Mega-Thread: Democratic 2020 Primaries

[Milchshake]

By the way, I guess I missed it, but Biden pledged to pick a woman for VP?

Better be Stacy Abrams. Better not be Kamala Harris.

Harris has a higher national profile.


Either way, Pence would have to cancel the VP debate. "Mother" wont let him stand next to other women alone.

JoeBiden
“Why am I winning? Because people know I’m a Democrat with a capital D. They know I’ll fight for and make lives better for their families.”
The way to think about these debates has always been that Dems are assessing them against the idea of a future debate with Trump. Biden has shown he will aggressively defend himself, the party. He’s going to make Dems more secure in their support for him, not less.

Party politics, how do they work?!?

PS The WINNER of tonight’s debate are the two women who will be named Vice President and a Supreme Court Justice under President Biden. The BernieGaters are really going to *hate* this.
/chef's kiss.

[Rukh]

Harris has a higher national profile.


Either way, Pence would have to cancel the VP debate. "Mother" wont let him stand next to other women alone.

JoeBiden
“Why am I winning? Because people know I’m a Democrat with a capital D. They know I’ll fight for and make lives better for their families.”
The way to think about these debates has always been that Dems are assessing them against the idea of a future debate with Trump. Biden has shown he will aggressively defend himself, the party. He’s going to make Dems more secure in their support for him, not less.

Party politics, how do they work?!?

Biden with that big D energy.

[Vash The Stampede]

Biden looked pretty good, and Sanders looked weaker than people expected.

Progressives need to smell the roses and support Biden already. He's already shifting significantly more to the left as he's just announced his own version of Bernie's free education plan:
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...939666946?s=20

Stop the cult of personality. Stop the sour grapes. Support Biden and end Trump's presidency as a unified left.
But eh who am I kidding, hardcore progressive literally cannot stop malding.

So Joe Biden takes on more Bernie Sanders policies and therefore Bernie Sanders is weaker? Good on Joe but coping ideas from Bernie doesn't make Joe superior. Just more reason to go with Bernie Sanders, because obviously he has the right idea... for Joe Biden to copy.

Lol, what a comment. It's not a friendship. You support the policies that will make the country a better place to live and end the awful presidency right now.

Saying you won't vote for Biden because people are being mean to you is next level immaturity. Cringed hard.

Honestly, with all the craziness with coronavirus I can't see Joe Biden doing well right now. We're pumping Trillions into the wealthy while Medicare for All is still not yet adopted by Joe Biden. The economy is going into a depression from the already terrible recession we've had since 2008, and nothing short of a very progressive candidate is going to fix America. Trump has basically signed away his presidency at this point with how bad the economy is imploding right now, so Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders could easily beat him right now. By November the American people are going to be hungry, sick, in debt, and very angry, and all that will be directed at Trump. They aren't going to be happy seeing Trillions of tax payer money used to bail out the wealthy, when they lose their jobs and homes because Wall street needs to survive. People are going to want a revolution at that point.

[Skroe]

Harris has a higher national profile.


Either way, Pence would have to cancel the VP debate. "Mother" wont let him stand next to other women alone.

Harris delivers to Biden nothing he doesn't have already. California and popularity with liberals on the coast. Trump would be free to largely focus his resources in the six states, with the biggest threat being in 3 of those six (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan)

Abrams would create severe complications for Trump in Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas due to her popularity in the south, with progressives and with African Americans in the region. It would make Trump have to allocate resources where he other wise wouldn't have to. Seriously, make Trump have to work in Texas and Georgia. Winning them isn't likely, but money and manpower spent there is money and manpower not spent in Wisconsin or Florida.

I've said Biden-Abrams would be the most powerful and dangerous to Trump ticket Democrats could produce since late 2018. I firmly believe it. He should offer Abrams pretty much anything she wants, including an implicit deal to just serve for one term.

Regardless, having a woman VP is a canny play for the EXTREMELY important suburban women vote that is crucial to Democrats winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

And I'm going to love Mike Pence being forced to sit at a (debate) table, alone, with a woman other than his wife. That's an added bonus.

- - - Updated - - -

He also pledges to put a Black Woman on the Supreme Court. Missed that too.

[Vash The Stampede]

JoeBiden
“Why am I winning? Because people know I’m a Democrat with a capital D. They know I’ll fight for and make lives better for their families.”

That's funny considering he helped a Republican with a capital R, into office. And you too can get your very own Biden for a mere $200,000, because that's how much he's worth on the open market.

PS The WINNER of tonight’s debate are the two women who will be named Vice President and a Supreme Court Justice under President Biden. The BernieGaters are really going to *hate* this.
/chef's kiss.

Why would we hate this? I would personally hope that Warren is Sander's VP.

[Skroe]

Why would we hate this? I would personally hope that Warren is Sander's VP.

She doesn't give Biden anything he doesn't have already, and her net negatives are too much. People have an opinion of her already. That's a problem. It's also why it won't be her.

And for the record I voted for her in 2018 (she's my Senator), so it's not some anti-Warren thing. It's that she doesn't add to the equation. She excites progressives. Except progressives don't really live in large numbers in the six states that will decide the election. Centrist independents, seniors, suburban women and conservative Democrats do.

[Milchshake]

Bernie called her a liar on national TV.

YEah, i dont think she joins Bernie. Bernie also berned his bridges with AOC.


He still has MArianne and Tulsi!

The Sarandon Effect, all over again.

[Gestopft]

If there's one thing this election has indicated so far, it's that Sanders' policies are more popular than he is. Which is ultimately a good thing for the country.

PS The WINNER of tonight’s debate are the two women who will be named Vice President and a Supreme Court Justice under President Biden. The BernieGaters are really going to *hate* this.
/chef's kiss.

You have some very strange ideas about the people you are trying to bash.

[Vash The Stampede]

She doesn't give Biden anything he doesn't have already, and her net negatives are too much. People have an opinion of her already. That's a problem. It's also why it won't be her.

And for the record I voted for her in 2018 (she's my Senator), so it's not some anti-Warren thing. It's that she doesn't add to the equation. She excites progressives. Except progressives don't really live in large numbers in the six states that will decide the election. Centrist independents, seniors, suburban women and conservative Democrats do.

Centrists, seniors, and conservatives all have a tendency to vote Republican. The strange one is conservative Democrats which is like saying progressive Republicans, which either don't exist or exist in a small shack somewhere in Mississippi. Hillary also appealed to those people and that wasn't enough to win the presidency. Considering that Bernie Sanders has nearly half of Democrat voters, I would say it's ignorant to believe that progressives don't live in large numbers. Unless you think Bernie Sanders has a large amount of suburban women voting for him.

[Kasierith]

Centrists, seniors, and conservatives all have a tendency to vote Republican. The strange one is conservative Democrats which is like saying progressive Republicans, which either don't exist or exist in a small shack somewhere in Mississippi. Hillary also appealed to those people and that wasn't enough to win the presidency. Considering that Bernie Sanders has nearly half of Democrat voters, I would say it's ignorant to believe that progressives don't live in large numbers. Unless you think Bernie Sanders has a large amount of suburban women voting for him.

Clinton barely campaigned in those states period, on any platform. Not to mention she swung dramatically to the left from her start point at the DNC. If there's one single lesson that Biden or Sanders needs to draw from 2016, it is that they need to play to win the election, not waste time in Arizona trying to turn the entire country blue or pander to states that are already in their pocket.

[Milchshake]

Lol Bernie has 30% or less of the Dem voters.

The caucuses dont really represent the party or any real electorate.

[cubby]

God forbid you actually read the posts you're responding to. I mean jesus that's just way too much to expect from anyone in a text-based communication format! Silly me!

Skroe's defense of Biden's misspeaking was that old people misspeak more. I posted from facts that the reason for old people misspeaking more is senility. There's no particular Biden attack here. Bernie and Trump are also old, and therefore also more likely to misspeak more due to senility. After a certain age, your brain doesn't work so well. This sets in faster for some and slower for others.

If Skroe's defense of Biden's misspeaking was due to Biden having a speech impediment, I would have said nothing, because I know that to be true (not that you'd believe I knew that before you said it, but your belief is unnecessary). I don't necessarily agree that's the case, but it's certainly a valid defense.

But you can't defend Biden against "he's going senile" arguments with "old people misspeak more!" because yeah, they do, because of senility.

Try reading what people write more and less REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEding.

You cited your facts? Wow - I guess everyone but you missed those awesome cites from facts. We'll wait while you go check your posts. Or did you forget that Biden has a lifetime stutter?

Joe Biden's Verbal Gaffe's Actually Related to Lifelong Stutter

From the article:

Stuttering is recognized as a disability under the Americans with Disabilities Act, and those affected are often subject to unfavorable, inaccurate cultural perceptions.

"You mean like senility and dementia?"

Exactly. From the article:

Some have been quick to question Biden’s mental fitness, hinting at a possible age-related cognitive decline (he just turned 77 years old), but it’s important to consider that many of those missteps could have been caused by his lifelong struggle with a speech impediment.

Remember - your feels aren't facts. Just keep repeating that to yourself until you understand the difference between facts and opinions.

[Rukh]

Bernie called her a liar on national TV.

YEah, i dont think she joins Bernie. Bernie also berned his bridges with AOC.


He still has MArianne and Tulsi!

The Sarandon Effect, all over again.

How did Sanders burn his bridges with AOC?

[Skroe]

Centrists, seniors, and conservatives all have a tendency to vote Republican. The strange one is conservative Democrats which is like saying progressive Republicans, which either don't exist or exist in a small shack somewhere in Mississippi. Hillary also appealed to those people and that wasn't enough to win the presidency. Considering that Bernie Sanders has nearly half of Democrat voters, I would say it's ignorant to believe that progressives don't live in large numbers. Unless you think Bernie Sanders has a large amount of suburban women voting for him.

No. I said progressives don't live in the six states that matter in large numbers:

Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Florida
Arizona

For like the umpteenth time, any electoral strategy not build around winning 3 of those (or Florida + 1 of those), is not a strategy.

It doesn't matter how many progressives live in California or New York. It's that they don't live in suburban Wisconsin or Arizona or North Carolina in sufficient numbers compared to centrist voters.

Who should Biden logically appeal to? The voters he KNOWS lives there, or voters who don't really live there? I've been saying this for weeks. It is about the six states and everyone else can stay home.

Hillary lost with those people because of intrinsic negatives to her campaign (her), she forgot to campaign in those states, and Russian interference. But that doesn't change the fact that the ONLY avenue to a Democrat winning those states is through Centrist independents, seniors, suburban women and conservative Democrats do.

And by the way, if you want emprical evidence of this... it is these groups, not progressives, that Democrats appealed to in 2018 and it won them the house majority. if Democrats win the same districts they won in 2018 in 2020, they'll win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and the Presidency too. So this is not a hypothetical argument. It's a logical one. Biden should appeal to people who ALREADY VOTED a certain way to vote the same way again.

And for the record, in two of the states of the six that went - North Carolina and Michigan, Biden trounced Sanders.


North Carolina: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-6874.html
Biden beat Sanders by 18.9%, 43% to 24%.

Michigan: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-6835.html
Biden beat sanders by 16.5%, 52.9$ to 36.4$.


In the other states that are coming up, Biden trounces Sanders in all four.

Florida:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-6847.html
This primary is on Tuesday. Biden is up 65.4% to 22.6%, +42.8

Arizona:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-6898.html
This primary is on Tuesday. Biden is up 48% to 25.5%, +22.5

Wisconsin: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-6848.html
This primary is on April 7th. Biden is up 52% to 38.5%, +13.5%

Pennsyvlannia: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-6860.html
This happens April 28th. Biden is up 39.5% to 28%, +11.5%


So no. Bernard Sanders isn't even close to 50% of Democrats and in this crucial 6 states, he is getting annhilated by Biden. These are not close primaries. These reflect Democrats in the states and Democrating-voting independents' preference. And in all of them, Biden is by far the more competitive candidate. It is these voters + other independents who havent voted in the primary, who will decide the general election.

The entire ticket, entire platform must cater to them so they vote in Biden's favor and not in Trump's.

As I've been saying for weeks, large numbers of progressives just don't live in the right places. Sorry. That is why they lack electoral power. If progressives want to be electorally relevant, up and move in large numbers to North Carolina or something.

[cubby]

By the way, I guess I missed it, but Biden pledged to pick a woman for VP?

Better be Stacy Abrams. Better not be Kamala Harris.

Yeah, he did. And that was on national t.v., so you know it's already a done deal. I hope it's Abrams or Warren. Harris would make a fucking awesome AG.

[Vash The Stampede]

Lol Bernie has 30% or less of the Dem voters.

The caucuses dont really represent the party or any real electorate.

Why does Bernie have nearly as many delegates as Joe Biden?

[cubby]

She doesn't give Biden anything he doesn't have already, and her net negatives are too much. People have an opinion of her already. That's a problem. It's also why it won't be her.

And for the record I voted for her in 2018 (she's my Senator), so it's not some anti-Warren thing. It's that she doesn't add to the equation. She excites progressives. Except progressives don't really live in large numbers in the six states that will decide the election. Centrist independents, seniors, suburban women and conservative Democrats do.

One of the reasons I think Abrams might have already been approached by both Biden and Sanders is her reluctance to run for either open Senate seat in Georgia. I can't recall offhand if there were any solid arguments offered by her or her staff for passing, outside of working on voter registration (which she has done before).

Warren either as Senator (and outside chance at Senate Majority Leader if there is a flip) or SecTreas would be interesting.

[Vash The Stampede]

So no. Bernard Sanders isn't even close to 50% of Democrats and in this crucial 6 states, he is getting annhilated by Biden. These are not close primaries. These reflect Democrats in the states and Democrating-voting independents' preference. And in all of them, Biden is by far the more competitive candidate. It is these voters + other independents who havent voted in the primary, who will decide the general election.

In those states sure but, the other states like California and NY it's going to be harder for Joe. Again, when it comes time for Joe vs Trump, who will those people vote for? Will the progressives even vote?

[Milchshake]

Bernie doesnt need a VP pick, because he never intended to win. Bernie was only going for 30%.


All his supporters got grifted by a 1%er going for only 30% lol.

[Skroe]

One of the reasons I think Abrams might have already been approached by both Biden and Sanders is her reluctance to run for either open Senate seat in Georgia. I can't recall offhand if there were any solid arguments offered by her or her staff for passing, outside of working on voter registration (which she has done before).

Warren either as Senator (and outside chance at Senate Majority Leader if there is a flip) or SecTreas would be interesting.

Ever since that, and when she said she'd be perfectly willing to serve as VP, I've had a hunch she's been approached by Biden.

I hope I'm correct. She's formidable.

I think Biden would be wells served too by breaking precedent and name someone popular with the troops - a retired General or admiral (subject to time requirements) - as is would-be Secretary of Defense. Try and make inroads in the youth-military vote in Southern States, particularly Florida and North Carolina. I think Admiral McRaven would be a good choice, but I'm not sure if he's been retired long enough.

I would not extend to it to any other cabinet positions though, as it will just give more targets for the Trump campaign to target. Keeping it to three keeps it straightforward and allows American swing voters to imagine the rest. Naming the guy who lead the operation to kill Osama bin Laden as Secretary of Defense would send a powerful message to rural hick communities about Biden's defense cred. And on top of that he's a guy who could stump for Biden in the South and credibly talk about shopping at Cabela's.

Basically it just needs to be a campaign that foils the cult by making problems around the edge of Trump nation. Because their margin for victory is minuscule. Democrats have very dangerous numbers for them in Wisconsin and a Florida Democratic Party that is the epitome of failure, but a lot has to go right for Trump to win again. We shouldn't forget that. This really needs to be the death-by-a-thousand-cuts approach combined with a few decisive power moves on Biden's part. No fancy shit. No proposing grand plans that confuse voters, who should be presumed to be absolute simpletons who think Al Qaeda is going to invade their small rural Wisconsin town, kill the men and rape their daughters.