Mega-Thread: Democratic 2020 Primaries

[Theodarzna]

Case in point, the social uprising of my country last year.
Again, US, please stop being the fucking world police? Plz thx

^ This, its time to end this weird missionary zeal for global imperium. It seems to lead to just doing evil things to people for ones own enrichment. To add insult to injury this imperium doesn't even have the kindness to share the spoils and loot across the population but instead demands people at home suffer for the sake of its continuation to.

[Blur4stuff]

The problem is not that he said it decades ago.

The problem is he is still saying it, and it's representative of a trend.

A trend of recognizing that someone else is doing something right? Again, voters aren't complete idiots. They can understand the difference between pointing out how someone does something well despite doing other things badly.

This is why some in the media are having a hard time understanding why flinging around words like socialism and communism isn't working. Not one single, sane person honestly believes Sanders wants the US to be like Cuba in every way. It's like constantly comparing things to Venezuela.

Not gonna work.

[Edge-]

Just like large parts of the anglo-saxon sphere, any place filled with boomers will never go left-wing.

https://time.com/5000792/youngest-oldest-us-states/

Data disagrees with you. Plenty of the younger states are solidly Republican just as plenty of the older states are solidly Democrat.

The best example is the recent UK election. Without the 50+ vote, it would have been the biggest landslide(for labour) in UK history.

Too bad that 45+ vote exists in both the US and UK, and ignoring them entirely is a sure as shit way to get your ass kicked. Older folks get out to vote in higher numbers than younger folks.

[Theodarzna]

A trend of recognizing that someone else is doing something right? Again, voters aren't complete idiots. They can understand the difference between pointing out how someone does something well despite doing other things badly.

This is why some in the media are having a hard time understanding why flinging around words like socialism and communism isn't working. Not one single, sane person honestly believes Sanders wants the US to be like Cuba in every way. It's like constantly comparing things to Venezuela.

Not gonna work.

For the vast majority of voters, especially those under the age of 60, does anyone even care about Cuba other than it looks pretty on instagram?

Like getting real here, the voters most likely to care were already not voting for Sanders or ANY Democrat come November.

[Skroe]

Do you believe because nuance and critical thinking is thrown out and lies are all the rage, that means that you personally can go around parroting baseless claims that are disrupted and essentially lies? Are you now telling me that you yourself will ignore the fact of nuance and facts because other people do?

Everything you said here DOES NOT EXCUSE YOU PERSONALLY for parroting a false claim. You did not say "in effect" or "what people heard" or "what Americans will think"

You repeated the claim as though it were exactly what he said, as though it were the actual fact.

Saying facts and nuance doesn't matter so you personally will ignore facts and nuance doesn't make a lot of sense. Now I don't believe that's exactly what you're saying but you're sure as fucking acting like it, and your response instead of owning it just explained why facts and nuance doesn't matter.

I don't think you quite get it.

It's not about me... Software Engineer from Massachusetts with an education that costs more than most Sanders' supporters life worth. It's not about you, high information New Jersey voter. You and I can be compelled with thoughtful arguments. We're rational beings. We are also, the exception. We also live in states that have no role in choosing the President.


The people who will choose the President are centrist-independent voters in swing states, and the way to win is get as many people out in the base as possible, then grab as many of those centrist independent swing voters as possible.

The least offensive and most emotional message is what wins. It worked in 2018. It will work in 2020. What won't work is trying to use facts and educate people. People do not want to be educated in these areas. They want their prejudices confirmed. They want their impulses reinforced.

This is why I've been saying "M4A is a shitty thing to run on". Not because I'm against M4A. But because I think for such a complex issue with so many nuances, there is zero chance Democrats can educate voters and get them to vote affirmatively on it, in the time span required.

Why?

Because most voters don't pay attention until October and November of a given year. And final decision is typically made in the last two weeks. This is also when spending reaches its greatest amount.

Can Sanders seriously make the case of Democratic Socialism in a total of 6 weeks? Change a life time of people's EMOTIONAL aversion to "socialism" "communism" and "government takeovers" and all the other things REpublicans will shoot against it. Hell no. Trump will beat ANY fact-based, explanatory message by catering to those swing voters worse impulses. By telling them they are RIGHT to be against government-run healthcare, higher taxes and all of that. And it will work on just enough voters to get him a majority.

I've been telling you progressives this for about a month and you guys just don't want to hear it. You people want M4A and all that so badly, you have completely ignored the fact that you people haven't even begun the decade-long sales pitch that makes "government run healthcare" not something scary. Sanders COULD WIN in a world where that had already happened, and Trump's attacks on it didn't hold currency because people were more accepting. But right now, people in the swing states are NOT accepting of the progressive slate, and are NOT accepting of government role int heir lives. This is a built-in advantage to Trump.

It sucks, but that's the battlefield.

I have said for months now that the winning strategy is to shut up, run against Trump and just Trump, and win in November, and then in 2021, if you want to go hardcore progressive, go nuts. Don't tell the voters what you stand for. Get them pissed at Trump and make them vote EMOTIVELY against Trump. But you people... you marvelous, marvelous progressives... want political validation so damn badly, you need the ideas you run on to beat Trump.

You have failed to ask... "does this expand my side's voting coalition in these swing states". The answer is, it emphatically does not. It contracts it. And things like defending Castro and then saying, in a very Trump-like manner "well what he actually meant to say is", further contracts it.

Let's be clear. One more time. This isn't about policy. A progressive President can go nuts for all I care. But you people, so pleased with your ideology, are walking into a goddamn trap out of pride. This is about strategy and how to get more votes in the right places than the other guy. And by being a proud, flag waving liberal, you haven't stopped to ask "does this get me more voters than the other guy". And the answer is, it doesn't. Because people in certain locations are not close to be sold the way you are .

Bernie Sanders can win. By shutting up, and running against Trump and stopping to talk entirely about the progressive slate. Cater to the deplorables of the swing states while woke progressives of Brooklyn are quiet partners to the con. Which like all political campaigns, what it is to some degree - a con.


Or you can be honest, self righteous and lose badly. Your choice.

[CostinR]

Yeah. Conservatives seem to forget that Cuba prior to castro was agruably a much shittier state than with him, sanctions included.
Also. Please stop being the world police? Plz k thx

I genuinely dare you to go to South Florida and argue that in Miami in front of a crowd of Cubans and tell us how well it went for you. I had a cuban friend from Florida, born and raised there. He personally didn't care at all about Castro but he told me a lot of the older generation still dreamed about taking their guns to kill the bastard and his entire family. ( When Castro was still alive ).

Many Cuban-Americans despise Castro and they are a strong voting bloc hence why many Democrats from Florida have condemned Sanders over the last few days.

Pack your bags and leave Florida democrats, you are not winning 2020 there with Sanders on the ticket.

[JohnBrown1917]

https://time.com/5000792/youngest-oldest-us-states/

Data disagrees with you. Plenty of the younger states are solidly Republican just as plenty of the older states are solidly Democrat

That says nothing about what sort of policies are popular with boomers.. meanwhile I already referenced to Sanders exitpoll numbers and the UK election.


Plus, a whole lot of dems are still centre-right, which is not who i'm talking about.

[Thepersona]

I genuinely dare you to go to South Florida and argue that in Miami in front of a crowd of Cubans and tell us how well it went for you. I had a cuban friend from Florida, born and raised there. He personally didn't care at allabout Castro but he told me a lot of the older generation still dreamed about taking their guns to kill the bastard and his entire family. ( When Castro was still alive ).

Many Cuban-Americans despise Castro and they are a strong voting bloc hence why many Democrats from Florida have condemned Sanders over the last few days.

Pack your bags and leave Florida democrats, you are not winning 2020 there with Sanders on the ticket.

What you say does not, by any mean, make what i say false.
And again, Florida is a an uphill Toss up either way. And no, getting fucking Bloomberg on tje ticlet wont make them vote democrat

[Rasulis]

Yeah, let's look to the guy who talked to an empty chair for 10 minutes pretending that Obama was sitting there.

I am just saying that Clint Eastwood, a lifelong Republican, is willing to support Bloomberg. He is not the only one.

Like it or not, most Americans are firmly in the middle. Moderate Democrats and Republicans share a lot in common.

[JohnBrown1917]

I am just saying that Clint Eastwood, a lifelong Republican, is willing to support Bloomberg. He is not the only one.

Like it or not, most Americans are firmly in the middle. Moderate Democrats and Republicans share a lot in common.

And most people also don't like it when the choice is between a far right racist/rapist and another far right rapist/racist.

[Edge-]

That says nothing about what sort of policies are popular with boomers.. meanwhile I already referenced to Sanders exitpoll numbers and the UK election.

You said FL would vote Republican because they're old. Your argument is garbage, and the data doesn't back it up.

Plus, a whole lot of dems are still centre-right, which is not who i'm talking about.

So what, do you think that Sanders will win with only a fraction of the Democratic base or something?

I'm terribly confused at what you're trying to get at right now.

[Skroe]

Case in point, the social uprising of my country last year.
Again, US, please stop being the fucking world police? Plz thx

No.

Because no offense to Chilie (nothing by respect for you and your country), most of this goddamn planet can barely keep the lights on, and left to its own devices they'll murder each other in a decade.

And to be blunt, with the New Cold War, it's going to be "World Police" the likes of which Millennials have never seen in our life time. One does not build hundreds of stealth bombers for border patrol purposes, or request a new generation of nuclear submarine cruise missiles.

This is the world we live in. The window on the US giving up its world police role is slammed shut. You can thank China. Particularly since this Coronavirus episode has badly damaged their international reputation and reach, and they will seek to repair that by buttressing that reputation and reach with decisive action. That in turn will incur a response from the United States to keep a lid on China. And China will respond. Etc. etc.

I'll say it again, it's fucking hilarious that the next President - Bernie or Trump - will be the greatest contributor to the build up of US military power since Ronald Reagan, all due to the bills coming due and things rolling out as part of the bipartisan budget consensus that the President plays no role in.

[Shadowferal]

That's extremely wishful thinking.

Sanders and Biden are doing better in PA than Trump.

[Edge-]

I am just saying that Clint Eastwood, a lifelong Republican, is willing to support Bloomberg. He is not the only one.

And you believe him? Because I sure as fuck don't.

Like it or not, most Americans are firmly in the middle. Moderate Democrats and Republicans share a lot in common.

We keep being told. Meanwhile...

Bush won as an unabashed conservative, and acted like one.
Obama won as an unabashed progressive, but acted like a moderate.
Trump ran as a batshit crazy conservative, and is still acting like one.

Not seeing much moderation this millennia.

[Grapemask]

You know you've fucked up when Vox is calling out a left wing candidate for bad politics.



Bolded and highlighted the key points for emphasis, particularly in light of the "but Obama" defense.

This accusation is not entirely made up out of whole cloth and Sanders is doing absolutely nothing to help it.

I continue believing that Sanders made a poor choice in his words, but that article's kind of a wild ride that doesn't really logically follow from one point to the next. Rather than taking the stance that education is good but the government's leveraging of it for loyalty was bad, it instead argues that education was bad. It notes that Bernie Sanders' thoughts are mirrors of the same things Obama said, but then says Bernie Sanders hasn't said wonderful things about the nuance of completely different countries that he hasn't been asked about. That's the same logic that All Lives Matter people are employing when they cry about Black Lives Matter not chiming in when white people get shot by cops.

[Elegiac]

This is why I've been saying "M4A is a shitty thing to run on". Not because I'm against M4A. But because I think for such a complex issue with so many nuances, there is zero chance Democrats can educate voters and get them to vote affirmatively on it, in the time span required.

I want to point out that I happen to disagree with Skroe on this particular point regarding M4A. But the principle reason is because there is significant amount of gain to be had in the risk; i.e. healthcare reform.

There is absolutely fuck all to be gained in terms of actual agenda or policy by white knighting the Castro regime. It's not even tangentially related in terms of like...foreign policy, a question of detente with Cuba.

It's literally just defending leftism's good name and it's bad politics. This, as I've said repeatedly, is why I went for Clinton in 2016 and voted for Warren this year. I will take administrative competence any fuckin' day of the week, even if it's a losing horse.

[PACOX]

This whole Castro controversy is weak.

Bernie Sanders: We’re very opposed to the authoritarian nature of Cuba, but, you know, it’s unfair to simply say everything is bad, you know? When Fidel Castro came into office, you know what he did? He had a massive literacy program. Is that a bad thing? Even though Fidel Castro did it?



Anderson Cooper: A lot of p— dissidents imprisoned in, in Cuba.



Bernie Sanders: That’s right. And we condemn that. Unlike Donald Trump. Let’s be clear, you want to — I do not think that Kim Jong-un is a good friend. I don’t trade love letters with a murdering dictator. Vladimir Putin, not a great friend of mine.

I know people are smarter than that.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1231781040211013632

Neither Sanders or Obama are praising Castro.

Meanwhile we have a guy in the WH who just went to visit a racist nationalist. A man in the WH who seems to have a thing for human rights violators.

But the 'left-wing' media wants is riding with 'Bernie loves Castro'. Self sabotage it is then?

[Theodarzna]

What you say does not, by any mean, make what i say false.
And again, Florida is a an uphill Toss up either way. And no, getting fucking Bloomberg on tje ticlet wont make them vote democrat

Yeah, like, yes, I get why the Cuban exiles are pissed, they lost big time on the collapse of that regime and the campaign of reprisals that followed. Though like, addressed from an outside perspective; it doesn't mean their emotional trauma is any more important to not offend then someone else's. And in their case most of them are just the kids and grandkids of those people.

Plus, what are we to do? Like "Sanders said Cuba did some good things, and that Castro doesn't actually eat babies while rapping pre-teens *cough* actually our elite do on Little Saint James but whatever.... this is why I think Poor People don't deserve health care!"

[Rasulis]

And most people also don't like it when the choice is between a far right racist/rapist and another far right rapist/racist.

Bloomberg may be a sexist pig as reflected by the numbers of sexual harassment cases against him. However, there is not single case of unwanted touching, groping, sexual assault and/or rape against him. Nor pedophilia. I dare you to find a single case.

Also, the guy has many flaws. However, infidelity is not one of them. There is not a hint that he had ever been unfaithful to his former wife and current girlfriend.

As for racist, maybe. Although, it is more a case of discrimination based on net worth, rather than skin color.

[Shadowferal]

Trump defeats all 2020 Democrats in Wisconsin but loses in Pennsylvania and Michigan, poll finds

In PA:

• Biden 50%, Trump 42%

• Klobuchar 49%, Trump 42%

• Bloomberg 48%, Trump 42%

• Sanders 48%, Trump 44%

• Buttigieg 47%, Trump 43%

• Warren 47%, Trump 44%

In Michigan, – where Trump won in 2016 by 10,704 votes, or 0.2% – he also trailed all of his potential Democratic adversaries, though by narrower margins. Here was the breakdown of results from registered Michigan voters:

• Sanders 48%, Trump 43%

• Bloomberg 47%, Trump 42%

• Biden 47%, Trump 43%

• Warren 45%, Trump 43%

• Buttigieg 45%, Trump 44%

• Klobuchar 45%, Trump 44%