So how much MAGA are we getting in the stock market vs our last president you ask?
Dow & SP500
SP500
Obama 42.9%
Trump 15.9%
260% better performance in his first term through 11/20
Dow
Obama 37.6%
Trump 23.2%
62% better performance
Is this a bump in the road? an expected pull back from lofty highs? If you look at the charts from past presidents the end of the 2nd year is when things really hit either the gas peddle or the break.
there are a lot of good things about the current economy but are we starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel for this 9 year run?