Ironhoof Destroyer (Blackhand M) - Potentially another mount broken by personal loot

[Phookah]

It's not broken. It is 1/100, but because you run it with 20 people it makes it a 1/2000 chance to drop for you.

Not how statistics or probability work at all, my dude.

[Prophet June Bug]

Not how statistics or probability work at all, my dude.

Explain it then instead of giving a backhanded comment?

[Raelbo]

Explain it then instead of giving a backhanded comment?

I guess it's a question of how this works with personal loot and whether each person gets an independent roll, or if the drop chance is linked to the kill, independent of the number of players present.

If it's any consolation I think you were spot on and that there is a 1/100 chance that the mount drops, and if it does, is then assigned randomly to someone who doesn't have it yet.

[Prophet June Bug]

I guess it's a question of how this works with personal loot and whether each person gets an independent roll, or if the drop chance is linked to the kill, independent of the number of players present.

If it's any consolation I think you were spot on and that there is a 1/100 chance that the mount drops, and if it does, is then assigned randomly to someone who doesn't have it yet.

Fair enough, personal loot definitely is a meddling factor when it comes to it. I'd seen the mount drop twice before I got it myself after 138 attempts. Haven't heard of or seen a duplicate drop for someone (18-20ppl in group always). I've seen red infernals drop in groups of 10 or less.

Take notes Phookah.

[Zentail]

Except there have, if you bothered to read the blizzard forum post and multiple posts in this thread.

Don't go pretending every mount in the game is broken because the one is. That's incredibly arrogant of you. The fact that people regularly get this mount disproves this whole thread's theory. The fact that absolutely NO ONE got the Azure Drake for who knows how long is a completely different story. One single post of a single person getting the mount proves this whole thread useless and a waste of time. I'm sorry you don't like rare stuff in games.

<snip>

Even 10000 posts on WoWHead (which there is not) of people indicating hundreds of kills without a mount drop is not really indicative of any type of bug when there are still a few million players that these few comments are not accounting for. As mentioned above, you're grasping at literally nothing. Not straws, nothing. Blizzard never once came out and said that mount is 1% drop chance. WoWHead indicates 5%, but it's skewed because of the guaranteed drops back during current-tier raiding. All mount drop percentages are screwed because of when they were guaranteed. You should maybe just live with the fact that this mount could be 0.01% drop chance amounting to needing roughly 10,000 kills to see. You, quite clearly, don't understand statistics enough to be making a thread on it. You grabbed information for the stats, sure, but you didn't grab all the information or consider outside influences such as, I don't know. a 0.01% drop chance mount instead of 1%.

[Schizoide]

Even 10000 posts on WoWHead (which there is not) of people indicating hundreds of kills without a mount drop is not really indicative of any type of bug

You are incorrect. That would absolutely be actionable. Even a couple dozen players would be actionable, if they had dozens of attempts each and not one of them got a single drop.

In this case, some people have said they got a drop, so that's less actionable. But the devs should still do their customers the courtesy of checking and responding with a "working as intended".

[Lei]

The way personal loot behaves is a seedbed for all kinds of bugs. Normal loot just kind of barfs everything out, regardless of the looter. Personal loot has restrictions, background mechanisms. We have ths "thing doesn't drop for me for some reason" issues exactly since personal loot is a thing. And it's so much harder to detect i imagine than with the old fashioned loot.

[Zentail]

You are incorrect. That would absolutely be actionable. Even a couple dozen players would be actionable, if they had dozens of attempts each and not one of them got a single drop.

In this case, some people have said they got a drop, so that's less actionable. But the devs should still do their customers the courtesy of checking and responding with a "working as intended".

Do you know how many man-hours it would take to respond to every reported bug with a "not bugged" post? There are literally millions of things that players think are bugged that are not. Even when Blizzard comes out and says it's not bugged, players insist that it is. It would be a colossal waste of time to attempt to "reassure" players because, most often, they won't believe the reassurance.

[Dipso]

Just try imagine if bugged SoO mount.. jez crap , malygos/blacky only 1 boss and go in and out, but SoO...

[Aeula]

I've been farming that fucker since Legion. I'd be pissed if my years worth of BfA kills were for nothing.

[Azerate]

Even 10000 posts on WoWHead (which there is not) of people indicating hundreds of kills without a mount drop is not really indicative of any type of bug when there are still a few million players that these few comments are not accounting for. As mentioned above, you're grasping at literally nothing. Not straws, nothing. Blizzard never once came out and said that mount is 1% drop chance. WoWHead indicates 5%, but it's skewed because of the guaranteed drops back during current-tier raiding. All mount drop percentages are screwed because of when they were guaranteed. You should maybe just live with the fact that this mount could be 0.01% drop chance amounting to needing roughly 10,000 kills to see. You, quite clearly, don't understand statistics enough to be making a thread on it. You grabbed information for the stats, sure, but you didn't grab all the information or consider outside influences such as, I don't know. a 0.01% drop chance mount instead of 1%.

Look man. Your wrong opinion aside (because there's really no point in arguing with someone who is so sure about his view without having any experience in the field). No one, and certainly not me, is asking to be given the mount or something like that.

I'm just saying that based on my experience, and on the data I've seen, and on opinions of fellow mount farmers, I am quite certain it's bugged, and I believe there's enough proof to state this. Furthermore, we just had a fix to a similar issue in a different raid.

It's enough grounds for Blizz to check, and fix if needed. Your stance is nothing more than blind defense of Blizz at this point.

You are incorrect. That would absolutely be actionable. Even a couple dozen players would be actionable, if they had dozens of attempts each and not one of them got a single drop.

In this case, some people have said they got a drop, so that's less actionable. But the devs should still do their customers the courtesy of checking and responding with a "working as intended".

Basically this. If people spending 100 hours a week doing something tell you it's not working properly, at least looking into it would be a decent idea. Not sure why that is so controversial to some people.

PS.

he fact that absolutely NO ONE got the Azure Drake for who knows how long is a completely different story.

This is:
1) False - we have a documented drop of Azure Drake at an inflated attempt count - here on mmo-c in the other thread.
2) It's not a different story. It's pretty much exactly the same situation.

[Prophet June Bug]

Don't go pretending every mount in the game is broken because the one is. That's incredibly arrogant of you. The fact that people regularly get this mount disproves this whole thread's theory. The fact that absolutely NO ONE got the Azure Drake for who knows how long is a completely different story. One single post of a single person getting the mount proves this whole thread useless and a waste of time. I'm sorry you don't like rare stuff in games.

Throws insult that someone else is arrogant for pointing out a particular mount may be bugged after ample others have voiced similar concerns
Proceeds to twist statement by claiming other person implied every mount when he clearly didn't and conveniently ignores that bugged doesn't immediately imply it never drops for anyone

Ironic.

[Zentail]

Look man. Your wrong opinion aside (because there's really no point in arguing with someone who is so sure about his view without having any experience in the field). No one, and certainly not me, is asking to be given the mount or something like that.

I'm just saying that based on my experience, and on the data I've seen, and on opinions of fellow mount farmers, I am quite certain it's bugged, and I believe there's enough proof to state this. Furthermore, we just had a fix to a similar issue in a different raid.

It's enough grounds for Blizz to check, and fix if needed. Your stance is nothing more than blind defense of Blizz at this point.



Basically this. If people spending 100 hours a week doing something tell you it's not working properly, at least looking into it would be a decent idea. Not sure why that is so controversial to some people.

Throws insult that someone else is arrogant for pointing out a particular mount may be bugged after ample others have voiced similar concerns
Proceeds to twist statement by claiming other person implied every mount when he clearly didn't and conveniently ignores that bugged doesn't immediately imply it never drops for anyone

Ironic.

You guys are both clearly brick walls.

Azerate assumes I don't have experience in a field that I do, making it clear he does not. Assumptions about my profession have nothing to do with the situation, though. Also assumes a slew of other things because why not? I mean, I haven't seen thousands of items drop over my almost 15 years of playing. They must all be bugged as well.

Prophet June Bug, on the other hand, I don't think can read at all. But idk *shrugs* For the record, there is 0 plausible evidence of any sort of bug going on here. It's clearly debunked. Like I said, you not getting a mount doesn't mean BUG BUG OMG BUG. It means you don't get the mount. You know, by that logic, I didn't get a $100,000,000,000 from by 600th scratch ticket. Clearly, the system is bugged and should be looked into. Except I'm assuming you're one of those people that assumes the same logic cannot be used in two different situations based on your responses in this thread. So take from that what you will.

I came into the thread to inform. You've been informed. I'm bowing out.

[Prophet June Bug]

You guys are both clearly brick walls.

Prophet June Bug, on the other hand, I don't think can read at all. But idk *shrugs* For the record, there is 0 plausible evidence of any sort of bug going on here. It's clearly debunked. Like I said, you not getting a mount doesn't mean BUG BUG OMG BUG. It means you don't get the mount. You know, by that logic, I didn't get a $100,000,000,000 from by 600th scratch ticket. Clearly, the system is bugged and should be looked into. Except I'm assuming you're one of those people that assumes the same logic cannot be used in two different situations based on your responses in this thread. So take from that what you will.

I came into the thread to inform. You've been informed. I'm bowing out.

Says the Great Wall of China.

You read "It might be bugged", refuse to actually read on and review the arguments listed, let alone disprove them, and then respond with 0 evidence to back your claims, proceed to call me arrogant whilst continuously being the one to throw shade at me and close it off with stating you've fulfilled your holier-than-thou purpose here and are conveniently plugging your fingers firmly in your ears on the way out.

Lmao this is so precious.

[Sliske]

Anyone had either of the Deathwing mounts drop lately?

Currently sitting at 291 attempts @ Life-binder's Handmaiden and 472 @ Blazing Drake.

For every other mount besides original Karazhan's horse mount, i've got it in under 200 attempts. A lot of mounts i've had duplicates, but these mounts, despite farming them since MOP, i am yet to see either one drop.

[Lei]

You guys are both clearly brick walls.

Azerate assumes I don't have experience in a field that I do, making it clear he does not. Assumptions about my profession have nothing to do with the situation, though. Also assumes a slew of other things because why not? I mean, I haven't seen thousands of items drop over my almost 15 years of playing. They must all be bugged as well.

Prophet June Bug, on the other hand, I don't think can read at all. But idk *shrugs* For the record, there is 0 plausible evidence of any sort of bug going on here. It's clearly debunked. Like I said, you not getting a mount doesn't mean BUG BUG OMG BUG. It means you don't get the mount. You know, by that logic, I didn't get a $100,000,000,000 from by 600th scratch ticket. Clearly, the system is bugged and should be looked into. Except I'm assuming you're one of those people that assumes the same logic cannot be used in two different situations based on your responses in this thread. So take from that what you will.

I came into the thread to inform. You've been informed. I'm bowing out.

How do you collect evidence? At what point something becomes evidence for you? Do you think there is someone at some desk in the wow office that checks every single mount drop with every single patches? they get the evidence from the players. One player can't prove anything maybe, 2 neither, but what about hundreds of players reporting weird things in? How do you think ANY bug surfaces itself and gets resolved? Personal loot adds a whole new level of possible mistakes with how loot works for different groups of players.

[Azerate]

Azerate assumes I don't have experience in a field that I do, making it clear he does not

You provided your 137 dry streak on Kael Thas as your longest mount farming dry streak in your career of playing the game. So no, you don't have experience. At least not one that allows you to have an informed opinion about what constitutes a very unlucky dry streak on a 1% mount.

there is 0 plausible evidence of any sort of bug going on here.

Of course there is. People reporting crazy high attempt counts en-masee in wowhead comments. Many of whom have crazy experience and track record with mount farming.

To get back on track though I kindly ask people who understand the situation and have read this thread to make a bug report in-game, the only way to get it looked at is to make Blizz know, and the more people are doing it, the better. I've also twitted warcraftdevs as suggested above.

[sam86]

forcing personal loot bugged many things, there is no doubt about it, in fact u should assume for any item drop that it is bugged, UNTIL they claim otherwise, because personal loot bugged way too much to consider it 'working as intended'
and blizz have a hobby of ignore old content, the most infamous example is last quest in Vashir where it stayed bugged for entire 3 exp (MoP - Legion) until i literally stopped lvling any more toons to check if it is bugged or not, and i'd bet it is still bugged, that quest that takes 15 min can bug at any minute and repeat it again and enjoy bugged for 2nd or 3rd try before u can make ticket, meaning u waste ~1h just to prove it is bugged

[Raelbo]

@Zentail and @Azerate:

I certainly think it's worth asking the question. Some mounts have been bugged in the past - most notably the Heavenly Onyx Cloud Serpent from Sha of Anger and more recently, apparently, the Malygos mounts. And because of the way RNG works, the only way to get a feeling of whether it's just your luck, or that there is a genuine issue is to put the question out there and see if other people have got the mount.

In the case of the Sha of Anger, it wasn't just a case of a lot of people not getting the mount - that was to be expected. The proof was in the fact that no one could report actually getting it and back it up with an armory link to confirm it.

So while I would agree that a bunch of people farming a 1% mount 500 times and not seeing it drop is a possible sign that something could be amiss, it's not evidence in and of itself until you have a statistically representative sample of the people who have been farming it.

To that end I suspect this mount isn't bugged. We have 3 confirmed reports on the first page of this thread of people who have received it, one definitely during BfA, one after 8.2 and one that might have been Legion. Add to that Zentail's account of seeing multiple in his guild. And I'll add to that: Our guild decided to go get the Blackhand guild achievement on 17 January 2019. The mount dropped. That was after patch 8.1 which broke the Blue/Azure mount.

The danger of a thread like this is that the topic itself causes bias in that people interested in the topic are more likely to be those of us who don't have the mount and thus lead to a skewed idea of how prevalent the "problem" is.

For what it's worth, for a 1% mount the chance is 64% of getting it per 100 kills.
That means 87% for 200 kills, 95% for 300 kills, 98% for 400 kills, 99.3% for 500 kills.

There are still going to be 5 in every 100 000 players who don't see this even after 1 000 kills. And that assumes a 1% drop chance. It's entirely possible that this particular has an intended even lower drop chance.

Either way, like I say, I suspect that this isn't a bug. It's confirmed that the mount does indeed drop, even if the drop chance is lower than expected

[Azerate]

To that end I suspect this mount isn't bugged. We have 3 confirmed reports on the first page of this thread of people who have received it, one definitely during BfA, one after 8.2 and one that might have been Legion.

Your misconception is that the bug has to make it impossible for the mount to drop. This does not have to be the case. Just like with the Malygos mount, there were cases of people getting the mount, one even confirmed on this very forum. The drop rate might be bugged in the sense of it not working under certain circumstances, not every time.

Add to that Zentail's account of seeing multiple in his guild. And I'll add to that: Our guild decided to go get the Blackhand guild achievement on 17 January 2019. The mount dropped. That was after patch 8.1 which broke the Blue/Azure mount.

Zentail showed absolute lack of information on mount farming, and the account of "multiple people getting the mount" in his guild is honestly probably just grasping at straws to show that he has some kind of proof against the evidence posted in this thread. Quite frankly, I don't believe it.

As for the other part - again, "bug that prevents the mount to drop" does not have to mean it prevents it every single time. (What I mentioned above). Also personal loot problems are rumored to be cancelled by going as a group, so if anything you going as a guild and getting the mount to drop might suggest there is some kind of a problem

For what it's worth, for a 1% mount the chance is 64% of getting it per 100 kills.
That means 87% for 200 kills, 95% for 300 kills, 98% for 400 kills, 99.3% for 500 kills.

There are still going to be 5 in every 100 000 players who don't see this even after 1 000 kills. And that assumes a 1% drop chance.

That's theory. Practice and experience gives us certain ranges of attempt counts that we can expect to get the mount within. 300-400 attempt count is already crazy high but still possible. Anything above that is already suspicious. Once we are getting many reports of 600+ or even 800+ counts, we can be pretty sure something is wrong.

PS.

It's entirely possible that this particular has an intended even lower drop chance.

True. This is theoretically possible. However, we have no real reason to believe that (other than the anecodtal data that suggests something is broken which many of you here are writing off as irrelevant). For example Archimonde Mythic mount does not seem to have this problem, and furthermore, future raid mounts (such as Antorus, BoD, ToS) also do not have this issue. It would seem odd for this one mount to be a one-off.