Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Fahrenheit]

Uh, yikes...

[SoLoR1]

I wonder if Trump will take responsibility for this market... since he takes responsibility when it randomly goes up most of the time... I know i know... its bidens faults or deep state or whatever "its not me, blame anyone else" excuse he thinks off... while i know its not "his" fault, market also doesnt goes up because he is the president... i honestly hope market tanks way way more... dow under 20k would look nice!

[Hobb]

I wonder if Trump will take responsibility for this market... since he takes responsibility when it randomly goes up most of the time... I know i know... its bidens faults or deep state or whatever "its not me, blame anyone else" excuse he thinks off... while i know its not "his" fault, market also doesnt goes up because he is the president... i honestly hope market tanks way way more... dow under 20k would look nice!

Breccia's earlier post answers that question.

Trump being Trump is blaming it on the media and Democrats, anyone but himself.

[arandomuser]

I hope the hardest hit states by trumps recession are michigan pennsylvania and ohio, serves them right,
it just sucks everyones giving trumps awful trade policies a pass and blaming the virus, the virus didnt put a 30% tax on consumers.

[Breccia]

Ah, another morning, another fine cup of Green Mountain's finest black co--

Almost 1900 point drop during the first 15 minutes of trading.

PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFT

I mean, it's back up to "only" down 1400 now but...damn. When I said "1,000" yesterday I did so because I didn't think it'd be that bad.

I guess technically, it still might not be. It could rise...you know...900 points or something.

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The NYSE has announced if the market does drop to 20% they'll shutdown for the day and just go home.

I've had a chance to think about this issue in the...Jesus Christ, it's been like 8 hours. Anyhow, I get the idea is to keep people from losing everything. It's like, oh I don't know, giving farmers money when your policies costs them their livelihoods. Bailing out banks when they loaned to people or businesses that can't pay back. Helping people find food, shelter, and medicine when they don't have a job. So, even though this directly affects the rich, I guess I can't really complain that there are safety measures.

But the next time I walk into a casino, I expect to hear someone saying "Sir, you've lost $500 three hands in a row. Why don't you take a break and cut your losses?"

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By the way, for those of you just joining us:



This is what everyone's talking about. That horizontal line? That's 100% artificial. Trading was shut down for 15 minutes because the DOW dropped 7%. It will happen again if it drops 13% and, as cited above, shut down for the whole day at 20%.

That bounce-back suggests that won't happen. But still, 24,393 is the same price as...(checks graph)...early December 2017.

We have officially lost all of 2020, all of 2019, all...heh, my iPhone just reminded me I have to talk to my retirement agent tomorrow. "Lucky" for me I didn't trust Trump and put everything into super-safe slow-ass accounts. Anyhow, all of 2018, and now we're taking bites out of 2017 as well.

This isn't a crash. But it sure ain't the growth he promised.

"But Breccia! Trump never promised stock market growth!"

...what?

"Despite taking credit for the DOW going up even a few crumbs, Trump never said anything in 2016 about making the stock market go up. In fact, he's even been quoted saying it's a bubble and he got out. And enough experts said 'Trump will crash the market' that 538 wrote this article begging them to stop."

Huh.

"Now, since then, Trump has said things like 'if I don’t win you’re going to see a crash like you’ve never seen before', so the implication is still there. He just didn't make any specific promises before he was elected."

"A list of Trump campaign promises can be found here. It should be noted, PolitiFact is being overly generous. He's given a +1 for issuing an Executive Order, +1 for saving the Carrier plant which HAHAHAHA no they still fired a bunch of people and moved to Mexico, and +1 for NAFTA 1.0.0.2 which did nearly nothing. There's also a lot of 'In The Works' for things that haven't technically failed yet. Even a devoted conservative would look at that list and have a hard time saying 'librul bias' based on those results."

"And none of them say DOW or stock market."

Okay, fair point. It's still a dick move to take credit for growth when he won't take blame for falls, and it's also a scare tactic to say So-and-So will crash the market when he's doing a fine job of ruining it by himself. But, yeah, I guess he didn't actually make such promises.

But.

When he tweets, and I quote,

You cannot judge my Stock Market performance since the Inauguration, which was very good, but only from the day after the big Election Win, which was spectacular due to the euphoria of getting Obama/Biden OUT, & getting Trump/Pence IN

then he is taking credit now. And as such, he still gets appropriately called out for such.

And to end this post, let's follow that line of thinking. What is the stock market growth from election day till now? We're at 24,149.03 and...

(checks chart)

Holy shit, the market dropped 300 points while I was writing this.

Okay. Um. Anyhow, as I posted before, it was about 18,000 when Trump almost won the popular vote. That's +34.2%, annualized to a rate of 8.8% since that time.

When Obama was elected he --

"Whoa! You're going to use Obama's first term? Isn't that ridiculously disingenuous?"

Well, Trump started it. He said the markets turned around once he got elected, because it was about a change in leadership. I think it's fair.

"Of course it's fair, but it's highly contextual! Trump didn't come out of a recession, Obama did!"

Fine. I'll use Nov 2012 and go 3 years, 4 months from that. Happy?

"That depends, what numbers do we get?"

Well, Obama went from 13,100 to 17,660 which is 34.8% --

"Oh, fucking hell."

Yeah, see, turns out the DOW jumped riiiiiiiiight at that crucial last month. If we'd had this conversation last month, Obama wouldn't have had that bump and Trump wouldn't have killed the stock market yet. But, well, time makes fools of us all.

To complete that line of thinking, Obama's entire second term -- yes, I'm still handicapping Obama on this -- gives an annualized rate of 7.9%. For Trump to do the same thing, the DOW will have to be 24,639 or so. In theory, all he needs to do is tread water, and he'll be fine. Of course, that takes a lot of wind out of the "best economy ever" argument, and expect that to be thrown in his face. Or, more realistically, expect Trump to suddenly decide more socialist bailouts are called for to inflate the DOW at the cost of, you guessed it, more taxpayer dollars.

[Shalcker]

Russia can withstand $25-$30 oil prices for 6-10 years: Finance Ministry
Monday, 9 March 2020

The Russian National Wealth Fund, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, has enough reserves to cover the shortfall in income from falling oil prices between $25-$30 per barrel for six to 10 years, Russia's Ministry of Finance said in a statement on its website.

The statement comes as oil prices fell dramatically on Monday in the biggest one-day drop since 1991 with futures trading around 25 percent down at the opening bell.

“The outlook for oil is now extremely negative, given the slowdown globally caused by coronavirus and the collapse of the OPEC+ cartel. It is hard to see Brent crude recovering back above $40 a barrel in this environment,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst – Asia Pacific for OANDA, a forex trading platform.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and 10 other members, including Russia, previously known as the OPEC+ group, had met in Vienna over the weekend to discuss increasing an existing output cut agreement. Talks fell apart after Russia failed to agree to a proposed 1.5 million barrel per day cut increase.

The current deal will expire on April 1, at which point members of the OPEC+ will be allowed to increase their oil operations, a fact that has triggered markets to fall amid fears of a price war between oil producers.

[Omega10]

Russia had prepared 570 billions $ of reserves expecting events like this. Everyone knew crash will be coming eventually.

It'll be several years before it will need to "blink"... perhaps decades even.

No one knows for sure what Saudi Arabia and Russia are thinking. But it is a safe bet that they previously talked together about this scenario many times "just in case", and presumably prepared reasonably well for just this situation. I doubt that Russia was surprised in the least by the Saudi action.

I doubt that either of them will blink any time soon. Saudi Arabia went all in on a very dramatic and bold strategy.

The US media publishes LOTS of stories about the weakness of other countries that are found to be false, including stories that ASSURE us that weak countries like Russia would NEVER be able to pull off a long term reduction in oil prices. I don't believe that the Russian economy is anywhere near as weak as the US media makes it out to be, and I feel pretty confident that Russia and Saudi Arabia will work to raise prices again when they think it is in their best interest. I also would bet that they have already discussed the nature of just how they will reverse course when the time comes.

So these are my predictions about oil prices. Low prices for quite a while, and then higher prices when Russia and Saudi Arabia decide it is in their best interest to raise them back up. Later rather than sooner since it is not clear that they will be able to raise prices that much even with perfect coordination.

[Draco-Onis]

I hope the hardest hit states by trumps recession are michigan pennsylvania and ohio, serves them right,
it just sucks everyones giving trumps awful trade policies a pass and blaming the virus, the virus didnt put a 30% tax on consumers.

Long term China's GDP going to shit because of the virus is going to fuck them on top of that, they aren't going to increase their purchases given they already invested in alternative countries.

[Breccia]

Wells Fargo continues to have bad news, as the new CEO cleans house. Their stock price just dropped even further, just shy of 10%. So did JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, though, suggesting that it's just not a good time to invest in investing.

Boeing lost about the same. So did Caterpillar.

Bank of America lost even more.

Soybeans are down, in fact most commodities are down, except natural gas for obvious reasons.

Jan/Feb Chinese exports are down more than expected, although their imports are down less than expected.

Wal-Mart is actually up for the day --

"That doesn't make sense in context."

It does, if you read this article. They effectively yanked up the price themselves.

And the ten-year yield is 0.45%, with investors predicting yet another rate cut at next week's Fed meeting. But, at least the 3Mo/10Yr yield curve isn't inverted like it was literally last Monday, right?

All in all, this is yet another shitty day for the stock market.

[Omega10]

Wells Fargo continues to have bad news, as the new CEO cleans house. Their stock price just dropped even further, just shy of 10%. So did JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, though, suggesting that it's just not a good time to invest in investing.

Boeing lost about the same. So did Caterpillar.

Bank of America lost even more.

Soybeans are down, in fact most commodities are down, except natural gas for obvious reasons.

Jan/Feb Chinese exports are down more than expected, although their imports are down less than expected.

Wal-Mart is actually up for the day --

"That doesn't make sense in context."

It does, if you read this article. They effectively yanked up the price themselves.

And the ten-year yield is 0.45%, with investors predicting yet another rate cut at next week's Fed meeting. But, at least the 3Mo/10Yr yield curve isn't inverted like it was literally last Monday, right?

All in all, this is yet another shitty day for the stock market.

Boeing had bad news independent of everything else going on.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boein...150505843.html

Another delay in the return of the 737 MAX, and more redesign and more alterations made to the existing planes.

[Rasulis]

Might be if today is a blood bath since treasuries are sucking wind...

Gold just doesn't attract investors like it used too

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Nah both SA and Russia will blink... especially fast if the markets tank 5-10-15%

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Well you know "the tread is just not holding up...." Lol...

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Man good thing those 5% breakers are in place
So pre market can't trade lower...even if it wanted too...I bet it would have hit 2k.

I almost want to set my alarm for 930 to see if we instantly hit the stock market breaker on open...but I worked all night ...

Neither one will blink anytime soon. Russia claimed that they have enough reserve to subsidize the government for at least 4 years at $20 per barrel. There is no reason to doubt them. SA is flush from cash from Aramco IPO in January. They also have the advantage of, at $5 per barrel, the lowest oil production cost in the world.

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I hope the hardest hit states by trumps recession are michigan pennsylvania and ohio, serves them right,
it just sucks everyones giving trumps awful trade policies a pass and blaming the virus, the virus didnt put a 30% tax on consumers.

Any states with oil & gas making up more than 5% of their economy will feel the impact of the crash. A quick non-comprehensive list - Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Utah, Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Alaska, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia.

[Breccia]

Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Utah, Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Alaska, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia.

I bolded the potential swing states based on what I remember seeing recently. Hopefully I'll find the time later to put numbers on those states.

[Hobb]

Don't worry folks Trump has a solution....just print more money. Hello inflation.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/inves...rus/index.html

[Rasulis]

Unless you are a trader, the stock market crash is not a big deal actually. The 2000 crash was a lot worse and most people barely notice.

The oil crash in term of the actual impact to the day-to-day economy will be a lot worse. Especially small oil & gas states. North Dakota has a population of approximately 670k. Around 100k are employed in oil & gas & related & downstream businesses. This will be devastating to them.

[Edge-]

Don't worry folks Trump has a solution....just print more money. Hello inflation.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/inves...rus/index.html

That's not Trump, that's the Fed. They've done this before as well, it's one of their tools to calm markets.

[Captain N]

That's not Trump, that's the Fed. They've done this before as well, it's one of their tools to calm markets.

Yeah but then there's those bailouts for airlines and cruise ships that was also mentioned in the article.

Fantastic...more corporate welfare.

[Omega10]

Unless you are a trader, the stock market crash is not a big deal actually. The 2000 crash was a lot worse and most people barely notice.

The oil crash in term of the actual impact to the day-to-day economy will be a lot worse. Especially small oil & gas states. North Dakota has a population of approximately 670k. Around 100k are employed in oil & gas & related & downstream businesses. This will be devastating to them.

There are some industries that are not doing so well.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters...e-radar-785873

AIRLINE BAILOUT NOT ON THE RADAR: President Donald Trump, while meeting with airline CEOs at the White House on Wednesday, said the industry had not brought up the issue of government financial assistance. “I don’t want you to give them any ideas. We haven’t discussed that yet,” he said, which we know thanks to the trusty C-SPAN cameras in the room.

It seems to me that the crash is responding to internal reports produced by various parts of the economy. The capitalized AIRLINE BAILOUTS NOT ON THE RADAR kind of implies that airlines expect to be in for some pretty rough times moving forward.

[beanman12345]

Look's like we're back or close to back to Obama numbers. So much for that great "Trump" economy.

[zenkai]

Yeah but then there's those bailouts for airlines and cruise ships that was also mentioned in the article.

Fantastic...more corporate welfare.

Guess we can let the airlines go bust over something that isn't their fault so when the hysteria is over we all can be stuck with less options to fly and higher ticket prices.

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I can't help but notice how all our resident Trump supporters are MIA. Are they on forum vacations or is this something that not even they can spin?

Maybe because any intelligent person knows the market drop has nothing to do with Trump? What is there to defend?

[beanman12345]

Guess we can let the airlines go bust over something that isn't their fault so when the hysteria is over we all can be stuck with less options to fly and higher ticket prices.

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Maybe because any intelligent person knows the market drop has nothing to do with Trump? What is there to defend?

When it goes up, it's Trump's great economy, when it tanks to Obama levels, it has nothing to do with Trump.