Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Breccia]

Even as Trump continues to push "China and Mexico want a deal" China and Mexico refuse Trump's demands and do so openly.

“If the United States wilfully decides to escalate tensions, we’ll fight to the end,” ministry spokesman Gao Feng told a regular news briefing.

“China does not want to fight a trade war, but also is not afraid of one. If the United States wilfully decides to escalate trade tensions, we’ll adopt necessary countermeasures and resolutely safeguard the interests of China and its people.”

The Commerce Ministry also issued a report on how the United States has benefited from years of economic and trade cooperation with China, saying U.S. claims that China has taken advantage in bilateral trade were groundless.

“Since the new U.S. administration took office, it has disregarded the mutually beneficial and win-win nature of China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation, and has advocated the theory that the United States has ‘lost out’ to China on trade,” the ministry said in a research report.

"Okay, but what about Mexico? They struck a much more friendly tone."

You're probably talking about their finance minister Ebrard, discussing the first day of talks. Funny story, do you know what they said about tariffs?

"Um..."

He said they didn't mention tariffs. Now, that's either blatant incompetence from Team Trump to call a meeting and refuse to discuss the biggest issue on the first day, or more likely, a blatant lie.

[Felya]

Even as Trump continues to push "China and Mexico want a deal" China and Mexico refuse Trump's demands and do so openly.

"Okay, but what about Mexico? They struck a much more friendly tone."

You're probably talking about their finance minister Ebrard, discussing the first day of talks. Funny story, do you know what they said about tariffs?

"Um..."

He said they didn't mention tariffs. Now, that's either blatant incompetence from Team Trump to call a meeting and refuse to discuss the biggest issue on the first day, or more likely, a blatant lie.

Just a reminder, Trump laid his cards down for Mexico in 2017. He told them this is in bad faith, with the goal of making Trump look good politically. He literally told them as much:

‘This deal will make me look terrible’: Full transcripts of Trump’s calls with Mexico and Australia
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...o-transcripts/

[Kokolums]

If what you say is true, then thee is no civil war coming.

Those are separate events.

[Machismo]

Those are separate events.

Yeah, no need for a civil war... let freedom and capitalism lead us.

[Kokolums]

If the alt right revolted today, they would win a civil war because russia and china would help them win. The left is just lucky the alt right hasnt figured this out yet. Im sure theyll figure it out within 5 years tho. The left is screwed.

[Elegiac]

If the alt right revolted today, they would win a civil war because russia and china would help them win.

I mean, they are leading producers of heroin and bariatric scooters respectively so I guess you're correct.

[Kokolums]

A lot of people in this thread are woefully misinformed about politics. Its not about winning a debate. Its about getting enough strong allies to win by force. The alt right can lose debates all day but they get russia and china on their side and they win.

- - - Updated - - -

What the left fails to understand is that their relentless attacks on russia is a critical political error because it means russia is gonna side with the alt right. Politics must stop at the waters edge. Because the left failed to heed that, its turned into a major blunder that will cost them everything. Everything.

[Lothar from accounting]

A lot of people in this thread are woefully misinformed about politics.

The projection is strong with this one.

As for the rest of your civil war wet dream... In such a situation Russia and China aren't going to side with anybody, they'll play both sides off of each other to draw out the conflict for as long as possible to cause the greatest destabilization/loss of power in the US as a whole. China and Russia aren't on anybody's side, in the US, they want us destroyed and/or subjugated under their power.

[kaid]

There is absolutely NO recession in sight.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...9-6-1028257830

1. The job market is scorching hot, with the labor market the tightest its been in FIVE DECADES.
2. Restaurants are closing or are being forced to use disposable utensils because they cannot find workers.
3. The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since December 1969.
4. Business sectors are reporting labor shortages just about everywhere.

If you are sour on the US economy right now, you are incredibly uninformed.

And yet wages gains are barely above the rate of inflation. There is some serious economic disconnects happening that are really odd. Our economy is great but massive chains of stores are failing. We have massive employment but wages are stagnant as businesses can't or won't offer more money to attract the workers they say they need. Big businesses overall are loving the economy but I still question how much of the benefits the bulk of people are really feeling right now.

[Zan15]

There is absolutely NO recession in sight.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...9-6-1028257830

1. The job market is scorching hot, with the labor market the tightest its been in FIVE DECADES.
2. Restaurants are closing or are being forced to use disposable utensils because they cannot find workers.
3. The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since December 1969.
4. Business sectors are reporting labor shortages just about everywhere.

If you are sour on the US economy right now, you are incredibly uninformed.

Wait Republicans swore restaurants were all going to go out of business and have mass layoffs because of rising min wage.

What happened??

[Independent voter]

Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.



Well there you go guys, you won. You don't even have to vote now.

[jeezusisacasual]

The market is pricing in a rate cut a bit early if you ask me. The problem with a rate cut would be an admission to a recession which in turn would hurt the economy. The FED is an a awkward position because regardless of how they try to steer the ship it will be a large enough outcry or hammering from either side of the fence which leads them in a place of no return. If anything i am shocked we have had such low inflation ( Minus healthcare / education / housing ) with how much QE has been going on but perhaps that will spike up soon considering the Tariff man is at it again.

I still think that the driver of our economy ( expendable income ) is starting to shrink which is leading to the closure of various retail stores. Digital sales are not beating person to person sales and wont be for a long time so that claim is a myth to begin with. I also wonder if the FED would retaliate against a leftist populist if they should win the white house and or congress? But in this kind of market i am still sticking to my standard advice for the people i manage so not much has changed ( i handle retirement accounts aged 40 and older ) with some movement into more safer industries.

[DarkTZeratul]

I also wonder if the FED would retaliate against a leftist populist if they should win the white house and or congress?

The FED so far as managed to remain very apolitical, making their decisions largely on the basis of what the economy requires rather than who's in the White House. I don't expect them to "retaliate" against anyone.

[Dontrike]

If the alt right revolted today, they would win a civil war because russia and china would help them win. The left is just lucky the alt right hasnt figured this out yet. Im sure theyll figure it out within 5 years tho. The left is screwed.

And if the alt left did the same thing unicorns, Canada, dragons, and China would help them win. Look! I can make up shit too! Wee!

[Breccia]

Found this nifty article that says that the tariffs could cost the USA $374 million more dollars in beer alone.

"Is that a FOX News websii--"

Yep.

"Okay, so $374 million divided by -- "

Nooooooooope. You leave me out of that. I don't drink beer. Y'all can pay that yourselves.

[Draco-Onis]

Found this nifty article that says that the tariffs could cost the USA $374 million more dollars in beer alone.

"Is that a FOX News websii--"

Yep.

"Okay, so $374 million divided by -- "

Nooooooooope. You leave me out of that. I don't drink beer. Y'all can pay that yourselves.

Supreme court rapist I mean justice Brett party boy Kavanaugh is going to be pissed.

[Breccia]

Found another article, it's Illinois-centric but it has some additional info.

In 1994, Illinois shipped $1.7 billion in goods to Mexico.

In 2017, it was $10 billion.

That's 8% annual growth on average, way past inflation. Incidentally, 1994 was the first year NAFTA removed most tariffs between the countries.

Which Trump is putting back.

Here's something the USDA published back in the day:

U.S. pear exports to Mexico provide an example of a 4-
year transition. Prior to NAFTA, Mexico levied a tariff
of 20 percent on U.S. pears. On January 1, 1994, the
day of NAFTA's implementation, Mexico immediately
cut the tariff to 15 percent. On January 1, 1995, Mexico
made a second reduction, dropping the tariff to 11.25
percent. The third and fourth reductions occurred on
January 1, 1996, and January 1, 1997, when Mexico
lowered the tariff to 7.5 percent and 3.75 percent,
respectively. Mexico made its fifth and final reduction
on January 1, 1998, eliminating the tariff in its entirety.
Because this process featured five annual reductions,
some analysts describe this transition as having
occurred over a 5-year period, even though it lasted
only 4 years, from January 1, 1994, to January 1, 1998

Yep. 20. Trump's eyeing 25.

[Felya]

Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

Well there you go guys, you won. You don't even have to vote now.

No bud... Trump won... it’s been more than 2 years... The actual market is irrelevant. Trump has taught politicians that all you have to do is act like it’s the worst economy ever. Claim some stupid shit, like 44.4% unemployment... you know, since Trump claimed it was 45% and he only took it down 0.6%? It’s one of the Trump rewords... we no longer have to care if the market is actually bull or bear... you just have to feel like it’s the worst ever.

[jeezusisacasual]

The FED so far as managed to remain very apolitical, making their decisions largely on the basis of what the economy requires rather than who's in the White House. I don't expect them to "retaliate" against anyone.

If they lower rates now they will be stained with doing so because Trump told them to do so. I know they are apolitical and are an outside of government unit but the vast majority of the nation does not know nor do they understand that.

[DarkTZeratul]

If they lower rates now they will be stained with doing so because Trump told them to do so. I know they are apolitical and are an outside of government unit but the vast majority of the nation does not know nor do they understand that.

The vast majority of the nation doesn't understand what they are or what they do at all. I assure you, the only peoples whose perception concerns them are the movers and shakers of the economy, and those people definitely wouldn't accuse them of politically-motivated actions unless they were blatantly doing so. If Trump told them to lower rates, and they also lowered rates because it made sense to lower rates, the people who matter would absolutely recognize that Trump played little to no part in their decision to lower rates.